Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

UPDATE _ Saturday, 7:40 p.m.
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The weak trough moving south managed to stir up a little more warmth than earlier estimated, which is why some places (notably Dublin) have seen a rise in temperatures to about 3-4 C with drizzly showers left over from the earlier snow or sleet in the north. However, most of this activity has now faded out and the colder air will seep back in from the northeast overnight. This may not drop temperatures uniformly in all parts of the country, it will depend on how fast the low cloud layers break up, some places could drop quite fast to about -5 C then more slowly as freezing fog develops. Other places will drop slowly to about -2 C with the freezing fog possible there too, so roads across the country are likely to become more icy again overnight. Eventually, some weak sea-effect streamers of mixed sleet or snow could arrive in the Dublin region and further south, as the winds come in from the NNE overnight.

In the longer term, it appears that tomorrow may not be quite as cold as earlier expected, the most likely range of maximum temperatures would be -2 to +4 C depending on how readily the fog breaks up. Beyond that, however, the models continue to insist on strong northeasterly flow at bitterly cold temperature levels, and despite a few somewhat milder looking days well on into mid-month, the governing circulation features, high near Iceland and lows over Germany and France, do not really shift that much, and there are no signs of the Atlantic roaring back to life, the storm track from the eastern United States is likely to run northeast then north across Newfoundland into the Baffin Island region.

There's quite a storm developing tonight south of Nova Scotia which is about to do a 48-hour loop back to the west, bringing heavy snow to New England tomorrow. Some parts of Maine could see over 20 inches of snow! Boston MA is likely to see more like 10-12 inches, but with strong winds blowing it around. There are also problems for coastal flooding with the continual northeast winds piling up very high water levels in Cape Cod Bay. Meanwhile here today, more of the rain and 10 C, if I could shift it over your way, I would do it quite gladly because I miss seeing the sun.

Sunday, 3 January, 2009
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TODAY will continue quite cold with a locally gusty east wind, a few heavier snow showers moving inland around Dublin to reach points as far west as central Ireland at times, but with quite variable accumulations of 2-7 cms possible. Some of these showers could be sleety near the coast. Otherwise, the day should produce some sunshine but with rather thick higher cloud layers covering the south (this is the only actual result of that sleet/rain storm that the models wanted to produce a few days ago, it moved further south). Winds will be ENE 20-35 mph adding quite a chill to daytime highs that may vary from -1 C inland, to +5 C near the east coast (but it will feel colder).

TONIGHT and MONDAY will continue partly cloudy, cold and breezy, but any snow should be rather light and localized. The morning lows will be in the range of -8 to -2 C and the afternoon highs around -1 to +4 C. There is worse to come ...

TUESDAY, expect a stronger and even colder northeast wind (25-45 mph) bringing in moderate to heavy snow showers especially in Ulster and the Leinster coast. Morning lows will be -4 to -1 C and afternoon highs near zero C. Snowfalls of about 5-15 cms are possible (this to be updated).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY will be a very cold period with widespread snow in cold northeast winds of 25-45 mph. Temperatures will be severely below normal especially considering the wind chill and snow, ranging from -8 to -2 C on average (possibly a bit higher near the east coast but windier there).

This cold spell could continue at almost these levels for several more days to come, as the longer range models do little more than try to return this flow to a default position without really changing the shape of the circulation, an unbroken stream of cold air from Scandinavia. The best one could expect is a moderation of a few degrees but that could keep being postponed in reality.

More updates as needed, I would be preparing for the severe conditions by using the relatively hospitable weather today and Monday (and in some parts that may seem like thin fare indeed).

Monday, 4 January, 2010
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With a possible snow event due tonight and Tuesday, and yours truly likely to be off duty through the day, I would strongly advise anyone seeking updates to check in with the current discussion thread, it is bound to be an active place today. I will be aiming to update my forecast this evening around 6-7 p.m.

TODAY will start out quite icy especially where light snow or hail has already fallen, such as Dublin and parts of Ulster. The snow in Ulster, amounting to 1-2 cms will be moving slowly south and could become a bit heavier at times, while the activity near Dublin will probably tend to die out as winds turn more to the west ahead of this northern trough. Other parts of Ireland will be clear to partly cloudy with local freezing fog for the rest of the morning and may see an increase in cloud but only very light and widely scattered flurries. Eventually it could warm to about -1 to +2 C under variable amounts of cloud and a light northerly wind backing to westerly 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT another trough will develop across the north, this time bringing heavier amounts of snow (probably mixed with sleet near the coast), and this snow is likely to move south through most of the country except for the south coast, before sunrise, with lows ahead of the snowfall falling to -7 to -4 C before rising during the snowfall to about -2 C. Winds tonight will turn more northerly and eventually NNE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY will see further snowfall, heavy at times in eastern and northern counties. Amounts will be quite variable but may range from 3 to 15 cms. Some places on the west and south coast may escape more than a few light flurries. It will be quite cold, the streamers near the east coast may bring in some above-freezing temperatures at times, but elsewhere highs will only reach about -2 to zero C. Winds will be NE 20-35 mph adding significant chill. Roads are likely to be very icy especially on hills.

