Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 28 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny to start, with increasing cloud by afternoon, some showers spreading gradually into western counties, highs 17-20 C (warmest around inland southeast). Winds steady S-SW 20-35 mph in exposed locations.

TONIGHT ... Frequent showers or periods of rain, 10-15 mms likely. Lows near 12 C. Winds moderate southerly veering southwest later, 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Frequent showers, occasional thunder or hail possible, 15-25 mms of rain on average, some heavier amounts possible central counties. Highs around 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Morning showers, then partly cloudy, isolated afternoon showers mainly northwest inland regions. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY to TUESDAY ... A warm, dry spell still appears likely, with a bit of marine cloud near the west coast at times. Highs 19-22 C in many places and limited coastal cloud or fog.


Forecasts for Britain

Showers ending today, then some sunny intervals later, rain again tonight and much of tomorrow with highs today about 17-21 C, overnight lows 9-12 and highs tomorrow near 19 C. Some heavy rainfalls possible in Wales, west Midlands, inland south. Gradual improvements on Thursday, then the warm dry spell likely to dominate from Friday on.


North American forecasts

Isaac has been reluctant to reach hurricane intensity despite minimal wind shear and few obstructions in the region, perhaps later today this will occur before landfall tonight cuts off further development. A moderate storm surge and heavy rainfalls are likely (much of the moisture is currently on the south side of the storm). Landfall may take place over far eastern Louisiana but the largest impacts appear destined for the MS coast and Mobile Bay in Alabama.

Meanwhile, widespread frontal rains have spread into the east-central states and will link up with Isaac by tonight. Otherwise, it is warm and dry across much of the continent especially central regions, with a few scattered monsoon storms over the inland southwest, and weak showery fronts spreading inland across British Columbia into Alberta. Temperatures will be near 32 C in parts of central-western Canada and the northern plains states ahead of a weak frontal trough.

My local weather on Monday was mostly sunny with patchy high cloud and a pleasant high near 20 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 30 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, more sunshine south of Limerick to Dublin, passing showers mostly confined to north, and an afternoon clearing trend for the south and west, in moderate NW winds 20-40 mph, becoming less blustery in the south around mid-day. Highs 15-18 C, warmest near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool, lows 4-7 C, temperatures likely to rise in the western half of the country after midnight as cloud moves in, with coastal drizzle (near 10 C). Light winds for most.

FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine and warmer in parts of the south, cloudier north with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and highs 17-20 C, warmest east and southeast inland.

SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, coastal low cloud and drizzle mainly northwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Warm sunny intervals for parts of the south, feeling hot in some inland southern and central counties, highs reaching 23-25 C. More cloud in west, central and north, highs near 20 C inland and 17-19 C coastal.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warm to hot spell could last quite a while into the new month in the south, inland. Our summer's highest temperature contest may not be settled for a while yet. Kirk is expected to become a hurricane east of Bermuda this weekend but its further evolution seems most likely to be a rapid weakening in the central Atlantic during the following week with only a limited, if any, effect on Ireland. The next storm that forms south of Kirk might eventually become a player in the eastern Atlantic in about two weeks' time.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers, isolated hail and thunder, breezy to windy, highs around 17 or 18 C for most, 19-21 C southeast. Some severe storms are possible in the east Midlands and northeast England.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, showers ending, lows 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland with a warm or even hot spell developing in parts of the south and central England, Wales. More cloud and drizzle in a warm, muggy southwest flow further north. Highs could reach 24-27 C in some parts of southern England during this spell and it could last much of next week.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy rains continue today in parts of LA, MS, spreading to AR, TN as weakening Isaac slogs north, soon to be downgraded to a tropical depression. A large area of warm to hot, dry weather holds firm across central and northern parts of the U.S. and adjacent southern Canada. Highs will reach 32-35 C in many places and 35-42 C in some parts of the south-central plains states. Under the cloud and rain it's a muggy 26 C but the main issue there is 100-200 mms of additional rain (the further north this goes, the more it changes from a problem to a blessing to drought-parched regions like the Ohio valley. The rainstorm will probably bring 50-100 mms as far north as Indiana, Ohio and parts of Michigan and southern Ontario by the weekend, which in the U.S. is Labor Day (Monday), in Canada Labour Day obviously quite different. )

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with the odd bright interval and a few sprinkles of rain, looked showery off to the north at times with towering cumulus embedded in a general stratocumulus cloud deck at about 3500' ... the high was about 19 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 1 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine in most regions early, lasting to mid-day in the south and east, becoming partly cloudy then overcast, with an interval of drizzle or light rain, possibly missing a few parts of the south but giving 2-5 mms to parts of the north and west, where brighter intervals could develop again by late afternoon and evening, generally warm and humid. Highs between 18 and 22 C with highest values likely near the south coast and inland southeast.

TONIGHT ... Rain or drizzle at times in the southeast, foggy or misty by morning, cloudy but some clearing later in the west and north. Mild with lows around 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning fog or mist, drizzle ending in southeast before noon, hazy sunshine developing from west to east, becoming warm away from the coasts where some low cloud or fog will be persistent ... highs 19-23 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine inland south, increasing cloud elsewhere, outbreaks of light or moderate rain possible especially for Connacht and west Ulster. Warm especially inland south and east with highs 20-24 C. Overnight a period of stronger SW winds and rain could brush parts of the northwest, and this risk extends into Tuesday morning there, due to remnants of "Kirk" although this storm could have disintegrated by the time it passes Donegal Bay as part of a frontal wave. Rainfalls generally slight but could reach 5-10 mms in parts of Ulster.

TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and a few showers in Ulster, clearing to partly sunny or hazy sunshine, morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs 19-22.

OUTLOOK ... Further warm and in some parts sunny weather seems likely once this frontal wave containing remnants of Kirk moves past, with higher pressure building up again. Highs could remain in the lower 20s for some, 18 to 20 C in general. It is still too soon to speculate on the final stages of expected strong hurricane "Leslie" (already a tropical storm) that appears destined to recurve near Bermuda and pass eastern Canada in about two weeks. If it evolves a bit faster, it could become a factor in Irish weather patterns later in the second week of September or around the weekend of 15-16 September and in fact the current 15-16 day GFS model charts show a very strong low near Iceland as the final result with a 30-40 knot westerly gradient for Ulster at that time trending to 20-30 knots in the south. This will be a situation to watch.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm in many places, low cloud more likely in some west coast districts, highs generally 20-23 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy at times, rain spreading into western regions later, only about 2-5 mms, lows 12-16 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY ... Southern regions should be mainly warm and dry with some hazy sunshine breaking through rather widespread mist and cloud, highs about 22-24 C inland. More cloud, drizzle or light rain at times further north, and the risk of a period of stronger winds and rain arriving on Monday night in western Scotland from "Kirk." (seems appropriate that Kirk would make landfall in Scotland) ... FURTHER OUTLOOK warm and dry in many places later in the week, highs 22-25 C inland, 19-22 C coastal.


Forecasts for North America

The heavy rainfalls from remnants of "Isaac" will now move northeast into parts of IL-IN while tapering off in Missouri and Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. The southeast will become warm and dry, with increasing cloud further north ahead of the rain. Continuing warm to hot, and dry further north in the eastern Great Lakes, New England. A few isolated storms will develop in parts of western Canada but otherwise most central and western regions will be warm and dry.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to sunny at times, with a few towering cumulus visible to west and north (hail reported about 100 kms northeast of here) and the high about 21 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 3 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine inland south and east coast, increasing cloud elsewhere, outbreaks of light or moderate rain possible especially for Connacht and west Ulster (from weak remnants of "Kirk"). Warm especially inland south and east with highs 20-24 C. Afternoon and early overnight a period of stronger SW winds to 30-50 mph, and rain could brush parts of the northwest; this risk extends into early Tuesday morning there, rainfalls generally slight but could reach 5-10 mms in northern parts of Ulster. Many parts of the south will remain dry.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear breaks persisting in the south, any lingering showers likely to be brief and amounts only 1-3 mms at most, some southern locations remaining dry. Lows 10-13 C as winds veer to westerly at about 15-30 mph (30-50 mph north) then drop off later.

TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and a few showers in Ulster, cloudy intervals further south, clearing to partly sunny or hazy sunshine, highs 19-22.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm with some coastal low cloud or fog, lows 7-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Partly sunny although cloudier north, warm, morning fog or mist. Highs about 20-23 C after morning lows 6-9 C. Some drizzle could fall near north and northwest coasts but otherwise it should remain dry.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern will stay rather warm although a little more unsettled by next weekend, and into the following week. Any rainfalls should be brief and slight in amounts. Models continue to show a strong extratropical low from "Leslie" crossing the Atlantic around the 12th to 14th with some indications on model runs earlier today of an intense storm potential for Ireland 14th-15th ... this has been downgraded on the 00z GFS but the ECM keeps us in suspense with its final day showing Leslie moving east at about 45 deg N, beginning to phase with a larger low near Iceland. In any case these are little more than interesting scenarios at this time range, much could change between now and this time next week when a more reliable forecast might be possible for Leslie.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy and warm, becoming windy later in the day across Scotland and parts of northern England (SW 30-50 mph) with an interval of light rain by this evening. Highs 23-26 C south to 17-20 C north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some fog patches inland south, rain at times further north where quite windy (WSW 30-50 mph), mild. Lows 11-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers mainly north, a bit cooler in fresh westerly winds 30-50 mph north, 15-30 mph south. Highs 19-22 C south, central incl Wales, and 15-17 C in Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Dry and warm for most as high pressure builds up, highs around 21 to 23 C and rather cool at night with extensive fog developing, lows 5-8 C in rural sections and 8-12 C in cities.


Forecasts for North America

Remnants of Isaac continue to weaken south of the Great Lakes but a weak front sliding southeast across the Great Lakes will tend to amplify the rain somewhat later today. Another low has formed south of Nova Scotia from another section of Isaac's original circulation (the part that moved up the east coast) and this will now be the main remnant feature. Dry and warm again across most central and western regions, especially across the Rockies and west coast.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 22 C. Warmer temperatures are in the forecast for the rest of this week (25-28 C).

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 5 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and becoming warm by mid-day and afternoon, with some coastal low cloud or fog possible at times in Connacht and Ulster, with highs 17-21 C. Warmest inland southeast and west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches developing, chilly. Lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Partly sunny although cloudier north, warm, morning fog or mist. Highs about 20-23 C after morning lows 6-9 C. Some drizzle could fall near north and northwest coasts but otherwise it should remain dry.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The pattern will stay rather warm although a little more unsettled by the weekend, with stronger SW winds developing and an interval of showers or rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning, clearing gradually later on Sunday at least in western districts, although showers may persist longer in the east, with highs near 21 C Saturday and 18 C Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The verdict for next week has changed more to an unsettled pattern with frequent showers and temperatures near normal. The North American models now take "Leslie" well north across Newfoundland before turning the extratropical storm east around Greenland and Iceland. However, these models do allow development of a strong low in the wake of that evolution closer to Ireland, once again around the weekend of 15th-16th but meanwhile the ECM brings "Leslie" across Newfoundland then creates a complex series of frontal troughs in which the energy is fairly continuous through the second half of the week for Ireland. None of these model efforts are too convincing yet, and basically anything could happen (this storm is becoming more powerful but moving very slowly, which creates a large potential for error in position and track, also now we have a weaker system, "Michael" located to the east-north-east in the central Atlantic, interacting with "Leslie" over the 3-5 day period.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly sunny except for an interval of cloud in parts of Wales and west Midlands this morning, remnants of which cloud may spread towards the southeast mid-day. Highs 20-23 C. Scotland may be somewhat cooler in stronger westerly breezes and isolated showers near west coast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chilly especially away from the southeast, lows generally 6-9 C but 9-13 C in London and the southeast.

OUTLOOK ... Dry and warm for most as high pressure builds up, highs around 21 to 23 C and rather cool at night with extensive fog developing, lows 5-8 C in rural sections and 8-12 C in cities. Showers by Sunday morning into later Sunday and then unsettled next week.


Forecasts for North America

Widespread heavy showers in eastern Canada and parts of the Great Lakes and northeast states, with a second area developing Midwest and western Great Lakes by evening. Somewhat cooler across western Canada except for west coast, but holding on to very warm and dry conditions across the west and most of the central U.S. as well as border regions of the Canadian prairies. My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and very warm, 24 C at my location, about 18 C closer to the harbour where I noticed quite a strong sea breeze that didn't make it a further 10 kms inland.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 7 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy across parts of the north and west with a slight risk of showers, otherwise partly cloudy with sunny intervals developing and warming up to about 19-22 C in moderate southwest winds 15-25 mph (some higher gusts developing near west and north coasts).

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches developing south, cloudy north with light rain or drizzle at times. Lows around 10-12 C north, 6-9 C south.

SATURDAY ... More cloud than sun except for a few locations in the southeast, some light rain at times in coastal northwest. Mild to warm again with morning lows 8-11 C and highs 19-21 C. Rainfalls only 2-5 mms at most and south/east likely to remain largely dry.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud with showers and risk of a thunderstorm developing, lows 7-10 C and highs 16-18 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mms likely.

MONDAY ... Windy and turning considerably cooler with showers including some hail and thunder, wind gusts to 45 mph from WSW veering NW later. Lows near 7 C and highs 14-17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and somewhat milder again in stages, becoming more settled in the south mid-week but eventual outcome of both "Leslie" and "Michael" continues unresolved -- the early models are somewhat similar to their first approximations several days ago, of a strong low crossing the Atlantic, although now somewhat further north on the weekend of 15-16 September. The ECM model is now weakening both hurricanes around Newfoundland very rapidly but other disturbances form ahead of them in a gradually increasing westerly flow.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated brief showers mainly in west and north-central (Cumbria in particular), highs around 21-24 C (16-19 C in Scotland).

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with fog patches, lows 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers developing north and west by evening, warm. Highs 23-27 C.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming rather windy in the south on Sunday and Monday and very windy in parts of Scotland, considerably colder especially north and central, highs 13-16 C north and 16-19 C south.


Forecasts for North America

Hot and humid in southern states but turning cooler in central plains, Midwest with severe thunderstorms developing along a cold front. Cool and dry northern plains and parts of Canadian prairies, continuing very warm and dry in far west. Also rather hot in eastern states trending to near normal in Great Lakes region.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and hot although with low humidity so the evening has cooled off reasonably quickly. The high was about 27 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 9 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

"Leslie" has finally begun to move north and should be past Bermuda by tonight, then moving across southeast Newfoundland on Tuesday. The models are now finally converging on a solution not that different from their first approximation as discussed here a week ago, namely, a strong windstorm across northern regions late in the week. However, the timing now looks more like Thursday 13th. And the current expectation is that very strong winds will head more for northern Scotland although it seems likely to be quite gusty in exposed parts of Donegal, Mayo and other parts of the northwest.

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, outbreaks of light to moderate rain, slight risk of thunder. Moderate southerly winds 20-30 mph at times with higher gusts towards evening in the southwest. Highs 16-18 C. Rainfalls generally 6-12 mm, potential for 20 mms in a few spots.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, some clearing but clouding over again later, lows about 10 C in a moderate southwest wind.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud and frequent showers likely, some with hail and thunder, rather breezy but quite gusty at times in the far north (W 25-45 mph there, otherwise 15-30 mph). Highs 15-17 C. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm.

TUESDAY ... Continuing windy and rather cool with frequent showers, winds WNW 20-40 mph, some higher gusts, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers, possibly becoming very windy by evening and overnight. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy, some severe gusts possible in north, showers rather squally at times. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy, isolated showers. (could continue to be windy depending on actual timing of post-tropical Leslie/Michael remnants). Lows about 7 C and highs about 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... If this timing proves correct, the further outlook is likely to be more settled by the weekend. There is still some chance of a slower evolution of the unsettled and windy period, so confidence is not yet very high, but the weekend could turn out fairly pleasant in this scenario.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, some showers developing, more steady rainfall in parts of Wales and Scotland. Highs 19-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers, becoming windy, SW 30-50 mph at times, lows 8-10 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy, unsettled, chilly especially Scotland. Highs only 14-17 C south and 10-13 C north.

