Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 1 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... After some moderate rather than heavy rain at times in the south this morning (another low will track past Ireland to the south) with patchy light showers further north, skies will become partly cloudy with showers redeveloping mid-day, as winds become variable and sometimes light but then increase again later in the day to W 40-60 km/hr with highs near 12 C. Potential for further 5-10 mm rainfalls in south (about 10-15 mm appears to have fallen overnight).

TONIGHT ... Becoming windy with showers, winds increasing to SW 40-60 km/hr with some higher gusts by morning near west coast, 5-10 mm rain and lows around 7 or 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and possibly windy at times, showers or periods of rain, winds SSW 50-80 km/hr veering to westerly later (strongest gusts near south coast), and highs somewhat cooler 9-11 C. A further 20-30 mm rain possible, some spot flooding likely to develop inland south. Leinster may become quite windy in the afternoon and evening (W-NW 50-80 km/hr) and while Ulster and inland Connacht could have rather light winds much of the day, they will also see a gradual increase towards late afternoon.

SUNDAY ... Rather chilly and wet with highs only around 6 to 8 C except closer to 11 C in Munster. Winds could turn more to the east or northeast in Ulster, Leinster and north Connacht. This might produce fog or mist closer to the weak frontal boundary. Once again the rainfalls are likely to be heavier in the south with 10-15 mm possible there. Skies becoming variable with the odd break towards late afternoon in central and northern counties.

MONDAY ... Rather chilly compared to recent days with isolated showers or drizzle in a mostly cloudy northeast backing to northwest breeze, morning lows about 2-5 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages, very windy at times (SW 60-100 km/hr) and highs rapidly returning to low teens, very mild nights likely in the windy Atlantic flow. Several rather strong lows will race past to the north and any one of them could intensify enough to produce a few severe gusts, most likely around Thursday and Sunday but timing is very preliminary at this stage.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and TONIGHT ... Heavy rain likely in the south, slight risk of strong wind gusts near Channel as a low follows a similar track to Sunday night's event although at a different time of day and not appearing quite as strong on the charts (also not likely to deepen any more than its moderate strength in England). Overnight lows 8-10 C, and highs about 14-15 C in the south and 11-13 C elsewhere. Some rainfalls of 25-50 mm possible. Very mild overnight with lows 8-12 C. Rain tapering to showers or drizzle from west to east. At this point, winds are not expected to increase much in any part of England, but could get rather gusty over the Channel and in northern France.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland over the weekend and beyond, as a frontal boundary slowly presses south. Some parts of Scotland could see a touch of snow on hills at least around Sunday or Monday, but it's more likely to be a cold drizzly rain lower down in Scotland and much of northern England, while staying closer to 10-12 C in the south. Monday could see some locally heavy rainfalls in southeast England as the weak system predicted for Ireland on Sunday slowly intensifies while drifting further southeast.


Forecasts for North America

Eastern regions very mild with showers and thunderstorms, gusty SSW winds veering to WSW later, highs 18-21 C. Great Lakes, Midwest, Ohio valley and mid-south will all be turning a bit cooler in gusty westerly winds, rain or showers. Temperatures here will be falling from morning highs of 15-18 C to about 7-11 C later. Clearing and mild in Texas and western sections of the central plains. Rather bland and milder than average in most of the west with some rain here and there. My local weather on Thursday was overcast and rather foggy with a bit of rain at times but probably not enough to spoil our chances of the driest October in many years (normally, like western Ireland, Oct and Nov are wet months around here).

Sunday, 3 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


New moon occurs today at 12:51, with a total eclipse over equatorial Africa.

TODAY ... Widespread showers ending for a time but heavy rain likely to spread into Munster and south Leinster by afternoon. A few sunny breaks could develop further north mid-day, and in general it will be rather cool with highs 8-10 C. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm later today and tonight in the south. Morning gusty winds will subside and may back into the northeast in many places by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing in the south, some isolated and perhaps sleety showers further north but also some clear intervals with ground fog or mist forming, slippery roads could develop due to black ice as lows fall to the range of -1 to 3 C (4-7 C south).

MONDAY ... Rain ending early morning for a time, some clearing, frosty to start in central counties with patchy black ice hazards on roads, and morning lows -1 to +3 C, then increasing cloud, winds increasing from west, occasional light rain, highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Very mild and windy with rain or drizzle at times, winds WSW 60-90 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Very mild, drizzle or light rain, winds SW 70-110 km/hr, lows near 11 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Very mild, windy, rain. Lows near 10 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very windy and mild with further rain into the weekend of 9th and 10th, perhaps a little more settled by following week but a dry spell that starts out rather cool is likely to turn very mild later.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be windy to start, then calmer by mid-day except for continuing gales in eastern Scotland, highs 8-10 C. Some light rain or showers dying out with sunny intervals possible by mid-day or afternoon.

TONIGHT into MONDAY will see rain, heavy at times, crossing Wales and southern England (20-40 mm potential, spot flooding). Lows 7-10 C and highs 7-10 C as temperatures then begin to drop. Some snow could fall on high summits in Wales.

OUTLOOK is for the same very windy and mild to warm conditions as in Ireland later in the week.


Forecasts for North America

Eastern regions dry and mild with some sunshine, central portions of the U.S. windy and mild with rain developing, snow developing late in the day and overnight into Monday for the northern plains and eastern prairies after a mild start, some falls of 10-20 cm likely. Rain and windy on the west coast. My local weather on Saturday was very wet (50 mm rain in frequent downpours) and foggy at times with highs near 11 C. We now move back to standard time in North America.

Tuesday, 5 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather mild and windy with rain or drizzle at times, winds in more exposed locations WSW 50-80 km/hr, although 30-50 km/hr for most, and highs near 12 C. Further rainfalls 1-3 mm on average.

TONIGHT ... Brief clearing inland north could allow some near frost or even short-lived black ice on some roads (lows 0-4 C) but the southern half of the country will remain under enough cloud and with a westerly breeze to stir the air, lows will generally be 5-8 C there. Just some light rain or drizzle in west Munster and possibly later in Connacht.

WEDNESDAY ... Continuing rather mild, drizzle or light rain, winds increasing late in the day to SW 70-110 km/hr in north, 40-70 km/hr south, morning lows 5-8 C and highs near 12 C. Strong winds will blow all night in the north and may peak around Thursday 0600-0800h at 80-120 km/hr. It won't be that windy further south, WSW 50-80 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Very mild, windy, rain. Lows near 10 C and early highs 12 to 14 but falling off to about 6-8 C in the north by afternoon, with partial clearing to follow by evening.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few showers, after a rather chilly start (lows about 2-4 C) then highs 10-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy with variable skies, showers sometimes rather blustery with hail or thunder possible, and a cooling trend by afternoon and evening. The coldest part of this brief incursion may come well before midnight so that lows near freezing will be replaced Sunday morning by rising temperatures. (see Britain forecast for my thoughts on how close this gets to being wintry in Ireland, it could perhaps snow on highest summits in Donegal and Mayo on Saturday night).

SUNDAY ... The general theme of forecast guidance remains cool to start (in Ulster and north Leinster in particular) but much milder towards evening, possibly a brief pre-dawn frost with lows -2 to +3 C but highs struggling back towards 8-10 C perhaps not until evening or overnight, 10-12 C in west as rain redevelops.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY of following week are indicated to become much milder and could get well above 10 C in a strong southwest flow. There are some hints of a very warm inversion developing which could fail to break down in some northern areas mid-week or later, but it doesn't look like the milder conditions will be prevented from mixing down in the south, west or probably central counties although dense fog and some rather cold overnight lows might be part of this picture by mid-week. However, earlier in the week when guidance is more reliable, it should be very mild night and day with some rain in southwest winds of 50-80 km/hr.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Frequent showers for most regions with somewhat drier conditions spreading in from the west by afternoon, highs 10-12 C, winds W 50-80 km/hr in exposed locations.

