Longshot Value at Cheltenham

longshotvalue · 24-02-2019 7:39pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Down to 150, reckon the English handicapper can justify adding to that?

I doubt it when he has run in uk loads. Not more than 1-2 lbs anyway. He wont be out of the 5, but on the day could be a big price. Id prefer if he didn't lead and just sat handy and picked em off up the hill.

RivetingRoger · 24-02-2019 8:37pm

aidankkk wrote: »

I doubt it when he has run in uk loads. Not more than 1-2 lbs anyway. He wont be out of the 5, but on the day could be a big price. Id prefer if he didn't lead and just sat handy and picked em off up the hill.

Currently 25/1
Gotta get some of that

longshotvalue · 27-02-2019 2:57pm

aidankkk wrote: »

I doubt it when he has run in uk loads. Not more than 1-2 lbs anyway. He wont be out of the 5, but on the day could be a big price. Id prefer if he didn't lead and just sat handy and picked em off up the hill.

I think jezki has been royally screwed at 155 . Up 10 lbs for his second last time out . Not pocket talk because I haven't backed him yet but it looks tough now.

RivetingRoger · 27-02-2019 3:04pm

aidankkk wrote: »

I think jezki has been royally screwed at 155 . Up 10 lbs for his second last time out . Not pocket talk because I haven't backed him yet but it looks tough now.

Ah balls :mad:

Gavin "shels" · 27-02-2019 3:13pm

Looks a tough ask for him alright.

Slattsy · 27-02-2019 3:17pm

Murdered (to a lesser extent) Ivanovic also!

Nulty · 27-02-2019 3:20pm

Yes, I've backed Ivanovich at 33s for the county. It's a disproportionate hike compared to Uradel. Jezki is worse though.

Both hammered

zpehtsfd · 27-02-2019 3:22pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Murdered (to a lesser extent) Ivanovic also!

Handicapper actually gave him an extra pound even though he was behind Jezki last time out. :mad:

RivetingRoger · 27-02-2019 4:37pm

Se Mo Laoch at 20/1 for the Kim Muir looks a good price to me

longshotvalue · 27-02-2019 4:38pm

Nulty wrote: »

Yes, I've backed Ivanovich at 33s for the county. It's a disproportionate hike compared to Uradel. Jezki is worse though.

Both hammered

Jezki just isn't a fair rise , as in fairness to the horse he had run well in graded races this year and wasn't hiding or playing silly buggers .

Feckit it will deserve a bigger cheer when he wins

Gringo180 · 27-02-2019 8:49pm

The filth deserve the hikes. Forever running horses half cooked.

Nulty · 28-02-2019 11:58pm

My maths are broken. Ivanovich Gorbotov got it worse than Jezki. Shocking. Same with my bet on Walk To Freedom. Absolutely spanked by the handicapper.

Nulty · 28-02-2019 11:58pm

My maths are broken. Ivanovich Gorbotov got it worse than Jezki. Shocking. Same with my bet on Walk To Freedom. Absolutely spanked by the handicapper.

Whiplash85 · 01-03-2019 12:25pm

Nulty wrote: »

My maths are broken. Ivanovich Gorbotov got it worse than Jezki. Shocking. Same with my bet on Walk To Freedom. Absolutely spanked by the handicapper.

I reckon Walk to Freedom still has a fair chance. Type of horse that will love Cheltenham and travels very strongly in races. Missed 18 months through one thing or another so has relatively low mileage for an 8 year old and could still have loads more improvement.

Charlie George · 01-03-2019 12:52pm

Katpoli in the Fred winter 50/1.

longshotvalue · 03-03-2019 5:49pm

JLT

It appears from comments that its likely Paloma Blue will go for the JLT. One thing we can be sure of if he goes he can’t go of at more than 10/1 in what will probably be a small enough field. He was probably the one to take out of last year supreme and if he can get jumping better he won’t be far away in this race.

