2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

mel123

Who predicted correctly in the last few threads to where we are now? Thats a genuine question. Me personally i would have been totally wrong, i thought house prices were going to drop and drop significantly. The hammer fell for me (literally, bought at bidex) about 2 weeks before all this covid stuff and I got really really lucky. My prediction at the minute for the current market is its still not going to drop, covid is here for 2021 too, albeit not as bad as 2020 hopefully.

Timing belt

mel123 wrote: »

Who predicted correctly in the last few threads to where we are now? Thats a genuine question. Me personally i would have been totally wrong, i thought house prices were going to drop and drop significantly. The hammer fell for me (literally, bought at bidex) about 2 weeks before all this covid stuff and I got really really lucky. My prediction at the minute for the current market is its still not going to drop, covid is here for 2021 too, albeit not as bad as 2020 hopefully.

I think the majority of people expected property prices to fall by 5% - 10% in 2020. (including the banks that had build this into their models for providing for bad debt)

I don't think anyone predicted that house prices would be stable or even grow in 2020

fliball123

If you look at 2020 and 2021 from a interim view point

2020
We had covid and a lot of uncertainty
We had Brexit looming large
We have had a stop on people coming into the country both immigration/study and tourists
People have lost jobs and businesses have gone to the wall
We have had building stymied by covid
We have had banking lending Stymied by covid

2021
We now have multiple vaccines being rolled out for Covid
Brexit has now passed
Once covid is gone Ireland will start receiving people again from foreign countries
The irish government as much as I dislike a lot of the horse-crap they go on with have a brilliant track record for encouraging and creating an environment for job creation. So jobs lost will hopefully open a space for someone to step in and create jobs.
Building and Lending will be back to normal this year too.

I think the budget the gov put in last year will keep property prices going up or at least steady.

My prediction is 3-5% increase in prices this year my prediction is based on the chronic supply side and the pent up demand that was built up during last year as well as a lot of issues such as brexit and covid that stopped people in their tracks for years buying finally buying. Add in the the amount of money people have saved extra in 2020 means people have more cash to play with and working from home may also mean that people now have more Take home pay to pay for a mortgage than they did before.

But I would not advise anyone to buy or sell as everyone will have their own individual set of circumstances which will trump any reason I outline above for buying or selling.

mariaalice

Those who look purely at the financial markets and the economy as evidence for house prices are forgetting one thing, the government has come up with endless ways of supporting the housing market and shows no sign of stopping the same with supporting those who are unemployed because of COVID 19.

blindside88

Watching the property market closely this year. I’m in 2 minds as to whether or not to buy a second property as an investment. I’d be borrowing about 50% of the value but would like to see a bit of a drop before jumping in. Will wait 6-8 months before doing anything anyway.

In relation to negative interest on deposits. It’s expected within the industry that this will be brought in on very large personal deposits only, possible starting at €500k, may eventually come down as far as €100k, I can’t see it impacting on property prices by and large.

fliball123

mariaalice wrote: »

Those who look purely at the financial markets and the economy as evidence for house prices are forgetting one thing, the government has come up with endless ways of supporting the housing market and shows no sign of stopping the same with supporting those who are unemployed because of COVID 19.

What ever about the property market I think it is only right that the government stepped in and supported those who where told to stop working. When you measure the money given to banks in 08 to what they are giving now it is not even 20% of what they gave to the banks. So as much as I hate the fact that I and the other tax payers will be paying for it. I simply think it was the right thing to do. Remember if everyone lost their job who are on covid payments they would still be entitled to get social welfare as well as redundancy from the state so we would not of saved too much by leaving things as they were before Covid.

amacca

mel123 wrote: »

Who predicted correctly in the last few threads to where we are now? Thats a genuine question. Me personally i would have been totally wrong, i thought house prices were going to drop and drop significantly. The hammer fell for me (literally, bought at bidex) about 2 weeks before all this covid stuff and I got really really lucky. My prediction at the minute for the current market is its still not going to drop, covid is here for 2021 too, albeit not as bad as 2020 hopefully.

I didn't predict but I'll admit I thought it woukd drop too

However I bought a property last summer even though I thought it woukd drop as it made sense to do so. I was thinking even though it would drop it wouldn't affect me.

I was also thinking there were f all properties of the type I wanted to buy coming to market anyway (not particularly interested in a shiny overpriced imo) new build in an estate.

Come to think of it there were f all whst I would call quality properties on the market anyway........but no shortage of demand

If that remains the same and the demand side has the funds or access to them I doubt property values will fall much......barring mass emigration- but then where woukd they go in the current climate?

If banks tighten money supplies and govt attempt to increase taxes to recoup losses then you could see a drop but I'd say there will be very few properties put on the market if the owners can hold on to them...you are down to the odd executor or forced sales then...The developor wont develop and the builder wont build if they can't make anything out of it.....and they wont if prices drop much...given cost of land,Labour etc......and not many receiving negative interests on cash and wary of stock market will be that anxious to offload land........+ isn't there still a heavy windfall tax on development land?

