US Presidential Election 2020

Jamiekelly

peddlelies wrote: »

Felt that about O'Rourke and Harris, never Buttigieg though. He's a vet and comes across, at least to me, as genuine and a decent person.

Buttigieg strikes me as a lot of things but genuine is not one of them. Google "Pete Buttigieg and Daryll Boykins" and have a read through a few of the articles. Pete polls lowest among black voters for this reason. He was easily manipulated by openly racist police officers to fire Boykins and they used his most prominent donors as go betweens to put pressure on him which shows how weak and easily swayed he is to financial incentives.

And that lines up with the latest story about Pete not disclosing information on his fundraisers while deriding Trump for not releasing his tax returns. He even point blank said "no" when asked if he would disclose his donors by a journalist only a few days ago. He lost something close to 60K twitter followers in the 2 hours after a video of that went viral and since reversed his stance. All the dems in the december debates hammered him for hosting a fundraiser in Napa Valley where the cost of a bottle of wine was an average of $900. Not exactly man of the people kind of behaviour. Pete is only a contender because he has a handful of things going for him, he's gay, a military vet and a capable speaker. But with essentially near 0% support from minorities and a shaky past with campaign funding he won't be the nominee.

Carcharodon

Bernie is the obvious choice to beat Trump for me, he doesn’t have any skeletons in his closet, is genuine and even those that oppose his views respect the man
The worst choice would be Biden, he is a bit of a relic and would get eaten alive by Trump I think.
My choice would be Tulsi Gabbard, she makes the most sense to me when she speaks, plus the clintons tried to bring her down, always a good sign

peddlelies

Jamiekelly wrote: »

Buttigieg strikes me as a lot of things but genuine is not one of them. Google "Pete Buttigieg and Daryll Boykins" and have a read through a few of the articles. Pete polls lowest among black voters for this reason. He was easily manipulated by openly racist police officers to fire Boykins and they used his most prominent donors as go betweens to put pressure on him which shows how weak and easily swayed he is to financial incentives.

And that lines up with the latest story about Pete not disclosing information on his fundraisers while deriding Trump for not releasing his tax returns. He even point blank said "no" when asked if he would disclose his donors by a journalist only a few days ago. He lost something close to 60K twitter followers in the 2 hours after a video of that went viral and since reversed his stance. All the dems in the december debates hammered him for hosting a fundraiser in Napa Valley where the cost of a bottle of wine was an average of $900. Not exactly man of the people kind of behaviour. Pete is only a contender because he has a handful of things going for him, he's gay, a military vet and a capable speaker. But with essentially near 0% support from minorities and a shaky past with campaign funding he won't be the nominee.

Had no idea about anyone of that, will have to dig abit. Thanks for the info.

eire4

Jamiekelly wrote: »

Buttigieg strikes me as a lot of things but genuine is not one of them. Google "Pete Buttigieg and Daryll Boykins" and have a read through a few of the articles. Pete polls lowest among black voters for this reason. He was easily manipulated by openly racist police officers to fire Boykins and they used his most prominent donors as go betweens to put pressure on him which shows how weak and easily swayed he is to financial incentives.

And that lines up with the latest story about Pete not disclosing information on his fundraisers while deriding Trump for not releasing his tax returns. He even point blank said "no" when asked if he would disclose his donors by a journalist only a few days ago. He lost something close to 60K twitter followers in the 2 hours after a video of that went viral and since reversed his stance. All the dems in the december debates hammered him for hosting a fundraiser in Napa Valley where the cost of a bottle of wine was an average of $900. Not exactly man of the people kind of behaviour. Pete is only a contender because he has a handful of things going for him, he's gay, a military vet and a capable speaker. But with essentially near 0% support from minorities and a shaky past with campaign funding he won't be the nominee.

Interesting. Fits in with the corporate Democrat he is. Last thing the Democrats need is a new young guy with the same old bought and paid for Corporate Democrat mentality that that party leadership and old guard have held for so long now.

Hande hoche!

Castro is out. Imagine Brooker might be next.
https://twitter.com/JulianCastro/status/1212738343588511747

4068ac1elhodqr

Hard to believe Sanders is ahead of Warren in the markets, this may represent some rare value for DN event (Warren will likely be selected).
Even harder to see HC is ahead of someone such as Yang.

pixelburp

It'll be interesting to see where these other candidates' poll numbers go once the field truly narrows; had read that Warren is supposedly many folks' second preference, so may benefit from the shrinking field. Sure does seem like her campaign has itself stalled a little, perhaps Bidens lead finally feeling a little unreachable.