TONIGHT ... Clearing at times with cooler conditions except in the south, lows generally -3 to +2 C but 4-7 C south. Black ice likely to be fairly widespread on roads in parts of rural, inland northern England, Wales and southern Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland for most regions of Britain but if the cold turn materializes next weekend, Scotland and higher parts of northern England could see snow, albeit not lasting very long as warmer air quickly pushes in by Monday. The coldest part of this brief incursion is currently timed for late overnight which favours some rather low minima on Sunday morning, to about -4 C in parts of the inland central and northern counties of England and Wales, southern Scotland. Snow, if any does fall, would be most likely in north Wales, Cumbria and over higher parts of central Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Conditions are changing rather slowly in all regions, so continued dry and near normal temperatures in parts of the eastern U.S. and Canada, rain spreading slowly east into the Great Lakes from the Midwest, highs 10-13 C, and mild to warm further south with showers along the weak trailing fronts of the Great Lakes disturbance. Snow tapering to flurries in the northern plains and eastern prairies, clearing further west for a time, light rain moving onto the west coast. My local weather on Monday was generally fair but cool with highs near 7 or 8 C. Drizzle has begun to fall since sunset.

Thursday, 7 November

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for isolated gusts to 120 km/hr possible at times this morning in well-exposed locations in northwest counties, from a southwest direction. It is expected that most other locations will peak at around 90-100 km/hr.

TODAY ... Becoming very windy this morning especially across northern counties (SW 70-110 km/hr), with blustery showers (hail and thunder possible especially around 10-11 a.m.) or periods of rain, then brief clearing followed by more showers in more moderate but steady SW winds 50-70 km/hr. Highs 12 to 14 may be reached rather early in the northwest where temperatures will fall off to about 6-8 C by afternoon. Highs about 11-13 C further south will occur during the more usual early afternoon hours. Rainfalls will vary from 3-7 mm south to 7-12 mm north.

TONIGHT ... Showers generally ending although they could persist in some parts of west Munster and Connacht. Clear intervals will develop and it will become much less windy. Lows of 2-5 C are expected with slight risk of localized ground frost.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few showers, after a rather chilly start (lows about 2-4 C) then highs 10-12 C. Moderate WSW breezes and rainfalls of about 2-5 mm on average.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy with variable skies, showers sometimes rather blustery with hail or thunder possible, and a cooling trend by afternoon and evening. Morning lows -2 to +3 C, afternoon highs 6-9 C north, 8-11 C south.

SUNDAY ... Clear intervals around midnight could lead to early frost (in Ulster and north Leinster in particular) after which temperatures are likely to rise steadily towards 5-8 C by morning, then periods of rain, heavier in west, very mild by afternoon and evening, highs near 13 C. Potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls ending late overnight.

OUTLOOK for next week is generally mild and breezy with frequent frontal passages and wind shifts from SW to WNW. The first of these is timed for Monday night or early Tuesday, a second one is likely around Wednesday afternoon or evening, and a third and perhaps stronger front could arrive towards the following weekend, after which temperatures may fall considerably for a few days. But until then, highs will generally be around or a little above 10 C, nights could be cold at times but depending on timing of cloud and frontal passages, for example Sunday night and again Wednesday night temperatures would likely stay quite high with strong winds. The south could see a pleasant dry spell for two or three days when high pressure drifts closer around Wednesday to Friday. Confidence on the colder turn (after Sunday 17th) is only moderate as the Atlantic influence may continue to at least some extent.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with showers, strong south-westerly winds of about 50-80 km/hr will increase to about 70-110 km/hr in the north by afternoon and evening with highs 9-13 C. Not as windy over some parts of inland southern England, where trend will also be dry for a time then a steady rain is expected later when a front moving south of Ireland reaches Britain and stalls overnight.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland for most regions of Britain but if the cold turn materializes next weekend, Scotland and higher parts of northern England could see snow, albeit not lasting very long as warmer air quickly pushes in by Monday. The coldest part of this brief incursion is currently timed for late overnight which favours some rather low minima on Sunday morning, to about -4 C in parts of the inland central and northern counties of England and Wales, southern Scotland. Snow, if any does fall, would be most likely in north Wales, Cumbria and over higher parts of central Scotland. It will turn much milder on Sunday night and stay very mild for most of next week.


Forecasts for North America

Rain spreading faster to the east now, should reach the east coast later today with temperatures falling across the Midwest and Great Lakes, inland northeast. Highs near 15 C on the east coast trending to 5-7 C further west. The west coast is also seeing heavier rainfalls from a slow-moving frontal system coming ashore. Most central regions are generally dry if cloudy, with a minor disturbance bringing patchy sleet or light rain to parts of the central plains states. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with mainly dry conditions, rain this evening however, and highs 7-9 C.

Saturday, 9 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy to windy at times with partly cloudy skies, showers sometimes rather blustery with hail or thunder possible, afternoon highs 6-9 C north, 8-11 C south. Rainfalls generally 3-5 mm. Winds W 30-50 km/hr turning more northwesterly afternoon and evening. Some snow could settle on higher summits in the north by evening and may be visible for a while Sunday morning before it either melts or disappears behind cloud (and melts).

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and frosty in parts of north and east, more cloud likely with milder temperatures south and west. Lows -3 to +2 C north and east but rising from near +2 to +7 in south and west towards morning, with rain and strengthening southwest winds for west Munster.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, heavier in west, very mild by afternoon and evening, highs near 13 C. Potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls ending late overnight. Strong southwest winds developing, 70-100 km/hr in exposed parts of west and north, not too windy south or east until later in the day. The windy and showery conditions will last most of Sunday night and come to an end around Monday morning.

MONDAY ... Windy, very mild to start but turning a bit cooler by afternoon, showers at times but also some hazy sunshine in parts of south and east, morning lows 8-11 C and morning highs 12-14 C falling off to 8-10 C. Winds WSW 70-110 km/hr may diminish somewhat by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Breezy with variable cloud, isolated showers, not quite as mild with morning lows 3-6 C and highs 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Very mild again, windy with rain sweeping through north and showers at times further south, highs 11-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... This roller coaster ride of alternating very mild and seasonable days looks set to continue on roughly a two-day cycle although a longer-term cooling trend is still being diagnosed by the models, albeit not as strong a cooling as some had shown previously. The idea of an inversion high with fog in many areas becoming rather persistent around end of the week is back in the mix and will have to be watched, some places could break free from this fog and have some nice mild afternoon sunshine, other places might be stuck with low cloud and mist all day and that could keep things rather cold. In the longer term, a more variable and at times colder pattern could develop, although I don't see anything resembling 2010 in the works.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers in north, rain or hail south, highs 6-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Widespread frost, some wintry showers on higher terrain in north, lows -4 to +2 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland by later Sunday as the roller coaster arrives, and temperatures head up towards a peak near 14 C mid-day Monday, down slightly for Tuesday then back up again Wednesday.


Forecasts for North America

Somewhat milder in parts of the lower Great Lakes, northeast U.S. and Midwest, with mixed rain and wet snow further north. Cloudy further south with outbreaks of light rain from a weak system heading for the inland southeast tonight. Mild and dry in the central plains and southwest, snow in parts of western Canada ahead of quite a cold push of arctic air from Yukon and NWT towards the prairies. This won't affect the west coast where it will stay partly cloudy and showery, but some mountain ranges will see a bit of light snow. My local weather on Friday was cloudy but mainly dry and cool with highs about 7 C.

Monday, 11 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy, very mild to start but turning a bit cooler by afternoon, showers at times but also some hazy sunshine developing, morning to mid-day highs 12-14 C falling off to 8-10 C. Winds from the WSW will diminish somewhat later morning then pick up somewhat again by afternoon, reaching 40-70 km/hr. Further rainfalls 1-3 mm.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, isolated showers or drizzle and colder with lows around 2-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy with variable cloud, isolated showers, not quite as mild as today with highs 9-11 C. There should be good sunny intervals for much of the south and east.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming very mild again after a rather cold start to the day, and eventually windy (WSW 60-100 km/hr) with rain sweeping through north and showers at times further south, lows -1 to +4 C, then highs 11-14 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm north but only trace to 5 mm south.

THURSDAY ... Continuing rather mild despite winds shifting more northwesterly, showers ending, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs about 10 to 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Foggy in most locations for a significant part of the morning, and in a few places all day long, but hazy sunshine likely to burn through the mist to make for quite a mild afternoon. Morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs at least 7-10 C in fog or mist, 10-14 C in any sunshine. Some persistent light rain in moderate southwest winds for northern counties by afternoon and evening, lighter winds prevailing across the south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mild and breezy, turning a little cooler each day Sunday to Tuesday then much colder mid-week. Highs about 10 C on the weekend, 5-8 C early in the following week, but could drop near or below freezing briefly mid-week (models still seem fairly consistent on timing and intensity now begins to line up with potential for one or two days with highs in the rather cold 3-5 C range) -- this colder spell could bring some brief lying snow in northern counties, but it doesn't appear to be anything likely to last very long although it may stay cooler than average with frequent frosts when the deeper cold comes to an end after a two or three day visit -- and confidence on this is only moderate at this range.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain, fog, strong southwest winds developing, temperatures rising to about 13-15 C in south, 10-13 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to the forecast for Ireland even for timing, as systems will be moving very quickly.


