Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

kevinandrew · 06-03-2020 8:07pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

They're managing to get out of paying refunds to destinations such as Israel, Jordan, Georgia etc. for flights out of Italy as the local governments have cancelled flights out of high risk areas...

So Ryanair get to save on costs of running a crewed aircraft, plus get to retain passengers airfares, only loss for them is on ancillaries, but still a net gain..

Ryanair should be offering refunds, reroutes or rebooking on any flights they’ve cancelled.

https://www.ryanair.com/ie/en/useful-info/disruptions-and-refunds/coronavirus-covid-19

Tenzor07 · 06-03-2020 8:20pm

kevinandrew wrote: »

Ryanair should be offering refunds, reroutes or rebooking on any flights they’ve cancelled.

They're still running flights from Italy into Georgia from what I read here:

GEORGIA

Due to the impact of COVID-19 and following the request of governmental owned Georgian airports, we have suspended a number of flights from Italy to Georgia. All customers affected by these specific changes have been notified of their options of a full refund or a free flight time/date change.

Flights from Milan Bergamo to Tbilisi will operate until 7th of March and are reduced to 2 weekly frequency from 8th March until 7th April inclusive
Flights from Bologna to Kutaisi will operate until 7th of March and will be cancelled from 8th March until 7th April inclusive

IngazZagni · 06-03-2020 10:40pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

This is a quiet time of the year to start with

I've flown around this time of the year regularly and not unusual to have 20-40 on a A320 flying back from Berlin/Dusseldorf

So while numbers are vastly down the numbers were not great anyway

It is a quiet time of the year however this is noted as being a very busy time of year for summer holiday bookings. Airlines would be used to getting lots of summer holiday bookings this time of year but that is clearly not happening and they know it hence this move.

Tenger · 06-03-2020 11:22pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

It is a quiet time of the year however this is noted as being a very busy time of year for summer holiday bookings. Airlines would be used to getting lots of summer holiday bookings this time of year but that is clearly not happening and they know it hence this move.

Absolutely. Airlines get a surge of revenue at this time of year.
Whether it’s holidaymakers or conference attendees.

Airlines know the customer behaviour. They aren’t going on a hunch.

Van.Bosch · 07-03-2020 12:59am

Aer Lingus offering free cancellation on bookings made from today.

Little detail on when it is until but it means I can book a few trips and push out if needed, so it works.

Inquitus · 07-03-2020 3:00pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Aer Lingus offering free cancellation on bookings made from today.

Little detail on when it is until but it means I can book a few trips and push out if needed, so it works.

As long as there is no major movement in the prices its a fair offer.

trellheim · 07-03-2020 3:01pm

Aer Lingus offering free cancellation on bookings made from today.

Yeek must have been a savage dropoff

Van.Bosch · 07-03-2020 3:39pm

trellheim wrote: »

Yeek must have been a savage dropoff

Sorry - it’s free changes, not cancellations.

Tenzor07 · 07-03-2020 5:50pm

Tenger wrote: »

Absolutely. Airlines get a surge of revenue at this time of year..

Problem now for all Airlines is that the revenue gained in bookings for the upcoming season are the cash they'll need to get through the next winter/low season 2020/21.. After this month the summer schedule will come into effect...

If there's not enough bookings for this summer season then we'll see further route cuts, staff layoffs, and weaker airlines going bust...

I think this current crisis which is still far from reaching its peak continues then we may see the face of aviation travel changing for a very long time to come, with people changing their travel habits and low-cost carriers disappearing...

Not to mention manufacturers like Airbus considering suspending production of the 330Neo.
And Boeing having 1000's of Max's which may never get delivered now...

L1011 · 07-03-2020 6:33pm

Airbus have said they are looking at cutting, not suspending, 330neo production - unless sometimes massively changed since yesterday.

GM228 · 07-03-2020 6:44pm

L1011 wrote: »

Airbus have said they are looking at cutting, not suspending, 330neo production - unless sometimes massively changed since yesterday.

Not helped by AisAsiaX (the biggest single customer of the A330neo) deferring delivery of their 78 A330neos no doubt.

Cutting production makes sense as there is still a healthy backlog of various airframes anyway.

