Share Picks 2018

Underground · 12-01-2018 1:34pm

cute geoge wrote: »

Why are glanbia taking such a hammering lately????

I don't know to be honest, it's taken a hammering over the last year. Even since I bought them this morning at €13.59 they've gone down again. I'm gambling on either the share price recovering to around the €16 mark or Glanbia being subject to an acquistion.

lucky john · 12-01-2018 4:54pm

cute geoge wrote: »

Why are glanbia taking such a hammering lately????

The company hasn't done anything wrong that i can see. A lot of the growth has been in the US so maybe the Euro strengthening has a bit to do with it. The markets are pretty high right now so if this is trending down for no real reason I'm inclined to wait until later in the year to get back in.

Lash_Alert · 13-01-2018 10:21am

Any thoughts on shire? Been holding a while but seems market uncertainty around this company split has people worried. Seriously undervalued in my eyes

jim_bull · 13-01-2018 12:18pm

lucky john wrote: »

The company hasn't done anything wrong that i can see. A lot of the growth has been in the US so maybe the Euro strengthening has a bit to do with it. The markets are pretty high right now so if this is trending down for no real reason I'm inclined to wait until later in the year to get back in.

it ( and kerry ) has been very expensive for years , the one area they have high margin ( sports drinks ) is suffering due to the weak dollar and increased competition

i bought some two days ago but could see it dropping another euro easily , still think its a safe hold long term , dividend is very small however

Wombatman · 15-01-2018 11:30am

Thanks for Nzuri Op. Solid pick.

Tencent Holdings (KYG875721634 Frankfurt) where good for me last year. Going to stick with them this year. Epic games going well with Fortnight with a couple in the pipeline and a linkup with Lego just announced.

neris · 15-01-2018 7:17pm

Guy on Newstalk markets slot this morning before 7am saying the US markets now away over valued and while a crash isn't imminent one may be due and there is better value top be had in some smaller under valued euro markets and treasuries.

FernandoTorres · 17-01-2018 8:55am

My top picks are PLS, AJM and CLQ on the ASX. All on sale at the moment after taking a bit of a pounding the last couple of weeks. I've been on them for a couple of years now and am a medium to long term holder. They could fall a bit more but I reckon they'll be well up by July again.

Keeping an eye on a few of the other Cobalt producers but I'm put off by the Congo thing. Africa is a basketcase do doesn't usually fall onto my radar but there's certainly no doubting the size of the resources there.

17-01-2018 11:47pm

Versarien PLC

Currently £0.9140 ........... was way lower until 3 months ago and has only just recently risen very sharply.

Could well drop significantly again and I expect it to but I reckon the potential upside is huge if not quite exponential.

This crowd are a materials company "Versarien utilises proprietary technology to create innovative new engineering solutions that are capable of having a game-changing impact on a broad variety of industry sectors"

They are in bed with some Chinese folk who aren't slow to invest in manufacturing facilities etc.

I see this as a Tesla type share ........... huge growth based on feck know what or why :pac:

LG1234 · 18-01-2018 12:44pm

Good discount on PLS and Taw at the moment. I've a few quid there to invest think Taw probably has more scope for larger increases

paulers06 · 18-01-2018 7:39pm

Have also been looking at PLS. Have a few quid in TAW and fewer quid in VIC. Will look at buying PLS or more TAW in another week or so if price is still good.

Cute Hoor · 18-01-2018 11:40pm

b4bmm wrote: »

All I know is irish brokers are a total rip off compared to peers internationally. At least there were when I checked last a few years ago. But what else would you expect. Others here can comment better than me regarding irish costs but for my Australian brokerage you pay trade fee of $20 up to $10,000 trade value $30 up to $20,000 trade value and so on from there.

Interactive Brokers charge .08% (min $6AUD) for AUD trades so a $10,000 trade would cost $8AUD, $20,000 would cost $16AUD etc

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 19-01-2018 2:11pm

Will try and get in on PLS and TAW more also but I am expecting them to pull back more, so will wait. Ryanair on the up.