Forecasts for North America

Mild in the eastern U.S., turning much colder in stages across the Great Lakes and Midwest, eventually snow showers are likely (by Tuesday). Cold across inland western Canada and northern plains states, temperatures falling well below -10 C by day and to near -25 C at night, but later today Alberta will be warmed by chinook winds to near +7 C. The very cold air will not get very far south as a strong zonal flow develops and weak lows zip east from near Vancouver B.C. to Chicago and on into New England. Today, one of these fast-moving systems will bring 3-5 cm snowfalls to parts of Montana, Wyoming and South Dakota. Anything south of that will stay mild or if close to the boundary will have frequent variations from around 3-5 C to near -10 C. Staying quite warm across the southern U.S. ... My local weather on Sunday was overcast and rather mild with mostly dry conditons and highs of about 12 C. The sun was dimly visible at times through dense altostratus cloud.

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Wednesday, 13 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals for east and south, cloudy west and north, becoming very mild again, and eventually windy especially in Connacht and west Ulster (SW veering to W 70-110 km/hr) with rain sweeping through north and showers at times further south, highs 11-14 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm north but only trace to 5 mm south. Strong and damaging gusts possible around Donegal Bay in well exposed locations.

TONIGHT ... Continuing windy, temperatures slowly falling from evening levels near 12 C to eventual lows of 4-7 C. Rain becoming more intermittent and showery then ending in all but far northern locations, partial clearing.

THURSDAY ... Continuing rather mild despite winds shifting more northwesterly, still rather windy in the north (40-70 km/hr), markedly less windy in south, any further showers ending, with afternoon highs about 10 to 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Foggy in most locations for a significant part of the morning, and in a few places for much of the day, but hazy sunshine likely to burn through the mist to make for quite a mild afternoon. Morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs at least 7-10 C in fog or mist, 10-14 C in any sunshine. Some persistent light rain in moderate southwest winds for northern counties by afternoon and evening, lighter winds prevailing across the south.

SATURDAY ... Mild with some sunshine in southeast, otherwise overcast with light rain developing later in the day, morning lows 3-7 C and highs about 11 or 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, turning a bit cooler in fresher west to northwest breezes, rain by evening. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... All guidance indicates quite a cold week to follow this mild spell, but details are far from "nailed down" and there could be several attempts to bring in cold enough air masses for snow with either near-miss or partial results depending on region, chances for snow appearing to be greatest mid-week in the north. On average, highs will be around 5-7 C and overnight lows in the moderate frost range of -4 to -2 C but locally it could be a bit colder than that especially if any snow cover develops. The end of this potential cold spell could be rather gradual in terms of less windy and more settled but cool weather to follow, before possibly a return to milder conditions around the end of November. At this point, the chances for snow next week appear best in parts of Ulster and inland Connacht, and on higher ground further south. Mixed showers and hail will also feature prominently as will moderate to strong northwest winds at times.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... After a sunny start in most regions, cloud will increase with rain sweeping into Scotland, northwest England and Wales before evening. Other regions are likely to remain dry, with rising temperatures peaking late evening near 13-14 C, and winds rising to SW gales of 60-100 km/hr in most regions but severe local gusts in western Scotland to 130 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Very windy and mild with rain tapering off to showers, temperatures steady 11-13 C then falling in western and northern regions to around 5-7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Much cooler in Scotland and northern England on Thursday, somewhat cooler than today in other regions, all in strong northwest winds with frequent showers north, some snow on hills. Much less windy for most on Friday and Saturday, mild except where any fog fails to dissipate mid-day. Highs generally 8-10 C but could reach 12-14 C locally on Saturday. From then on, roughly the same outcome as for Ireland, a steady drop into below normal temperatures for the better part of a week.


Forecasts for North America

Much milder today in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio valley as southwest winds arrive with highs 11-14 C. Further east it will stay cold until tonight when temperatures will begin to rise from today's near freezing highs. This warm front is largely dry but some light snow is possible over Quebec and northern New England at times. Most of western Canada will enjoy a few mild days now ahead of a weekend push of colder air and some snow Friday night, so until then, mild and dry with highs 8-11 C. My local weather on Tuesday was hazy and mild with a few morning showers, highs near 14 C.

Friday, 15 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Foggy in some parts of the inland south and west during part of the morning, otherwise generally overcast although thin layers of high cloud in some parts will allow some sunshine to break through, highs 11-14 C. Some persistent mist or drizzle in moderate southwest winds for northern counties by afternoon and evening, lighter winds prevailing across the south.

TONIGHT ... The higher cloud will persist with some breaks, watch for a lunar halo around the almost full moon, with mist or fog patches likely by dawn, and lows 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Mild with some sunshine through partial high cloud in southeast, otherwise overcast with light rain developing later in the day, and highs about 11 or 12 C. Rain becoming a bit heavier overnight then tapering off to showers.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, turning a bit cooler in fresher west to northwest breezes, rain becoming heavy by evening. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C. Potential for 10-20 mm rainfalls during the afternoon and evening to overnight period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday will become colder with moderate northwest winds, showers becoming wintry on higher ground in north, but also some sunny intervals, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4-7 C ... Wednesday could be even colder with significant snowfalls developing in parts of the inland north and on higher ground elsewhere, highs only 2-5 C after morning lows near -3 to -1 C ... following this, turning somewhat milder in stages as the northerly feed is cut off by a weak although cool zonal westerly flow in the north, and anticyclonic conditions in the south. Severe or sharp frosts may continue but daytimes may not be as cold and certainly more settled or less windy. The evolution is not too reliable past seven days and the strong North American storm may blast through all of the postulated weak features to create a more rapid warming trend (which would be around Thursday or Friday of next week). These views from yesterday have not really changed with the latest guidance and it remains quite uncertain how cold it may actually get mid-week and also how long that degree of cold might then last. The average of all guidance would suggest some potential for snow by about Wednesday, and a very gradual warming trend thereafter.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some weak sunshine at times through layers of higher cloud, mist or fog in a few valleys may persist, but for most places good visibility and dry with highs 10-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Much less windy and partly cloudy or sunny after fog lifts for most on Friday and Saturday, mild except where any fog fails to dissipate mid-day. Highs generally 8-10 C but could reach 12-14 C locally on Saturday. From then on, roughly the same outcome as for Ireland, a steady drop into below normal temperatures for the better part of a week. Mixed precip or cold rain more likely than snow in southern England but solutions are quite varied on different models, the most likely theme is cold, wet and a little above freezing except for snow on hills and more widely in Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Becoming windy and turning much colder in western Canada, snow developing tonight and becoming heavy over some parts of the Rockies by tomorrow, mixed or sleety precip on the coast as far south as Portland OR by late Saturday, but remaining somewhat warmer in the southwest states. Very mild all weekend in central and eastern regions with rain developing, turning stormy on Sunday in central regions, very strong winds across the Midwest and Great Lakes reaching the northeast states by Monday. Highs this weekend will reach the mid to high teens to low 20s in the southeast, but the air mass replacing this on Monday will become sub-freezing by the overnight hours and heavy snow squalls with winds gusting to 100 km/hr are likely in the Great Lakes region Monday. Severe thunderstorms are likely in many areas of the eastern U.S. by Sunday, reaching the east coast on Monday, then rapid clearing on gale force westerly winds. ... My local weather on Thursday was generally clear and mild with highs near 14 C. Rain is expected by morning.

Sunday, 17 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs today at 15:17h.

TODAY ... Cloudy, still rather mild in the south and east, where it should remain dry until well into the afternoon. Rain will spread from Connacht and Donegal into Munster and rest of Ulster around mid-day, 5-10 mm likely. Highs 8-10 C north and 9-12 C south.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending as showers in north and west, becoming windy after midnight (NW 50-70 km/hr), lows 2-5 C. Rain continuing most of the night elsewhere, lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and colder with passing squally showers with some hail, snow on higher terrain. Winds NW 50-80 km/hr, highs 6-9 C.

TUESDAY ... A frosty start, some sunshine followed by increasing cloud, winds backing into the west but remaining rather strong at 40-70 km/hr. Rain will then arrive during the late afternoon or evening. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers with gusty northwest to northerly winds, lows about 2-5 C and highs 5-8 C, feeling very cold due to the winds.