2 Points win 16/1 NRNB Various

BoroMan32 · 03-03-2019 8:06pm

Jezki, Ivanovich Gorbatov and De Name Escapes Me all ruled out of Cheltenham by J.P.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/cheltenham-countdown/jp-mcmanus-trio-ruled-out-of-festival-because-of-handicapping-issues/369021

Gringo180 · 03-03-2019 8:27pm

BoroMan32 wrote: »

Jezki, Ivanovich Gorbatov and De Name Escapes Me all ruled out of Cheltenham by J.P.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/cheltenham-countdown/jp-mcmanus-trio-ruled-out-of-festival-because-of-handicapping-issues/369021

No sympathy for McManus. Hes consistently not allowing his horses to run on merit, you dont mind the odd time plotting a horse but these gangsters are at it 90% of the time. The utter contempt they hold for punters is sickening.

Slattsy · 03-03-2019 8:31pm

I love all the hate for McManus. People think he's the only one stopping horses, it's absolutely hilarious.

Andrew00 · 03-03-2019 8:38pm

Complete disregard for punters

Angliru · 03-03-2019 8:39pm

Roger will be heartbroken Jezki is out

longshotvalue · 03-03-2019 8:41pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Complete disregard for punters

Anyone betting antepost in handicaps and not getting nrnb only has themselves to blame .

I wouldn't blame them . Better to go to punchestown .

Punters arnt paying the bills and rightly have no say in the running of horses

NaiveMelodies · 03-03-2019 8:46pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

No sympathy for McManus. Hes consistently not allowing his horses to run on merit, you dont mind the odd time plotting a horse but these gangsters are at it 90% of the time. The utter contempt they hold for punters is sickening.

Doubt he's looking for sympathy. If they'd a chance they'd be running.

zimmermania · 03-03-2019 9:51pm

Not an outsider but i was told by someone i take notice of that FRIEND OR FOE was very well fancied for the Fred Winter4 year old handicap hurdle.I do not like ante post betting so i waited until it was nrnb and i now have a betting slip for the horse at 12/1 five places from Bar One Racing on a horse may well start favourite assuming he gets a run.

Shemale · 03-03-2019 9:55pm

Nulty wrote: »

My maths are broken. Ivanovich Gorbotov got it worse than Jezki. Shocking. Same with my bet on Walk To Freedom. Absolutely spanked by the handicapper.

I think your post button is busted too

Gringo180 · 03-03-2019 10:25pm

Slattsy wrote: »

I love all the hate for McManus. People think he's the only one stopping horses, it's absolutely hilarious.

Nobody said that, but nobody does it on the same level his operation does.

Motivator · 03-03-2019 10:41pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Nobody said that, but nobody does it on the same level his operation does.

Nobody has put more into the game than he has. He can do what he likes. What people fail to realise is that McManus keeps small yards going with perhaps the one horse that he has with them. Those yards need to land a gamble to keep going year to year. Now I know the bigger yards do it too but everyone is entitled to make a few quid. Compare what McManus is doing pulling strokes and gambles, I’d much rather see that then see what Gigginstown do. Whipping all their horses off of Mouse Morris after what he did for them. Same with Colm Murphy and Sandra Hughes. O’Leary put two of those yards out of business. He then has the cheek to come out and say they don’t gamble their horses because it’s a hobby for them. Give me a break.

sdoc13 · 03-03-2019 10:56pm

Motivator wrote:

Nobody has put more into the game than he has. He can do what he likes. What people fail to realise is that McManus keeps small yards going with perhaps the one horse that he has with them. Those yards need to land a gamble to keep going year to year. Now I know the bigger yards do it too but everyone is entitled to make a few quid. Compare what McManus is doing pulling strokes and gambles, Iâ€™d much rather see that then see what Gigginstown do. Whipping all their horses off of Mouse Morris after what he did for them. Same with Colm Murphy and Sandra Hughes. Oâ€™Leary put two of those yards out of business. He then has the cheek to come out and say they donâ€™t gamble their horses because itâ€™s a hobby for them. Give me a break.

Couldn't agree more.
Well said sir.

supremenovice · 03-03-2019 11:02pm

I second that. No matter what you do for the O'Learys, they are never happy. They pulled their horses from Willie Mullins, of all people. Not to mention sacking Davy Russell - he proved them wrong in the end!