WEDNESDAY will bring further snowfall and gusty NE winds with a temperature range from about -5 to -1 C. Any places that manage to clear in the early morning could fall to -8 C or lower. The snowfall amounts seen on Tuesday may be matched or even exceeded on Wednesday (5-20 cms possible, although not everyone will see more than a cm or two). The daytime hours for most will be more cloudy than sunny but sunshine will increase towards the west coast.

THURSDAY is likely to see similar conditions although not as windy, and therefore perhaps not quite as much snowfall, 1-3 cms more on average. This will leave some parts of the east, notably the higher ground in Dublin and Wicklow, buried in about a foot or more of new snow by the end of the week. I'm thinking that on average, lower portions of the east may see half that much in total and other parts of the country except Ulster may see a few inches here and there, but Ulster will have some higher areas seeing about a foot as well. The temperature range on Thursday is likely to be -9 to -2 C on average (except mins -5 C in more built up parts of Dublin and possibly -2 near the coast, similar variations around other large towns and cities).

FRIDAY will continue cold and mostly dry but with some chance of localized snowfalls. With all the fresh snowfall, this may be the day recording some of the lowest overnight lows, but that can be addressed later this week, the potential exists for a -12 C reading somewhere in central Ireland.

THE OUTLOOK is for more settled, dry and cold weather, and possibly a very slight and gradual warming trend, although as I've indicated before, I don't trust these model promises when there's no strong and obvious signal for them. The weekend could also have some very cold overnight readings especially if the ECM model is correct in placing a 1030 mb high near Donegal.

Sunday in my enclave of warmth proved to be the warmest day in about a month, with a high near 11 C under mostly cloudy skies, although the sun was dimly visible at mid-day. I feel almost guilty mentioning this, and yet we have the Winter Olympics. Strange, very strange. :cool:

Tuesday, 5 January, 2010
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TODAY, mixed showers of snow and sleet will be dying out over the southeast this morning, with other scattered showers of sleet or snow coming ashore in Donegal and western Mayo in a brisk N-NE wind developing there. In between, most places will have a cloudy to partly cloudy morning with colder air seeping in from a NNE direction, then watch for snow to develop from the Irish Sea in the eastern Ulster, Meath, Dublin and Wicklow regions by mid-day to afternoon. The snow streamers will tend to hug the coast and the Wicklow mountains at first (due to wind direction) but may begin to extend further inland by late afternoon and evening. These have the potential to drop 5-10 cms of snow fairly quickly, so road travel may be disrupted in a few locations. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the country will remain dry and cold with the risk of a few heavier snow showers in Connacht and Ulster. Highs today will be held down to this morning's readings, in other words, it won't get much warmer than you see at first light (-1 to +2) except in a few outer west coast locations where it could reach +5 C.

TONIGHT will see the east and southeast under a snowfall watch (the forum will be busy, in other words) and it's quite possible that heavy snow could either develop or continue from the afternoon there, giving 5-10 cms locally. Winds across the country will be increasing due to low pressure development in southern England, to reach NE 20-40 mph. There could be outbreaks of snow on a wider scale as sea-effect streamers make better progress inland to cover much of eastern and southern counties. It will be bitterly cold with temperatures falling to about -3 C in the snow and -7 C in any clearer districts outside the snowfall.

WEDNESDAY will see further snow in the southeast on gusty NE winds 20-40 mph (Wicklow and Wexford could see gusts to 50 mph). The rest of the country will have scattered snow showers, some sunny breaks, and bitterly cold highs of about -2 C or lower inland. Not that many will try going up any hills or mountains, but conditions near summits will be quite arctic, winds NE 30-50 mph, blowing snow and temperatures near -8 C.

THURSDAY will see less windy conditions, but a continuation of the bitter cold and some leftover snow showers still mostly in the east and southeast but scattered around northern and western coastal areas as well. Lows will be generally -8 to -5 C and highs around -1 C. Some long spells of sunshine may develop in the central counties.

FRIDAY and the WEEKEND are likely to bring even colder temperatures especially at night as higher pressure develops near Ireland to the north, and therefore we could be seeing lows down in the -12 C range in some places, and highs struggling to get past -3 C, although with more sunshine than during the week (unless there are patches of persistent freezing fog or low cloud).