Barring demand drying up or the state building houses below cost (which isn't without its problems either imo).... we are looking at status quo for a while methinks..........

mariaalice

fliball123 wrote: »

What ever about the property market I think it is only right that the government stepped in and supported those who where told to stop working. When you measure the money given to banks in 08 to what they are giving now it is not even 20% of what they gave to the banks. So as much as I hate the fact that I and the other tax payers will be paying for it. I simply think it was the right thing to do. Remember if everyone lost their job who are on covid payments they would still be entitled to get social welfare as well as redundancy from the state so we would not of saved too much by leaving things as they were before Covid.

Of course, it is the correct thing to do.

yagan

We've been targeting a few areas around north Dublin over the year and the trend seems to be houses in the FTB bracket are rising whereas above that limit there does appear to be some good discounts if you've got the cash.

Plus Brexit isn't done, we just reached the end of the beginning and transition away from the British market may see more export industry favoring closeness to the southern ports. This may take more wind out of the Dublin bubble.

fliball123

might be an idea to get one of the polls up and let people say what they think property will do this year.

Timing belt

blindside88 wrote: »

Watching the property market closely this year. I’m in 2 minds as to whether or not to buy a second property as an investment. I’d be borrowing about 50% of the value but would like to see a bit of a drop before jumping in. Will wait 6-8 months before doing anything anyway.

In relation to negative interest on deposits. It’s expected within the industry that this will be brought in on very large personal deposits only, possible starting at €500k, may eventually come down as far as €100k, I can’t see it impacting on property prices by and large.

Once negative interest rates are brought in on retail Deposits at whatever level it will have people questioning what to do with their deposits. Yes it will be implemented on very large deposits first to test the water and then the net will widen and catch more depositors.

Remember that Banks are still getting the high yield on government Bonds from the Sovereign Crisis and that this will be rolling off the books this year/next year and replaced with Government bonds with a negative yield which will have a big impact on their bottom line so any chance to pass this cost on (without breaching any of the CRD IV reg limits) will be taken by the banks.

They are in a major cost cutting phase brought about by the reduced Income thanks to the low rates and will stop at little to improve their Cost to income ratios and ROTE. I imagine we will hear all about it when the publish their annual results in Feb

Villa05

mariaalice wrote:

Those who look purely at the financial markets and the economy as evidence for house prices are forgetting one thing, the government has come up with endless ways of supporting the housing market and shows no sign of stopping.

Should a government be using taxpayers money to keep prices high given that the state in itself is the largest customer through social and affordable housing.

Taxpayers money should be used in addressing supply issues not creating more demand.

This in itself is the greatest risk to the property market and the state finances.
Prices are at unsustainable levels especially rents. Spending taxpayers money to keep them there or rise further is economic suicide

rachaelf750

John Hutton wrote: »

2021 is the year for me (hopefully) Hope to buy (FTB) in late summer/autumn in a town where I can commute to Dublin. Have a budget of around 200k, have my deposit saved already. Looking to buy a 2/3 bedroom house or Duplex if can't get a house. No apartments.

Currently l'm thinking it will probably be Drogheda, does anyone have any recommendation for any other towns within an hours (public transport) commute of Dublin in my budget? (I've already ruled out Balbriggan).

Here is a few options that may suit.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-6-malthouse-gardens-castlebellingham-co-louth/2596401

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-12-thorne-court-drogheda-road-ardee-co-louth/2569150

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-12-cherrybrook-ardee-co-louth/2839739

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/bridgegate-ardee-co-louth/2583486

John Hutton

rachaelf750 wrote: »

Here is a few options that may suit.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-6-malthouse-gardens-castlebellingham-co-louth/2596401

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-12-thorne-court-drogheda-road-ardee-co-louth/2569150

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-12-cherrybrook-ardee-co-louth/2839739

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/bridgegate-ardee-co-louth/2583486

Thank you.



Unfortunately (as I don't drive) they are too far north. In between Dundalk and Drogheda, commute wise, is actually much worse than living in Dundalk proper, and of course Drogheda.



This is an area I've scouted well and I've settled on Drogheda as the best spot north of Dublin. I was wondering if I have overlooked anything south or west of Dublin in my price/public transport bracket.

tigger123

mel123 wrote: »

Who predicted correctly in the last few threads to where we are now? Thats a genuine question. Me personally i would have been totally wrong, i thought house prices were going to drop and drop significantly. The hammer fell for me (literally, bought at bidex) about 2 weeks before all this covid stuff and I got really really lucky. My prediction at the minute for the current market is its still not going to drop, covid is here for 2021 too, albeit not as bad as 2020 hopefully.

