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Property Market 2020

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    #3572
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Phillip D wrote: »
    Why would I sell it now, can still rent it and make extra money each month, if the market does crash I will just continue to rent it and wait till I am ready and I can get the most for it to sell it .

    Pretty sure he was being sarcastic in his first paragraph


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    #3573
    1sttimebuyer20
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭1sttimebuyer20


    are many others here at sale agreed stage? if so, what are your thoughts at this stage? pull out? role the dice?

    I have recently renegotiated a sale agreed price which took over 3 weeks to do, of course in the mean time the extent of the damage covid-19 is going to have on the economy has become more obvious and I really do not fancy paying this price and then in 6-12 months the market has taken a nosedive.

    I understand the market and the impact covid-19 is going to have is near on impossible to predict right now however I personally feel regardless of the damage done to the economy, the sheer shortage of housing will probably still outweigh the demand so where does the price drop come into play?


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    #3574
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    500,000 not working for X weeks. Some of them will need to find new jobs as some companies will close.
    Air b&bs coming back into domestic rental market.
    Banks not lending as much (exemptions already a thing of the past for some banks).

    Same demand as now to buy maybe but people might not be able to borrow as much.

    All very much subject to ifs & buts.


  • Options
    #3575
    1sttimebuyer20
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭1sttimebuyer20


    Augeo wrote: »
    500,000 not working for X weeks. Some of them will need to find new jobs as some companies will close.
    Air b&bs coming back into domestic rental market.
    Banks not lending as much (exemptions already a thing of the past for some banks).

    Same demand as now to buy maybe but people might not be able to borrow as much.

    All very much subject to ifs & buts.

    Yep, pretty much in line with my chain of thoughts, unsure of how many airbnb landlords will opt for long term lettings or sales, exemptions I am sure will be cut across the board; I am currently relying on one. I have 27% of the new sale agreed price saved however id be holding back the full allowed 17% as the house needs significant investment, new windows, doors, floors, kitchen, 2 bathrooms etc.

    Personally, thankfully I am not in a huge panic, I moved back into my parents 18 months ago to save, myself and my partner have literally only spent money on fuel, food and very little housekeeping to our parents, we have had an occasional but very modest date night and that has been it. We do not plan on kids for another 3-4 years however at the same time, I am a bit hairy (30) to be living at home, 24 months was my max limit when I bit the bullet and moved home 18 months ago


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    #3576
    guyfawkes5
    Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭guyfawkes5


    1sttimebuyer20 wrote: »
    are many others here at sale agreed stage? if so, what are your thoughts at this stage? pull out? role the dice?

    I have recently renegotiated a sale agreed price which took over 3 weeks to do, of course in the mean time the extent of the damage covid-19 is going to have on the economy has become more obvious and I really do not fancy paying this price and then in 6-12 months the market has taken a nosedive.

    I understand the market and the impact covid-19 is going to have is near on impossible to predict right now however I personally feel regardless of the damage done to the economy, the sheer shortage of housing will probably still outweigh the demand so where does the price drop come into play?
    The honest answer is that it's complicated and no-one knows for sure.

    It seems very likely there'll be a drop in the market but then what that means for individual properties is less clear. A lot of posters here seem to think it's very simple and it'll be across the board, although it seems more likely to me that the savings will be from motivated sellers, either through individual circumstances or having a property which has comparatively little going for it (in a seller's market sometimes just being a house is enough). The properties which are generally seen as nice will be slower to come down as they'll be kept off the market or find themselves fought over by the remaining buyers.

    It took many consecutive years in the last downturn for property to appreciably fall, and I don't think even the worse end of current estimates have the upcoming recession lasting that long as the recession is not structural as the last one was and, in spite of the reflexive cynicism most people have, the government and EU seems to have learned lessons from the Great Recession.

    From your point of view, this all means there will be bargains out there but it's chancey and they mightn't be in areas you want. There's probably little harm in asking for a discount unless you do so in a way that convinces the seller you're not interested anymore.


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    #3577
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Does anyone have a view on whether Covid19 will have an effect on relative prices re commuter belt and beyond?

    i.e there is current premium for Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, Kildare etc as everyone commuting to their office, but if work form home takes off to any meaningful extent will there be more buyers looking further afield?