The indications for any substantial warming trend are mixed and not very encouraging but I would say there may be some thawing days before January comes to an end, however, there may be a long spell of bitter cold first.

Monday here was a rather mild and showery day with a high near 10 C.

In any case, patience if you're a snow lover, the best conditions are probably going to develop after mid-day and last through much of tonight and tomorrow.

Seriously, we have piles of it around here that we're not using. It has snowed once here all winter (last year, a month of heavy snow from about 10 Dec to 15 Jan). Here's my winter driving tip -- don't.

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 1155h
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Heavy snow showers are now being reported in many parts of the northwest, especially Donegal, Sligo and Mayo, and could be moving further south later today; snowfalls are probably going to be in the 3-7 cm range locally.

Snow streamers just offshore from Dublin to Wexford are quite likely to drift ashore mid-afternoon to evening, and there could be a period of heavier snowfall in southeastern counties overnight and Wednesday morning in association with strong low pressure being indicated to form tonight over southwest England. This will turn the winds from the current NNW to N direction, to NNE then NE and bring this snow onto land, also, the winds will increase as the gradient develops around the low.

Snowfalls of 10-20 cms are possible in all parts of southeast Ireland in this period, but especially in east-facing higher parts of Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford. Although few people will see it, even heavier snowfalls will probably fall on higher summits in the area. Winds will increase to NE 20-40 mph and even stronger at times near Wexford and Rosslare.

As always, check the active threads for further updates -- I am checking out for a while (0400 where I am) -- confidence on this southeast snow is moderate rather than high just because of the model uncertainty, if the models have this development right, then I feel that the snow has to follow.

Thanks, Tactical, but I will own up to being a little eager to bring snow to southeast Ireland the past 24 hours, it is certainly starting to snow along the Dublin to Wexford coast tonight, and may eventually get fairly heavy in places as winds veer from NNE to ENE and colder air streams across the Irish Sea from snow-covered northern England.

Otherwise, the general plan remains about the same, very cold away from coasts exposed to an onshore wind (like much of Ulster tonight), mostly dry but with snow likely to hit parts of the southeast and eastern Ulster, leftover flurries making it some distance through the central counties before dying out, and some lows near -7 C although with the stronger winds and cloud edging closer, temps may rise rather than fall after 0300h.

Tomorrow looks snowy in the southeast, and there may be a few heavy bursts of snow elsewhere in a mostly dry, cloudy to partly cloudy NE flow.

Thursday we're tracking a new disturbance from the far north that could drop 1-3 cms of snow here and there in Connacht mostly, but into Kerry and west Cork later, possibly. Winds will back to NNW for a while, it will stay quite cold, then clearing seems likely late Thursday to set up a very cold morning on Friday.

Lighter winds Friday with some sunshine, possibly a milder feel in some western counties as the upper support relaxes slightly for a day ... like +3 C might feel mild at this point ... then colder again on the weekend. All nights through this stretch likely to be quite cold wherever it clears up (-10 or lower possibly). The prospects for the following week, about the same regime of occasional stronger northeast winds with local snow, and otherwise, dry and very cold still.

We're having a dry, mild day here, about 9 or 10 C outside.

Yes, Darwin, it will be survival of the fittest (sorry) ... I posted about this on the million-page thread, thinking there will be a band of 1-3 cm snowfalls running north to south from about Fermanagh to Laois ahead of a shallow warm front that could bring sleet and drizzly light rain to western counties, as somewhat warmer air is trying to push into western Ireland from almost the due northerly direction. With this depth of cold air stacked up to meet it, the milder stuff won't make it that far east, I feel, and so the frontal zone will be set up in the western third of the country, with the central to east-central counties receiving any benefits in the form of snow. Could be a rather misty and foggy sort of snow, there would not be a strong wind with it, and temperatures close to -1 or zero C, rising to near +4 on the west coast.

Also, as SA pointed out, some chance of accumulating snows returning to the southeast on the weekend. Stay tuned. I'm off to bed here (again).

UPDATE _ Wednesday 1:15 pm
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The east coast continues to be hit by snow streamers with some patches of hail, sleet and even rain (these more likely near the shore and at lowest elevations, also the urban heat island of central Dublin would be a factor) ... radar depicts some heavier bands that might be blizzard-like at times, and contain thunder. Snow pellets are quite possible too, these are not as icy as hail but look like small peppermints, or maybe not so small sometimes. These are a sign of heavy snowfall rates nearby.

