Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

lucky john · 22-01-2020 4:47pm

Have Tesla new battery tec? link should bring you to a twitter account with claims by Maxwell (Tesla Owned) that they have made a big breakthrough.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EO12QXHVUAUFHeb?format=jpg&name=small

Thargor · 22-01-2020 6:12pm

600 incoming, sold mine @ 320 ages ago :mad:

lucky john · 22-01-2020 7:56pm

Word is that Model Y delivers to start in February.

Markcheese · 23-01-2020 4:27pm

Are Tesla going to only going to use their battery tech for Tesla cars ( and power walls ) or are they likely to licence it out ?

FFVII · 23-01-2020 4:56pm

Markcheese wrote: »

Are Tesla going to only going to use their battery tech for Tesla cars ( and power walls ) or are they likely to licence it out ?

Is theirs better?

unkel · 23-01-2020 5:04pm

There's nothing to license out, is there? They make cells like everyone else (although because of the in house building and the economies of scale, they have a slight edge in terms of cost) and the main difference is that they build them safer and cool them better than others. With old skool techniques.

lucky john · 23-01-2020 9:17pm

Markcheese wrote: »

Are Tesla going to only going to use their battery tech for Tesla cars ( and power walls ) or are they likely to licence it out ?

Tesla's battery technology and drive train is the best out there and continuously moving further ahead of the competition. It would be crazy to do it but some analysts have a future SP target based on Tesla manufacturing and selling the drive train to other auto companies.

Tesla can very well add value to the drive train themselves without any need to be selling one of their best asserts. However, for the competition it would be a great idea. Take Ford. They are refusing to invest in any battery manufacturing because they believe the goal posts will move so fast they could be left with an obsolete factory before the paint is dry on the walls. That's the kind of commitment to EVs that has let Tesla gain such an advantage on them.

It's possible some analysts have looked at the deal Tesla and Fiat have done in Europe on fleet pooling (Co2 related) and read to much into it.

Timmaay · 29-01-2020 7:24pm

Tesla on a reasonable bull run again today, will be interesting what tonights Q4 profit figures bring.

Sabre Man · 29-01-2020 10:23pm

Earnings are out:
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c928b914b529

fricatus · 29-01-2020 10:30pm

$620 in after-hours trading. Mother of divine!

q85dw7osi4lebg · 29-01-2020 10:33pm

Wow.

Fair play bulls.

Still don’t like the market cap compared to the high output manufacturers however.

Elon is some man.

Thargor · 29-01-2020 11:12pm

$655 now after hours, the big selloff people are waiting for might not come until $1000!

cefh17 · 29-01-2020 11:25pm

Thargor wrote: »

$655 now after hours, the big selloff people are waiting for might not come until $1000!

Some guy on WSB bought $635 7/Feb calls with $1000 he didn't have (Some kind of direct deposit thing on Robinhood) and sold them before earnings for $1,025. It's worth about $70k now apparently..
https://imgur.com/gallery/je0BjTc

Thargor · 29-01-2020 11:37pm

cefh17 wrote: »

Some guy on WSB bought $635 7/Feb calls with $1000 he didn't have (Some kind of direct deposit thing on Robinhood) and sold them before earnings for $1,025. It's worth about $70k now apparently..
https://imgur.com/gallery/je0BjTc

Wallstreetbets is hilarious these days.

lucky john · 29-01-2020 11:39pm

The penny may finally be dropping for the haters. This kind of result was on the cards for a while. this time next year will be the big one though. No intention of selling until then. Up 12% after hours is a bit of an over reaction though. call should be interesting

cefh17 · 29-01-2020 11:41pm

Thargor wrote: »

Wallstreetbets is hilarious these days.

The gif movies are just the icing on the cake haha

crushproof · 30-01-2020 9:13am

Unbelievable, I'm a sucker for being a non-believer and not getting on board but again well done to all who are making a mint!

MajesticDonkey · 30-01-2020 12:28pm

cefh17 wrote: »

Some guy on WSB bought $635 7/Feb calls with $1000 he didn't have (Some kind of direct deposit thing on Robinhood) and sold them before earnings for $1,025. It's worth about $70k now apparently..
https://imgur.com/gallery/je0BjTc

What is this exactly?

Timmaay · 31-01-2020 10:36pm

I got 22 individual shares/investments in my Degiro account, 21 of them down today, but Tesla at a new high of 650.