THURSDAY ... Cold with isolated wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible during the early morning in higher parts of north. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY currently looking somewhat milder although nights could remain frosty, but days should feel milder, due more to slack winds than warming temperatures with lows generally -3 to +1 C and highs 7-10 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, showers developing north and west, highs 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern will be similar to Ireland with rain and gusty winds moving through early Monday and again Tuesday night or Wednesday, but some snow could fall in north and on higher ground. Highs will be generally about 8 to 10 C. Later in the week western districts will probably see some improvement but eastern regions could remain in more of a wintry north to northeast flow and highs only 4-7 C there.


Forecasts for North America

Stormy conditions will develop across the Midwest, Ohio valley and central plains states with severe thunderstorms and a sudden fall in temperatures from near 18 C to around 7 C, winds gusting from SW to about 100 km/hr. Rain and thunderstorms will develop further east and this sharp front will arrive there tonight. Cold and windy in parts of central Canada and the northern plains states. A new disturbance is moving inland from the Pacific and will bring rain to low elevations, snow to mountains across much of the western interior, although it will be dry in the southwest U.S. with seasonably mild highs there (15-20 C). My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, isolated showers, and the snow line has come down to about 400m now with highs near sea level of 7 C.

Tuesday, 19 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A cold and frosty start, some slippery roads with a few covered by slushy snow or hail in higher parts of northwest, passing sleety showers but most places will break to intervals of sunshine mid-day followed by increasing cloud, winds backing into the west but remaining rather strong at 40-70 km/hr. Rain will then arrive during the late afternoon or evening and could start as sleet on higher ground. Highs 6-10 C with the higher readings confined to west coast.

TONIGHT ... Very windy and raw with rain mixing at times with wet snow on higher ground, temperatures steady around 3-4 C at best (except for a few outer coastal locations at 6-7 C). Winds NW 50-80 km/hr will make it feel very close to freezing. Rainfalls 5-8 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain ending as showers with gusty northwest to northerly winds, 50-80 km/hr, and highs 5-8 C, feeling very cold due to the winds. Further rainfalls generally 1-3 mm, some fresh snow on hills by evening.

THURSDAY ... Cold with isolated wintry showers, some accumulations of snow in 3-5 cm range possible during the early morning in higher parts of north. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY still looking somewhat milder although nights could remain frosty, but days should feel milder, due more to slack winds than warming temperatures with lows generally -3 to +1 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A little milder next week, dry in most places for the first few days, and highs 8-11 C, slight to moderate frosts inland.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cold and windy, a few passing showers (sleety on higher terrain) and also a few sunny intervals, highs 5-8 C. Heavy hail showers may develop in sea effect bands over southwest England and north Wales.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Windy with rain, sometimes mixing with sleet or snow in north and on higher ground in south. Highs 6-9 C. Winds NW to N 60-100 km/hr in more exposed locations.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland with a very gradual warming trend, and much less windy after Thursday.


Forecasts for North America

Dry and milder in most eastern regions as the strong winds slowly moderate, lake effect snow becoming more confined to central and northern Ontario where it will remain quite cold in gusty NW winds. Very mild in most central regions as southerly winds develop ahead of a front dropping south from Montana. Heavy snow at times to the north of low pressure moving through southern Alberta into Saskatchewan (20-30 cm), highs near -10 C there. Snow also heavy across most of interior B.C. but rain on the coast ending as showers. My local weather on Monday was overcast with rain, heavy at times, and highs near 8 C.

Thursday, 21 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cold with isolated wintry showers, mainly near north coast and in higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, highs 6-9 C. Winds north to northeast 30-50 km/hr will make it feel colder in Leinster and Ulster, coastal Connacht, but less windy inland west and south.

TONIGHT ... Clear with some cloudy intervals, fog may develop inland, with patches of freezing fog, as lows fall to the -3 to +1 range. Isolated showers near north coast could become sleety inland in Ulster.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue partly cloudy to sunny in the daytime hours and clear with some patchy but dense fog and freezing fog inland, with lows generally -3 to +1 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A little milder next week, dry in most places for the first few days, and highs 8-12 C, slight to moderate frosts inland. Fog could become more frequent during this spell, and some of the fog could be persistent given the low solar angle, so highs would not reach those levels where fog fails to dissipate (a few inland valleys). However, for this time of year, the weather will become increasingly pleasant for coastal regions in particular (and that is of course where most people tend to live). It may be mildest near the Connacht coast as warmer air could reach that region from the west. There appears to be a slight risk of inversion fog conditions persisting in parts of the inland southeast despite rather warm daytime temperatures around the coasts. This settled spell may eventually end with a colder northwest to north wind as the high shows signs of drifting west in about two weeks' time. However this pattern could then return which would lead to quite a dry December.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Further sleety showers, strong northerly winds gusting to 70 or 80 km/hr, cold and raw with highs about 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland with a very gradual warming trend, and much less windy after Thursday. Fog is likely to be more widespread in part because the air mass will be colder but also because there has been more rain recently in Britain than in Ireland so the ground will be moist when skies clear.


Forecasts for North America

Cold and dry conditions prevail over much of western Canada and the northwest U.S., with just a brief interval of milder westerly winds due over the weekend, then that will be followed by another surge of cold arctic air. This pattern will stay mostly dry with light frontal snowfalls. The east will be under a less bitter seasonably cool high. There are only weak systems between the two different regimes and these will bring small amounts of sleet or rain to parts of the Midwest and central plains. The south will be closer to average although not unusually mild. ... My local weather was sunny and cold with a morning low of about -3 C and a high of just 4 C.

Saturday, 23 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some cloudy intervals and persistent freezing fog in a few locations, but otherwise mostly sunny and continuing rather cold (to very cold in areas with persistent fog). Highs at best 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Little change with clear spells, fog and freezing fog developing, lows -5 to +1 C in most locations but 3-5 C in outer coastal headlands.

SATURDAY to MONDAY ... Little change, slightly warmer each day in those areas not affected by persistent fog, highs 8-11 C. Overnight lows will vary considerably from -4 to +4 C depending on cloud cover and clear skies overhead. Freezing fog may develop inland each night.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder except perhaps in south central inland regions which could stay colder due to persistent fog or low cloud. Northern counties will feel considerably warmer by mid-week and could see highs of 12-14 C. Further south, 10-12 C will be more widespread. Lows will continue in the -3 to +3 range.

OUTLOOK ... It's quite uncertain how this persistent anticyclonic blocking pattern will break down but a northwest to northerly flow seems the most likely route, although it could take as long as two weeks to start affecting Ireland and this would come after several days of a similar breakdown further east over parts of Britain. However, the pattern could also evolve into a milder southwesterly flow, if strong lows forming on the east coast of North America totally blast away this block around the first week of December.

Due to persistent patterns and the extensive write-up yesterday, the other forecast sections will be updated again tomorrow or Monday if new details are warranted.

Monday, 25 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals mid-day, highs 8-11 C. Light and variable winds.

TONIGHT ... Light fog or mist, drizzle in a few spots, any clearing would lead to freezing fog but seems less likely now, lows 2-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... This dull, calm spell seems likely to persist with minor variations for another week so from now to about Friday look for mostly cloudy skies, mist or fog patches, highs 9-12 C milder in northwest, lows generally 2-5 C but at any time could locally fall below freezing. Friday could bring some patchy light rain with a weak front and by Saturday, it could be a few degrees colder at night and slightly colder in the daytime with a hint of a northerly breeze (stronger in Ulster) but then this mild, cloudy and calm regime will redevelop for a day or two. The models all seem to tire of this eventually and replace it with a strong westerly flow that would be mild and damp if not wet. Colder air seems to be massing well to the north and looking for any opening but so far there are no definitive signs of truly wintry weather (yet).


Forecasts for Britain

We are still in the same position of duplicating the forecasts since the regimes for Ireland and Britain are essentially similar, but when colder air moves in on the weekend, it will give Scotland a more direct shot with highs falling off to about 3-5 C there. Otherwise, most of the details would remain about the same.


Forecasts for North America

Cold and dry for most eastern regions, with fewer lake effect squalls as winds calm down under the core of high pressure. Extensive low-level moisture is seeping north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a weak storm in Texas, sleet and freezing rain likely well inland and a cold rain or drizzle closer to the Gulf coasts, all of this phasing with a weak system dropping southeast from central Canada with light snow or sleet for the Midwest as temperatures warm slightly in advance of a fresh surge of very cold air now covering most of western Canada except for the B.C. coast which is mild and dry. My local weather on Sunday featured mild hazy sunshine with a high of about 11 C.

