Stallions

Specious honours being awarded as Pattern grows to record size
https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/more-to-read/specious-honours-being-awarded-as-pattern-grows-to-record-size/353311

Down near the end of his article Tony Morris writes
"My analyses of pedigrees show 144 instances of winners inbred within four generations, virtually on a par with last year.
While the name most commonly repeated is still that of Northern Dancer, his sons and grandsons are now featuring prominently, as was to be expected.
When the old breed-shaper departs into the further reaches of pedigrees, it is a fair bet that Danzig will become the most duplicated ancestor.
In 1998, when there were 244 individual Pattern winners, I found that 56 of them (23 per cent) had pedigrees showing no duplications within five generations.
Twenty years on only 14 of the 324 winners (four per cent) were bred that way.
Of course, these days everybody wants to use the same horses, and bigger books ensure that they get the opportunity. Diversity in the breed is becoming extinct.

tatoo wrote: »

Thanks indeed for that, very little success rate demonstrated by pattern winners for the SW duplication,
It will be interesting to see how inbreeding to Urban Sea might fare out.
The National Hunt stallion ranksxare choc full of Sadlers Wells , sons, grandsons and great grandsons, it's hard to escape them if you have a SW line mare.

Last year's Derby winner Masar is 3x4 inbred to Urban Sea. His dam Khawalah has a half sister and half brother both inbred 3x3 to Urban Sea one by Teofilo and one by Masar's own sire New Approach.

That family line is full of very successful inbreeding to Urban Sea and they also had several attempts to reproduce another Sea The Stars as they tend to use Cape Cross a lot. Khawalah's grand dam Melikah ( Lammtarra X Urban Sea ) died while in foal to Cape Cross's son Golden Horn.

tryfix wrote: »

As usual there were lots of blue bloods on show today at even a modest Curragh meet.

One in particular stands out as an example of the incredible speed influence that War Front is when he's crossed with the Coolmore broodband.

After the example of 3yo 6f Gp1 winner US Navy Flag ( War Front x Misty For Me ( Galileo ) and his full sister Roly Poly who both managed Group 1 wins at 2 over 6f. This evening at the Curragh Lost Treasure ( War Front x Wading ( Montjeu ) ) was a fine winner of a 5f 3yo maiden despite being out of a Montjeu dam who is herself a full sister to Irish Oaks winner Bracelet. It's one thing to overcome Galileo's staying influence but it's on another level to be able to overcome the very stout stamina influence that Montjeu is in a pedigree. It may also end up being a thing that the War Front colts will show slightly more speed than their sisters.

I don't know whether Coolmore have stumbled across this match that can speed their middle-distance bloodlines up to sprint level while they were seeking to produce milers or whether the pedigree boffs there knew this speed would come out even in their middle-distance broodmares, but to my mind this sprint speed is something to bear in mind when looking at these War Fronts that Ballydoyle is saturated with.

Also in the race before Lost Treasure's there was a Ballydoyle win for Sir Erec who is a Camelot colt out of a Galileo mare which is a cross that could become quite fashionable as Camelot benefits from more attention now that he's proven himself capable of producing Group 1 winners.

Lost Treasure's half sister the 2yo Just Wonderful ( Dansili X Wading ) kind of proves the speed point about War Front by being a 1m Gp3 winner today as a juvenile while her War Front half brother is winning 5f races as a 3yo.

tatoo wrote: »

Ha ha, problem solved !

Is there anything to be said for sending a dual purpose/national hunt Montjeu mare to a son of Galileo do you think?
I would've been inclined to avoid a SW repetition top and bottom.

Today Sir Erec proved that Camelot over Galileo ( 3x3 inbred to Sadler's Wells ) can indeed produce grade 1 winners, at least over the jumps he can. I think Magnier himself bred this fellow.

It's also a nice timely boost for the Montjeu line for anyone that's thinking of getting into the Montjeu line bargain bucket Epsom Derby winner Wings Of Eagles @ €6,500.

It's a tale of two hemispheres for the stallion career of the 10 times gp1 winner So You Think.

For a horse who retired at the same time as Frankel he has a similar 5 indivual Gp 1 winners haul and off a fraction of Frankel's fee, but all those Gr1 winners are in Australia and they're pacey types down under like Friday's 7f Gp1 winner Nakeeta Jane, a 3yo fully who's on an upward curve.

Up in the northern hemisphere So You think has a modest looking 10% wins to runs ratio with his best strike rate at 14f plus. I don't know why it has worked like that but he was always going to better utilised in Australia than here. A question of unsuitable northern hemisphere matings or just the fact that So You Think's stock are better suited to the style of racing in Australia?

tatoo wrote: »

I see the 2m6f novice hurdle was also won by a horse inbred 3x3 to Sadlers Wells, Commander of Fleet being by Fame and Glory ( Montjeu) out of the Saddler's Hall mare Coonagh Cross.
While that's a couple of notable successes for the cross , I wonder how they compare statistically when the total number of runners with that cross is taken into account.