Congrats on getting your own purchase across the line

We bought approx 18 months ago after looking, having places fall through on us, and being outbid on properties for almost two years. As a result I kind of became obsessed with watching the market, and still am.

To answer your question (and its rare I get to say such a thing), but I never expected a dip in house prices due to Covid, and kind of predicted where we are right now.

I could see in myself, my colleagues, and my friends that those people who could wfh, and who are in the income bracket to buy in Dublin, would not be impacted by Covid the same way lower income earners were going to be.

Also, after the new Government formed it was fairly apparent that there was going to be no real change in housing policy from FFG.

So, in short, demand reamins strong, and supply is as constrained as ever.

However, what I didn't realise was how much money people would be saving during Covid. And that has helped more people get their deposit together.

Timing belt

As of 30.06.2020 the only countries that saw a fall in real house prices year on year as published by BIS

• United Arab Emirates.............-4.8947%
• China...................................-0.5741%
• Colombia..............................-5.1304%
• Hong Kong SAR.....................-4.0706%
• Hungary...............................-4.8328%
• Indonesia............................-0.6121%
• India....................................-3.5159%
• Japan...................................-0.6199%
• Morocco................................-3.3015%
• Peru.....................................-1.8072%
• South Africa..........................-1.5634%

Ireland posted the 3rd smallest increase in property prices from the countries listed with a 0.7% increase.

The Philippines saw the largest increase of 24.3% followed by Luxembourg with 12.8%

The real y/y % increase for advanced economies was 3.7% and the average for the Euro Area was 4.9%

rachaelf750

John Hutton wrote: »

Thank you.



Unfortunately (as I don't drive) they are too far north. In between Dundalk and Drogheda, commute wise, is actually much worse than living in Dundalk proper, and of course Drogheda.





This is an area I've scouted well and I've settled on Drogheda as the best spot north of Dublin. I was wondering if I have overlooked anything south or west of Dublin in my price/public transport bracket.

Ahh not driving will certainly limit your options.
Public transport from these two areas isn't too bad to Dublin, howandever best of luck with the house hunting.

Thargor

How do people generally go about researching a property besides just Googling the address? Is there a way of looking up when it was built, previous owners etc?

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Yet there appears to be no struggle selling new developments off plan and posters who are actually buying (rather than market guessing) consistently post about how competitive the market is.

Most new developments are purchased by the state for social and affordable using taxpayers money to bid against them
Or
By investment funds with significant tax advantages over local purchasers

The general public are left to fight for the scraps after they have had there fill so of course its going to be competitive when the system is set to completely disadvantage people who merely wish to provide their own housing need

I don't think this is a situation that should be celebrated or viewed as a positive, quiet the contrary in fact.

Ozark707

Villa05 wrote: »

Most new developments are purchased by the state for social and affordable using taxpayers money to bid against them
Or
By investment funds with significant tax advantages over local purchasers

The general public are left to fight for the scraps after they have had there fill so of course its going to be competitive when the system is set to completely disadvantage people who merely wish to provide their own housing need

I don't think this is a situation that should be celebrated or viewed as a positive, quiet the contrary in fact.

If there is a sizeable % of a new development that is purchased by Council and/or some fund then it puts a certain slant on the 'places flying off the market' narrative that seems to be out there.

Timing belt

Ozark707 wrote: »

If there is a sizeable % of a new development that is purchased by Council and/or some fund then it puts a certain slant on the 'places flying off the market' narrative that seems to be out there.

ongarite

Good data there.
The vast majority of sales are FTB or buyers trading up to bigger property

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Most new developments are purchased by the state for social and affordable using taxpayers money to bid against them
Or
By investment funds with significant tax advantages over local purchasers

any evidence to support this very bold claim?

fago

Thargor wrote: »

How do people generally go about researching a property besides just Googling the address? Is there a way of looking up when it was built, previous owners etc?

If it's not a one off build, the local authority's planning system can be really useful assuming applications are online. Either if the house has been extended it gives a good view of the layout, site etc., or if it hasn't been and neighbours have it's almost as useful.
Sometimes it also gives you an insight into frayed relationships based on the objections registered.

amacca

Thargor wrote: »

How do people generally go about researching a property besides just Googling the address? Is there a way of looking up when it was built, previous owners etc?

Here are some things I do if I'm genuinely interested in a property (not all and not necessarily in the below order)...tbh to make a purchase you need as much info as possible imo

Disclaimer : there may be other less onerous things you can do.

1) look carefully at the property site the property is advertised on and save a copy of all the detail.