LG1234 · 19-01-2018 7:52pm

Logged on to degiro last night expecting my bank transfer to have gone through but it hadn't. Looking at PLS at 93cent and not being able to buy was extremely frustrating. Back to 99cent now and I can't see it dropping back again.

Got Ryanair at 14.80 last month so very happy with the increases.

evolving_doors · 20-01-2018 12:49am

LG1234 wrote: »

Logged on to degiro last night expecting my bank transfer to have gone through but it hadn't. Looking at PLS at 93cent and not being able to buy was extremely frustrating. Back to 99cent now and I can't see it dropping back again.

Got Ryanair at 14.80 last month so very happy with the increases.

trustly option ?

ctomas · 21-01-2018 1:11pm

Hi folks, I.was looking into shares of Dominos and there seems to be 3 options to purchase. 1 the main US company 2 Uk company 3 Aussie company.
There are differences between all, they have rights in different areas and it seems the Aussie one has the best growth and lowest debt. Anyone have any info or interest in this stock?

neris · 22-01-2018 10:35am

I think the uk listing is the master franchisee for the UK and related to sales in the uk (and possibly ireland) only and not Dominos globally. The head of Dominos is rumored to be on the list of candidates to take over the Chipotle mexican restaurant chain in the states, when they went into dominos the share price was around €30 and they got it up to over €150 within a few years.

ctomas · 22-01-2018 5:23pm

Yea, chipotle is another option, they seem to have doubled their store count in the last few years but halved the share price. They cant seem to catch a break but food is good from what I remember!

neris · 22-01-2018 6:04pm

ctomas wrote: »

Yea, chipotle is another option, they seem to have doubled their store count in the last few years but halved the share price. They cant seem to catch a break but food is good from what I remember!

a few cases of bad food poisoning across a chain tends to hammer a food brand and its share price.

drunkmonkey · 22-01-2018 10:16pm

Going to call Hive Blockchain Technology as a 2018 Share pick, been invested in this since last year. Earning are due end of February, it's been trading sideways the last few months with a lot of share dilution and shares in lock up becoming free trading.
It's been listed in 2 new ETF's with a heavy basket rating in them, it's listed with IBM, Microsoft, Nvidia, Intel etc and this company hasn't released any earning but it's next 2 earning reports will be stellar.
Currently trading around 3.20 Canadian dollars. I'm hoping this doubles or quadruples by March with a lot higher expectation for Q3.

Blok ETF listings https://amplifyetfs.com/blok-holdings

FT https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/summary?s=HIVE:CVE

Old analysis doesn't take into account rise in the price of ETH and new Swedish mine now online mining bitcoin https://medium.com/@blockxcapital/hive-blockchain-technologies-ltd-hive-the-base-case-for-268-upside-596a695b9331

JaimeLannister · 23-01-2018 9:53am

Presume you can't buy BLOK etf using an Irish broker now? DeGiro? Do you mind me asking who you buy it through?

JaimeLannister · 23-01-2018 9:55am

Ah sorry just re-read and seen you are talking about Hive as opposed to the ETF!

drunkmonkey · 23-01-2018 4:25pm

JaimeLannister wrote: »

Presume you can't buy BLOK etf using an Irish broker now? DeGiro? Do you mind me asking who you buy it through?

I buy Hive through Degiro, no don't think you can buy an ETF here anymore. Think the underlying stocks will out perform the ETT anyway but it's being doing ok volume and price wise since launch last week.

I'd love for someone to work out possible revenues based on Hash rate etc like the article I linked to, just blindly it's at least 4x that price target, $30-$50 per share come march. Will be interesting to see what happens but the current price will be a distant memory by then I'm betting.

Wombatman · 23-01-2018 5:12pm

Nice boost to Tawana today.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 23-01-2018 5:53pm

? Down over 15% in the last week.

Wombatman wrote: »

Nice boost to Tawana today.