Wednesday, 27 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, mild especially in northern and western counties, highs 9-13 C highest values in parts of Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, mild north, lows 4-7 C, some clear intervals and frosty in parts of inland south, lows -2 to +3 C. Fog patches and isolated freezing fog in those counties.

THURSDAY will see little change from the above.

FRIDAY could find the northern half of the country under a few passing showers in a moderate westerly breeze, but little change is likely further south. Highs will continue in the 8-12 C range.

SATURDAY looks somewhat cooler especially in Ulster but with more air movement there could also be more sunshine, so in some ways it may be an improvement, highs 7-11 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will then return to the current pattern although possibly with more patchy light rain and drizzle thrown into the mixture. Highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY and beyond could turn more unsettled and windy, still quite mild Tuesday then a bit colder each day from current indications, as highs slide down closer to normal values of 6-9 C. At the moment this colder turn looks more dramatic on the leading European model guidance, than on other model runs, and if it's correct, the northerly surge of arctic air could produce a few wintry showers in the north or even some accumulating snows; however, the milder signal is probably not being totally overcome and could then return within three or four days. There is also some chance that the colder turn will be less dramatic altogether.

Forecasts for Britain

The forecast will follow almost the same pattern as the forecasts for Ireland except that the weekend and later colder turns will be more pronounced in Scotland and could bring temperatures as low as 4-7 C daytime there, with hill snow possible.


Forecasts for North America

Heading for NYC, Boston or any other part of the northeast? Pack rain gear and expect gale force southeast winds today with potential for 75-125 mm rainfalls and southerly winds gusting to 120 km/hr in eastern New England (not as windy NYC to DC although breezy at times, turning gradually colder in NYC, PHL and DCA from 10 C down to 4 C). West of the major cities the storm will bring mixed precip at times, as temperatures soar to 16 C or higher east of the storm track (mostly Long Island, e CT, RI and MA, later se NH and ME) but will remain 2-5 C very close to the low's path. Today will find heavy wet snow continuing over the higher parts of the east central states along with heavy rains in the southeast states. Heavy snow or sleet will be moving in phase with the storm across higher parts of WV, MD, PA and NY into eastern ON and s Quebec (QC). Continued cold and dry in parts of the central states and eastern prairies to northern Ontario, and mild, dry weather further west except northern half of B.C. with low elevation rain showers, hill and mountain snow flurries still mainly to north of Vancouver. My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and mild with a high close to 10 C.

Friday, 29 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The northern half of the country will see a few passing showers in a moderate W-NW breeze 40-70 km/hr (some higher gusts near Ulster coasts), but partly cloudy conditions will prevail further south with W-NW breezes of 30-50 km/hr, possibly some isolated showers making it that far. Rainfalls only 2-4 mm at most. Highs will continue in the 10-12 C range in the south but could be held to 7-9 C in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with showers ending, breezy (NW to N 30-50 km/hr) and lows generally 2-5 C, possibly some isolated patchy ground frost in parts of the inland north where lows -1 to +4 C.

SATURDAY looks somewhat cooler especially in Ulster but with moderate NW to N breezes at 30-50 km/hr there could also be more sunshine, so in some ways it may be an improvement, morning lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will then return to the current partly cloudy and mild pattern although possibly with more patchy light rain and drizzle thrown into the mixture towards the northwest coast at least. Highs 10-13 C. Some patchy light frost may develop inland south each morning, but for most places lows will be around 2-5 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will become more unsettled and breezy, still quite mild Tuesday then a bit colder each day from current indications, as highs slide down closer to normal values of 8-10 C Tuesday, 7-9 C Wednesday and Thursday. Some showers likely especially in northern counties.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (6th-8th) seem likely to become quite cold with sharp frosts in the -6 to -3 C range, daytime highs 2 to 5 C, and moderate northerly winds especially over Ulster and Leinster as the cold spell begins. Some wintry showers may develop in streamers coming inland from the Atlantic around Donegal Bay and parts of east Ulster too. Less widespread wintry showers are possible further south, but a fair amount of cold sunshine will be likely as high pressure builds up close to the west coast. This cold spell seems unlikely to last beyond three days and it could become rather mild within a few days.


Forecasts for Britain

The forecast will follow almost the same pattern as the forecasts for Ireland except that this weekend and then the 6-10 December colder turns will be more pronounced in Scotland and could bring temperatures as low as 4-7 C daytime there, with hill snow possible (and by the December cold outbreak highs could be close to freezing with lows well down below -6 C). The colder period after 6 Dec may also be more severe in all regions of Britain as they remain in a stronger north to northwest wind flow and possibly see more extensive sea effect snow showers forming over the Irish Sea, which would favour north Wales and Cornwall-Devon for heavier amounts on high ground at least.


Forecasts for North America

A very weak system (within a day it appears as a 1035 mb low over the Great Lakes) will still manage to produce a few centimetres of snow in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes after bringing 5-10 cm to the eastern prairies and northern plains states early today. The cold will hang tight for most of eastern regions with this new disturbance having almost no milder air along for the ride, and highs will remain generally -5 to -1 C in much of the region trending to 8-13 C near the Gulf coast and 12-17 C in Florida. This chill is set to moderate slowly over the next three or four days as the west has only slightly milder air masses available, with highs generally about 20 C in the south to 5-8 C in southern B.C. and Alberta. My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with traces of light rain during the evening hours, highs near 7 C.

Comet ISON was largely pulled apart as it rounded the Sun, apparently, but some fragments remain and there is an outside chance of some event becoming visible at least in binoculars next week.

Sunday, 1 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy and mild although with some patchy light rain and drizzle thrown into the mixture towards the northwest coast. Highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals mainly inland south and west where some patchy light frost may develop but for most places lows will be around 2-5 C.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals, highs 9-12 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will become more unsettled and breezy, still quite mild Tuesday then a bit colder each day from current indications, as highs slide down closer to normal values of 8-10 C Tuesday, 7-9 C Wednesday and Thursday. Some showers likely especially in northern counties. These will become heavier and merge into spells of blustery rain on Thursday as winds increase to 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (6th-8th) seem likely to become quite cold with sharp frosts in the -6 to -3 C range, daytime highs 2 to 5 C, and moderate northerly winds especially over Ulster and Leinster as the cold spell begins. Some wintry showers may develop in streamers coming inland from the Atlantic around Donegal Bay and parts of east Ulster too. Less widespread wintry showers are possible further south, but a fair amount of cold sunshine will be likely as high pressure builds up close to the west coast. This cold spell seems unlikely to last beyond three days and it could become rather mild within a few days. It can be added today that some of the models have begun to downgrade the cold spell but the leading European model has continued to feature it for at least Friday and the weekend (6-8 Dec) with a gradual milder trend to follow.

As things remain similar to yesterday's outlook for Britain and North America, those forecasts will be updated again tomorrow. My local weather on Saturday was generally damp with some steady rain at times, foggy and around 7 C.

Tuesday, 3 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud although mostly overcast, with isolated showers, some more persistent light rain developing later in north but amounts only 2-4 mm, highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals developing towards morning, rather cold with lows 2-4 C and a few pockets of frost with lows near -1 C in central counties.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, somewhat colder again, with afternoon highs 6 to 9 C. Breezy by afternoon especially in northern counties where winds will pick up from west at about 40-60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Becoming windy and turning colder still especially in Ulster where mixed or wintry showers are possible. Otherwise showers likely to be either rain or hail except on high ground in south and west. Winds increasing to WNW 50-80 km/hr and some gusts to about 110 km/hr on north Ulster coasts and all higher terrain. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs about 4-5 C north, 7-8 C south.

FRIDAY ... Wintry showers during early morning hours in parts of Ulster and a sharp frost in many places away from south and west coasts, not as windy but still quite breezy and cold, although turning milder by afternoon in west Munster. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs about 5 C except 8-10 C in west Munster as winds back from strong westerly to southwest. In the north, early morning wind gusts will remain in the 80-100 km/hr range before abating during the day on Friday, but it will be much less windy in general further south.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend will see gradually milder weather returning in stages from southwest to northeast, highs reaching about 9 C on Saturday and 11 C on Sunday in the south and west, perhaps only 7 to 9 in east and north. This trend should continue most of next week in a generally southerly flow although if winds happen to back to southeast at any point this could drop the temperatures by several degrees. Also there may be a tendency for nights to be somewhat frosty in parts of the inland east while quite mild further west due to variations in cloud cover. The suggestion of a return to bitter cold has almost vanished from the guidance now, and where there is a hint, it's on a different model (GFS) than yesterday's strong signal on the European model. On the other hand, some of the model runs get into very mild solutions that see the source of the air flow in the western Mediterranean region -- if those were to verify temperatures could reach the mid-teens in some areas by end of next week.