OUTLOOK ... Very windy across Scotland and possibly parts of England and Wales by mid-week, as remnants of Leslie and Michael arrive. Gusts to 70 or 80 mph possible in exposed parts of north and west Scotland, otherwise, gusts to about 45-55 mph in exposed locations further south. Frequent showers.


Forecasts for North America

TODAY ... The very active front that hit New York and Washington earlier Saturday is now well offshore except in eastern Canada where it will stall and become wrapped up with oncoming Leslie (and Michael, which will probably weaken fast and slide into the whole mess somewhere near St John's Newfoundland on Tuesday). Otherwise, many parts of western-central North America hot and dry now, ahead of a series of weak fronts moving inland across British Columbia early today. Temperatures will be held down to 17-20 in B.C. with widespread showers that will feed some heavy storms late today in Alberta. Further east, highs of 30-35 C widespread in the Canadian prairies and northern-central plains, Rockies, trending to 40-43 C in parts of the southwest.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny (despite increasing high cloud) and continued hot with a high of 30 C. Feels fresher out now, the high cloud has become a weak front further east now and a stronger push of cool, marine air is just to the west now. Saw the lunar occultation of Jupiter event, the planet skimmed past the Moon's north pole around 0400h Saturday and at my latitude just failed to move behind the Moon as would have been seen further south in this time zone. Venus is still very bright and the Moon will move past around Wednesday morning here.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 11 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

"Leslie" is now approaching the south central coast of Newfoundland and will be close to the south tip of Greenland by tonight. The guidance continues to suggest a glancing blow for northern parts of Ireland late Thursday, as the very strong winds will head more for northern Scotland early Friday. I continue to expect maximum wind gusts in Donegal around 55-60 mph from the current maps, Thursday evening or early Friday morning. Further south, would expect maximum gusts 40-50 mph. However, still on alert as this situation needs to be watched closely and there is still a slight risk of damaging wind gusts by Thursday.

TODAY ... Continuing windy and rather cool with frequent showers, a few with hail and thunder, and winds WNW 20-40 mph, some higher gusts near west coast to 50 mph, and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and cool, a few showers and lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy (SW veering WNW 20-40 mph), showers or periods of rain, possibly becoming very windy (W 35-55 mph) by evening and overnight. Highs near 18 C. Rainfalls 10-15 mms.

THURSDAY ... Windy, turning quite warm across the south in brisk southwest winds, some sunshine inland and east coast, then later some severe gusts possible in north, showers developing late afternoon or evening and becoming rather squally at times. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C for northern counties but 19-21 C possible south. Strongest winds likely around 6-9 p.m.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy, isolated showers. Lows about 7 C and highs about 15 C. Winds abating to moderate westerly by afternoon.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend looks more settled with some sunshine both days and highs around 18 C. Nights may be quite cool. The following week looks warm at first in a south to southeast backing flow, followed by the possibility of showers from some remnant of the energy from "Michael" which now appears as though it may meander well clear of "Leslie" and feed into a trough picking up a low near the Azores, while the next tropical system, likely to be named soon "Nadine" moves northwest more towards Newfoundland.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers, risk of hail or thunder, chilly, strong westerly winds in Scotland and northern England (30-50 mph) trending to moderate further south (20-40 mph). Highs only 11-14 C north, 14-17 C south. Some isolated severe storms possible.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain developing, cool. Lows 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very windy across Scotland and possibly parts of England and Wales by Thursday night, as remnants of Leslie arrive. Gusts to 70 or 80 mph possible in exposed parts of north and west Scotland on Friday morning, otherwise, gusts to about 45-55 mph in exposed locations further south. Frequent showers. Highs generally 13-15 C north and 17-21 C south although it could turn warmer on Thursday especially in the Midlands and south central England inland. (25 C possible). A warm spell likely from weekend to mid-week then showery.


Forecasts for North America

Warm and dry across much of the central and eastern U.S. and adjacent southern Canada, as a cold front begins to lose steam across the northern plains states and stalls out in the southwest. Pacific northwest states and western Canada windy and cool with showers mostly over higher terrain. Apart from a few isolated storms along this front, much of the "lower 48" states will remain dry. Windy and wet in far eastern Canada especially Newfoundland as "Leslie" moves through, 50-150 mms rain likely.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy becoming sunny, with showers mainly over surrounding peaks. It was quite cool compared to last week with highs only 15-17 C and a moderate to strong west wind.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 13 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for risk of wind gusts in excess of 50 mph across northern regions, mainly this evening and overnight. The energy from "Michael" has blended into the cloud mass associated with former TS "Leslie" and the combined energy just might be enough to get wind speeds into the 35-55 mph range in some parts of Ulster and Connacht. We are watching closely to monitor the very small risk of more damaging gusts that seem more likely headed for Scotland (where damage probably won't occur in the regions impacted, everything there is built for stronger winds than they will see from this event).


TODAY ... Cloudy periods, some local drizzle west and north coasts mainly, partial clearing developing south-central especially inland to east coast, and becoming warm, humid especially across southern and central counties, winds increasing gradually to reach SW 30-50 mph by late afternoon (40-60 mph north). Highs will reach about 21 C in parts of southeast amd possibly 23 C south of Dublin where the downsloping factor may boost readings, 17-19 C most other places, but only 15-17 C north.

THURSDAY NIGHT ... Remnants of Leslie will brush past the north coast and could produce a few gusts to 65 mph from a westerly direction, with a band of moderate rain making some slight advance south but tending to fragment to scattered showers before reaching most of central Ireland. Some southern locations will remain dry, otherwise, 3-7 mms rain on average. Winds will peak about 35-49 mph in gusts further south. Overnight lows 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, one or two showers, breezy to windy, WNW 20-40 mph (higher gusts north), highs 15-17 C. Some longer sunny intervals seem likely to develop in the south and perhaps also in the east.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer again, morning lows 6-9 C and afternoon highs 19-22 C. Cloud, drizzle and sea fog may impact some northern and northwestern coastal districts.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, with showers, chance of a thunderstorm, breezy, lows 10-12 C and highs near 17 C. Winds WSW 30-50 mph.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Cool and breezy in a west to northwest flow of 20-35 mph, showers at times, highs only 14-17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another settled interval should develop later during the week but there could be some near frosts or even ground frosts before a milder period, meanwhile, the outcome of new tropical storm Nadine is still quite uncertain but not likely to affect Ireland before late next week, if at all. Models do show a fairly wet period resulting but it's too far out to be very confident that this solution is even approximately correct given the variables in play.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, increasing southwest winds, becoming quite stormy late afternoon or evening in Scotland where gusts could reach 75 mph or higher around midnight. Warm in south by afternoon. Highs 19-22 C south to 14-17 C north. Strong winds will only arrive in south well after sunset.

TONIGHT ... Windy with showers or periods of rain heavier in Scotland, northern England where 10-20 mms possible, lows 8-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy (strong gusts Scotland during the morning), showers but also some clear intervals, winds W 30-50 mph. Highs 17-20 C.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, similar if slightly slower evolution.


North American forecasts

Dry and warm weather now moving into the east ahead of a slowly developing frontal trough that will bring more organized rainfalls to parts of Great Lakes, Midwest and central plains. Heavier rains at times spreading north from Gulf, but east coast largely dry and sunny. West coast now warming under high pressure, with cool windy conditions inland west and Canadian prairies.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and while quite chilly to start, the afternoon was relatively warm at 22 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 15 September, 2012
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Astronomy note: New moon occurs tonight at 03:12 a.m. Sunday (IST).


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals for most, pleasant with highs 16-19 C. More cloud likely in far north with some mist or drizzle near Atlantic in some parts of northwest. Breezy again by afternoon (WSW 15-30 mph).