Bought in again to Friday Night Inc on the dip. Nice jump today already.

drunkmonkey · 23-01-2018 6:01pm

Yea just been watching it, bought more hive yesterday and spent the little I'd left over on some more Friday Night..

drunkmonkey · 23-01-2018 10:35pm

Lorelei Fancy Lifeguard wrote: »

Bought in again to Friday Night Inc on the dip. Nice jump today already.

Well Moose finished up 20.48% today, what's tomorrow's strategy, sell and wait for the dip:)

OwlsZat · 24-01-2018 4:49pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Yea just been watching it, bought more hive yesterday and spent the little I'd left over on some more Friday Night..

What has you so convinced on Hive being a winner?

drunkmonkey · 24-01-2018 4:58pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

What has you so convinced on Hive being a winner?

Because of the amount of money it's making per day, We only have results for the last 12 days of September (Q2 financials). In this first 12 days it made $170,819 and a mining margin of $112,959.
Look at the price of ETH on the 1st or Sept and ETH price now and tell me how much there making a day just on mining.
That article I linked to above is worth 10 minutes of your time.

OwlsZat · 24-01-2018 5:17pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

OwlsZat wrote: »

What has you so convinced on Hive being a winner?

Because of the amount of money it's making per day, We only have results for the last 12 days of September (Q2 financials). In this first 12 days it made $170,819 and a mining margin of $112,959.
Look at the price of ETH on the 1st or Sept and ETH price now and tell me how much there making a day just on mining.
That article I linked to above is worth 10 minutes of your time.

Sorry didn't see that. I'll certainly give it a read. Thanks for the heads up!

Thargor · 24-01-2018 11:37pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Look at the price of ETH on the 1st or Sept and ETH price now and tell me how much there making a day just on mining.
That article I linked to above is worth 10 minutes of your time.

But again if ETH tanks they will tank and their gains arent a fraction of ETHs gains in that time, nowhere near, it still seems like all the risk for none of the reward.

drunkmonkey · 24-01-2018 11:59pm

Thargor wrote: »

But again if ETH tanks they will tank and their gains arent a fraction of ETHs gains in that time, nowhere near, it still seems like all the risk for none of the reward.

Why aren't their gains a fraction of the ETH gains there mining and hoarding at a fraction of the price people are paying for it. They made 66% margin in their first 12 days.
Did you read the analysis I linked to above in my first post would like your take on it.
I see the bullish estimate being blown out of the water but you probably have a better idea if this mining side of it stands up to scrutiny.
Current price of ETH probably puts the share price around $30.
The price has never recovered since the early release of shares from lockup. Think it'll be back to $6 before earnings and then rocket.
(All based on the crypto marker not imploding in the next 5 weeks)

Prezatch · 25-01-2018 11:00pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why aren't their gains a fraction of the ETH gains there mining and hoarding at a fraction of the price people are paying for it. They made 66% margin in their first 12 days.
Did you read the analysis I linked to above in my first post would like your take on it.
I see the bullish estimate being blown out of the water but you probably have a better idea if this mining side of it stands up to scrutiny.
Current price of ETH probably puts the share price around $30.
The price has never recovered since the early release of shares from lockup. Think it'll be back to $6 before earnings and then rocket.
(All based on the crypto marker not imploding in the next 5 weeks)

Seems odd that investors aren't jumping all over it going by their margins

drunkmonkey · 26-01-2018 1:20pm

Prezatch wrote: »

Seems odd that investors aren't jumping all over it going by their margins

From my own calcs, I know ETH has risen by 400% since they released their first 12 days earnings end of september. That means there generating 74,174 in revenue daily with 66% margin giving (54,695).
We also know that is due to increase x10 but won't be reflected in the Q3 results as the sweden operation only came online the 15th of January.

Put that all together with shares outstanding and i'm getting a 12mt EPS per share of .75c ( we know it's going to get bigger again this year through more expansion but I haven't factored that in), it closed yesterday at 2.94, giving a p/e ratio of 4. It should at a minimum be trading at a p/e of 10 when earnings are released in feb which will give a 155% upside in sp from where we are now.