Forecasts for Britain

In general, the picture is similar for Britain although when the cold air does arrive Thursday it will come in much stronger in Scotland on W-NW winds that will reach speeds of 80-120 km/hr with widespread snow showers and some blizzard conditions possible there. From northern England and Wales south into Cornwall and Devon, the risk of wintry showers will also be greater then, but for eastern and southern England the cold will be mainly dry and it will only be slightly stronger and more prolonged (into about Saturday), after which the same warming trend and comments about later next week apply. Some parts of southeast England could see frost and fog at times during the week as they will be closer to the stagnant high located over central Europe.

Note also, the Thursday night to Friday track of the low across the Baltic region will bring an intense and possibly damaging wind storm to parts of Holland, northern Germany, southern Denmark, southern Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states. Winds could gust to 140 km/hr in places from a westerly direction, and it will turn progressively colder with blowing snow. North of the low's track across most of Norway, Sweden and Finland, Estonia and western Russia could see heavy snowfalls although not as windy from the northeast at about 70 km/hr.


Forecasts for North America

Blizzard conditions will move gradually southeast away from western Canada and into the northern plains states, to be followed by slow clearing in biting northeast winds, and temperatures as low as -20 to -30 C. The heaviest snow by later today and tonight will be in the Dakotas and Minnesota where 20-40 cm could fall. Much colder air will flood south into most parts of the western U.S. although the southern half of Arizona and New Mexico will stay relatively warm at 20 C. Cold air will also spill out to the west coast as far south as central California. Showers will develop across southern California with mountain snows. Meanwhile, the central plains and Midwest will turn much milder briefly, with highs 12-17 C. This milder trend will be weaker near the east coast although eventually they will also get a day or two of above normal temperatures before this vast cold spell pushes further east and south to reach almost all regions except Florida by the weekend, albeit losing some of its intensity in eastern regions where highs will eventually fall to about -10 C.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy and cold, with a few snow showers reported around the district although not at my location (yet). The high was 4 C and it is now -2 C with a cold northeast wind blowing.

Thursday, 5 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Anyone with clear skies this evening will catch a lovely view of Venus and the crescent new moon in the southwest right after sunset. These will be even closer together for viewers in North America later (at the same time of day). The very bright object high in the sky around midnight is Jupiter.

ALERT for strong wind gusts spreading southeast into Leinster this morning, but peak gusts will occur soon (around 0800h) and speeds will decrease by mid-day. Peak gusts of about 110 km/hr will occur in exposed locations but may not exceed 70 km/hr in parts of the south.


TODAY .... Very windy until mid-day, and turning quite cold in the north, mixed wintry showers and winds W-NW 70-120 km/hr, abating to 40-70 km/hr by afternoon, morning temperatures 8-10 C will drop quickly later this morning and settle into the 4-6 C range with showers turning to sleet or snow on higher ground ... partly cloudy, isolated showers, rather cold further south, winds W-NW 50-80 km/hr in some parts for part of the morning but abating to only 30-60 km/hr later, highs 7-11 C mostly before mid-day as temperatures fall gradually this afternoon. Peak winds likely around 0800h then a gradual improvement.

TONIGHT will become very cold especially in Ulster and Leinster, inland Connacht, where lows could reach -3 to -5 C, and a few locations may see accumulations of snow, for example Glenshane Pass and some higher parts of Donegal and Mayo. South and west will see lows -2 to +1 C and a few mixed wintry showers especially on hills. Not as windy but some gusts to 40 km/hr from NW backing to W later.

FRIDAY will stay quite cold in Ulster and Leinster, with the strong winds gradually abating to W 30-50 km/hr, and a few more wintry showers, with highs 4-7 C possibly not reached until evening. The south and west will turn milder especially by afternoon and evening. Highs there will reach 8-11 C.

SATURDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, mild with a few showers in the north but largely dry elsewhere, morning lows 3-7 C and afternoon highs about 9-12 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and very mild, lows 3-7 C and highs 10-13 C.

NEXT WEEK will remain very mild and temperatures could reach 14 or 15 C at times in the south and west. The north and east could have slightly cooler readings 10-13 C due to a slight easterly component to the generally south winds. There is no really strong signal of an end to this mild spell beyond the range of the models and I think it could persist beyond Christmas Day and perhaps even reach New Years Day but it will break down then with much colder weather in early January. Some models want to bring very cold air west again, but the leading European model seems to be having none of that except in the Balkans and parts of Italy. Still, we should note that the outlook past mid-week is lower confidence than in some cases, but my feeling is that mild weather will prevail until about the 28th (after this brief cold snap) before
a change takes place around New Years.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will feature very strong winds across Scotland and northern England, with temperatures turning sharply colder in those regions, dropping steadily to reach 2-4 C and colder on high ground with accumulations of snow in gale to storm force west veering northwest winds, gusts to 140 km/hr possible. The south and central portions of England and most of Wales will be less extreme with moderate W-NW winds 55-90 km/hr and passing showers only wintry on higher ground, highs 4-8 C. Note that severe windstorm conditions will sweep across the North Sea and Baltic regions later today and snow will be widespread in Scandinavia. Hamburg, Germany could see severe storm surge conditions this afternoon or evening, and Holland, Denmark, the Malmo district of southern Sweden (and Baltic islands), also Germany, Poland and Lithuania could see widespread wind damage.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will stay rather cold in most of Britain, the milder trend in Ireland will push slowly into Wales and southwest England but won't make very fast progress further east. Highs will be near 5 C on Friday and 7 C on the weekend, on average, although milder than that in Wales and southwest England, colder in Scotland.

OUTLOOK is for milder, cloudy and at times foggy weather, rather mild although not as mild as in Ireland, except perhaps in a few parts of the southwest, due to an inversion that could keep temperatures around 5-8 C in parts of eastern England. There is potential for highs of 11-14 C in western regions of England and in Wales, and 9-12 C in western Scotland and northern England. If the low-probability colder solution develops, it could then turn bitterly cold but this will probably not be the case.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow that brought 80 cm to parts of Minnesota near Lake Superior on Wednesday, will move northeast today through northern Ontario into central Quebec. Colder air will seep around this weakening storm system and stall around Toronto to St Louis to Dallas as a new storm develops over Texas, bringing widespread severe freezing rain to the south central states and later into the Tennessee valley region. Light snow will redevelop further north and over the central Rockies. A second storm will follow this one in about two days and bring another swath of freezing rain and snow. Bitter cold will remain in place over the central and northern plains, prairies of Canada and increasingly into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions also. The east coast of the U.S. will stay a bit milder although not far from early December normals (5-8 C) and some light rain is likely there. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and frigid at -2 C daytime high, -7 C night.

Saturday, 7 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, moderate WSW winds 30-50 km/hr, highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, drizzle or light rain in parts of west and north, lows around 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, mild, moderate SW winds 30-50 km/hr, a few showers mostly in northern counties, highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will continue mild or very mild, highs 11-14 C, a few intervals of rain developing towards Tuesday night, winds generally S to SW at 30-50 km/hr although 50-70 km/hr near exposed parts of the west coast by mid-week.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will become more unsettled and breezy to windy, continued very mild with highs 11-14 C, winds increasing at times to S-SW 60 to 100 km/hr as fronts pass. Around Saturday 14th there could be a strong wind event as deep low pressure tracks close to Mayo and Donegal, but details on this will remain sketchy until perhaps mid-week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern looks to remain mild or very mild through the Christmas holiday period, with a few unsettled intervals but rainfall generally a bit below average for December. My research indicates that it could turn fairly cold after New Years with increasing chances for snow in the period around 8-12 January.


Forecasts for Britain

Except for somewhat slower warming trends over the weekend (especially in Scotland) the forecasts are similar for Britain and the next two weeks seem likely to be largely snow-free with a lot of settled weather and the possibility of fog most nights in the southeast, with temperatures perhaps a little lower there as a result of lingering low cloud or fog. Western portions of Britain will be well above 12 C at times this week and perhaps also the following week.