2) look to see if the property is advertised on other sites including the aucioneer(s) own site to see if there are any discrepancies in asking price/listing date etc (occasionally this yields some interesting info)..save all this info too

3) Google the exact property address (or variants) if possible and see if it was listed before on other sites and if so for how many times and how long and what kind of price movements in the asking price there were (can be very illuminating sometimes)....also look up any ads for the property in local newspapers or national depending on the kind of property and see if other auctioneers had the property previously and didnt shift it

4) Take more than one drive by of the area and its surroundings and walk around to get a feel for the area if possbile....try to talk to locals casually about the area but take what they say with a grain of salt....you can get some fantastic info and also headbangers regardless of age so you have to try assess the person giving you the info

5) Googlemaps is actually quite useful for a plan view of site area/boundaries etc (not the legal ones obviously - just whats physically there)

6) The property price register can at times give you a good feel for what kind of property turnover is in the area in the recent past, if selling and asking prices are in line etc etc....although again Id take some selling prices with a pinch of salt, Im convinced one or two houses in an area I was looking at recently sold for more than is down on the register with money changing hands under the counter but in general it will give you a lot to go on.

7) The county development plan can give you an idea what way adjoining land has been classified, what sort of planning permissions are being given in the area and to whom (if you know how to read between the lines sometimes) ...again to a very limited extent but it can be interesting to see who applied for what and what was granted and give you an idea what might be built on soon how likely permission is to be given for certain types of development and what might remain undeveloped for the next 20years or more etc........again limited and things can change especially the way things are at the moment but when everything is chugging along at a relatively stable predictable rate it can be well worth your time to take a look.

8) you can request folios in the PRA/land registry in the fourcourts if you can pinpoint the property on a map (for a fiver now I think)....if there was something I was interested in the past I used to just walk in and point and ask for the details, maybe you can do that online now.....you can get details there of who owns it, and when it changed hands in the past legally without having to fork over hundreds to a solicitor....if im mildly interested in something and I might possibly maybe probably not buy it but definitely not interested enough to contact a solicitor this can give you the legal info of ownership etc

9) talk to auctioneer and request viewing/tour...listen carefully to everything he /she says and note it down as soon afterwards as you can so you have a reference more of a nose for anything that smells a bit fishy later on if indeed anything does

10) if you are serious your solicitor will also do searches as part of buying process but its good not to be green...dont depend on them to be as thorough as you would (their remit is only the legal stuff really but I always ask them regarding future developments just to see what they say etc (some can be quite clued in a give you that useful little nugget of info....a properly independant surveyer will also go through the house if there are structural issues etc you are worried about(and cost you more the more independant they are and then frighten the **** out of you with all the faults problems to justify their fee sometimes)...but tbh I usually run a mile if its structural, not worth the hassle in my book.

Of course all of the above can be short circuited if you live in the area and know the score or have access to trustworthy people that live in the area and will give you the info

and just to add, you are talking to an amateur here, Im sure there are better ways to do it.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

any evidence to support this very bold claim?

it's hardly breaking news.

The federation, which represents most builders, says that the State acquired at least 4,400 new homes for social housing, while investment funds bought 95 per cent of the 3,644 apartments completed here last year.

Just 8,000 houses built last year offered for sale on open market, says CIF

yagan

^^^

All goods tips.

Also if you have an area in mind start tracking by saving the listings as a PDF once a month as sometimes properties will be taken off for a while and then relisted at a lower price to try to get interest. They do this so a price drip isn't registered on the ad. I've seen it happen a good bit in an area I've been shadowing.

Timing belt

Cyrus wrote: »

any evidence to support this very bold claim?

The following provides a breakdown of new builds sold in Dublin by type of buyer



Source: CSO
Dataset: HPM02 - Residential Dwelling Property Transactions

Empty_Space

There is a lot of terrible information in this forum. 2021 is the year that brings home a lot of harsh realities.

As soon as we put the corona virus behind us and governments turn off the life support propping up not just housing markets but entire economies, things are going to get ugly very quickly.
Ireland is fairly irrelevant in the whole thing. I keep hearing all this noise about supply, like it matters....
Ireland simply follows along with bigger economies. However, we are moving away from globalization and in the changing system I suspect Ireland wont do so well.

What do you think is going to happen when massively overvalued stocks are let fall and zombie companies can finally die. Don't stress your brains too much now.

fliball123

Empty_Space wrote: »

There is a lot of terrible information in this forum. 2021 is the year that brings home a lot of harsh realities.

As soon as we put the corona virus behind us and governments turn off the life support propping up not just housing markets but entire economies, things are going to get ugly very quickly.
Ireland is fairly irrelevant in the whole thing. I keep hearing all this noise about supply, like it matters....
Ireland simply follows along with bigger economies. However, we are moving away from globalization and in the changing system I suspect Ireland wont do so well.

What do you think is going to happen when massively overvalued stocks are let fall and zombie companies can finally die. Don't stress your brains too much now.

are you the pot or kettle there..Have you one shred of info that supports your theory here. A bit bold of you and starting with your opening comment as if you have you hand on the pulse..No one knows whats going to happen this year.