  • Options
    #3578
    Marcusm
    Registered Users Posts: 10,184 ✭✭✭✭Marcusm


    kevinc565 wrote: »
    Journey time is approximately the same to O'Connell bridge (40-50 minutes)

    Houses still going for €1.2m out in Carrickmines. Obviously not representative etc

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-carrickmines-avenue-carrickmines-wood-carrickmines-dublin-18/4337116

    That house is so bland it could be taken from any mid 90s new build catelogue and put on the photocopier at x1.5. Such a disappointment for the price and relatively distant location which necessitates car use for most activities. The Luas is not that close and even with that.


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    #3579
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    1sttimebuyer20 wrote: »
    are many others here at sale agreed stage? if so, what are your thoughts at this stage? pull out? role the dice?

    I have recently renegotiated a sale agreed price which took over 3 weeks to do, of course in the mean time the extent of the damage covid-19 is going to have on the economy has become more obvious and I really do not fancy paying this price and then in 6-12 months the market has taken a nosedive.

    I understand the market and the impact covid-19 is going to have is near on impossible to predict right now however I personally feel regardless of the damage done to the economy, the sheer shortage of housing will probably still outweigh the demand so where does the price drop come into play?

    Sit n your hands for two to three years and see what's available then and what you can afford/borrow then.


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    #3580
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    this is a good opportunity for some, if they keep full salary, they can now save for deposit quicker, as its so easy not to spend money on crap now and prices are dropping...


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    #3581
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,672 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Marcusm wrote: »
    That house is so bland it could be taken from any mid 90s new build catelogue and put on the photocopier at x1.5. Such a disappointment for the price and relatively distant location which necessitates car use for most activities. The Luas is not that close and even with that.

    to be fair you could say that of almost any estate built in that era , there wasn't a recent estate built. Even avoca park in blackrock isn't great


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    #3582
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    cal naughton wrote: »
    Dublin contributed 25billion to the company's overall revenues in 2019 and only paid corporation tax of 63 million here. The other companies you mentioned might be under pressure but Facebook is a totally different proposition.
    yes they contributed that amount of money. Buy, my point was about the "brains" work ... i.e. the core technical development of their key products. None of them - including Facebook - do that here.


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    #3583
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    awec wrote: »
    Facebook do of course have engineering positions in Dublin.
    yes they do but they are not working on core product development... just support and "localisation" type activity.


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    #3584
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    cd76 wrote: »
    yes they contributed that amount of money. Buy, my point was about the "brains" work ... i.e. the core technical development of their key products. None of them - including Facebook - do that here.

    Ideas etc are fab.
    It's the sh1tshovelling and hard work that lines the shareholders pockets..... Plenty of that done here. Yeah, corporation tax, I know.


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    #3585
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    bdmc5 wrote: »
    Last few days of following this thread Ive these posts wildly speculating 30 percent drops in houses this year, that rental market is crashing and we will have mass emigration. I realised that these hysterical posts have all been left by you.

    Like the rest of us you don’t have a clue what we happen at the end of the day. i would recommend if you are in the market for a home then dont buy as I dont think you will be able to tolerate the stress short to medium term drop in property prices.

    You could argue The flip side When the time comes we come out of this there will be a huge bottle neck of buyers who had been holding off and developers will hold back stock to push up prices back up as mass employment slowly builds back up again. There’s still a large portion of people working from home earning full wages so it’s nowhere near as clear certain of a meltdown of The housing market as you make out.
    Spoken like a true Estate Agent, well done. Now when you have calmed down go read a few of the respected press from the Irish Times to the New York Times and you can get the data supporting my positions. By the way I do own my own home and am not stressed, actually quite looking forward to investing when the market is at the bottom in about 12 months time.


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    #3586
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    Yurt! wrote: »
    As Bob Dylan once sang: 'You don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.'

    Speculating on a possible 30 percent drop in house prices is not hysteria in the least. We're staring down the barrel of one of the most painful economic events in modern history.
    precisely, you are right. You could say "The answer my friend is blowing in the wind, the answer is blowing in the wind..."


  • Options
    #3587
    skooterblue2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,816 ✭✭✭skooterblue2


    beauf wrote: »
    Sit n your hands for two to three years and see what's available then and what you can afford/borrow then.

    There is a time and season for everything. When the Karma of economics works perfectly, the property market is perfectly in tune with the economy. There are times when you get lucky like meeting a distressed property or you get swept away with the crowd and media hype to buy or forever be stuck at home or renting.
    There is a time for living at home, starting a house share, buying a family home and down sizing in your winter years. The trick is to know when is your time. When to hold your money and when to be bold and go for it. life is short so choose wisely and try and catch the wave in the trough and sell up before the crest.