Forecasts for North America

Sleet or snow will continue to move northeast in waves this weekend, tracking from around Oklahoma and Arkansas to the mid-Atlantic states into Long Island and southern New England. North of this there will be some dry, partly cloudy and cold weather in the Great Lakes and Midwest, followed by light snow by Sunday, and clear, very cold conditions across most of the central and western states as well as most of western Canada. Temperatures have fallen to record low values in many places each night for the past few days and it is currently very close to -40 (C or F) in parts of Alberta as well as higher parts of Montana and Wyoming. Cedar City, Utah, had a record low that was 10 deg lower than previously recorded over a century ago (this partly due to unusual snow cover there). Meanwhile, my local weather is also unusually cold but snow-free, the high on Friday was a bone-chilling -3 C under clear skies and with a biting N-NE wind.

Monday, 9 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, very mild, a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain but little accumulation, highs 11-14 C, with moderate southerly winds about 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild with mist or fog patches, drizzle, lows 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks in east and south, drizzle or light rain west and north, very mild, highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue very mild with just light, patchy rain in a few places each day, and southerly winds continuing. Highs 11-14 C and overnight lows staying quite high (6-10 C).

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy at times, showers, not quite as mild although still above average at 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is more chance of rain next week but it appears likely to continue very mild with highs in the lower teens. This pattern shows no real signs of breaking down until around the last few days of the month.


Forecasts for Britain

The pattern over Britain will also be very mild and the nights will be generally mild also, but could be somewhat colder in the southeast if skies happen to clear during the evenings, then also some dense fog could develop. But in general it's a similar picture with highs into the lower teens and possibly as high as 15 or 16 C in a few spots.


Forecasts for North America

East coast cities will see a bit of rain briefly but snow or sleet will return by tonight and Tuesday, after temperatures peak near 10 C. The Midwest and northern plains states will stay very cold with outbreaks of light snow (3-5 cm or less) with highs near -5 C south to -15 C north. This very cold air remains locked in over most of western Canada with just slight variations as weak systems pass, one of these is bringing 5-8 cm of snow to parts of Alberta and later Montana today. Temperatures are near -20 C except close to the foothills where it's slightly milder. The west coast is turning slightly milder with light snow turning to sleet, and the southwest states are also recovering from recent severe cold but at a slow pace. My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold again with a high of about -2 C.

Wednesday, 11 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, then a partial clearing trend, very mild, highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with fog and drizzle developing, very mild, lows 7-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, mild, highs about 13 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm will begin to break the dry spell.

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers, mild, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy at times with showers turning to periods of rain later Saturday, then some partial clearing by Sunday with more showers to follow. Highs each day around 11-12 C, winds reaching SW 50-80 km/hr at times late Saturday, easing somewhat for part of Sunday, then quite windy again late Sunday into Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy and mild, possibly turning very windy for Monday night into Tuesday 17th. Another windy event seems likely before Christmas as storms develop off the east coast of North America and race northeast in a strong jet stream. Temperatures will tend to vary between very mild (12-14 C) in warm sectors to about 7-9 C between systems as a slight mixing from Greenland enters the parade of weather fronts.

For Britain & North America, check yesterday's forecasts, as they were generally valid for several days and have not changed much. A major snowstorm may develop this weekend from the Midwest to the inland northeast U.S., before that, it will be quite cold with light snow in those regions. My local weather on Tuesday was once again a mixture of light (wet) snow and drizzle with a slight accumulation of 2-3 cms now. It appears likely to melt later today.

Friday, 13 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds Saturday in northwest, and ADVANCE ALERT for several periods of very strong winds to follow, details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Breezy or windy, intervals of rain to showers, mild although falling back closer to normal values, morning highs near 12 C. Temperatures will probably fall off slightly in west and north by afternoon. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm with blustery showers at times, slight risk of hail or thunder.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy (S-SW 60-100 km/hr) in west and north, not quite this windy for east and south (40-70 km/hr), intervals of rain becoming heavy at times by morning, 15-20 mm potential, lows 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy at times with showers turning to periods of rain later in the day, highs 11 to 13 C. Very windy in Connacht and west Ulster (SW 60-90 km/hr with a few gusts to 110 km/hr) during the morning, easing slightly for the afternoon. The winds will be less extreme in the east and south but will produce some gusts to 90 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, another interval of strong winds developing, SW 70-110 km/hr, spreading more widely across east and south this time. Highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming much cooler with falling temperatures during the day from near 10 C in the morning to near 5 C afternoon, possibly as low as 2-4 C in north and northwest by evening. Showers will be blustery and could contain hail and (on high ground) sleet, winds veering westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... After a rather cold start with the risk of sleet on higher ground (morning lows 1-4 C) temperatures will slowly rise and peak near 13 C in the evening or overnight hours as winds also rise to gale force S-SW 60-110 km/hr with bursts of heavy rain (20-30 mm possible). This storm will continue into Wednesday morning.

OUTLOOK ... Another sharp temperature drop is likely by later Wednesday into Thursday in westerly winds gusting to 80 km/hr. Then it will turn milder again towards the end of the week. This variable and quite windy (borderline stormy) pattern will probably continue through Christmas and the timing at this point is rather uncertain, but on balance I think that another milder push from the southwest will dominate Christmas Day with much colder spells to follow as winds veer more westerly. This parade of fronts may eventually tilt around to more of a northwesterly flow by New Years, and I think we may see some more wintry conditions developing early in January.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will start out very mild as the record warmth experienced in Ireland moves east (highs 14-16 C in southern England today) then showers or periods of rain will follow with gusty southwest winds developing.

The outlook is very similar to Ireland with increasing chances of rain and gusty winds into the weekend and storm potential next week. At first it will be Scotland getting most of the strong winds (some gusts to 120 km/hr by Saturday and again on Sunday evening), but by mid-week the gales or storm force gusts may spread south to cover Wales and much of England. After a long dry spell this week to two week period will see a gradual return to normal rainfall amounts.


Forecasts for North America

TODAY will see outbreaks of snow developing in the central plains states and Midwest, with local snow squalls in the Great Lakes region turning to steady snow overnight and Saturday. This snowfall event will cover the Ohio valley and inland northeast through the weekend and could bring 5-15 cm snowfalls from Chicago to Boston and most points inland west of PHL-DCA, sleet or snow in NYC. The southeast will turn a bit milder with rain then colder air will arrive late Saturday. The northern plains and eastern prairies will remain very cold (-20 C or lower) and light snow will fall but heavier snow will move across northern B.C. into central Alberta and then drop southeast, while milder chinooks bring a thaw to southern Alberta and most of Montana/Wyoming. Rain is spreading inland in southern B.C. and Washington state, but it's largely dry and mild further south (although very cold at night over previous snow cover in parts of Nevada and Utah). ... My local weather on Thursday was mild enough to melt most of the snow at 4 C and light rain falling at times.

Sunday, 15 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for the growing potential of a severe wind storm on Wednesday night, with westerly gusts to at least 130 km/hr. A close watch is being maintained on this system which would develop in the wake of a storm currently moving through the northeast U.S. and expected to be in the central Atlantic by Tuesday. Although that one will end up near Iceland, models are fairly unanimous in pointing to strong development on Wednesday to the west of Ireland and emergence of a 950 mb low set to track through Donegal Bay towards the Hebrides. One model (GFS) is already showing the potential for hurricane force wind gusts in Connacht and west Ulster on Wednesday night, so we are concerned. Stay tuned.

TODAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, another interval of strong winds developing, S to SW 70-110 km/hr, although fortunately more severe gusts will remain offshore to the northwest. Highs 10-12 C. Winds easing slightly during the afternoon but remaining quite breezy.

TONIGHT ... Showers may become heavy again and by late overnight some may become wintry on higher ground in the west. However, at lower elevations where most people are, lows will remain 5-7 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming much cooler with falling temperatures during the day from near 9 or 10 C in the morning to near 5 C afternoon, possibly as low as 2-4 C in north and northwest by evening. Showers will be blustery and could contain hail and (on high ground) sleet, winds veering westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... After a rather cold start with the risk of sleet on higher ground (morning lows 1-4 C) temperatures will slowly rise and peak near 13 C in the evening or overnight hours as winds also rise to gale force S-SW 60-110 km/hr with bursts of heavy rain (20-30 mm possible). This storm will continue into Wednesday morning, then ease briefly before resuming with greater intensity.

