2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

yagan · 05-01-2021 2:53pm

fliball123 wrote: »

They are just some of the differences between 08 and 2020 I know the phrase this time its different is bandied about but This time it is different.

I agree it different, it's a market disruptor so as there's no clear way to predict a long term trend.

However we're in the EU and we will not be letting in any students until the Pandemic is officially declared over, and with so many new variants popping up there's no guarantee that further rounds of vaccines won't be needed.

A lot of the models that were in place may well now be defunct if the WFH model carries on in third level, WIT moved online entirely this year for instance.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 3:05pm

yagan wrote: »

I agree it different, it's a market disruptor so as there's no clear way to predict a long term trend.

However we're in the EU and we will not be letting in any students until the Pandemic is officially declared over, and with so many new variants popping up there's no guarantee that further rounds of vaccines won't be needed.

A lot of the models that were in place may well now be defunct if the WFH model carries on in third level, WIT moved online entirely this year for instance.

Maybe but the idea that non English speaking students could learn from their own country sounds a bit silly. Everyone knows the best way to learn a language is to immerse yourself in it. But for other courses like IT where English is not a component i could see some of it working from home . Exams will e tricky as how would you know if people are cheating ?

Ozark707 · 05-01-2021 3:07pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Exams will e tricky as how would you know if people are cheating ?

They are already doing this and it seems to be going fine.

yagan · 05-01-2021 3:25pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but the idea that non English speaking students could learn from their own country sounds a bit silly. Everyone knows the best way to learn a language is to immerse yourself in it. But for other courses like IT where English is not a component i could see some of it working from home . Exams will e tricky as how would you know if people are cheating ?

I agree that immersion is the best method, but I've met no shortage of asians perficient in English without every being in any English language country. It always makes me smile when I can hear they've picked up an Irish twang from their tutor!

Plagiarism checks were already catching out on campus cheating. There are courses that will require physical attendance, sciences, engineering, medical etc.. but the humanities, businesses, languages etc can all go online.

This is the internets moment. When loads of auld ones are happy to catch Sunday mass on their smartphone you know the transition is complete.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 3:28pm

yagan wrote: »

I agree that immersion is the best method, but I've met no shortage of asians perficient in English without every being in any English language country. It always makes me smile when I can hear they've picked up an Irish twang from their tutor!

Plagiarism checks were already catching out on campus cheating. There are courses that will require physical attendance, sciences, engineering, medical etc.. but the humanities, businesses, languages etc can all go online.

This is the internets moment. When loads of auld ones are happy to catch Sunday mass on their smartphone you know the transition is complete.

Yeah maybe the old method of finding out which priest is giving mass and finding out off someone coming out what the sermon was about was how I caught mass as a kid haha but yeah I take the point everything is online these days

yagan · 05-01-2021 3:45pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah maybe the old method of finding out which priest is giving mass and finding out off someone coming out what the sermon was about was how I caught mass as a kid haha but yeah I take the point everything is online these days

The disruption is exciting and frightening too.

I've a sibling a few years near retirement and he was told he's working from home until the pandemic is officially over, and he was in an office with hundreds in Dublin.

It isn't the end of the office by any means, but it is the accepted start of blended working. Companies will have to incorporate WFH options to stop workers being lured to rivals who do offer it.

heffo500 · 05-01-2021 3:50pm

yagan wrote: »

The disruption is exciting and frightening too.

I've a sibling a few years near retirement and he was told he's working from home until the pandemic is officially over, and he was in an office with hundreds in Dublin.

It isn't the end of the office by any means, but it is the accepted start of blended working. Companies will have to incorporate WFH options to stop workers being lured to rivals who do offer it.

Correct gone are the days of having an office with a seat for every member of staff. Most places including mine were against WFH, now see the benefits and from their point of view potential huge cost savings. Talk of us having to WFH 2/3 days and booking hot desks the other days when we're in the office. No one will be allowed work 5 days in the office anymore as they don't want to pay for big offices to accommodate this.

Zenify · 05-01-2021 4:24pm

I've been following this property page for about 6 years and only have posted 2 or 3 times a month. I was always bearish about the Dublin property market and I've been wrong for 6 years! but I have learned something. I have come to realize our property market is being controlled by external forces: politics, banking, social and so so many more.

Banking is a major one. People say there is so much demand, it is the banks that control most of that demand, it is only there because they are allowing/fueling it. What will happen to property in 2021 is completely unknown. It all depends on politics (eg. stimulus), banking and all the rest.

Everyone who predicted a major drop in 2020 would have been absolutely correct if it wasn't for the external intervention (PUP and extra EU stimulus and policies to get banks lending etc.) Who honestly knows what policies will come in or go out in 2021. nobody could have imagined this level of stimulus for 2020 back in March. That's why so many got it wrong... even the normal property bulls said we would have a small fall.

If anyone here says we would have property increases in 2020 without all these external factors is a liar. imagine if they took away artificially low interest rates, got rid of Help to Buy, stopped buying social houses. taxed REITS 50% like all the Irish landlords.... They truth is we have high property prices because they are being kept high. I don't belive this is malicious, its just what the policy makers believe is best for the economy.

So please everyone stop arguing about a rise or a fall and look more into the factors that will influence the 2021 market.

SwimClub · 05-01-2021 4:37pm

Absolutely, the government are hugely invested in property in this country through NAMA and the banks. They are also lobbied and funded by the construction sector. The new central bank lending rules will prevent a repeat of what happened in '08, and prices still are nowhere near the levels in the boom up to that. Short of a new political ruling class there is not going to be a large drop in property prices, quantitative easing will be used to prop up asset prices even in a recession.

Marius34 · 05-01-2021 4:50pm

Zenify wrote: »

I've been following this property page for about 6 years and only have posted 2 or 3 times a month. I was always bearish about the Dublin property market and I've been wrong for 6 years! but I have learned something. I have come to realize our property market is being controlled by external forces: politics, banking, social and so so many more.

Banking is a major one. People say there is so much demand, it is the banks that control most of that demand, it is only there because they are allowing/fueling it. What will happen to property in 2021 is completely unknown. It all depends on politics (eg. stimulus), banking and all the rest.

Everyone who predicted a major drop in 2020 would have been absolutely correct if it wasn't for the external intervention (PUP and extra EU stimulus and policies to get banks lending etc.) Who honestly knows what policies will come in or go out in 2021. nobody could have imagined this level of stimulus for 2020 back in March. That's why so many got it wrong... even the normal property bulls said we would have a small fall.

If anyone here says we would have property increases in 2020 without all these external factors is a liar. imagine if they took away artificially low interest rates, got rid of Help to Buy, stopped buying social houses. taxed REITS 50% like all the Irish landlords.... They truth is we have high property prices because they are being kept high. I don't belive this is malicious, its just what the policy makers believe is best for the economy.

So please everyone stop arguing about a rise or a fall and look more into the factors that will influence the 2021 market.

The biggest speculators were the ones who saw large fall. Myself and many others are looking at the factors that influence the market.
Low interest rates, HTB, social housing, or REITS not being taxed 50%, was well expected factors for 2020. As is for 2021.
High Demands, increase in Mortgage approvals, high savings are known factor, not a speculation, that will influence market.

yagan · 05-01-2021 4:51pm

I just want to add on the supply side if I had been thinking about selling there's no way I'd put it on the market now because then for viewings I'd have to leave the house in the dead of cold damp winter during a pandemic and then let people who could be covid positive walk around my gaff, touch surfaces etc..

The pandemic is gumming up the market so although I have my own thoughts about certain segments I think it's really hard to call the winners and losers during the largest civic emergency since the civil war.

Idbatterim · 05-01-2021 5:06pm

What I think will happen this time is, there is wont be money to give away a few billion each budget, I see things staying static, as pay back for the tens of billions paid out on pup , wage supports, hse etc...

Will be interesting to see how it plays out, the days of giveaway budgets ended well before covid...

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 5:16pm

Zenify wrote: »

I've been following this property page for about 6 years and only have posted 2 or 3 times a month. I was always bearish about the Dublin property market and I've been wrong for 6 years! but I have learned something. I have come to realize our property market is being controlled by external forces: politics, banking, social and so so many more.

Banking is a major one. People say there is so much demand, it is the banks that control most of that demand, it is only there because they are allowing/fueling it. What will happen to property in 2021 is completely unknown. It all depends on politics (eg. stimulus), banking and all the rest.

Everyone who predicted a major drop in 2020 would have been absolutely correct if it wasn't for the external intervention (PUP and extra EU stimulus and policies to get banks lending etc.) Who honestly knows what policies will come in or go out in 2021. nobody could have imagined this level of stimulus for 2020 back in March. That's why so many got it wrong... even the normal property bulls said we would have a small fall.

If anyone here says we would have property increases in 2020 without all these external factors is a liar. imagine if they took away artificially low interest rates, got rid of Help to Buy, stopped buying social houses. taxed REITS 50% like all the Irish landlords.... They truth is we have high property prices because they are being kept high. I don't belive this is malicious, its just what the policy makers believe is best for the economy.

So please everyone stop arguing about a rise or a fall and look more into the factors that will influence the 2021 market.

Just a few factors to consider:

interest rate are low in a effort to prevent a great depression.
A side effect of low interest rate is that it encourages investors to take on more risk while chasing yield hence why you have a increase in institutional investors in the property market which pushes up property and rent prices
if the government sopped buying social houses and continued with a rental policy then this would encourage further investment from institutional investors and just switching demand from one buyer to another.
Yes you could tax REITS at 50% but the majority of the institutional investors are not REITS but pension/insurance/property funds. If you increased the taxes on this industry it would be a net loss for the Irish economy as Ireland is a leading country in the funds industry which creates a lot of employment.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 5:23pm

Zenify wrote: »

I've been following this property page for about 6 years and only have posted 2 or 3 times a month. I was always bearish about the Dublin property market and I've been wrong for 6 years! but I have learned something. I have come to realize our property market is being controlled by external forces: politics, banking, social and so so many more.

Banking is a major one. People say there is so much demand, it is the banks that control most of that demand, it is only there because they are allowing/fueling it. What will happen to property in 2021 is completely unknown. It all depends on politics (eg. stimulus), banking and all the rest.

Everyone who predicted a major drop in 2020 would have been absolutely correct if it wasn't for the external intervention (PUP and extra EU stimulus and policies to get banks lending etc.) Who honestly knows what policies will come in or go out in 2021. nobody could have imagined this level of stimulus for 2020 back in March. That's why so many got it wrong... even the normal property bulls said we would have a small fall.

If anyone here says we would have property increases in 2020 without all these external factors is a liar. imagine if they took away artificially low interest rates, got rid of Help to Buy, stopped buying social houses. taxed REITS 50% like all the Irish landlords.... They truth is we have high property prices because they are being kept high. I don't belive this is malicious, its just what the policy makers believe is best for the economy.

So please everyone stop arguing about a rise or a fall and look more into the factors that will influence the 2021 market.

What about the 2 biggest factors
Our increase in population by 500k in the last decade and all needing somewhere to live.

Lack of decent supply in decent areas.

yagan · 05-01-2021 5:34pm

fliball123 wrote: »

What about the 2 biggest factors
Our increase in population by 500k in the last decade and all needing somewhere to live.

Lack of decent supply in decent areas.

You're very sure that immigration will continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift.

Zenify · 05-01-2021 5:35pm

fliball123 wrote: »

What about the 2 biggest factors
Our increase in population by 500k in the last decade and all needing somewhere to live.

I mentioned social factors, I would include this as social. However, my point is that these 500k people do not have €350k + in the bank. They aren't really controlling the price of property. there is no demand for those people without the banks and government assistance etc. A prudent bank would not lend to most of those people in today's economic climate, but the banks are being pushed with policies from governments and the EU central bank.

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 5:42pm

Zenify wrote: »

I mentioned social factors, I would include this as social. However, my point is that these 500k people do not have €350k + in the bank. They aren't really controlling the price of property. there is no demand for those people without the banks and government assistance etc. A prudent bank would not lend to most of those people in today's economic climate, but the banks are being pushed with policies from governments and the EU central bank.

Whether these people have 350k+ in the bank or not is irrelevant as they have to live somewhere and if renting they are still using housing stock which is reducing supply.

Banks are only interested in one thing and that is making money to pretend otherwise and think that they will act prudent if left unregulated is joke.. Just look at what happened in the 08 crisis.

As for the policies being pushed on the banks by governments and the ECB could you please explain in more detail please

gandalfio · 05-01-2021 5:46pm

Has anyone any information on the proposed Shared Equity Scheme?

I had read this was supposed to be announced onm 22nd December, but still no details on it.

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 5:52pm

gandalfio wrote: »

Has anyone any information on the proposed Shared Equity Scheme?

I had read this was supposed to be announced onm 22nd December, but still no details on it.

No details have been published or shared since that I am aware of.... They did mention that they were following the example of the UK so I would imagine that 90% of the Scheme will be the same as the UK.
https://www.gov.uk/affordable-home-ownership-schemes/shared-ownership-scheme

hometruths · 05-01-2021 6:01pm

Zenify wrote: »

I mentioned social factors, I would include this as social. However, my point is that these 500k people do not have €350k + in the bank. They aren't really controlling the price of property. there is no demand for those people without the banks and government assistance etc. A prudent bank would not lend to most of those people in today's economic climate, but the banks are being pushed with policies from governments and the EU central bank.

If you say these people are not buying property somebody will post doesn’t matter, they still need somewhere to live, house prices will go up.

If you say these people represent hardest hit in terms of job losses/wage cuts, somebody will post, doesn’t matter, they weren’t buying property anyway, house prices will go up.

TLDR - nothing matters, house prices will go up.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 6:02pm

yagan wrote: »

You're very sure that immigration will continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift.

I am yeah have you anything to counter this ?? I will set my stall and say that people will start coming back to Ireland as

There are good Visa options for people wanting to learn English
We are the only English speaking country in the EU
We have a lot of opportunities in the likes of IT and Pharma that we could not fill prior to 2020 (not sure how this looks after corona)
We have a decent standard of living and education and would be looked at as a very stable country to live in. As in not a lot of gun / bomb related deaths over the past couple of decades in comparison to say the US, UK

Have you anything to counter this?

hometruths · 05-01-2021 6:08pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I am yeah have you anything to counter this ?? I will set my stall and say that people will start coming back to Ireland as

There are good Visa options for people wanting to learn English
We are the only English speaking country in the EU
We have a lot of opportunities in the likes of IT and Pharma that we could not fill prior to 2020 (not sure how this looks after corona)
We have a decent standard of living and education and would be looked at as a very stable country to live in. As in not a lot of gun / bomb related deaths over the past couple of decades in comparison to say the US, UK

Have you anything to counter this?

The Dept of Housing and the ESRI do.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 6:09pm

Zenify wrote: »

I mentioned social factors, I would include this as social. However, my point is that these 500k people do not have €350k + in the bank. They aren't really controlling the price of property. there is no demand for those people without the banks and government assistance etc. A prudent bank would not lend to most of those people in today's economic climate, but the banks are being pushed with policies from governments and the EU central bank.

And yet all 500k need to have somewhere to live regardless of if they have 350+ or not in the bank .. It means less supply as our social policy is to try and have everyone in the country housed. The banks don't come to your door and put a gun to your head and say take that mortgage or else. They are simply facilitating people who want to buy the bank does not drive this at all..If anything they stifle demand by not letting people borrow as much as they would like. In fairness all banks didnt lend to anyone on PUP during the pandemic I thought that was very prudent of them. If the central bank had not brought in the 3.5 times your wage and 10% deposit property prices would actually be higher.

hometruths · 05-01-2021 6:11pm

Timing belt wrote: »

No details have been published or shared since that I am aware of.... They did mention that they were following the example of the UK so I would imagine that 90% of the Scheme will be the same as the UK.
https://www.gov.uk/affordable-home-ownership-schemes/shared-ownership-scheme

Minister was on newstalk this morning, saying the “nuts and bolts” still had to be worked out. Judging from some of his waffly answers it needs a bit more work than nuts and bolts.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 6:15pm

schmittel wrote: »

If you say these people are not buying property somebody will post doesn’t matter, they still need somewhere to live, house prices will go up.

If you say these people represent hardest hit in terms of job losses/wage cuts, somebody will post, doesn’t matter, they weren’t buying property anyway, house prices will go up.

TLDR - nothing matters, house prices will go up.

Its because the argument made means little or nothing on the 2 major factors of price supply and demand.

If someone needs to be housed and they cant get a mortgage then they rent and if they cant afford rent the get sorted by the social. Anyway you dice that one you have this person and a property regardless of buying , renting or placed in it by the social

As for the hardest hit. It has been proven that the hardest hit where those on the lower to mid on the wage spectrum those on the mid to upper have shown an increase in 20billion in savings..Hardly hit that hard and when its shown the amount of mortgage approvals have gone through the roof at the tail end of the year. It shows that even with PUP and people losing jobs Demand has not gone away. So there are reasons why people are saying your argument does not make sense when you look at it when it comes to supply and demand

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 6:19pm

schmittel wrote: »

The Dept of Housing and the ESRI do.

The report looks at a high emigration scenario and a low emigration scenario nowhere does it say that it expects low or high emigration

" These projections are highly sensitive to international migration flows and in a high international migration scenario the total population would reach almost six million people by 2040, whereas in a low international migration scenario the population would stand at around 5.554 million people by 2040. "

hometruths · 05-01-2021 6:22pm

Timing belt wrote: »

The report looks at a high emigration scenario and a low emigration scenario nowhere does it say that it expects low or high emigration

" These projections are highly sensitive to international migration flows and in a high international migration scenario the total population would reach almost six million people by 2040, whereas in a low international migration scenario the population would stand at around 5.554 million people by 2040. "

Amazing what you learn when you read the whole thing, and not just the info you are looking for.

It is likely that travel restrictions, uncertainty about the evolution
of the pandemic and lower confidence may result in migration being lower than in the baseline scenario at least in the short term. The low international migration scenario assumes that international migration falls from +33,700 in 2019 to +5,000 by 2022 and thereafter follows the Baseline scenario.

Zenify · 05-01-2021 6:24pm

Timing belt wrote: »

As for the policies being pushed on the banks by governments and the ECB could you please explain in more detail please

negative interest rates at the ECB. it costs the bank to hold onto money so they are encouraged to lend it out...? I thought this was common knowledge?

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 6:34pm

schmittel wrote: »

Amazing what you learn when you read the whole thing, and not just the info you are looking for.

As you know from previous discussions on this report I have read the whole thing.

Anyone can select a few sentences from the report.

"The low international migration scenario assumes that international migration falls from +33,700 in 2019 to +5,000 by 2022 and thereafter follows the Baseline scenario. This low international migration scenario is consistent with both/either a deterioration in relative economic conditions and/or migration being lower because of other external factors, such as the global health pandemic. The longer the pandemic and measures to contain it persist, the more likely estimates of structural housing demand will be closer to those in the low international migration scenario.

Furthermore, the sharp decline in economic activity, particularly in Q2 of this year will negatively affect the demand side of the housing market with lower incomes and higher unemployment affecting housing demand through the affordability channel (see Allen-Coghlan and McQuinn, 2020). The recovery in the residential market will depend on the recovery in the macro-economy and therefore it is likely that the housing demand estimates will be more consistent with the lower scenario in the short run"

As everyone has agreed on previous posts the housing market didn't suffer so it could be argued that the there is no recovery

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 6:36pm

Zenify wrote: »

negative interest rates at the ECB. it costs the bank to hold onto money so they are encouraged to lend it out...? I thought this was common knowledge?

Yes this is common knowledge but it is also common knowledge that banks have been lending less by way of mortgages since 2015!!!!

The data on CBI website will back up what I am saying

Villa05 · 05-01-2021 6:38pm

TheW1zard wrote:

My neighbours house is up for rent.. Our mortgage =1150 Neighbours rent =2940

Crazy

Imagine that amount of money leaving the country every month tax free to a foreign entity for every rented home (averaged out of course)

This is Government policy

This is beyond stupid

What percentage of private rents are then paid by the state

Could you come up with a more effective way of destroying the wealth of a nation

Dwarf.Shortage · 05-01-2021 6:42pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Imagine that amount of money leaving the country every month tax free to a foreign entity for every rented home (averaged out of course)

This is Government policy

This is beyond stupid

What percentage of private rents are then paid by the state

Could you come up with a more effective way of destroying the wealth of a nation

If you think Irish firms don't hold overseas investments (including property) that they repatriate the profits from then you are wrong.

Capital is international now and will only get more so.

hometruths · 05-01-2021 6:45pm

Timing belt wrote: »

As you know from previous discussions on this report I have read the whole thing.

Anyone can select a few sentences from the report.

"The low international migration scenario assumes that international migration falls from +33,700 in 2019 to +5,000 by 2022 and thereafter follows the Baseline scenario. This low international migration scenario is consistent with both/either a deterioration in relative economic conditions and/or migration being lower because of other external factors, such as the global health pandemic. The longer the pandemic and measures to contain it persist, the more likely estimates of structural housing demand will be closer to those in the low international migration scenario.

Furthermore, the sharp decline in economic activity, particularly in Q2 of this year will negatively affect the demand side of the housing market with lower incomes and higher unemployment affecting housing demand through the affordability channel (see Allen-Coghlan and McQuinn, 2020). The recovery in the residential market will depend on the recovery in the macro-economy and therefore it is likely that the housing demand estimates will be more consistent with the lower scenario in the short run"

As everyone has agreed on previous posts the housing market didn't suffer so it could be argued that the there is no recovery

As this thread shows, anything can be argued, whether it is sensible or not is another matter. Agreeing that price falls did not materialize is a very different thing than saying the housing market did not suffer.

However my post in response to yours was entirely about immigration projections and your claim that nowhere does the report say whether it expects high or low immigration scenario.

It clearly says that they expect immigration to be lower or are you arguing otherwise?

yagan · 05-01-2021 6:56pm

On thing is for sure there won't be Chinese coming to Ireland for English language lessons until Covid is years in the rearview mirror. China is mostly back to normal and enjoying economy growth which will erase their lockdown losses by March.

Will Chinese students wait for the laggards in the west to get their shíte together? Flip not and that will reorientate that whole English market firmly towards New Zealand!

China is already post covid and it's more likely that we'll be teaching pinyin in school in the next decade. The one growth area I see for students is more USA for who Irish international fees can be cheaper than domestic fees at home.

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 6:57pm

schmittel wrote: »

As this thread shows, anything can be argued, whether it is sensible or not is another matter. Agreeing that price falls did not materialize is a very different thing than saying the housing market did not suffer.

However my post in response to yours was entirely about immigration projections and your claim that nowhere does the report say whether it expects high or low immigration scenario.

It clearly says that they expect immigration to be lower or are you arguing otherwise?

Yes it clearly says in section 5.6 IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON PROJECTIONS that the impact on immigration may be lower due to covid but it also specifically says that that the report does not incorporate the effects of Covid on estimates of housing demand so I stand over my claim that it does not state that immigration will be high or low.

"This report focusses on generating estimates of structural housing demand at a regional level over the long term; it does not explicitly incorporate the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population projections and estimates of housing demand. This section outlines the potential impacts of COVID-19 and discusses how, as a result of the pandemic, the estimates of housing demand may be closer to those in the low international migration scenario at least in the near term."

hometruths · 05-01-2021 7:12pm

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes it clearly says in section 5.6 IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON PROJECTIONS that the impact on immigration may be lower due to covid but it also specifically says that that the report does not incorporate the effects of Covid on estimates of housing demand so I stand over my claim that it does not state that immigration will be high or low.

Pfft.

Timing belt wrote: »

The report looks at a high emigration scenario and a low emigration scenario nowhere does it say that it expects low or high emigration

It is likely that travel restrictions, uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic and lower confidence may result in migration being lower than in the baseline scenario at least in the short term. The low international migration scenario assumes that international migration falls from +33,700 in 2019 to +5,000 by 2022 and thereafter follows the Baseline scenario.

So they say it is likely, i.e that's what they expect! Oh, but only because of COVID?

Timing belt wrote: »

it also specifically says that that the report does not incorporate the effects of Covid on estimates of housing demand so I stand over my claim that it does not state that immigration will be high or low

You are clearly an intelligent poster. You have no need to clutch at straws. This is the kind of nonsense that people vilified PropQueries for.

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 7:29pm

schmittel wrote: »

Pfft.

So they say it is likely, i.e that's what they expect! Oh, but only because of COVID?

You are clearly an intelligent poster. You have no need to clutch at straws. This is the kind of nonsense that people vilified PropQueries for.

There is no clutching at straws I am just highlighting that you have interpreted the report the way you want to.

You have accused me of not reading the report to try and discredit me.

The report is there for anyone that wants to read it and come to their own conclusion.

My take on the report is that it clearly states that it is uncertain of future outcomes due to immigration and for that reason has presented the data with both scenarios (High immigration and low Immigration) along with what they believe will be the baseline case that is 318k lower than the high immigration Scenario and 112k higher than the low immigration Scenario.

hometruths · 05-01-2021 7:38pm

Timing belt wrote: »

There is no clutching at straws I am just highlighting that you have interpreted the report the way you want to.

You have accused me of not reading the report to try and discredit me.

The report is there for anyone that wants to read it and come to their own conclusion.

My take on the report is that it clearly states that it is uncertain of future outcomes due to immigration and for that reason has presented the data with both scenarios (High immigration and low Immigration) along with what they believe will be the baseline case that is 318k lower than the high immigration Scenario and 112k higher than the low immigration Scenario.

I tried to discredit you? You've managed that all by yourself.

No point in further discussion on it between you and I. I am sure there are plenty of other posters who are happy to discuss fundamentals that dont take the effects of COVID into account if it suits their narrative.

yagan · 05-01-2021 7:42pm

Folks all that's in the future, we simply don't know the dynamics of the post covid world, we now in potentially the worst spike of it. It would certainly explain why few would want to open up their home for viewings!

March will be very interesting if sellers feel its safe to venture out again.

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 8:22pm

schmittel wrote: »

I tried to discredit you? You've managed that all by yourself.

No point in further discussion on it between you and I. I am sure there are plenty of other posters who are happy to discuss fundamentals that dont take the effects of COVID into account if it suits their narrative.

Its a report on housing needs for the next 20 years not just the next year or 2 so discounting Covid is rational unless you think it will still be around in 20 years.

It just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 8:24pm

yagan wrote: »

Folks all that's in the future, we simply don't know the dynamics of the post covid world, we now in potentially the worst spike of it. It would certainly explain why few would want to open up their home for viewings!

March will be very interesting if sellers feel its safe to venture out again.

Exactly the same argument can be made for buyers they may feel it safe to venture out again in March as well

Demand could be more pent up than we thought

HotDudeLife · 05-01-2021 8:44pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Not only have you done the usual bear thing of putting your predictions out almost a year (so no one can say you were wrong at the end of the year) you added a little racism to it as well

Nice.

And if there is a ‘flight’ from those areas what happens to prices where these people land?

Just to clarify, did you actually infer racism from me simply making an observation that white people may leave areas where they are being attacked for being white (something that is quite common in the US/UK and is now ramping up in parts of Dublin).

See the irony in that?

Plenty of people are leaving these areas and given that a lot of them are closer to the Meath border, it wouldn't surprise me if many leave for commuter towns.

HotDudeLife · 05-01-2021 8:50pm

The assumption that because savings is a at a record high this will result in thousands of cash rich property buyers ready to unload on the market is really weak imo.

Many people with increased savings will likely already be property owners and also even if not, not everyone is planning on buying property. Realistically, if a couple was not in a position to buy this time last year, even if saving every penny their position to make an impact on the property market would be minimal right now, unless of course they were on > 200k combined, which is in the minority of workers and if that was the case they would likely already be property owners.

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 8:54pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The assumption that because savings is a at a record high this will result in thousands of cash rich property buyers ready to unload on the market is really weak imo.

Many people with increased savings will likely already be property owners and also even if not, not everyone is planning on buying property. Realistically, if a couple was not in a position to buy this time last year, even if saving every penny their position to make an impact on the property market would be minimal right now, unless of course they were on > 200k combined, which is in the minority of workers and if that was the case they would likely already be property owners.

Well the record number of mortgage approvals towards the end of the year would beg to differ with your opinion

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808

combat14 · 05-01-2021 9:00pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Well the record number of mortgage approvals towards the end of the year would beg to differ with your opinion

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808

record compared to what .. one month or quarter compared to last year or the whole year in its entirety!!!

fliball123 · 05-01-2021 9:01pm

combat14 wrote: »

record compared to what .. one month or quarter compared to last year or the whole year in its entirety!!!

Record months in October and November so October was the record month and then that was beaten by November so since the BPFI started recording mortgage drawdown its all detailed in the link I put up

hometruths · 05-01-2021 9:06pm

Timing belt wrote: »

Its a report on housing needs for the next 20 years not just the next year or 2 so discounting Covid is rational unless you think it will still be around in 20 years.

Not just the next year or two, i.e when the travel bans are lifted and we try and get back to to normal?

Just to remind you of the sequence of posts.

yagan wrote: »

You're very sure that immigration will continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift.

fliball123 wrote: »

I am yeah have you anything to counter this ?? I will set my stall and say that people will start coming back to Ireland as

schmittel wrote: »

The Dept of Housing and the ESRI do.

You responded:

Timing belt wrote: »

The report looks at a high emigration scenario and a low emigration scenario nowhere does it say that it expects low or high emigration

Nowhere is pretty definitive. I post a direct quote:

schmittel wrote: »

It is likely that travel restrictions, uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic and lower confidence may result in migration being lower than in the baseline scenario at least in the short term. The low international migration scenario assumes that international migration falls from +33,700 in 2019 to +5,000 by 2022 and thereafter follows the Baseline scenario.

Quite clearly in that report they are explicity saying in the short term, i.e when travel bans are lifted as yagan posted, they expect international inflows to collapse, and thereafter follows the baseline scenario.

i.e the ESRI report confirms exactly what yagan posted - immigration will not continue at the same rate when travel bans are lifted. There is no other way to interpret what they are saying they think will happen when we travel bans are eventually lifted.

Timing belt wrote: »

It just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion.

Really?! And this:

Timing belt wrote: »

As everyone has agreed on previous posts the housing market didn't suffer so it could be argued that the there is no recovery

I guess this is an example of your incisive wisdom and superior understanding of ESRI reports rather than some sort of clumsy spin to avoid simply saying, yep, my bad, I missed that bit?

Timing belt · 05-01-2021 9:33pm

schmittel wrote: »

Not just the next year or two, i.e when the travel bans are lifted and we try and get back to to normal?

Just to remind you of the sequence of posts.

You responded:

Nowhere is pretty definitive. I post a direct quote:

Quite clearly in that report they are explicity saying in the short term, i.e when travel bans are lifted as yagan posted, they expect international inflows to collapse, and thereafter follows the baseline scenario.

i.e the ESRI report confirms exactly what yagan posted - immigration will not continue at the same rate when travel bans are lifted. There is no other way to interpret what they are saying they think will happen when we travel bans are eventually lifted.

Really?! And this:

I guess this is an example of your incisive wisdom and superior understanding of ESRI reports rather than some sort of clumsy spin to avoid simply saying, yep, my bad, I missed that bit?

If I interpreted your post as the report was calling out that we would experience lower immigration for the future and not just for 2021/22 then yes "my bad" I got the wrong end of the stick but there is no clumsy Spin. The report is very clear that it is difficult to predict immigration and because of this it provides a range of scenarios.

Conclusions
This report provides estimates of structural housing demand at a local authority level out to 2040. These estimates are based on a new regional demographic model that explicitly incorporates the economic mechanisms that determine internal migration, and projections for headship rates. Given the dominant role that international migration plays in shaping the overall size, age structure and regional distribution of the population in Ireland, we examine a range of alternative scenarios for international migration. The assumptions underlying these scenarios draw heavily from recent trends and patterns in the data as well as findings on how certain key determinants of population change behave and react to the economic environment. Therefore, they implicitly assume that the types of relationships that were evident in the past will be maintained into the future. We also consider a scenario based on the 50:50 City Scenario from Morgenroth (2018) where population growth is more evenly distributed and less centred around Dublin and its surrounding area, and examine how relative regional economic conditions have to change to achieve these targets.

Marius34 · 05-01-2021 9:41pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The assumption that because savings is a at a record high this will result in thousands of cash rich property buyers ready to unload on the market is really weak imo.

Many people with increased savings will likely already be property owners and also even if not, not everyone is planning on buying property. Realistically, if a couple was not in a position to buy this time last year, even if saving every penny their position to make an impact on the property market would be minimal right now, unless of course they were on > 200k combined, which is in the minority of workers and if that was the case they would likely already be property owners.

It's 10Billion of additional savings in short time of period. Whether it's additional 10K Euro for 1 million people, or 100K Euro for 100.000 people, it's a large increase what ever way you look.
You can expect that not all planning to buy property, but even if it's 10% of those people, that makes a significant difference.

hometruths · 05-01-2021 9:42pm

Timing belt wrote: »

If I interpreted your post as the report was calling out that we would experience lower immigration for the future and not just for 2021/22 then yes "my bad" I got the wrong end of the stick but there is no clumsy Spin. The report is very clear that it is difficult to predict immigration and because of this it provides a range of scenarios.

Conclusions
This report provides estimates of structural housing demand at a local authority level out to 2040. These estimates are based on a new regional demographic model that explicitly incorporates the economic mechanisms that determine internal migration, and projections for headship rates. Given the dominant role that international migration plays in shaping the overall size, age structure and regional distribution of the population in Ireland, we examine a range of alternative scenarios for international migration. The assumptions underlying these scenarios draw heavily from recent trends and patterns in the data as well as findings on how certain key determinants of population change behave and react to the economic environment. Therefore, they implicitly assume that the types of relationships that were evident in the past will be maintained into the future. We also consider a scenario based on the 50:50 City Scenario from Morgenroth (2018) where population growth is more evenly distributed and less centred around Dublin and its surrounding area, and examine how relative regional economic conditions have to change to achieve these targets.

Yadda yadda yadda. Not exactly news to anybody and irrelevant to the posts I made. The report clearly says they think it is likely immigration will collapse and not continue at the same rate when travel bans eventually lift, as yagan posted and fleaball disputed, asking for anything to counter it, hence why I posted the link in the first place.

If you managed to get the wrong end of the stick from that exchange, it "just shows how you are interpreting information to justify your opinion"

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1