These are from my own data, and should not be taken as complete.
I found in my data 190 horses with Sadler’s Wells twice in the first three generations.
Note that he could be 1x3, 3x1, 2x3, 3x2, 3x3.
I found none where Sadler’s Wells was in the first generation i.e. he was the sire.
There were 31 that were either non-runners (confirmed) or where I could not find a rating, and my guess is they were also non-runners.

Averages for 159 rated horses with a Sadler's Wells duplication 3x3 or closer.
colts geldings fillies
average rating 87.0 74.7 71.8
median rating 93.5 71.0 71.5


The average ratings for over 150,000 horses in my data was 93.8 for colts and 74.5 for both geldings and fillies.
You can see that inbreeding to Sadler’s Wells in the first three generations does not make much difference.

31 horses were rated 100+, 23 colts/geldings, 8 fillies.
36 horses were rated below 60, 16 colts/geldings, 20 fillies.
92 horses were rated 60 to 99, the middle ground.

In close inbreeding, 3x3 or nearer, there are only seven positions for the duplicated stallion to appear, four on the sire side, three on the dam side.
Sire (s), sire’s sire (ss), Sire’s sire’s sire (sss), sire’s dam’s sire (sds).
Dam’s sire (ds), dam’s sire’s sire (dss), dam’s dam’s sire (dds).

In the 100+ rated horses (31) Sadler’s Wells appeared
9 times as the sire of two sons (29% of the 31 horses)
21 times as the sire of a son and daughter (68% of the 31 horses)
1 time as the sire of two daughters (3% of the 31 horses).

In the 60- rated horses (36) Sadler’s Wells appeared
14 times as the sire of two sons (39%)
19 times as the sire of a son and daughter (53%)
3 times as the sire of two daughters (8%).

You can see that the horses rated under 60 have more (imo) bad inbreeding.
I believe inbreeding to a sire who produces two sons in the pedigree is a negative, unless it is balanced by another factor.

Sadler’s Wells sire Northern Dancer, has two well known sires in his near ancestors, Nearco producing a son, and Native Dancer producing a DAUGHTER. Where there is inbreeding to Sadler’s Wells (i.e. he is there twice) then there is also a daughter of Native Dancer twice.

A further examination of the pedigrees of the 100+ rated horses with two sons of the duplicated Sadler’s Wells (9 of 31 horses) and the 60- rated horses (14 of 36 horses) showed
the 100+ rated group had SONS of Native Dancer an average 2.33 times
the 60- rated group had SONS of Native Dancer an average 1.29 times.

I think this balancing influence helped to produce the better ratings for the horses with negative inbreeding (two sons of a sire).
The 100+ group had 68% with the more desirable son and daughter of a sire, against 53% for the 60- rated group.
The 100+ group had only 29% two sons of Sadler's Wells (against 39% for the 60- group).
And the 29% two sons group had more Native dancer sons in their pedigrees.

Other inbreedings in the 159 rated horses are ignored in the above work.
It would be a mistake to judge a horse on his sire only, or his dam only, or one one inbreeding group.

TheTorment wrote: »

I see Idaho is standing at The Beeches Stud Coolmore NH

https://coolmore.com/farms/nationalhunt/stallions/idaho

No details of fee as yet

He's an interesting physical type with a commercial pedigree. As far as I can remember he's a bit heavier than his brother Highland Reel who is a very tall horse himself. He makes a better NH stallion prospect than his brother ( assuming that Highland Reel's Flat Stallion career won't last too many years ) would. Idaho is built for ploughing through winter ground while Highland Reel's soft ground form was a shadow of his firm ground form.

tatoo wrote: »

I think Coolmores own site have Highland Reel down as being 16.01/4 hh..is that a bit of an underestimation?

Is Idaho a similar height?

I must have got it very wrong about his height , probably because Highland Reel's rather lean build made him look taller than he is and IIRC he always looked like a tall horse when walking around with the other horses ( it's hard to believe that a horse like Saxon Warrior is taller than him ). They don't say what height Idaho is ( and don't appear to mention the height of their NH stallions on the site ). I remember Aidan O'Brien saying at the start of the 2017 season that they were excited about Idaho and Highland Reel competing in the top races describing them both as big horses and saying how Idaho as a 4yo was now a heavier horse than his big brother Highland Reel.

Although it might make sense to play down Highland Reel's height to make him seem more suitable for a career as a flat stallion, I don't think they have as they already have plenty of taller flat stallions than him according to the website.