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with rain spreading rapidly across the country from west to east, about 5-10 mm likely. Moderate southwest winds and lows 9-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain heaviest morning to mid-day in Leinster, then partly cloudy, a further 5-10 mms on average in eastern counties, some afternoon sunny breaks or brighter intervals developing, but isolated showers mainly in Connacht, west Ulster, with winds veering to west 20-35 mph, and afternoon highs 15-17 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, rather cool, winds generally westerly at about 20-40 mph, a few showers but rainfalls only about 3-7 mms on average, morning lows 5-8 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, cool. Lows 5-8 C and highs near 15 C. Winds WNW 25-45 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and cool with morning showers, afternoon sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C, winds NW 20-40 mph.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy and cool, risk of ground frosts inland, daytime highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cool. Models are still showing "Nadine" meandering around near the Azores for several days although the GFS now wants to bring a remnant low into the Biscay region before the end of the month.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... A few morning showers in east clearing, with pleasant sunshine in south and west including Wales, highs near 17 C. Cloudy north, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, highs near 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain arriving west and north. Lows 10-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Highs near 17 C on average.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per the above forecast for Ireland.


Forecasts for North America

Showers or periods of rain moving through the northeast states with a clearing and cool trend for Great Lakes and Midwest. The weather gradually warms across the central U.S. towards the Rockies and west coast, but a secondary cold front is bringing even cooler weather to the eastern half of the Canadian prairies, with Alberta near normal and B.C. warm in a subtropical high pressure pattern (large diurnal ranges outside the major cities).

My local weather on Friday continued excellent with sunshine and a high of about 25 C, as high cloud spread in from a distant front well to our north. This should dissipate but we could see some morning low cloud before the warm spell resumes later Saturday. Expecting 28 C on Sunday.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 17 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy with a few light showers, then a band of heavier showers affecting Connacht and west Ulster mid-day, some remnants of these heavier showers may reach other districts later. Rainfalls generally about 2-5 mm but could reach 5-10 mm in the northwest. Rather breezy at times with winds WSW 20-35 mph. Highs 13-16 C north, west and 15-18 C south, east.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear breaks, showers dying out, lows about 7 or 8 C in moderate WNW breezes 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and cool, winds NW 20-40 mph, occasional showers or longer periods of rain in some western counties, rainfalls 5-10 mm, and highs about 14-16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, some longer bright or sunny intervals developing, showers becoming confined to north then dying out but a secondary band of light rain possible in the northwest late in the day. Morning lows 3-7 C and highs 14-17 C. Isolated ground frost possible.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, chilly. Morning lows in rural areas only 2-5 C and about 5-8 C elsewhere, highs 13-15 C. Light to moderate northerly winds developing.

FRIDAY ... Mostly dry but considerable cloudiness, morning ground frosts with lows about 2-5 C and highs 13-15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming unsettled again, rather cool in a northwest flow, highs about 12-14 C. The current indications are that "Nadine" will circle around once it reaches the eastern Azores later this week, heading away from Europe and back towards the south-central Atlantic, then north into the regions east of Newfoundland. A weak remnant of this storm could be a factor in Irish weather in about two weeks' time. However, there is a very slight chance of a different path that brings Nadine into the Biscay region in about a week. The UK model is currently hinting at this but most of the other global models are on the other plan mentioned.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy south, highs near 18 C. Showers central and north, breezy, cool, highs near 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers at times, lows 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy, cool, frequent showers. Highs 12-15 C north and 15-18 C south. Winds WNW 30-50 mph in exposed locations.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per the above forecast, although Wednesday could remain showery in the east all day.


Forecasts for North America

TODAY ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms are developing from the central and western Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, with warm and dry weather near 30 C on the east coast until some time tomorrow when this front arrives. Chilly in north central states and most of the Canadian prairies, highs only 13-15 C. Warm to hot and dry on the west coast and inland to about the crest of the Rockies, highs 24-27 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm with a high near 25 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 19 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers tending to move east with partial clearing in south but a secondary area of rain will then move into Connacht and west Ulster later in the day. Winds backing to SW 10-20 mph, a little milder in the south, with highs reaching 16-18 C there, but staying cool in the north, highs about 13-15 C. Rainfalls about 2-5 mm south to 5-15 mm north.

TONIGHT ... Rain, heavy at times moving across northern and some central counties (mostly north of a Galway-Dublin line), 10-15 mm in places, more showery further south, some places could remain dry although misty. Lows will thus be warmer in the north (7-11 C) and coolest inland south (3-7 C) but also rather mild around the coasts. Rainfalls in the south only trace to about 3 mms.

THURSDAY ... Rain ending around mid-morning (north)west, afternoon east (including much of Leinster), although amounts across the south especially southwest, slight, as most of this system will continue to be north of a line from Galway to Dublin (possibly more like Athlone to Wicklow by mid-day through afternoon). Rainfalls of about 7-15 mm possible in Ulster, trending to trace amounts in southwest. Afternoon highs 13-16 C for most, 16-18 C south. On Thursday night the rain will be fragmenting to light showers and the southeast will be under what remains with 2-4 mm amounts.

FRIDAY ... Any remnant rain or drizzle in southeast clearing, otherwise partly cloudy skies developing from north to south, a chilly start with isolated frost in north-central counties, lows 0-5 C, but held up to 5-8 C by cloud in the southeast, followed by afternoon highs only 12-15 C in all areas. Winds rather light but a trend towards northerly breezes then calm at night.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, showers may be developing west (see Sunday discussion), morning lows about 3 C and afternoon highs about 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain may develop with highs 13-16 C. This weather system is challenging the various global models so bear in mind that it could turn out rather fragmented and weak, or on the other hand well-organized with moderate or even heavy rainfalls. With "Nadine" likely to become trapped near the Azores or even backing away to the south, the most likely outcome is a separate low, forming not far to the northeast of Nadine, then moving up through Biscay on Saturday night towards the Irish Sea or southern England. This situation will remain rather uncertain until perhaps Friday. The latest European model as well as the GFS have weakened or dropped this system but it is still on the GEM and UK models. If the system fails to materialize the weather may be relatively dry with just weak fronts pushing across from the west rather than moisture from the south.

The outcome for "Nadine" is also quite different on the various models. The GFS takes it on a long meandering path around Portugal next week and it only dies out totally in about ten days. Other models show it moving back to the southwest and back into the subtropical central Atlantic well to the southwest of the Azores again.

OUTLOOK ... The following week looks rather cool and unsettled at first, but a less showery trend will develop mid-week with higher pressure edging into the picture, temperatures 1-3 degrees below normal values. This would imply a return of scattered frosts well inland.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy and cool, some southern counties largely dry but Wales and central England showery, then further north a few intervals of light rain. Highs only 12-15 C north, to 16-19 C south.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some clear intervals, local frost south central inland, remaining cloudier north with intervals of rain spreading in from Ulster. Lows 2-6 C inland south, 7-10 C elsewhere.

OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to the above forecast for Ireland with a brief dry spell around Friday-Saturday then cool and unsettled again by next week. If Nadine or any other low were to follow the Biscay track into south central England on Sunday, some parts of southern England could get a soaking downpour of 20-40 mm. This heavy rain will spread north into Scotland by Sunday night or Monday but it will remain showery in the south in chilly northwest winds.


Forecasts for North America

TODAY ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms moving out of the Great Lakes and northeast, Mid-Atlantic states by morning but remaining to some extent stalled over the southeast, while spreading into New England and parts of eastern Canada. A weak high will spread partly cloudy to sunny weather into regions vacated by the rain, but this will last only one day before a secondary low arrives from Minnesota where it will be turning cooler again during the day with a second push of chilly air moving south. This covers most of western Canada east of the Rockies and the northern plains states, but it remains warm to hot and dry in the far west.