WEDNESDAY ... There is considerable risk of an intense windstorm developing as a secondary low forms in the wake of Tuesday night's frontal system, and tracks close to the northwest coasts by evening. We can be more certain that the day will be at least very windy and showery with highs around 10 C. Gusts could potentially reach 130 km/hr or higher from the WSW veering westerly. A close watch is being maintained on this system which would last most of Wednesday night on current guidance.

THURSDAY ... Strong winds likely to continue in the 60-100 km/hr range, somewhat colder again as winds veer more westerly, lows 2-4 C and highs near 8 or 9 C at best.

OUTLOOK ... A milder surge will return around Friday with strong south to southwest winds and rain developing, highs near 12 C, then the following weekend will probably continue gusty and unsettled with slowly falling temperatures, possibly cold enough for some higher ground hail or snow showers although at this stage I don't expect widespread low-elevation snow to develop as highs will stay around 7 C at least. Looking further ahead, another storm seems likely around Christmas and once again some of the guidance shows this one being very intense, so something to monitor although of course too far off to be that precise. As I've been saying for days, I feel that it will stay generally rather mild except for the strong wind chills, until near the end of the month, then it may turn significantly colder for New Years into early January 2014.


Forecasts for Britain

Similar trends to Ireland, today's stronger winds only hitting parts of Scotland and northwest England with full force, but each potential windstorm "down the road" would also hit most of Britain quite hard as well, and with those wind speeds, not very long after hitting Ireland. The Wednesday night event would be worst in northern England to central and western Scotland, spreading south on Thursday into Wales and the Midlands. It could be exceptionally severe for the Western Isles.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow has covered most of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes regions and will continue most of today in Ontario, upstate New York and New England. Where the snow has changed to rain, it may change back to snow before ending. Amounts of 20-35 cms are possible. Colder air is flooding south behind the storm and will cover most of the central states today keeping highs below freezing. Milder air continues to push east from the Pacific coasts across the Rockies and will generate a "clipper" type low late tonight that will then race southeast to reach the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. Meanwhile the southwest U.S. is enjoying some milder sunshine except over higher plateau areas that are snow covered. My local weather on Saturday was a rather drab low cloud and fog with drizzle and highs near 8 C.

Tuesday, 17 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for the continuing potential of a severe wind storm on Wednesday night, with westerly gusts to at least 130 km/hr in parts of the west and north, 110 km/hr generally for other regions. It may be possible to be more precise later today or in the morning forecast tomorrow, readers should factor in that this system has barely begun to form and will have a very rapid development cycle on Wednesday.

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs today at 9:29 a.m. which means it will have set in Europe, but near the zenith in North American skies where visible.

TODAY ... After a rather cold start with the risk of sleety showers this morning on higher ground in the north, temperatures will slowly rise to near 8 to 10 degrees by late afternoon (and will then peak near 12 C in the evening or overnight hours) as winds also rise to gale force S-SW 60-100 km/hr by sunset, with bursts of heavy rain developing after some sunny intervals earlier in the day.

TONIGHT ... Windy with periods of rain, 20-30 mm possible. Mild, with temperatures rising then steady in the 9-12 C range. Winds SSW 40-70 km/hr but with some higher gusts near 90 km/hr continuing.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and some thunder or hail in blustery south to southwest winds during the day, morning lows 9-11 C and temperatures then steady most of the day, winds SSW 50-80 km/hr veering to WSW 60-100 km/hr. ... There is considerable risk of an intense windstorm developing by evening, and gusts in parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster could potentially reach 130 km/hr or higher from the WSW veering westerly. Gusts to 110 km/hr would be expected elsewhere in this scenario but the details on this event may change. Strongest winds would be felt around 9 p.m. to midnight. Galway to Dublin could see some very strong gusts around midnight. Rainfalls 10-15 mm. The rest of the night would likely stay very windy with squally showers and lows 3-6 C. Some overtopping of seawalls likely at or around high tides especially on west coast.

THURSDAY ... Strong winds likely to continue in the 60-100 km/hr range, somewhat colder again as winds veer more westerly, lows 3-6 C and highs near 8 or 9 C at best.

OUTLOOK ... A milder surge will return around Friday with strong south to southwest winds and rain developing, highs near 12 C, then the following weekend will probably continue gusty and unsettled with slowly falling temperatures, possibly cold enough for some higher ground hail or snow showers by Sunday, although at this stage I don't expect widespread low-elevation snow to develop as highs will stay around 7 C at least. Looking further ahead, it will remain breezy to windy with temperatures 8-10 C and yet another storm seems likely around Christmas -- this morning's guidance has at least relaxed a bit on the theme of apocalyptic wind speeds but it makes many weather observers nervous to see so many different computer models toying with intense lows here and there, as one could actually happen in this pattern -- beyond Wednesday night's rather strong event, however, there is nothing too definite about damage potential with any of these.

Will resume forecasts for Britain and North America tomorrow, not much has changed from yesterday's comments. One thing of note is that a fairly active winter storm is indicated for the south central U.S. this weekend and there could be a wide mix of precipitation types in the Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes when it moves northeast. Meanwhile my local weather on Monday was benign, mostly dry but cloudy and mild, 10 C.

Thursday, 19 December, 2013

ALERT for some scattered outbreaks of snow or sleet during the morning commute that could cause some icy or slippery roads, combined with some glare from bright sunshine, could cause rapid changes in visibility and that might make some of your fellow drivers erratic even if you're not, so expect the unexpected. Also, there could be some road debris left over from fallen trees and other hazards at least until mid-morning when I would expect most minor situations will be improved. An ADVANCE ALERT would probably be needed for strong winds but they will likely be almost constant so let's just say that the next six or seven days will be mostly on the windy side and occasionally very windy, details may be hard to pin down with different models having somewhat different timetables, but Friday night, late Sunday into Monday morning, and Tuesday all appear more windy than the intervals in between.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, passing showers of snow or sleet will become increasingly mixed with hail or rain, some temporary coverings of 1 to 3 cms this morning, melting fairly readily by mid-day, cold in a brisk westerly wind of about 40-70 km/hr. Highs 5 to 8 C with the colder readings in higher parts of the inland north.

TONIGHT ... Windy, a few showers, turning a bit milder after a cold start, temperatures near 2 C rising to about 7 C before sunrise, as winds begin to back into the southwest at 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder with periods of rain developing, some heavy falls possible (20-30 mm) by late afternoon or evening, winds SSW 60-110 km/hr with some severe gusts possible by evening. Highs 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and squally with passing showers of rain or hail, turning to sleet on high ground later in the day, as temperatures fall slowly from morning readings near 10 C to evening values of 3-5 C. Winds westerly at about 70-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, breezy then becoming very windy again later, SW 80-120 km/hr in exposed regions of west and north, otherwise 70-100 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Very windy during the early morning with rain and possible thunder, gusts to 130 km/hr in exposed locations, then some clearing and continued rather windy all day, a few showers developing, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

WED (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy, possibly stronger winds developing, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY (St Stephens Day) ... At this point yet another windy day seems likely with periods of rain and possibly sleet or snow on higher ground as it will turn somewhat colder, temperatures in the 2-7 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder with increasing chances of wintry precipitation and near-freezing temperatures towards New Years, however there is some chance of a continuation of the current mix of temperatures.


Forecasts for Britain

The trends will be very similar with these fast-moving systems generally bringing stronger winds to northern England and southern Scotland than further south, but otherwise would expect very similar temperatures and conditions most days, snow mainly confined to higher ground if travelling.


Forecasts for North America

Milder in most of the Midwest, Great Lakes and eastern states, although only near normal at 4-7 C. Quite mild across the southeast and south central states with some sunshine breaking through cloud, 14-17 C to about 22 C Florida. Outbreaks of snow in the north-central plains and central Rockies, and clearing, turning colder further north into central Canada. Rather bland and near normal temperatures on the west coast, but a somewhat unusual storm system is developing over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico. This will bring high elevation snow and valley showers there, but when it moves gradually out into the plains states this weekend, it may create a messy mix of freezing rain, ice pellets and snow across the Midwest and Great Lakes by the weekend, while pumping up unseasonably warm air into the eastern states and Ohio valley. Christmas holiday period appears likely to return to very cold conditions after this system moves through by Monday 23rd.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals, although it was snowing in nearby mountains. Rather chilly with gusty northwest winds, highs near 6 C.

Note to early risers: If it's clear off to the west and still dark out, you'll probably see the nearly full Moon and bright Jupiter close together heading towards the western horizon. I just viewed them here as they were rising in the east-southeast.

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