In any case, all of this streamer activity is getting so well organized that it might develop into a west-moving trough having a life cycle of about 3-6 hours before it runs out of moisture inland, so while some coastal areas see 5-15 cms of snow from the complex, inland southeast counties like Kildare, Laois and Carlow could see 1-4 cms if the band holds together, and there could be traces of snow seen further west and into Waterford as well.

In a worst (or best) case scenario, this trough could hold together and just become the focus for Thursday's frontal snowfall event when it reaches central Ireland later this evening (if it can hold together that long).

Eventually, the coastal snow streamers should begin to dissipate but that may not be until 4 to 7 p.m. as they appear quite robust (in stark contrast to yours truly, who will now grab a power nap).

If you're seeking updates this afternoon, check the discussion thread in this forum.

Thursday, 7 January, 2010
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TODAY will become cloudy with outbreaks of light snow in many areas by late morning, lasting through the afternoon and evening. Near the west coast, the snow may be mixed with sleet or freezing drizzle. Snowfall amounts will be quite variable and 4-6 cms at most, that coming in a zone inland from the west coast towards the centre of Ireland (north to south). In the east, any snow is likely to come mainly as very light flurries except where one or two streamers turn inland by late afternoon (this more likely Bray south to Wexford).

Highs today will be generally -2 to +2 C but could reach +5 C near the outer west coast. Once the light snow begins, it will turn misty and rather foggy, and winds will generally be quite light, from a generally NW direction at first, but with some backing to SW along the west coast, while a light east wind may develop in the east by mid-afternoon.

Watch for updates as this situation is admittedly rather tricky to forecast.

TONIGHT any light snow should gradually end and there may be clearing after midnight, leading to more bitterly cold low temperatures and freezing fog; the lows will depend on how much clearing develops, and could range from about -4 C to -10 C.

FRIDAY will feature light winds, wintry sunshine after any fog dissipates (if it does) and coastal flurries in the southeast, probably not very heavy. Highs will range from -3 to +2 C.

SATURDAY is also looking crisp and very cold, especially the early morning lows when it could be down to -15 to -12 C in some snow-covered rural areas, and -7 C more widely. The day will feature light northeast winds, the slight chance of a flurry near the east coast, and highs of -3 to +2 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY will bring stronger east winds, still very cold weather in place, and a renewed risk of heavier snow near the south and east coasts, with winds E 20-40 mph adding quite a chill to the temperatures in roughly the same range as Saturday (lows -15 to -5 C, highs -2 to +3 C).

After that, there may be a very slight moderation of temperatures, but I am concerned that the models may be overdoing this so I am going to suggest a risk of snow continuing despite a narrower temperature range like -4 to +4 C, as winds continue fairly strong ESE 15-35 mph.

Meanwhile, Wednesday here was a mild and overcast day with a high near 7 C.

As always, watch for updates and join the discussion in the main forum threads.

UPDATE _ Thursday, 6 p.m.
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Today's weak system has proven to be so weak that it could barely muster some light drizzle or wet snow over hilly parts of Donegal and Mayo, and it doesn't look as though it will do much more than this as it slides on south. It is also running a few hours behind (perhaps due to the icy roads?)

More of an update on Sunday's snowfall potential later or tomorrow morning, I am concerned about mixing with drizzle or sleet as the main limiting factor rather than will it or won't it happen at all.

Friday, 8 January, 2010
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TODAY will be dry and cold with some sunshine despite a fair amount of low cloud left over from freezing fog this morning. In a very light easterly wind flow, some flurries could form near the coast from Dublin south to Wexford, but they may only affect the immediate shoreline. Highs today will struggle to reach -1 C in some inland areas, and +2 C about the highest.

TONIGHT will be back to clear, very cold conditions with more freezing fog developing. Lows could drop exceptionally cold if it stays clear, with the recent fresh snow cover. Some places could be well below -10 C but we'll say an average near -8 C.

SATURDAY will begin to see some easterly winds developing but with a rather slack gradient over Ireland, there may still not be much snow except possibly in the far southeast corner (in other words, Wexford and south Wicklow). Even there, I'm not too sure if the wind will be strong enough yet. With some sunny intervals and patchy low cloud, the highs for the day will be about -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY there is a somewhat better chance of snow, but still don't expect too much inland from the southeast coast where it might amount to 3-5 cms in places. While parts of England start seeing heavy snow due to stronger east winds there, Ireland won't necessarily be feeling the gradient until Sunday night into Monday. The temperature range on Sunday is probably going to remain about the same, lows of -15 to -8 C and highs near zero C.