Rashers Big Log · 02-02-2020 11:18am

lucky john wrote: »

The penny may finally be dropping for the haters. This kind of result was on the cards for a while. this time next year will be the big one though. No intention of selling until then. Up 12% after hours is a bit of an over reaction though. call should be interesting

What in the 10Q makes you think this was a good quarter? GAAP loss for the year of 700m or so, decline in Capex and R and D, dodgy non explanation of FCF numbers I’m curious as to what you see in the numbers that justifies the algos/ retail baggies/ CCP blowing this bubble up the way they are.

I’ve covered to mitigate overall risk to portfolio and took a hammering but my advice to anyone in TSLA, either long or short would be to trade VERY carefully. The minute the institutions decide to step in and pull the rug, it’ll be scary.

I’ll be very interested to read the fully audited K when it’s released

Timmaay · 03-02-2020 3:49pm

Just about to break 700!

unkel · 03-02-2020 3:58pm

USD715 a second ago :eek:

themossinator · 03-02-2020 4:02pm

You can still some hear some bearishness from certain analysts here and there, some disbelief still
so probably some more upside here still although getting really extended now!

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 03-02-2020 5:30pm

730 USD. :eek:

Timmaay · 03-02-2020 5:49pm

To cash out and take a 30% gain in 2 or 3wks, or to hold on for 800 hmmmm???

Thargor · 03-02-2020 6:39pm

Hold for a 1000 at this rate.

sk8board · 03-02-2020 6:53pm

Timmaay wrote: »

To cash out and take a 30% gain in 2 or 3wks, or to hold on for 800 hmmmm???

since the results last week it’s not following any rational data analysis or valuation logic.
They’ve added almost 20bn (!) in market cap already today.
It feels like that time oil went close to the mental barrier of $100 for the first time and traders drove it up to get the monkey off their back - in the case of tsla if feels like they are going after Toyotas MC, get the headlines and then come back

Rashers Big Log · 03-02-2020 7:02pm

Timmaay wrote: »

To cash out and take a 30% gain in 2 or 3wks, or to hold on for 800 hmmmm???

This is an auto manufacturer who have lost money for a decade including 700 million USD this year. They ‘delivered’ 360,000 cars this yr, barely touching low end of guidance. They’ve guided for 500,000 cars next year (below top end guidance last year) they have a factory in China that may or may not be at all operational this quarter. The CEO is likely one of the greatest fraudsters of the last 50 years and is releasing drug fuelled dance tunes on twitter while saying he’s going to cure brain cancer and Parkinson’s. For gods sake man, trade carefully.

Well done on your profits but think about the fundamentals here. You are watching a black box frenzy and trust me, your chance of catching the top is insanely low.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 03-02-2020 7:02pm

What in God's name

Rashers Big Log · 03-02-2020 7:03pm

Thargor wrote: »

Hold for a 1000 at this rate.

Based on what??????

themossinator · 03-02-2020 7:16pm

Timmaay wrote: »

To cash out and take a 30% gain in 2 or 3wks, or to hold on for 800 hmmmm???

you should really have a target set, or know when you are going to take some off the table
whenever this corrects it probably won't be pretty

Arrival · 03-02-2020 7:59pm

Timmaay wrote: »

To cash out and take a 30% gain in 2 or 3wks, or to hold on for 800 hmmmm???

Hold long-term, if you're not badly stuck for the money it's better to see where it goes and enjoy the ride. Definitely wouldn't be selling everything at least if you decide to sell soon

Thargor · 03-02-2020 9:09pm

Thargor wrote: »

Hold for a 1000 at this rate.

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

Based on what??????

I was joking but the OP thanked the post so I want to make that clear that I was joking. Dont take advice from the internet. Think about taking out your original stake or a chunk anyway, this is Bitcoin mania, it could fall hard, nobody knows.

unkel · 03-02-2020 9:16pm

Camilla Damaged Economist wrote: »

What in God's name

Never mind him. One of the few that didn't have the balls to put their money where their mouth is and go short on TSLA, I guess that's why he's still in here trolling. The others are long gone and are lying under a duvet crying somewhere in mummy's attic room

lucky john · 03-02-2020 10:24pm

I don't suppose there's no point trying to work out what happened with the share price today. Even less point trying to predict what tomorrow will bring. Remember all the rancor over the $420. That's almost 100% ago.

Larry Ellison bought a $billion dollars worth of shares last year at $335. Well over doubled his billion in a few months. My wife thought I was crazy buying the few I bought at $230. I'm in trouble later when I tell her what they are today A...for not selling now & B... for not buying a lot more back then.

Prezatch · 03-02-2020 11:07pm

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

Based on what??????

Analysts like it a lot, they can barely keep up. One popular one set a new target of 808 today which was partly the reason for the jump. Along with improved relations and profitability at Panasonic due to Tesla, and continued strong demand for Model 3.