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    #3588
    lomb
    Registered Users Posts: 6,031 ✭✭✭lomb


    Marcusm wrote: »
    That house is so bland it could be taken from any mid 90s new build catelogue and put on the photocopier at x1.5. Such a disappointment for the price and relatively distant location which necessitates car use for most activities. The Luas is not that close and even with that.

    If you have 1.2m then your not going to be on the Luas likely. Thats an income of over 300k a year to mortgage that!
    Yes its bland but its ok. Wouldn't be my cup of tea but it must be someones.
    Agreed though houses like this could crash 30% and Im an optimist


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    #3589
    bdmc5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 149 ✭✭bdmc5


    cd76 wrote: »
    Spoken like a true Estate Agent, well done. Now when you have calmed down go read a few of the respected press from the Irish Times to the New York Times and you can get the data supporting my positions. By the way I do own my own home and am not stressed, actually quite looking forward to investing when the market is at the bottom in about 12 months time.


    By all means please link your articles proving that houses prices will drop 20-30 percent, mass emigration will occur and the rental market will collapse?



    It maybe very well be reasonable to forecast a 20/30 percent drop in next 9 months but Is it not reasonable to expand the forecasting to allow for what will happen if prices do drop that much.


    You and many here seem to think that have your pick of houses but in that scenario surely supply would be non existant as developers hold back new builds and sellers unless highly motivated to sell never sell that much lower in such a short period of time. The bottleneck of buyers who held off all eagerly awaiting a bargain, increasing employment and the built up savings of people in employment with nothing to spend it in lockdown will have means to buy so surely this drives up prices very quickly on the tiny supply that will be there.


    Im not EA but we do own our home with no plans to sell as we love it here. I feel genuine sympathy for people who have saved and sacrificed for years and now just as they are to get the home they dreamed of but have this horrible nagging fear of what will happen prices. It not easy to buy a home watch the value decrease but the flip side im saying it also very possible that that same house is no longer available in 12 months time, banks arent lending and supply in non existant. Its very tough dilemma and surely it best to weight up both sides is all im trying to discuss here


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    #3590
    sweetie
    Registered Users Posts: 9,791 ✭✭✭sweetie


    skooterblue2 wrote: »
    There is a time and season for everything. When the Karma of economics works perfectly, the property market is perfectly in tune with the economy. There are times when you get lucky like meeting a distressed property or you get swept away with the crowd and media hype to buy or forever be stuck at home or renting.
    There is a time for living at home, starting a house share, buying a family home and down sizing in your winter years. The trick is to know when is your time. When to hold your money and when to be bold and go for it. life is short so choose wisely and try and catch the wave in the trough and sell up before the crest.

    You've got to know when to hold 'em
    Know when to fold 'em
    Know when to walk away
    And know when to run
    You never count your money
    When you're sittin' at the table
    There'll be time enough for countin'
    When the dealin's done


  • Options
    #3591
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    Marius34 wrote: »
    I would think this Summer will be a good time to negotiate 3-5% from the current price, with more option to choose and less biding wars. As long as multinationals corp. stays here, which I believe they will, although would need to follow news on this.
    I don't believe in property crash with over 20%. Simply because there is lack of property, not many of empty new builds, relatively low number of residential construction, and in overall on a whole scale of a country, today Irish household has way less Loans, and much more in their accounts, than what it was in 2008.
    In addition to that, for the people who won't loose their jobs, it is much easier to save initial deposit this year, than in any other year.
    ......go in at least 30%off .. and up to 40%+ in 3 months time.


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    #3592
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    If you want to invest in property, why not just put your money in a reit? Will you be moving to another place you already own or will you need to get a mortgage?
    ... put money in a REIT !!!! Have you seen the stock market ??? REIT have had there day.


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    #3593
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    Advice would be to sit tight and offer nothing now. This year is over for Property sales. Next year will get you something at 30 -40% less. SO you'll be able to get a lot more house for your money in a better area. It will also allow you understand your job situation post this pandemic. Additionally Interest rates will be lower so everything is in your favour for next year. Be patient.


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    #3594
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    Augeo wrote: »
    Ideas etc are fab.
    It's the sh1tshovelling and hard work that lines the shareholders pockets..... Plenty of that done here. Yeah, corporation tax, I know.
    Not really. They are the first to go if they downsize. Most of the work they are doing can be outsourced so some of the jobs might stay but it'll be a race to the bottom. As you say it "**** shovelling" so by definition anyone can do it anywhere.