My local weather on Tuesday was once again sunny and very warm, or even hot, with a high about 25-27 C (trending warmer inland, 20 C at the seafront in a rather strong sea breeze). Despite this heat the nights are quite cool, it had already fallen to 15 C at 10:30 pm here.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 20 September, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for possible heavy rain and strong winds by Monday covering large parts of the country. Details are still somewhat sketchy but model consensus is increasing, and a looping track will bring these effects to most regions at various times. This storm is not "Nadine" which now seems more likely to stall over the Azores and then back away to the south or southwest, but the storm expected in Ireland breaks away from Nadine's cloud mass later today or Friday morning, and in any case will become about as strong as Nadine might be on a similar track. Watch for updates as we get closer to this event on Monday. The system has slowed down somewhat from yesterday's early forecast and this will leave more of the weekend dry although first effects of the system will be felt later Sunday. ... Each global model has a slight variation on the theme of this storm system looping around and the UKMO does not bring it as far north which would leave Ireland in northeast winds throughout, whereas the ECM makes a wider loop that would be reflected in stronger winds from a southwest direction at some point. The other models are somewhat intermediate. This situation will be interesting to follow but the chances of a severe storm event are rising to the 50-50 range now, at least for some coastal regions.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain gradually ending across the north-west, and tapering off to drizzle by afternoon in central, east and northeast (including much of Leinster), although amounts across the south especially southwest, slight, as most of this system will continue to be north of a line from Galway to Dublin (possibly more like Athlone to Wicklow by mid-day through afternoon). Rainfalls of about 7-15 mm possible in Ulster, trending to trace amounts in southwest. Afternoon highs 13-16 C for most, 16-18 C south.

TONIGHT ... Rain will be slowly fragmenting to light showers and drizzle and the southeast will be under the last remnants with 2-4 mm amounts, trace amounts elsewhere, and some clearing late in Ulster, leading to patchy ground frost. Lows 3-7 C north to 7-10 C south.

FRIDAY ... Any remnant rain or drizzle in southeast clearing, otherwise partly cloudy skies developing from north to south, a chilly start with isolated frost in north-central counties, some sunny breaks mid-day and afternoon with highs only 12-15 C in all areas. Winds rather light but a trend towards northerly breezes then calm at night.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with some good sunny intervals possible before becoming more overcast, showers possible near west coast by evening ... morning lows about 2-6 C with scattered ground frost, and afternoon highs about 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... The morning may be dry for most of the north and west, with drizzle moving into the southeast. Cold to start with frosts in Ulster and Connacht inland, lows -1 to +4 C, but 5-8 C southeast. Increasing cloud with showers or periods of rain by evening, 5-10 mms possible, and highs 13-16 C. Winds generally light at first then increasing to E-NE 20-40 mph.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain and moderate or even strong winds developing as low pressure loops around from Britain and across western counties by Monday night. Rainfalls 20-40 mms possible, lows near 8 C and highs 12-15 C, with cyclonic winds tending to increase more dramatically at a distance from the low centre where winds could be quite slack. As the track is not that certain, the best idea at present is to alert all districts to some potential for strong winds, but more likely NE winds in the north and SW winds in the south around this low. Some model depictions suggest potential for wind gusts above 50 mph.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain, NE to N winds of about 20-30 mph, chilly with lows near 7 C and highs 10-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slow improvements but rather unsettled and cool for several more days, eventually the possibility of frosts returning.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy for most, some brighter intervals south, frequent showers central and occasional light showers south. Highs 14-17 C. Turning quite chilly by afternoon or evening in Scotland, temperatures falling to 6-9 C by evening.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing north, frosts developing, lows -2 to +3 C inland Scotland and north-central England. Cloudy further south, light rain or drizzle, lows 5-8 C. Misty south, lows 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers moving further south, partial clearing across north-central regions, cool. Highs 12-15 C north to 15-17 C south.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, morning frosts possible, fog patches. Highs about 15-18 C south. Further north, highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Stormy at times with heavy rainfalls, strong east winds becoming more northeast then swirling around to west or southwest. Temperatures steady 12-14 C and rainfalls 30-40 mms in many places.

OUTLOOK ... Cool, unsettled, breezy.


Forecasts for North America

TODAY ... Showers, breezy in Great Lakes region, quite cool with winds veering SW to NW-N 20-30 mph, highs only 12-15 C. Some sunshine further east along the Atlantic coast fading to cloud later, 18-20 C. The chilly air mass will be centered in Saskatchewan and Manitoba where highs only about 12 to 15 C, and will extend well south of the border towards the south-central plains but the Gulf coast will remain warm to hot; the front is somewhat inactive across those regions although a sharp windshift can be expected. Sunny and very warm to hot further west, marine cloud beginning to encroach in a few coastal sections.

My local weather on Wednesday was once again sunny, hazy and very warm with highs about 23-25 C in a slight sea breeze.

UPDATE (2) _ Thursday, 20 September, 2012 _ 7:45 p.m.
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The ECM more or less "holds serve" on the Monday storm although the loop is now slowed down to the extent that the strongest winds would likely develop late overnight into Tuesday morning. Some very strong NE winds would affect northern England and Scotland on Monday and could reach parts of Ulster briefly but on the depicted track, most of Ireland would see gradually increasing S-SW winds that look strongest around Cork and Kerry while Connacht and perhaps Donegal would see a period of strong NW winds as the low moves west towards them. This is going to be a challenging event to forecast and to explain as a lot of the development will occur somewhat opposite to normal Atlantic low patterns. That is, of course, if the ECM supported by the GFS are correct. The ECM also brings "Nadine" into southern Spain around Tuesday and then northeast across France (as a presumably 30-40 knot tropical depression becoming extratropical) into southern England. This might provide another looping storm involving our forecast by end of the week, but I continue to have doubts about this European destination given the known tendency of the LGEM model to handle such tracks better (and it takes the storm back towards Bermuda).

This is going to be a very interesting set of forecasts, will be checking other threads for your ideas (post them there as this thread gets a lot of mobile access, thanks.)

UPDATE _ Friday, 21 September, 2012 _ 8 p.m. IST
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The autumn equinox occurs on Saturday 22nd at 1450h UT or 1550h IST and if you're wondering why it's not today, the autumnal equinox is almost always on the 22nd or 23rd, the reason is related to the somewhat slower movement of the earth around the Sun in summer. The March equinox would appear even earlier except that we have a short month in February for the opposite reason, the earth travels fastest in n.h. winter.

Mother nature apparently jumped the gun on that seasonal change in some parts of the hemisphere (not here) ... meanwhile, the update on the Monday to Wednesday storm potential is that all models are continuing with their earlier themes and a somewhat slower evolution has crept into the timing, so would expect the heaviest rain Monday night and Tuesday, with mainly northeast winds for Ireland although on some models there would be a period of backing (N to NW) gales in the southwest quadrant of Ireland while the low was both deepening and moving west towards Leinster (or Ulster, the consensus has shifted south on this). Also, Nadine is now abandoned to the Atlantic Ocean and her European visit is off again. That was being advertised for about Friday but by then Nadine could actually be closer to Bermuda than Iberia. It may eventually slog north and come at Ireland as a weak remnant low from the more normal west to east direction. The ECM is still trying to bring it east but I suspect the consensus trend will win out. However, Nadine could be wandering around somewhere not far from the Azores for quite some time.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 23 September, 2012
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ALERT continued for possible heavy rain and strong winds from late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday covering large parts of the country. Details in forecasts, but in general the looping weather system could bring total rainfalls of 30-50 mm and some local wind gusts of 45-55 mph. This storm will likely reach its peak intensity Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The morning may be dry for most of the north and inland central to west, with drizzle moving into the southeast and light rain in west coast regions by afternoon. Cold to start with frosts in Ulster and Connacht inland. Under variable cloud, highs about 13-15 C but some places could stay cooler with low cloud cover. Increasing cloud with showers or periods of rain possible by afternoon into evening mainly in Wexford and nearby parts of south Leinster, 10-20 mms possible by midnight. Winds generally light at first then increasing to E-NE 20-40 mph.