Regrettably I am the OP and the 24% gain I took on this doesn’t look so impressive any more!

themossinator · 04-02-2020 12:48am

https://twitter.com/Itsjoeco/status/1224372451431407621?s=20

watch out...

q85dw7osi4lebg · 04-02-2020 9:54am

Head tells me it should drop back by 6/7 % today, so it'll more than likely see $1000.

sk8board · 04-02-2020 11:34am

Camilla Damaged Economist wrote: »

Head tells me it should drop back by 6/7 % today, so it'll more than likely see $1000.

.... and what does your data tell you?

we're in bitcoin territory circa Oct 2018. Amateur investors are piling in, based on gut feel alone.

"when the bellboy is giving you stock advice" etc etc ...

institutional investors will cash out, because thats what the logical data will tell them to do at these prices, and that'll be that for a while.

sReq | uTeK · 04-02-2020 11:39am

I genuinely don't understand the reason behind this stock and its inflated price. I would be very concerned at anyone buying in at this price.

Sabre Man · 04-02-2020 11:42am

sk8board wrote: »

.... and what does your data tell you?

we're in bitcoin territory circa Oct 2018. Amateur investors are piling in, based on gut feel alone.

"when the bellboy is giving you stock advice" etc etc ...

institutional investors will cash out, because thats what the logical data will tell them to do at these prices, and that'll be that for a while.

Yesterday's volume was 46.4 million shares. That's got to be more than just amateur investors.

sk8board · 04-02-2020 12:03pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Yesterday's volume was 46.4 million shares. That's got to be more than just amateur investors.

definitely more than just amateurs - exactly what happened with BTC. Institutional investors know more than retail and always will - they smell a bubble and are happy with the risk. true amateurs only smell profit and stories of gains.

Ask the question: what rational reason would make you buy tesla today. The only reason is momentum - but equally that momentum never sustains.

The institutional investors will pump in, ride the wave for a while and then dump. Amateurs won't dump, they never do. They always believe their gut feel was right and stay in too long.

the herd is ALWAYS wrong on this stuff.

edit: the final number of new investors in tsla from Robinhood, yesterday alone, was over 11,000 (!). 11,000 amateurs smelt quick gains yesterday that they didn't smell at any point below 700, based on no logical data analysis, and we know what that means.

Now extrapolate that Robinhood number worldwide - thats a lot of new investors in a single day who suddenly decided that this stock represents value.

ELM327 · 04-02-2020 1:01pm

I'm just laughing at the shorts.
This is great, anytime opening my revolut is showing me more and more gains.

I'm not cashing out, if it drops back to $400 that's still me in the green towards my cybertruck.

04-02-2020 1:16pm

ELM327 wrote: »

........

I'm not cashing out, if it drops back to $400 that's still me in the green towards my cybertruck.

What price would tempt you to sell?

greenfield21 · 04-02-2020 1:19pm

Looks like another big day, testing 850 premarket. Probably shorts knowing they need to buy now

Arrival · 04-02-2020 1:21pm

ELM327 wrote: »

I'm just laughing at the shorts.
This is great, anytime opening my revolut is showing me more and more gains.

I'm not cashing out, if it drops back to $400 that's still me in the green towards my cybertruck.

You don't properly own shares that you buy using Revolut, just fyi in case you were unaware

04-02-2020 1:24pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

........... Probably shorts knowing they need to buy now

:eek:

I doubt anyone is that daft tbh. Well, maybe they are to be fair. Hard to fathom though.

phantom_lord · 04-02-2020 1:33pm

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

This is an auto manufacturer who have lost money for a decade including 700 million USD this year. They ‘delivered’ 360,000 cars this yr, barely touching low end of guidance. They’ve guided for 500,000 cars next year (below top end guidance last year) they have a factory in China that may or may not be at all operational this quarter. The CEO is likely one of the greatest fraudsters of the last 50 years and is releasing drug fuelled dance tunes on twitter while saying he’s going to cure brain cancer and Parkinson’s. For gods sake man, trade carefully.

Well done on your profits but think about the fundamentals here. You are watching a black box frenzy and trust me, your chance of catching the top is insanely low.

It's madness. I'm not stepping in from of this train, but there's going to be great opportunity to sell this again soon.

ELM327 · 04-02-2020 1:51pm

Arrival wrote: »

You don't properly own shares that you buy using Revolut, just fyi in case you were unaware

Do go on....

Augeo wrote: »

What price would tempt you to sell?

Unsure. Hadnt envisaged selling before cybertruck launch

unkel · 04-02-2020 1:53pm

phantom_lord wrote: »

Short case looking strong

This was posted when TSLA was at about USD230 about 9 months ago

Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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