Gringo180 · 03-03-2019 11:08pm

Motivator wrote: »

Nobody has put more into the game than he has. He can do what he likes. What people fail to realise is that McManus keeps small yards going with perhaps the one horse that he has with them. Those yards need to land a gamble to keep going year to year. Now I know the bigger yards do it too but everyone is entitled to make a few quid. Compare what McManus is doing pulling strokes and gambles, I’d much rather see that then see what Gigginstown do. Whipping all their horses off of Mouse Morris after what he did for them. Same with Colm Murphy and Sandra Hughes. O’Leary put two of those yards out of business. He then has the cheek to come out and say they don’t gamble their horses because it’s a hobby for them. Give me a break.

Thats all well and good but dont throw the toys out of the pram when some of his horses hes had the handbrake on are getting murdered by the handicapper.

RivetingRoger · 03-03-2019 11:19pm

Not surprised re Jezki
Handicapper destroyed his chances
Could see the great boy retired now

Not gutted.
Saves me 20 quid !

Motivator · 03-03-2019 11:24pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Thats all well and good but dont throw the toys out of the pram when some of his horses hes had the handbrake on are getting murdered by the handicapper.

Plenty of owners and trainers do it. If they think the mark is excessive then why run a horse that they know won’t have a chance?

ON ZEE BRIDLE · 03-03-2019 11:32pm

I would have alot more time for JP than Gtown.No loyalty at all, taking horses out of mouse's yard was just wrong but the o'Leary brothers don't give a fuk

Motivator · 03-03-2019 11:47pm

ON ZEE BRIDLE wrote: »

I would have alot more time for JP than Gtown.No loyalty at all, taking horses out of mouse's yard was just wrong but the o'Leary brothers don't give a fuk

No loyalty whatsoever from them, and for an operation that are in it for “sport and for the love of the game” they’re a ruthless pair. They put Sandra Hughes out of business and the same with Colm Murphy. Thankfully Mouse looks to be ok in terms of other owners and horses but still. In all my time involved in racing I don’t think I’ve ever heard of McManus taking a horse out of a yard. Say what you want about them pulling strokes and landing touches, McManus looks after the small guys and that’s all that I care about.

Gringo180 · 04-03-2019 12:12am

Motivator wrote: »

No loyalty whatsoever from them, and for an operation that are in it for “sport and for the love of the game” they’re a ruthless pair. They put Sandra Hughes out of business and the same with Colm Murphy. Thankfully Mouse looks to be ok in terms of other owners and horses but still. In all my time involved in racing I don’t think I’ve ever heard of McManus taking a horse out of a yard. Say what you want about them pulling strokes and landing touches, McManus looks after the small guys and that’s all that I care about.

But what about the punter he ****s over on a consistent basis like no other owner out there? You say owners like him make the sport what it is, you can say the same about the punters but you dont seem to care much for them.

As you say, McManus can do what he likes but if O Leary takes his horses elsewhere hes a bollox. Bit hypocritical if you ask me.

Personally I dont mind McManus himself, but he hasnt a leg to stand on with regards to him moaning about his horses being hit hard by the handicapper.

Motivator · 04-03-2019 1:33am

Gringo180 wrote: »

But what about the punter he ****s over on a consistent basis like no other owner out there? You say owners like him make the sport what it is, you can say the same about the punters but you dont seem to care much for them.

As you say, McManus can do what he likes but if O Leary takes his horses elsewhere hes a bollox. Bit hypocritical if you ask me.

Personally I dont mind McManus himself, but he hasnt a leg to stand on with regards to him moaning about his horses being hit hard by the handicapper.

McManus at least keeps racing competitive. How many bad horses has he with different trainers up and down the country and in the UK? He keeps yards in business where as Gigginstown closes them.

What McManus does is within the rules and is no different to what nearly every other owner and trainer does. Pulling and stopping horses is part of the sport but almost all of the poorer racing in the UK is worse. Yards have to pull off a touch every few months just to pay the bills, yes the Green and Gold do it as well but it’s not like they’re the only ones at it.

I think everyone at this stage calls O’Leary a bollocks. He’s put crazy money into Irish racing but he’s running his operation like a business and the cut throat nature of the Gigginstown operation is far from what McManus is about. I would agree they probably shouldn’t be giving out about the handicap marks but they’re his horses at the end of the day. Any other owner or trainer would love to have his horses to send to Cheltenham to land a touch - that’s why they’re in the sport in the first place.