Water John

You would have to consider that no candidate will go to convention with the nomination. The figures could mean a Warren/Sanders deal could be constructed by their delegates. The focus of most of their supporters is not candidate worship but policy change.

AllForIt

Looking at the Dem candidates it looks to me like the only hope of getting rid of Trump is if Oprah runs. Deadly serious about that. She won't though. Warren won't win. Putting up another female candidate against Trump is a big mistake. Yes Oprah is female but she's black and she's not a politician. Neither was Trump of course. Honestly Oprah is the only person that cold possibly beat him in this weird era in American politics. Trump is a dead cert as it stands.

Water John

We'll take that as, your opinion, since you haven't referred to anything that might justify your claim.

eagle eye

Water John wrote:

We'll take that as, your opinion, since you haven't referred to anything that might justify your claim.

He doesn't need to, it's clear as day that the dems are making a mess of this again.
I want Trump out of office as much as any man but I've already given up on it happening.

Brian?

eagle eye wrote: »

He doesn't need to, it's clear as day that the dems are making a mess of this again.
I want Trump out of office as much as any man but I've already given up on it happening.

How are they messing it up exactly? The top 3 Dems are beating Trump in the Rust belt last time I checked.

Water John

But his opinion carries more weight than your facts.

eagle eye

Brian? wrote:

How are they messing it up exactly? The top 3 Dems are beating Trump in the Rust belt last time I checked.

People pay too much attention to polls and don't actually look at the candidates and how they'll do in debates and answering tough questions in the lead up to the election.
None of those three are going to do well in a Presidential race. They are all 70+ in age and while Trump is also 70+ he is the incumbent so it doesn't matter as much.
A good candidate in the 40-55 age group is what was needed but they go with pensioners. History tells you that younger Democrat candidates win Presidential elections. How stupid are these people? I've certainly lost lot of respect for the party over the last six years.

StringerBell

I think the election of Trump has kinda blown a lot of the theories about needing to be able to answer debate questions intelligently, or even coherently tbf.

I'm all for ignoring national polling as it is pretty pointless, the national polling was pretty right last time round too with Clinton winning a wide (ish) victory of the popular vote.

State by state polling does have value though and they are very close right now. You have to make Trump favourite but it is going to be a close election one way or the other.

rossie1977

Coming close to first primaries now

Latest polls nationally

Harvard-Harris, Biden leads by 13 from Sanders
The Hill/Harris, Biden by 12 from Sanders
Economist/YouGov, Biden by 10 from Sanders
Morning Consult, Biden by 11 from Sanders

Looks like only 3 people ie Biden, Sanders or Warren are in with a shout of the nomination as we enter final weeks before first vote. Warren only really hanging on based on most polling.

pixelburp

Warren for vice president maybe? Biden can't repeat the mistakes of Clinton and bring in a milquetoast nonentity of a VP ala 2016, and given the ideological split in the Dems, you'd have to imagine the sop to the harder left would be someone like Warren on the ticket.

Then again, the talent for self destruction means Biden would probably make the same mistake all over again.

eagle eye

So you want a 70+ age team, do you not think it's bad enough having one of them?

pixelburp

eagle eye wrote: »

So you want a 70+ age team, do you not think it's bad enough having one of them?

I don't want Biden for a start but it's not up to me and the needle has barely shifted since the start. He's gotta be a shoe-in at this stage, so the next question is how to reach out to the inevitable disenfranchisement of the left leaning base; therefore Warren, Sanders or anyone left enough and young enough, if age is that important. In this case, it shouldn't be because the above two are effectively left leaning royalty.

Age isn't as important as health, and Warren seems pretty healthy and lucid. In fact I'd presumed her early 60s TBH given how she presents.

4068ac1elhodqr

JoeBiden's latest comment to a crowd Iowa might fail to charm the Irish vote:

Joe Biden tells the audience (for the 2nd time now):

"I may be Irish but I'm not stupid"

https://www.joe.ie/politics/joe-biden-tells-audience-may-irish-im-not-stupid-688643
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/biden-in-hot-water-for-saying-i-may-be-irish-but-im-not-stupid-jxz63vk75
https://www.irishpost.com/news/joe-biden-reportedly-tells-audience-may-irish-im-not-stupid-175064

Stay classy (and stupid) old Joe!