TONIGHT ... Rain will edge further north but will be largely confined to coastal Wexford, Wicklow with 10-15 mms possible there. Light rain or drizzle could break out elsewhere with slight amounts. Cold and windy, lows near 7 C and winds NE 20-35 mph.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain and moderate or even strong winds developing as low pressure loops around from Britain and across western counties by Monday night. Rainfalls 20-40 mms possible but amounts before evening generally 5-15 mms, highs 12-15 C, with moderate to strong winds developing from the northeast at 30-50 mph with some potential for higher gusts especially in Ulster by late afternoon. Strong northwest winds will develop in Donegal and Mayo late in the day (35-55 mph) and similar but backing to west in Clare and Kerry. Some parts of east Ulster and north Leinster could have intervals of thundery rain and torrential downpours as the low deepens over northern England during the evening.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Windy and wet with some thunder in north, rainfall totals may increase by another 10-20 mms in places, and winds from the northeast at 30-50 mph, easing near the storm track when the low centre approaches east Leinster. Strong winds continuing across the west (NNW 30-50 mph) and occasional westerly gusts to about 40 mph south coast. Lows near 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud south although mostly overcast, cloudy elsewhere, further showers or periods of rain, continued heavy in Leinster during the day, storm totals of 50 mms or more possible (additional rainfalls then of about 15-25 mms) ... the strong winds of Monday night easing during the day (Leinster could remain in light winds for much of the day), some regions of south in cyclonic swirling wind pattern, then changing later by NE to N winds of about 20-30 mph, chilly with highs 10-13 C. Local flooding may develop after prolonged heavy rains.

WEDNESDAY ... Showery and cool, northerly winds 15-30 mph, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slow improvements to partly cloudy and cool for several more days, even a slight chance of a second significant low that would represent whatever is left of "Nadine" -- models are beginning to converge on a weaker solution that either strands the remnants south of the Azores high, or brings a remnant north towards Iceland and northwest Scotland (by 2-3 Oct).

Winter forecast posted in winter 2012-13 thread ... preliminary ideas ... generally a mild start with some colder intervals in December and January, trending to much colder in February when snow could become more of an issue. I will post a final seasonal forecast mid-October.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY, TONIGHT into MONDAY ... A dry start for most, rain edging north into Cornwall and Devon, then moving faster northward by mid-day, reaching Wales and Midlands by afternoon or early evening. Stormy at times with heavy rainfalls, some thunder embedded, strong east winds becoming more northeast then swirling around to west or southwest. Temperatures steady 12-14 C and rainfalls 30-40 mms in many places. Details depend on track but strongest winds (E-NE 40 to 60 mph) likely to hit North Sea coasts and eastern Scotland during deepening phase Monday, and possibly coastal Wales and southwest on Tuesday from a south to southwest direction.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather cool, unsettled, breezy. Highs 14-17 C.


Forecasts for North America

A pleasant fall day across most of the U.S. with scattered showers and cool northwest winds in parts of the Great Lakes region. Temperatures generally a bit below normal in the east, and considerably above normal south-central and western regions. Coastal low cloud breaking up in parts of B.C. and Washington to return those regions to warm sunshine.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with highs near 19 C. Hazy but clear intervals overnight and hazy sunshine, 22 C expected here on Sunday.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 24 September, 2012
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds later today, overnight and Tuesday, storm totals of 40-80 mm possible, in parts of Leinster and Ulster, 20-40 mm west Ulster, Connacht, Munster. Winds northeast 30-50 mph in exposed locations (by later afternoon and overnight) with risk of isolated storm force winds 45-65 mph coming inland around Balbriggan across parts of Meath, north Dublin. Also very windy at times in Donegal. Non-severe wind gusts expected in most of Connacht and Munster.

Situation update: 985 mb low currently east of Bristol heading north with torrential rain over most of Wales. Increasingly, the rain with this system is shifting to the west side of the circulation. Model consensus has shifted to a tighter "loop" track towards the Isle of Man then back to southwest, that keeps the deepening low over the Irish Sea and possibly near the Wexford coast by late Tuesday before it weakens and moves away on Wednesday. The ECM and GEM have the low over central Britain then move it southwest through Wales towards Wexford. Development continues as upper level low pressure moves rapidly southeast to interact with this surface low. A separate trough near the west coast will be pulled into the larger circulation soon. Heavy rain will spread west and a "rainfall max" or convergence zone could develop from about Belfast south towards central Meath and north Kildare. This zone could also be closer to the coast, depending on which model handles this best. West of that feature, banded moderate rainfall is likely in a northerly flow. Although it is still a "nowcast" situation to some extent, it does seem likely to be a relatively severe rain and wind event for parts of Leinster.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY (MONDAY) ... Periods of rain and moderate or even strong winds developing as low pressure drifts northwest into the Irish Sea. Rainfalls will be generally light until mid-day then may become rather heavy in the east, with 20-40 mms possible by midnight but amounts before evening generally 5-15 mms. Cold and windy with highs 12-15 C, with moderate to strong winds developing from the northeast at 30-50 mph with some potential for higher gusts especially in Ulster and north Leinster by late afternoon. Strong northerly winds will develop in Donegal and Mayo late in the day (35-55 mph) while in Clare and Kerry moderate NW winds of 20-40 mph can be expected, Galway Bay around 30-50 mph NNW. Some parts of east Ulster and north Leinster could have intervals of thundery rain and torrential downpours as the low deepens over northern England during the evening.

TONIGHT ... Windy and wet with some thunder in north, rainfall totals may increase by another 15-30 mms in places, and winds from the northeast at 30-50 mph, possible increasing at times to 45-65 mph in a zone from around Balbriggan southwest into north Kildare. Strong winds continuing across the west (NNW 30-50 mph) and occasional westerly gusts to about 40 mph south coast. Lows near 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud south although mostly overcast, cloudy elsewhere, further showers or periods of rain, continued heavy in Leinster during the day, storm totals of 40-80 mms possible (additional rainfalls on Tuesday then of about 15-25 mms) ... risk of heaviest rain in a convergence zone situation just west of Dublin. Rather cold with highs 10-13 C. Winds may ease slightly near the southeast coast but many places could have strong winds at times all day from a N to NE direction, 35-55 mph in exposed areas and 20-40 mph generally. Local flooding may develop after prolonged heavy rains. This seems to be most likely Tuesday morning.

Flood risk seems greatest in Down, Armagh, Louth, Meath, Dublin, Kildare, Westmeath and nearby parts of Monaghan, Cavan, Longford.

WEDNESDAY ... Showery and cool with some hail or thunder in a few locations, northerly winds 15-30 mph, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slow improvements to partly cloudy and cool for several more days, even a slight chance of a second significant low that would represent whatever is left of "Nadine" -- models are beginning to converge on a weaker solution that either strands the remnants south of the Azores high, or brings a remnant north towards Iceland and northwest Scotland (by 2-3 Oct).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Heavy rain across Wales and nearby parts of western England, where winds rather light due to proximity of low centre, otherwise showers with some brighter intervals in gusty southeast winds 30-50 mph. Also some heavy bands of rain across southern Scotland where winds likely to be strong easterly at times 40-60 mph. The southwest counties of England will see thundery showers at times and strong SW winds 35-55 mph. Temperatures steady 11-13 C in the heavier rain, otherwise 13-16 C, and rainfalls 30-60 mms in many parts of Wales.

TONIGHT ... Some continuing heavy rains in Wales, showers redeveloping further east and gusty SW winds for most, light winds in Wales, strong SE winds in Scotland. Lows 7-9 C. Further rainfalls of 20-40 mms in Wales could produce severe local flooding in Severn drainage.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather cool, unsettled, breezy. Highs 14-17 C.


Forecasts for North America

Little change from yesterday, warm and dry across most of the U.S. except near the Great Lakes with a few showers in a blustery W-NW wind, and also some thunderstorms over Utah and Colorado moving into the central plains states overnight. My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and hazy with highs of about 20 C.