The big bruiser is Churchill at 16.2h 1.67m which is smaller than the notable big boy So You Think who at 16.3h is for some odd reason is only classed at 1.66m? on the Coolmore site.

Fastenet Rock 16.1 1/2h. 1.66
Mastercraftsman. 16.1 1/2h 1.66
Sioux Nation. 16.1 1/2h 1.66
Footstepsinthesand 16.1h 1.65
Ivawood. 16.1h 1.65
Saxon Warrior. 16.1h. 1.64
Galileo. 16.01/2. 1.63
Australia. 16.01/2h 1.63
Kingston Hill 16.01/2h 1.63




Looks can be deceiving.

Caravaggio looked to be a typical big sprinter but he's just 15.3½ h 1.61.

Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World is only 15.3h 1 61

The smallest stallion there I think is Gustav Klimt who's 15.2h 1.58.

I was looking through the results for the day and one of the winners popped out at me in a how the mighty have fallen kind of way.

Surprise 2016 Grand Prix De Paris winner Mont Ormel was snapped up soon after that to run in Hong Kong where he runs under the name of Helene Charisma. Now aged 6 and Gelded he had been reduced to an OR 74 horse without a win since he won that French Gp1, he's now on a mini roll after today winning his 2nd minor handicap in a row at Happy Valley.

I hate that when a horse with a possible stallion career ahead of them then gets run into the ground to a stage where they're just Gelded and given up on.

Mont Ormel would probably have made a reasonably attractive NH sire. His own sire the bargain basement Air Chief Marshall comes from a mighty little family of triers. G1 2nd Air Chief Marshall is a brother to both the sire Misu Bond and the Irish 2,000 Guineas 2nd Foxtrot Romeo as well as being a half brother to last year's Irish St Leger winner Flag Of Honour, there's also the Sweet Solera stakes 2nd Slip Dancer and in total their dam Hawala has produced 12 winners out of 13 foals to hit the track with the 13th foal being the Galileo colt Four Leaf Clover who is just 3yo now and as he has had only the one run out yet for Aidan O'Brien it's odds on that he'll make it 13 winner out of 13 runners for his mighty dam Hawala.

Pivotal had a G1 winner ( Avilius ) yesterday in Australia and he is still covering mares at the age of 26. A class act.

tryfix wrote: »

Today Sir Erec proved that Camelot over Galileo ( 3x3 inbred to Sadler's Wells ) can indeed produce grade 1 winners, at least over the jumps he can. I think Magnier himself bred this fellow.

It's also a nice timely boost for the Montjeu line for anyone that's thinking of getting into the Montjeu line bargain bucket Epsom Derby winner Wings Of Eagles @ €6,500.

Similar type cross in today's Grade One hurdle winner at Liverpool, and Triumph Hurdle winner Pentland Hills, by the Montjeu Derby winner Motivator out of a Galileo mare.

Gleneagles got off the mark with his very first 2yo runner when 16/1 shot Highland Chief took a 5f maiden at Newbury. Gleneagles stock have sold very well at the sales and there's been a lot of talk about how well they are doing in training.

Mgoraf wrote: »

There's an American pharoah running in the first at naas tomorrow

From the pictures on apobfs.com it's a beast of a yoke ( it was named Horus Bird but that's being changed to Monarch Of Egypt which is a very boring name). I'd be surprised if there's not a heap of Gp winning 2yo American Pharoah's coming out of Ballydoyle this year, they have 7 of them in training.

I think Gleneagles will be a very successful stallion. He will take over from Galileo.

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

How long is Frankel's fee sustainable? He has a single horse still in the Guineas a 50/1 shot that was runner up in an all weather maiden at two. Those going to him hoping for a more precocious horse than even Galileo must be scratching their heads even if they have sold well. Can't see him being near this fee down the line. I'd imagine Kingman will be higher within two or three years. Probably Australia too

In the short term Frankel's fee is sustainable, despite many reservations about his stock he has produced the goods with his being the fastest ever to hit 20 group winners in the Northern Hemisphere and he has a great winners to runners ratio with an awful lot of 100+ rated runners. As trainers get more used to the many quirks of the Frankels it appears to be a case of not asking them for more than they can give and giving them plenty of time to come to hand. They are predominantly flat track bullies who dominate lesser quality horses but they find it hard to reproduce their best form against battle hardened Group 1 horses.

His weaknesses are with his fillies ( East may do a lot to address that ) but to my way of thinking there's a school of thought amongst the breeding fraternity that his fillies are going to be very valuable broodmare prospects ( as long as they think that his fee will stay high ). Time will tell but the mares that are being supplied to him are of a high enough quality to ensure that his stock will be good broodmares with or without Frankel's help.