StringerBell

Making a play for the Trump vote surely.

Rjd2

pixelburp wrote: »

I don't want Biden for a start but it's not up to me and the needle has barely shifted since the start. He's gotta be a shoe-in at this stage, so the next question is how to reach out to the inevitable disenfranchisement of the left leaning base; therefore Warren, Sanders or anyone left enough and young enough, if age is that important. In this case, it shouldn't be because the above two are effectively left leaning royalty.

Age isn't as important as health, and Warren seems pretty healthy and lucid. In fact I'd presumed her early 60s TBH given how she presents.

The left aka the Sanders base don't really like Warren that much.

It will probably be someone like Castro, Booker or long shot Harris who gets it,,younger and politically probably closer to Biden than Warren.

Obviously the optics as well.

Professor Moriarty

Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »

JoeBiden's latest comment to a crowd Iowa might fail to charm the Irish vote:

Joe Biden tells the audience (for the 2nd time now):

https://www.joe.ie/politics/joe-biden-tells-audience-may-irish-im-not-stupid-688643
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/biden-in-hot-water-for-saying-i-may-be-irish-but-im-not-stupid-jxz63vk75
https://www.irishpost.com/news/joe-biden-reportedly-tells-audience-may-irish-im-not-stupid-175064

Stay classy (and stupid) old Joe!

Racism.

The Phantom Jipper

Castro has endorsed Warren.

mickdoocey

looks like biden, sanders and warren are favs.
the problem all 3 have is they must be very progressive and socialist in their views to get the ticket but these views will not get them elected president.
i think pelosi knows they have little chance of beating trump in november and she is using the impeachment process which will ultimately fail to try and win the senate back.
then even if trump wins in november and is pres the dems will have both houses and he will be open to another impeachment which this time will succeed

pixelburp

mickdoocey wrote: »

looks like biden, sanders and warren are favs.
the problem all 3 have is they must be very progressive and socialist in their views to get the ticket but these views will not get them elected president.
i think pelosi knows they have little chance of beating trump in november and she is using the impeachment process which will ultimately fail to try and win the senate back.
then even if trump wins in november and is pres the dems will have both houses and he will be open to another impeachment which this time will succeed

This, again? Come on. Biden is NOT progressive and not a socialist, dunno how many more times this needs clarifying; his dominance in the polls is pure name recognition and being one of the more famous & celebrity politicians in America. His policies have been explicitly centrist and he has gone out of his way to position himself thus & as one who reaches across the aisle. He, Sanders and Warren are all seen as beating Trump in polls, Biden the most comfortably. But, he is not a socialist, even by US standards.

PopePalpatine

I hate to say it, but...I'd say it's looking good for Trump after the Soleimaini killing. It'll be like Dubya's reelection, with Trump getting in by getting enough Rust Belters high on jingoism. If Iran attack, the GOP will be all like, "See! This is what the Dems enabled!" If they don't, the GOP can claim that Iran have been cowed into submission.

mickdoocey

pixelburp wrote: »

This, again? Come on. Biden is NOT progressive and not a socialist, dunno how many more times this needs clarifying; his dominance in the polls is pure name recognition and being one of the more famous & celebrity politicians in America. His policies have been explicitly centrist and he has gone out of his way to position himself thus & as one who reaches across the aisle. He, Sanders and Warren are all seen as beating Trump in polls, Biden the most comfortably. But, he is not a socialist, even by US standards.

I did not say he was a socialist.
I said he must be very progressive and socialist in his views to get the ticket, that when he tries to revert to some normality when taking on trump, everything insane he said trying to get the ticket will be used as soundbites to easily defeat him.

his too old anyway, it seems he may have the onset of dementia or something like that. could you imagine him in the debates against trump, it would harrowing to watch.
his time was 2016.

SharpshooterTom

Biden's dominance is due to one thing.

Obama nostalgia.

Although its partially misguided as Obama was popular for his personality/charisma and historic nature of of his candidacy rather than his actual policies IMO, which were fairly milktoast and centrist for the most part, and Joe Biden's lightyears away from Obama on any form of charisma.

A lot of talk about the GOP being cocooned in a cult around Trump, but the democrats are in a bit of a personality cult bind with regards to Obama themselves if we're being honest.

We all know if Michelle Obama had entered the race she would have won this race in a landslide, irrespective of what her policies were, they don't matter.

And when Malia Obama's old enough she will win too if she ran.

eagle eye

And she'd beat Trump too unlike the current candidates.