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    #3595
    cd76
    Registered Users Posts: 82 ✭✭cd76


    bdmc5 wrote: »
    By all means please link your articles proving that houses prices will drop 20-30 percent, mass emigration will occur and the rental market will collapse?



    It maybe very well be reasonable to forecast a 20/30 percent drop in next 9 months but Is it not reasonable to expand the forecasting to allow for what will happen if prices do drop that much.


    You and many here seem to think that have your pick of houses but in that scenario surely supply would be non existant as developers hold back new builds and sellers unless highly motivated to sell never sell that much lower in such a short period of time. The bottleneck of buyers who held off all eagerly awaiting a bargain, increasing employment and the built up savings of people in employment with nothing to spend it in lockdown will have means to buy so surely this drives up prices very quickly on the tiny supply that will be there.


    Im not EA but we do own our home with no plans to sell as we love it here. I feel genuine sympathy for people who have saved and sacrificed for years and now just as they are to get the home they dreamed of but have this horrible nagging fear of what will happen prices. It not easy to buy a home watch the value decrease but the flip side im saying it also very possible that that same house is no longer available in 12 months time, banks arent lending and supply in non existant. Its very tough dilemma and surely it best to weight up both sides is all im trying to discuss here
    sure it is always best to weigh up all side.
    The facts are simple and supported by the CBoI yesterday forecasting a ~25% hit to the economy. Rents have tanked already, Airbnb marked is gone. There's suddenly 300k to 500k people suddenly unemployed. Builders are barely building anything and this wont change in the short term. Govt house building will start once the new FF/FG govt get moving because they know if they don't build social housing the Shinners will get even more seats next time.
    It'll be a buyers market in 12 months (and sooner) but best to wait until spring 2021 when the REIT have crashed and the US funds dump thousands of the apartments they bought. Remember they got them for almost nothing from NAMA so at market prices a-30% they are likely to still turn a profit !


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    #3596
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    While you might be right cd76, you do appear to be consistently confusing opinions and forecasts with facts.


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    #3597
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,672 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    cd76 wrote: »
    Advice would be to sit tight and offer nothing now. This year is over for Property sales. Next year will get you something at 30 -40% less. SO you'll be able to get a lot more house for your money in a better area. It will also allow you understand your job situation post this pandemic. Additionally Interest rates will be lower so everything is in your favour for next year. Be patient.

    how many people actually bought houses when prices dropped the last time. People forget in a bad market people aren't inclined to sell builders aren't inclined to build and banks aren't inclined to lend

    Maybe what you are after comes available and maybe you are in a position to buy it but don't bet on it


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    #3598
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,672 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    cd76 wrote: »
    ......go in at least 30%off .. and up to 40%+ in 3 months time.

    Who is going to sell at those prices in the near term ?

    Almost no one


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    #3599
    LJ12345
    Registered Users Posts: 122 ✭✭LJ12345


    Augeo wrote: »
    500,000 not working for X weeks. Some of them will need to find new jobs as some companies will close.
    Air b&bs coming back into domestic rental market.
    Banks not lending as much (exemptions already a thing of the past for some banks).

    Same demand as now to buy maybe but people might not be able to borrow as much.

    All very much subject to ifs & buts.

    Totally, so many ways this could go, ex Airbnb’s seem to be offering 6 month rentals, they don’t want to tie up into long term rents and lodgers currently protected in people’s homes may be asked to leave their rent a room agreement at the end of the 12 week temporary legislation and flood the market seeking rentals. Clearly at the moment everything looks dire but it can change so fast as we’ve just seen.


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    #3600
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    this is a good opportunity for some, if they keep full salary, they can now save for deposit quicker, as its so easy not to spend money on crap now and prices are dropping...

    Taxes are going to have to go up especially on people with good salaries. Our debt/gdp ratio is going to explode this year, looking at our disastrous tax take for March I’d say we will take out the 2012 high of 120% early next year. This will require emergency budgets.


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    #3601
    sweetie
    Registered Users Posts: 9,791 ✭✭✭sweetie


    LJ12345 wrote: »
    Totally, so many ways this could go, ex Airbnb’s seem to be offering 6 month rentals, they don’t want to tie up into long term rents and lodgers currently protected in people’s homes may be asked to leave their rent a room agreement at the end of the 12 week temporary legislation and flood the market seeking rentals. Clearly at the moment everything looks dire but it can change so fast as we’ve just seen.

    Lodgers/Licensees aren't protected by the recent legislation.
    It was student tenancies that were covered.


This discussion has been closed.
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