Check the ongoing storm thread for updates on forecast ideas and model depictions of the developing storm. I will try to update from time to time

UPDATE _ Monday 24 Sep 2012, 11 p.m.
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Conditions are generally wet but not really that stormy yet ... but the main impact of this system will probably come between 0400h and 1200h as the low deepens and moves much closer to Ireland. Thus, no change in the general outlook, still expecting heavier rain to develop late tonight with the risk of strong winds especially for Ulster and north Leinster. No sharp cutoff seems likely for rainfall across the west, in fact some parts of Connacht could see equal amounts to inland Leinster as the storm creates spiral bands of moisture. Some very interesting effects are likely in coastal Leinster when the deep low arrives offshore, so we'll reconvene at 0630h or whenever you start your day. Any significant updates before then will go into the storm thread.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 26 September, 2012
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Update ... The low began to travel much faster around midnight and is already well south of Dublin over Cardigan Bay (Wales) heading towards Monday's position over southern England. It is also rapidly losing intensity although a few more hours of gusty winds can be expected. By late tonight, the blocking pattern will break down and more normal westerly flow will resume. Further rain and wind are gradually becoming sub-alert criteria but the accumulated rainfalls could still produce ongoing flooding in a few locations especially in North Dublin and Meath.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Blustery with further showers, heavier in the southeast this morning, amounts 10-15 mms in places, NNE winds 30-50 mph. Further west, partly cloudy to overcast with drizzle or light rain at times in northerly winds 20-35 mph. Continuing cool with highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals followed by increasing cloud, chilly, lows about 4 to 7 C, temperatures rising somewhat towards morning. Moderate NW winds mostly in exposed coastal locations.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy north, partly cloudy south, breezy to windy at times from the west. Somewhat milder especially for the south, highs 11-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Early morning showers or periods of rain, gusty southwest to west winds 25-45 mph, then variable cloud, a few more showers mainly in Connacht, morning lows near 9 C and afternoon highs about 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild for most, cloudy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild, southwest winds becoming blustery again later, lows near 8 C and highs 14-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for the first part of the week (1-5 Oct) then a more settled and calm weather pattern with fog at night, hazy sunshine in the daytime. Rather mild days but chilly nights.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Outbreaks of rain across Wales and southern England, drizzle at times in the north, some sunny breaks and showers for eastern England with south to southwest winds 20-40 mph (35-55 mph exposed coasts). About 20 to 30 mms further rain in some places. Highs generally 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Light rain southern England, drizzle elsewhere, fog developing. Lows about 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Showery at times although longer dry intervals in south, near normal temperatures from Thursday to Sunday. Windy by Friday in Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Outbreaks of severe storms in a few parts of the Midwest and more widespread showers, gusty southwest winds. Staying dry and warm in some parts of the east-central and southeast U.S. The long warm, dry spell over the west continues with just isolated showers, but fronts are now beginning to break down the dry conditions in central B.C.

My local weather on Monday was hazy with sunshine during the afternoon, highs of about 20 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 28 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... This morning, a second band of showers will rapidly move across the country, heavier in the north, but this rain will only amount to about 3 to 5 mms, before partial clearing ... a few more showers are likely later on, giving a few more mms in places ... gusty southwest to west winds 25-45 mph, and afternoon highs about 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, winds diminishing to west 15-30 mph, lows around 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild for most, cloudy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, and highs 14-17 C. Winds becoming SW 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain (7-15 mm), mild, southwest winds becoming blustery again later, lows near 8 C and highs about 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with showers, winds SW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for most of next week (1-5 Oct) and rather mild most days in a southwest flow. The details continue to depend on whether slow-moving Nadine ever escapes from the subtropical easterly flow and finds a way through into the westerlies. Models are still having lots of trouble with Nadine. The GFS actually shows a fairly windy day a week from today, as a direct result of Nadine's remnant low, but other models have a slower evolution that is probably more realistic.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with occasional showers, winds WSW 30-50 mph north and 20-40 mph south, highs about 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, lows near 7 C. Winds W 20-40 mph.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy south, periods of rain in Scotland, showers in northern England by afternoon. Highs about 17 C south, 13-15 C north.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy with showers Sunday-Monday, temperatures generally 15-17 C daytime and 7-10 C overnight. Next week generally near normal in temperatures and showery.


Forecasts for North America

Only slight changes from yesterday, as rain continues to move gradually further east in the inland northeast, warm and humid near the Atlantic coast and through the southeast although rain moving in from the Gulf especially in east Texas and Louisiana. Highs generally close to 30 C in the warm air mass, 20-23 C in the rain then a cooler and drier air mass holds its place over the Great Lakes and St Lawrence valley, 15-18 C by day. The central and western regions are generally in a broad south to southwest flow of very warm almost summer-like weather that is now pushing well north of the Canadian border almost to the territories, while rain moves across the higher latitudes and early snows are falling in the far northwest and interior Alaska.

My local weather continues warm and dry, still waiting for the first wet day of the autumn season. An average September here has about two-thirds the rainfall you might expect (50-75 mms) but so far I don't think we have seen a measurable rainfall at my location and only 3 mms at the Vancouver airport (that shower missed here). Quite unusual and the ground continues to be baked with unwatered grass in a dormant yellow state, trees turning colour slowly despite the warmth (high of 22 C on Thursday). No doubt we will be paying for this at some point with a deluge.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 30 September, 2012
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Astronomy note: Full moon occurred at 0420h or as the moon was setting in Ireland.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and mild (SW 30-50 mph) in advance of a blustery line of showers now running from Ulster to west Munster, that may become thundery in Leinster mid-day, skies partially clearing after it passes although with further showers possible in Connacht especially. Rainfalls yet to come about 5-10 mms but some isolated heavier amounts around Tipp and Laois, highs about 14-16 C. Rain is likely to arrive in the Dublin region about 1100-1200h lasting about 2-3 hours. The southeast will see the latest arrival about 1400h in Wexford (of the main band, there could be lighter showers ahead of that, but a fairly dry morning in many parts of Leinster).

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy and mild, showers mainly confined to north and west, lows about 10 C. Winds WSW 25-45 mph.

MONDAY & TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, some sunny intervals, winds SW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Increasing risk of hail and thunder.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds veering to WNW 20-35 mph. Lows near 6 C and highs 11-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The European model has a cool, dry spell building in behind the last of the mid-week troughs, and this holds back the Atlantic low that will contain remnants of Nadine until well beyond the weekend. Other models are showing a much briefer settled interval followed by this oncoming mild southwest flow and Nadine's wet remants reaching Ireland around Monday 8th.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Breezy to windy, showers developing, risk of thunder in parts of Wales and central England. Winds SW 20-40 mph increasing to 30-50 mph later, highs 16-18 C south, 14-16 C central and 12-14 C Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Frequent showers, windy, mild. Lows 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to the Ireland forecast as systems will be moving east rapidly therefore unsettled with near normal temperatures falling to about 12 to 14 C in the south by mid-week.


Forecasts for North America

Breezy and mild to warm across most of western Canada and adjacent northern plains, Rockies in U.S., highs into lower 20s to 27-30 C further south. Weak fronts arriving on west coast increasing cloud with some showers. Another weak front across the northern plains mostly a dry wind-shift from SSW to WNW, some showers closer to northern Ontario. The northeast U.S. is now covered by rather chilly and cloudy weather with outbreaks of light rain developing under weak centres of low pressure. This system is stronger offshore from New England with southerly winds and rain into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Meanwhile, wet across the southeast as rain moves slowly northeast from the lower Mississippi valley. Warm and humid with thunderstorms in Florida.

It looks like a perfect weather day for the final round of the Ryder Cup near Chicago, almost calm and sunny skies, highs near 22 C. Glad to see that it will be an exciting finish after Europe clawed back a couple of points in the late afternoon.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy but warm with some sun at times, highs around 21 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 2 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frequent showers, becoming heavy or torrential in places through the morning, could become locally intense in Leinster soon ... winds SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts by late afternoon and evening. Highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls of 10-30 mm possible. Hail and thunder quite possible as freezing levels are rather low.