Now it's a start up on a venture exchange that might explain the low take up and it's only released 12 days earning but there are good investors behind this and it is bringing the largest crypto miner in the world to the capital markets.

It has positive free cash flow, no debt and high cash flow margin. I'm not seeing a downside only the space it's operating in which is Crypto/Blockchain and none of us are fully sure where that is going but they mine virgin traceable Ethereum and that looks like the go to crypto going forward if the members of the Ethereum Alliance is anything to go by.

Would love someone to pick holes in that estimate but I think it's a pretty pessimistic outlook as it is.

drunkmonkey · 27-01-2018 1:11pm

Just listened to a recent interview with the CEO of Hive Frank Holmes, 1 million a week in revenue by April, 75% gross margin. 25million in free cash flow. He says it's should be trading with a p/e of 40.
Means my numbers are off above but coming to a similar share price target over the next few months.

OwlsZat · 27-01-2018 2:22pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Just listened to a recent interview with the CEO of Hive Frank Holmes, 1 million a week in revenue by April, 75% gross margin. 25million in free cash flow. He says it's should be trading with a p/e of 40.
Means my numbers are off above but coming to a similar share price target over the next few months.

Hope it's not another CEO biging themselves up. What are your revised price targets?

drunkmonkey · 27-01-2018 2:50pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Hope it's not another CEO biging themselves up. What are your revised price targets?

If they have a 12mt net cash flow.of 100million, 226,329,000 shares outstanding, that's giving me a FCF per share of .44cent times x40 earnings. 12mt price target of $15, probably over the next few quarters leg up to $7 after Q3 earnings I suspect. Might come under some heavy selling though as a lot of people got cheap shares out there might want to cash in. Not sure if there's enough buyers out there just yet. It'll only be their first quarter of full earnings.

I know it's a gamble on a start up but the numbers seem great. The CEO is very experienced, don't think he'd put his reputation in danger to easily.

28-01-2018 1:40am

Augeo wrote: »

Versarien PLC

Currently £0.9140 ........... was way lower until 3 months ago and has only just recently risen very sharply.

Could well drop significantly again and I expect it to but I reckon the potential upside is huge if not quite exponential.

This crowd are a materials company "Versarien utilises proprietary technology to create innovative new engineering solutions that are capable of having a game-changing impact on a broad variety of industry sectors"

They are in bed with some Chinese folk who aren't slow to invest in manufacturing facilities etc.

I see this as a Tesla type share ........... huge growth based on feck know what or why :pac:

This crowd got a mention in sky news on Friday. Part of a Teresa may trade trip to China. Fri saw a 16% rise in share price.....

ctomas · 28-01-2018 7:41pm

This is my Share Pick #1 for 2018:

Abbey plc. (market cap €321m)
New Homes, Property Developers, Construction, Builder

It's listed on both the ISEQ and LSE @ €15.00.

Pros
-2017 EPS €2.41 therefore P/E 6.2
-Ran by owner with large stake
-Cash of €90m in the bank
-increasing exposure to irish building market
-no share dilution as no employee incentive plan
-survived through recession

Cons
-extremely limited liquidity due to high ownership by Gallagher family
-high exposure to UK building market

b4bmm · 29-01-2018 10:43am

ctomas wrote: »

This is my Share Pick #1 for 2018:

Abbey plc. (market cap €321m)
New Homes, Property Developers, Construction, Builder

It's listed on both the ISEQ and LSE @ €15.00.

Pros
-2017 EPS €2.41 therefore P/E 6.2
-Ran by owner with large stake
-Cash of €90m in the bank
-increasing exposure to irish building market
-no share dilution as no employee incentive plan
-survived through recession

Cons
-extremely limited liquidity due to high ownership by Gallagher family
-high exposure to UK building market

Any dividends?

ctomas · 29-01-2018 11:20am

Dividends of €0.17, very small in relation to EPS but doubled since 2013. This is a neutral IMHO.

littlevillage · 30-01-2018 8:09pm

I like Abbey as well, but the share price seems to be stuck on a narrow range between about €14.50 to €15 for a good while now and the liquidity problem (only 18.4% of the shares are in free float) makes it very difficult to gauge.

The market observers I have read seem to think the Gallaghers will take the company private (or sell out entirely to a 3rd party suitor) either way there will be a good premium to the current market share price when they do move

(Thats why I bought in anyway :-) )

Its basically a one way bet, but a little patience may be required.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 31-01-2018 10:14am

Any thoughts on HIVE after the past two days? Seem's a good opportunity to buy in.

drunkmonkey · 31-01-2018 11:35am

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Any thoughts on HIVE after the past two days? Seem's a good opportunity to buy in.

Could go lower as more shares becoming free trading in February, I'm hoping it won't but it could.
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few days, I'd wait until February shares become free trading before doing anything. If it holds through that, should have a run.
To me it's cheap now but could get cheaper. I've went through the share dilution already it's not pretty.

Fidelity have upped their share holding to 10% over the last few weeks, looks like they don't think the trend is going the right way either.

Few stop losses could he hit today if it's dips below 2.50, it's cheap below that and won't stay there for the whole of February. I'd expect it to be 4 by earnings and if not this one 6 by the following one.

Personally holding until October/November. Not selling anything before then at the earliest.

will56 · 01-02-2018 9:08am

Been looking at this the past week.
Is it better to buy on Toronto or Frankfurt exchange ?

drunkmonkey · 01-02-2018 10:06am

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Any thoughts on HIVE after the past two days? Seem's a good opportunity to buy in.

will56 wrote: »

Been looking at this the past week.
Is it better to buy on Toronto or Frankfurt exchange ?

At the price it is right now I think it's a good entry point. It has a rocky road ahead for the next 2 weeks...it is due for some serious upside in these couple or weeks everything going to plan.
Dipped again yesterday but volume is coming back so it's in play now.

As for what exchange to buy on, I really don't know I've them on both. It's cheap now on the borse at 1.69. will that be worth 2.69 by end of Feb I think so.

drunkmonkey · 01-02-2018 10:07am

will56 wrote: »

Been looking at this the past week.
Is it better to buy on Toronto or Frankfurt exchange ?

What do you make of the stock?

drunkmonkey · 01-02-2018 5:35pm

This is worth a read in around what my estimate was https://www.newcurrencyfrontier.com/2018/01/30/game-of-crypto-chicken-now-playing-at-the-venture-exchange/
Another bloodbath today though...

TheSheriff · 01-02-2018 7:30pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

This is worth a read in around what my estimate was https://www.newcurrencyfrontier.com/2018/01/30/game-of-crypto-chicken-now-playing-at-the-venture-exchange/
Another bloodbath today though...

Good read, thanks.!

I've been reading a bit about HIVE (first heard of it here) the last few weeks, think I will take the plunge...

Do people see the share price dipping further ~ Feb 12th when those $1.50 shares become available for trading? Interested in opinions.

drunkmonkey · 01-02-2018 10:37pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Good read, thanks.!

I've been reading a bit about HIVE (first heard of it here) the last few weeks, think I will take the plunge...

Do people see the share price dipping further ~ Feb 12th when those $1.50 shares become available for trading? Interested in opinions.

I've rode over the $6.75 hill with this stock when hit with a trading halt after a big short and they had to release 24 million shares early, dragged back down to $4 lifted a bit then dropped down to around the $3.70 mark, then in December another 37.8 million shares became free trading and it held steady enough even though those shares were at .30 cent.

The Feb 12th release is very close to earnings not sure the exact date. The stock has a huge short interest again, I'm not sure how far it could dip.
I would love to get shares at $1.50 or less. I've no idea what way it's going next but it's going up some time in February.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 05-02-2018 4:14pm

Nice entry into HIVE today at 1.95

Share Picks 2018

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