MONDAY seems to be "the day" for a possible snowfall event but temperatures may become rather marginal in coastal areas, so at this point, three days out, I am inclined to say a mixture of rain, sleet and snow spreading fairly extensively through at least the southern half of the country, on strong ESE winds 20-40 mph, and temperatures possibly a little above freezing in many places, 3-5 C coastal, 1-3 C inland (after an overnight low in the -8 to -3 C range).

TUESDAY has me concerned because of the risk of sleet or freezing rain as milder air will definitely be coming in aloft, but possibly not so much near the ground. Temperatures are likely to be in the 0 to 4 C range with this messy mix and winds will continue rather strong from the ESE at 20-30 mph.

LATER in the week, winds may not be as strong at times and it could become very foggy as snow will likely be slowly melting in a lot of places, with additional drizzle or light rain possible, but with any sort of minor changes to the models, we could still be talking about further snowfalls especially in the north and on higher ground. The cold spell won't likely end with a sudden change to milder, but a very gradual and therefore messy change that will keep some higher rural roadways very slippery even if rain replaces snow.

Today here, actually I am trying to remember, that's how boring the weather has become here in a flat nothing sort of weather pattern. Good job I have this more interesting Irish and UK weather to look at! (our high was about 5 C with light rain actually).

My confidence on events from Sunday to Tuesday is not very high, I should mention, I am taking a sort of middle course between two rather different outcomes that I could imagine, namely, a lot of snow and strong winds, or, a rather disappointing meltdown in fog and light rain. So be prepared for almost anything beyond Saturday.

Saturday, 9 January, 2010
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The long spell of wintry weather is about to have an interruption. However, it's going to come slowly, in stages, and then it won't necessarily fully change the weather back to a more normal mild spell. Also, there will be further snow and cold east winds before any moderation sets in, most likely Monday and Tuesday. As I won't have any opportunity to update this forecast until evening, check the latest thinking on the other threads in the forum (or perhaps on this thread if someone posts new forecast information).

TODAY will continue very cold with increasing cloud spreading from the east, followed by scattered outbreaks of snow, mostly confined to east coast counties where it could bring 5-10 cms locally, but with some lighter snow spilling further west. Some of this snow could become mixed with sleet near the southeast coast. Winds will be picking up gradually this morning to reach ENE 10-20 mph by mid-day and afternoon. Highs today will range from -3 C well inland to +1 C near the east and south coasts.

TONIGHT will continue cloudy and cold (although with the cloud, not as cold as past few nights) with periods of snow mixed in places with freezing drizzle. Roads are likely to become very poor where not extensively gritted. Winds will continue at E 10-20 mph and snowfalls of 3-5 cms may become fairly widespread away from the west coast where only trace amounts are likely. Lows overnight will be -4 to -1 C.

SUNDAY will see bursts of heavier snow at times, 5-15 cms potential for the eastern half of the country, 2-5 cms for the western half. This could be mixed with freezing drizzle, and by late afternoon or evening, it could be turning to sleet near the east and south coasts. Highs for the day will end up near zero to +3 C. Winds will continue ENE 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT, expect snow to continue inland and especially northern counties, while the falling mix will be mainly sleet or even a cold rain near the south and southeast coasts. Narrow zones of freezing rain are likely inland from the milder coasts. Temperatures will be steady or slowing rising from about zero to +3 C. Winds will be stronger at E 20-35 mph.

MONDAY will bring a real mess in many places -- some of the snow from earlier and previous to today will be slowly melting, as a steady cold rain falls, mixing with sleet inland, but still falling as snow in some northern and higher locations. Winds will become ESE 20-40 mph, and there will be fog from a very low cloud ceiling. The net effect of all this will be a sloppy mess with urban meltwater being ponded by slush and snowbanks here and there, while poorly drained rural and suburban areas could see flooding from stream overflow (especially near heavy snowfall areas from earlier on). Temperatures will be rising slowly from about +2 to about +5 C and winds SE 20-40 mph. In many ways, it would be better if it stayed cold and kept snowing, so we'll have to hope that's the actual outcome, but this is my call at this distance (subject to revision of course).

TUESDAY is looking even milder and there could be a general thaw and widespread flooding with periods of rain and strong SE winds developing, temperatures between +5 and +8 C in the south, although only +2 to +4 C in the north where conditions will be more like described above for Monday.

LATER in the week, I see signs of the colder air, never driven too far away from Ireland, will be seeping back in as the temporary breakdown fades, and so one might expect foggy conditions, a chilly damp +2 C sort of temperature regime, and eventually a return to frosts at night and chilly daytime readings. This pattern could eventually reload for another round of wintry weather despite any thaw that takes place.

Friday here was mild with occasional rain, temps near 8 C.

:eek: