fliball123 wrote: » And if more people/Reits/companies see Irish rentals as a good investment with a solid ROI more properties may be bought for rent. People still have to live some where and before 2020 (which we can all agree is an anomaly due to corona) we had a fairly hefty net inward immigration into Ireland and our births have been out pacing deaths for the last 100 years. People still need to live somewhere.
schmittel wrote: » Of course if institutional investors think Irish property is a risk free asset they will carry on hoovering it up. I'd be very surprised if they share your view of risk though! To have an impact, they don't actually need to start selling - if they stop buying, it will have a significant impact.
yagan wrote: » I remember a builder in 2006 telling me that we needed to build more houses for the people coming to build houses. The investor model is prone to bubbles too.
The report said that prospective home-buyers have largely been insulated from job losses, while Government supports have protected incomes and removed the risk of forced selling. It also noted that mortgage lending hit a new cycle high of €1.1 billion in October, adding that housing supply issues have become more acute with too much cash chasing too few homes. Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy, said that house price increases were now likely in 2021.
As we head into 2021, homebuyers have saved additional funds to purchase homes, with sentiment helped by the likely recovery in the economy as vaccines are disbursed. Given that homebuilding will remain impaired, with banks seeking lending opportunities, too much cash is chasing too few homes - which can only push prices higher," the economist added.
fliball123 wrote: » Well the fact that you can give your property to the state for anywhere between 10 and 25 years and you get a guaranteed 85% of the current rent benchmarked against private rentals of the same style and location then add in any interest on the mortgage can 100% be written off in tax. The state also has an obligation to give the property back to you the way you gave it to them. This is the definition of a high yield and very low risk bet. The only thing that would stop this is Ireland Inc going bust and I cannot see that happening while we are in the EU. This is not bursting anytime soon.
yagan wrote: » Are you sure? Projects hitting the market now were commissioned five years ago and the volume of new projects ballooned over the same period. I'm hearing a few big sites that were at foundation level when Covid hit have been mottballed since. Not exactly a sign of confidence in the short to medium term. Then there's the massive amount of apartment units that have sought retrospective planning permission to switch from student accommodation to long term letting.
bubblypop wrote: » That's a little OTT. Crime happens everywhere
combat14 wrote: look what is trotted out just when the country is about to go into 2 months hibernation and car dealers are stating that car sales are at recession levels despite bumper savings this year..
ongarite wrote: Report on 2020 from Davy/MyHome.
ongarite wrote: Too much cash chasing too few homes with house prices up nationally. As mentioned previously on the thread, those looking to buy had jobs which were not affected by COVID.
fliball123 wrote: » No as I say I cant see the rental side of the market going off a cliff anytime soon the state are actively now competing with buyers to buy property and as I said they have a scheme in place for people with rentals at 85% of the going market rate. Why would you sell with such a state backed guaranteed ROI .. Would the fact that sites being mothballed not mean even less supply and therefor worsening the problem with suitable accommodation for the countries current population? As for building the government are doing everything it can to get developers building. Do you not think developers will have dollar signs in their eyes when the government announced the 30% of the mortgage from the government scheme..
Villa05 wrote: » I suppose this is confirmation that Government policy is the biggest contributing factor to the affordability crisis. We are marching head first into national bankruptcy entirely self inflicted by our politicians from a position of extreme strength to solve so many different issues Depressing start to the year on so many levels Well done FF/FG/Greens
yagan wrote: » I was going to add that mott balling could be brought back into play later, but in reality developers aren't set up like speculators in this investor driven market. They need to offload and they don't have Irish banks rolling over their debt like from 06 onwards. Anyway yields are heading south this year and building has continued on more supply to the market.
fliball123 wrote: » Of course they headed south this year we had absolutely no tourism no influx of foreigners like the the preceding 5 years and no students. If your basing your outcome for rentals on 2020 when Corona more or less stopped international travel as well as proptecting tenants in their rented accomadation (meaning very few people were on the move) then your way off base. What your trying to convey is that if and when corona is no longer an issue ( which will be this year with the vaccine) is that tourists and students as well as our immigration inwards into Ireland will not continue. Is this what you think will happen?
yagan wrote: » No. But now that you mention it remember the roadmap for reopening the economy last summer? Truth is no one knows how Covid will affect the market, but I am positive that before covid that conveyor belt of supply was starting to meet demand. I was working in the commissioning phase of development and this year was already slated to be peak crane in the skyline. The front end of the business is gone because there's enough in the pipeline already. It feels very similar to 06. Sure there's more cash sloshing around to drive up asking prices, but overall sales for the year are down according to the PPR, same as happened in 06/07.
Marius34 wrote: » It may feel to you, but it's not a case. Have you seen new mortgage approvals, its recovering at very speedy pace, nothing like 2008. Sales for 2020 may have been down, but 2021 sales likely to be up, if there are sufficient supplies, for people to buy properties.
yagan wrote: » I suppose in making any comparison to 06/07 I set myself as saying there'll be an exact repeat. There won't, but there are similar obvious dynamics. The multinational worker was, aside from the bailout tax, unaffected by the Bertie bubble bursting and that's the same now in a lot of industries that's have trucked through this pandemic. I read somewhere else that the vast majority of the PUP recipients were in sectors like hospitality that are in the lowest taxable bracket, so the middle earners appear for the most part to continue on. Other factors to consider is Covid's impact on the international student accommodation model, and we still don't know when and by what degree tourism will return. Many americans for instance might face travel insurance bills that make staying at home the wiser option.
fliball123 wrote: » First off where are you getting we are going bankrupt we borrowed 8/9 times as much 10/12 years ago and we didnt go bankrupt. Also where are you getting the idea that property is not affordable. If you take the average wage in Ireland is about 39k and the average house price in Ireland is 267k. Now do the math of a couple on the average wage buying a house at the average price. . The average house price in the country is 267k is affordable 3.5 times 78k (couple) is 273k and then add in 10% for your deposit. Also other countries like America, France, the UK and a lot of other EU countries allow 5 times your salary. I dont know where your getting that it is unaffordable. I know people will say but not everyone can afford 267k but in the example above both the property and wage are at the average and while we have people on less than the average wage we also have housing for less than the average house price.
fliball123 wrote: » They are just some of the differences between 08 and 2020 I know the phrase this time its different is bandied about but This time it is different.
yagan wrote: » I agree it different, it's a market disruptor so as there's no clear way to predict a long term trend. However we're in the EU and we will not be letting in any students until the Pandemic is officially declared over, and with so many new variants popping up there's no guarantee that further rounds of vaccines won't be needed. A lot of the models that were in place may well now be defunct if the WFH model carries on in third level, WIT moved online entirely this year for instance.
fliball123 wrote: » Exams will e tricky as how would you know if people are cheating ?
fliball123 wrote: » Maybe but the idea that non English speaking students could learn from their own country sounds a bit silly. Everyone knows the best way to learn a language is to immerse yourself in it. But for other courses like IT where English is not a component i could see some of it working from home . Exams will e tricky as how would you know if people are cheating ?
yagan wrote: » I agree that immersion is the best method, but I've met no shortage of asians perficient in English without every being in any English language country. It always makes me smile when I can hear they've picked up an Irish twang from their tutor! Plagiarism checks were already catching out on campus cheating. There are courses that will require physical attendance, sciences, engineering, medical etc.. but the humanities, businesses, languages etc can all go online. This is the internets moment. When loads of auld ones are happy to catch Sunday mass on their smartphone you know the transition is complete.
fliball123 wrote: » Yeah maybe the old method of finding out which priest is giving mass and finding out off someone coming out what the sermon was about was how I caught mass as a kid haha but yeah I take the point everything is online these days
yagan wrote: » The disruption is exciting and frightening too. I've a sibling a few years near retirement and he was told he's working from home until the pandemic is officially over, and he was in an office with hundreds in Dublin. It isn't the end of the office by any means, but it is the accepted start of blended working. Companies will have to incorporate WFH options to stop workers being lured to rivals who do offer it.
Zenify wrote: » I've been following this property page for about 6 years and only have posted 2 or 3 times a month. I was always bearish about the Dublin property market and I've been wrong for 6 years! but I have learned something. I have come to realize our property market is being controlled by external forces: politics, banking, social and so so many more. Banking is a major one. People say there is so much demand, it is the banks that control most of that demand, it is only there because they are allowing/fueling it. What will happen to property in 2021 is completely unknown. It all depends on politics (eg. stimulus), banking and all the rest. Everyone who predicted a major drop in 2020 would have been absolutely correct if it wasn't for the external intervention (PUP and extra EU stimulus and policies to get banks lending etc.) Who honestly knows what policies will come in or go out in 2021. nobody could have imagined this level of stimulus for 2020 back in March. That's why so many got it wrong... even the normal property bulls said we would have a small fall. If anyone here says we would have property increases in 2020 without all these external factors is a liar. imagine if they took away artificially low interest rates, got rid of Help to Buy, stopped buying social houses. taxed REITS 50% like all the Irish landlords.... They truth is we have high property prices because they are being kept high. I don't belive this is malicious, its just what the policy makers believe is best for the economy.So please everyone stop arguing about a rise or a fall and look more into the factors that will influence the 2021 market.
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