Lastly, without the punters there’d be no racing bla bla bla. Without McManus Irish Racing would be in the toilet and that’s a fact.

famagusta · 04-03-2019 8:25am

Anybody who gives out about McManus must never have been involved in a horse. Everyone does it, not necessarily stopping them but just not giving them every chance in every race.

Mostly Harmless · 04-03-2019 9:55am

At least O'Leary pays his tax into the Irish state, but sure JP is a people's hero cos he throws a bit of business to some lad down the road

idnkph · 04-03-2019 10:38am

Any chance the thread can be kept for the purpose of was created instead of b1tching about owners. Create another thread for owner bashing if ye need.

PhuckHugh2 · 04-03-2019 10:38am

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

At least O'Leary pays his tax into the Irish state, but sure JP is a people's hero cos he throws a bit of business to some lad down the road

This! Spot on!!

04-03-2019 10:48am

idnkph wrote: »

Any chance the thread can be kept for the purpose of was created instead of b1tching about owners. Create another thread for owner bashing if ye need.

Even better any chance we can leave the posting to Aidan so those of us following the thread get updates we care about?

The forum should be able to handle letting Aidan having a thread for his picks that doesn't get jumped on by the rest of the 'tipsters' on here.

Apologies if this is back seat modding, just a suggestion.

06-03-2019 1:47pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Ryanair Chase

The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

So far so good....

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/coney-on-course-for-ryanair/159341

have some of the 50's that Hills had a few weeks back.

Brock Turnpike · 06-03-2019 3:40pm

Aidan, would the forecast of lots of rain for next week affect the picks you've posted so far?

longshotvalue · 06-03-2019 3:44pm

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Aidan, would the forecast of lots of rain for next week affect the picks you've posted so far?

Not great for Meticolous id imagine, but still were on at 20/1. But im not sure itll be very soft more than likely soft side of good-soft, which will be grand.

Softer will probably help my best bet on Hardline at 25/1.

Soft will rule out Romain de Senaim having any chance id imagine.

Coney Island will be better with the usual Cheltenham Ground, so im hoping it doesnt turn heavy for him.

Overall Heavy would be bad, but good-soft would be ideal.

realdanbreen · 06-03-2019 3:52pm

If it wasn't for McManus + the O'Learys Irish racing would be back where it was years ago- a jokeshop and still you have fellas coming on here who have hardly ever been to a race meeting knocking them, it's laughable!:D

Charlie George · 06-03-2019 6:32pm

There wasn't a whole lot wrong with Irish racing before ó leary and his muppet brother started buying and breeding horses, we are leaders in the world of breeding.

OsmosisJ · 06-03-2019 7:05pm

bluetractor wrote: »

I look at these tips and prefer not to comment as I know feck all about horses, but one thing I can tell you is the amount of money JP McManus gives to charitable causes each and every year is in the millions and almost all is not mentioned. A charity I'm involved with got a very generous donation (six figures) and it was given on the condition that it remained anonymous.

I would not bother replying to ****e like that, mcmanus has giving so much to charities , students and irish racing but will still have people whinging

Gautama · 06-03-2019 7:13pm

OsmosisJ wrote: »

I would not bother replying to ****e like that, mcmanus has giving so much to charities , students and irish racing but will still have people whinging

I stopped donating to charities when it came to light that Console had become the founder’s slush fund. Arround that time there was also the ReHab controversy and another charity in Sligo had funny stuff going on. Throw in all the trouble with Goal...

McManus picks and chooses where his money goes.
O’Leary’s goes into the general pot like the rest of us. Pensions, water, hospitals, etc. Anonymous like us all.

yaboya1 · 06-03-2019 7:23pm

bluetractor wrote: »

A charity I'm involved with got a very generous donation (six figures) and it was given on the condition that it remained anonymous.

Pity you didn't keep your side of the deal.

Motivator · 06-03-2019 7:25pm

Gautama wrote: »

I stopped donating to charities when it came to light that Console had become the founder’s slush fund. Arround that time there was also the ReHab controversy and another charity in Sligo had funny stuff going on. Throw in all the trouble with Goal...

McManus picks and chooses where his money goes.
O’Leary’s goes into the general pot like the rest of us. Pensions, water, hospitals, etc. Anonymous like us all.

McManus picks and chooses where it goes alright. He chooses to put it towards educating underprivileged teenagers and improving impoverished areas around the country.

Longshot Value at Cheltenham

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