TONIGHT ... Blustery with more showers, less intense but another 5-8 mm likely. Lows 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds SW 20-40 mph veering to WNW 20-35 mph by afternoon or evening, and highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls about 10 mm.

THURSDAY ... A few showers from several passing troughs, each gradually clearing east, in a moderate NW flow, allowing for some sunshine between showers. Rather cool with lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool. Risk of morning frosts inland, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11-14 C. A few showers possible mainly in Connacht. Northwest breezes of 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, cool. Frosts in some inland districts, lows -2 to +3 C, highs about 11-14 C. Winds much lighter.

SUNDAY ... Warmer, increasing cloud, probably dry for most but rain could move into western counties at times. Winds increasing again to SE 20-35 mph with lows near 3 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Rain or showers, mild, windy. Highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled but with a drying trend later in the week. Near normal temperatures.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, showers and a few thunderstorms possible, with hail in many places by afternoon. Windy at times, SW 25-45 mph (higher gusts in exposed areas). Highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers, cool. Moderate westerly winds. Lows 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to the Ireland forecast as systems will be moving east rapidly therefore unsettled with near normal temperatures falling to about 12 to 14 C in the south by mid-week. Some parts of southern England may have heavier rainfalls on Wednesday (London by late afternoon into evening) from a wave that will largely miss Ireland earlier on its way east. The weekend could remain dry longer although timing is in any case rather uncertain for Nadine's final stages.


Forecasts for North America

The warm, dry spell that has been prolonged in the west is now centered more on the central regions as somewhat cooler air (8-12 C) moves into most of western Canada. This colder air is not pushing to the coast and it remains rather warm from Vancouver south (near 21 C). Highs near 24 C in southern Manitoba to 30 C in the plains states. Heavy rain is moving northeast across most of the eastern U.S. with high humidity and highs of about 22-25 C, some torrential downpours near the Delmarva peninsula.

My local weather on Monday was pleasant with mostly cloudy skies but some warm sunshine at times, light showers in the vicinity.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 3 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy to windy and rather cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds SW 20-40 mph veering to WNW 20-35 mph by afternoon or evening, and highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls about 10 mm. Several waves of more active showers appear likely and in generally similar areas to yesterday, Galway around mid-day, Donegal towards late afternoon are featured on guidance maps for some possible downpours, so expect some minor flooding with water ponding on roadways.

TONIGHT ... Little change but the slow cooling trend continues and if the showers let up after midnight, a slight risk of frost enters the picture, with lows generally 3-7 C.

THURSDAY ... A few showers from several passing troughs, each gradually clearing east, in a moderate NW flow, allowing for some sunshine between showers. Showers may be heavy at times in the north. Rather cool with lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool. Risk of morning frosts inland, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11-14 C. A few showers possible mainly in Connacht. Northwest breezes of 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, cool. Frosts in some inland districts, lows -2 to +3 C, highs about 11-14 C. Winds much lighter.

SUNDAY ... Warmer, increasing cloud, probably dry for most but rain could move into western counties at times. Winds increasing again to SE 20-35 mph with lows near 3 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Rain or showers, mild, windy. Highs 14 to 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled but with a drying trend possible later in the week. Near normal temperatures. One model (GEM) features a strong wind event around the end of next week, something to keep an eye on ... this would be from energy that catches up to Nadine's remnant low but from an origin over central North America.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, some becoming rather heavy late in the day across the south. Highs about 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers, cool. Moderate westerly winds. Lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Further showers, thunder or hail, some heavy downpours possible. Highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or rain, clearing western regions later. Highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend could turn out mostly dry with rain edging into the west on Monday then turning heavy in the south on Tuesday. Saturday will be chilly then a milder southerly flow is likely to push at least as far north as central England and Wales.


Forecasts for North America

Systems are slow moving at present but evolving, the main change is that a weak frontal zone across the northern plains states is getting stronger and developing a larger thermal contrast that could change rain to snow in some higher (western) parts of the Dakotas and more definitely over the higher terrain in Colorado and Wyoming. Montana and Alberta will be cold enough for snow also but moisture may be limited as dry air seeps into the frontal zone, and further north where it begins to clear, temperatures will recover from morning frosts to near 7 or 8 C. Meanwhile the air mass over most of the U.S. south of this developing system is very warm, with almost summer-like temperatures of 27-31 C, but the rain continues on the east coast as a fresh wave of moisture moves north along a stalled but weak frontal boundary near the I-95 corridor.

As part of the cooling trend over the inland west, a strong high has formed overhead (in southern B.C.) and we had a clear day with misty skies over the nearby mountains, somewhat cooler although the sun still feels quite warm, and a high of about 17 C. It's clear and quite chilly outside here, despite the urban heat island it is only about 5 C a quarter hour before midnight.

Astronomy preview: The waning full moon is moving towards a close encounter with Jupiter (in visual terms) that is timed for Friday evening about 10 p.m. IST ... this means you'll be seeing them quite close in the east when they rise about midnight. An occultation is visible from parts of the southern hemisphere.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 5 October, 2012
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Astronomy note: Jupiter and the waning moon (gibbous phase) rise around midnight very close together after an occultation seen from parts of the southern hemisphere earlier in the night. By the time they are visible in Ireland, Jupiter would appear to be moving away from the Moon's north pole (rising a bit ahead of the Moon) and by the time I might see it here, there would be a considerable separation already, possibly half an hour to pass the same reference point.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Most areas partly cloudy to overcast with sun dimmed by higher cloud, some further showers or light rain near south coast at times. There will also be showers in the Donegal Bay region, perhaps locally persistent. These could become sleety on hills with soft hail falling. Chilly with highs 10-13 C and even lower daytime temperatures at times in showers north.

TONIGHT ... Sharp frost, in some cases for the first time this season, in many places inland, and even a few low-lying spots near coasts. Lowest temperatures -3 to +2 C.

SATURDAY ... A frosty morning for many places inland, then sunny intervals, light winds, highs 10-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, milder, but a cold feel to the winds in exposed coastal locations (ESE 20-40 mph by late in the day near south coast). Rain may spread some distance inland from southwest coast. Morning lows about 3 to 7 C but some frost in Ulster, north Leinster (lows to -1 C). Highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, milder, fog or drizzle, periods of light rain. This will be the dying circulation of Nadine. Lows 8-11 C, highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls from this event likely to be moderate, 10-25 mm.

TUESDAY ... Rain to showers, turning a bit colder late in day. Lows 8-10 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... A northerly flow seems likely to develop with some weak influence of higher pressure off to southwest, but also somewhat unsettled as weak troughs drop south. Highs generally 9-12 C. Some rather cold maps appear on some models but it looks like what weather folks call a "toppler" meaning the pattern quickly changes to milder zonal westerly flow.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Further rain across the south, very windy in the Channel this morning but those gales are heading for Belgium and Germany. Somewhat breezy at times in England too, but generally 20-35 mph at most. Could reach 50 mph in east Kent. Further north, more dry than showery and some sunshine through extensive higher cloud layers, chilly. Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Frosts developing, lows -3 to +2 C rural, 3-7 C urban and south coast. Clearing except for persistent cloud in south.

OUTLOOK ... Saturday cool with intervals of sunshine, Sunday cloudy and milder with rain arriving Sunday night west and Monday east. This will last a few days and peter out to showers or drizzle in a cool northerly flow mid-week north and Thursday-Friday south.


Forecasts for North America

The mid-continent trough will deepen and pull colder air into the central plains and central Rockies, and snow will continue across northern Ontario. A sharp cold front will develop and bring periods of rain with thunder to the lower Great Lakes, but south of that, warm sunny weather and southwest breezes will feel summery with highs near 30 C. This very warm weather links up to warmth in the desert southwest as the western cold front stalls across Utah and Nevada and dissolves under a strong ridge extending east from a centre off the Pacific coast, into Washington state and southern B.C. -- this produces near normal temperatures and sunny weather for those regions.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny (again) and the ground is still baked dry here, quite unusual for early October when we can start to get daily rain in this climate. The high was about 18 C but the nights are rather chilly.