Nijmegen · 08-03-2020 12:16pm

Weird seeing the headlines re quarantine of Lombardy but plenty of flights still going to and from Milan, for example.

Coil Kilcrea · 08-03-2020 2:53pm

Just curious, which is better from an airline's perspective significantly reduce capacity, owning or leasing the planes?

Tenger · 08-03-2020 2:59pm

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

Just curious, which is better from an airline's perspective significantly reduce capacity, owning or leasing the planes?

Leasing contracts will usually have a "end lease early" penalty clause.
This allows the airline to offload excess capacity (for a once off payment) if they need to. If you own the aircraft its harder to get rid of in a global downturn as suddenly there are lots of planes for sales and lease.

So the terms of the lease will determine the penalty clause

Tenzor07 · 08-03-2020 7:33pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

Weird seeing the headlines re quarantine of Lombardy but plenty of flights still going to and from Milan, for example.

Situation is changing rapidly in that region now, of which Malpensa and Bergamo are located..

I would imagine it's only a matter of days before severe restrictions if not closures are ordered for the airports also...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/leaked-coronavirus-plan-to-quarantine-16m-sparks-chaos-in-italy

Tenger · 08-03-2020 7:44pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Situation is changing rapidly in that region now, of which Malpensa and Bergamo are located..

I would imagine it's only a matter of days before severe restrictions if not closures are ordered for the airports also...

Doesn't this just announced lockdown already cover flights?

Caranica · 08-03-2020 7:47pm

Tenger wrote: »

Doesn't this just announced lockdown already cover flights?

Airports are excluded.

It's not just Milan area airports that are in locked down areas, Venice and Treviso too. All currently open

Tenzor07 · 08-03-2020 7:47pm

Tenger wrote: »

Doesn't this just announced lockdown already cover flights?

Just checked:

Airline Alitalia is reorganising air services at Milan and Venice airports from Monday following the Italian government's coronavirus measures. It will operate only domestic flights to and from Milan Linate Airport and serve international routes from Rome airport

No point in closing roads and train lines if people can still take a flight out of the region....

Tenzor07 · 08-03-2020 7:49pm

Israel are now considering banning All flights into the country, not just from Italy, Iran or China...

PinOnTheRight · 08-03-2020 8:03pm

It seems confirmed now that Lufthansa will temporarily ground it's fleet of 14 A380s. Virgin has brought forward the retirement of their last 3 A340-600s to this week.

I believe EI are looking volunteers for unpaid leave in roles across the operation including aircrew.

Tenzor07 · 08-03-2020 8:40pm

Perhaps time to change the thread title to "Coronavirus, future complications on Aviation"

Even if this current crisis passes by the end of the summer, I think it has caused a lot of people to reconsider how much they actually need to travel, certainly businesses will be looking at cost savings for those on travel for work, and the greater use of teleconferencing etc..

The public at large after the peak of the crisis, and keeping in mind climate/environmental concerns, will also take a long time to regain lost confidence to get on multiple flights per year.

Larger airline companies may merge and become one with other large carriers in order to survive, smaller carriers will do the same or go bankrupt... Boeing may have to be broken up and sold off, Airbus may cut down/suspend production across all models....

I don't think we'll truly know the full impact until after the summer season, but i'm predicting a very different aviation landscape than the one we've been used to...

GM228 · 09-03-2020 1:37am

Perhaps one plus of the virus is the overnight Brent Crude Oil crash, will it lower aviation fuel bills slightly and help struggling airlines?

Larbre34 · 09-03-2020 1:40am

GM228 wrote: »

Perhaps one plus of the virus is the overnight Brent Crude Oil crash, will it lower aviation fuel bills slightly and help struggling airlines?

Not to the extent required by them. No point hedging fuel for flights that may never occur.

They will have to start rationalisation of sectors and setting a minimum load factor to avoid burning too much cash.

billy few mates · 09-03-2020 8:34am

Larbre34 wrote: »

Not to the extent required by them. No point hedging fuel for flights that may never occur.

They will have to start rationalisation of sectors and setting a minimum load factor to avoid burning too much cash.

Down 30% overnight...
There's got to be some opportunities there...

basill · 09-03-2020 11:18am

PinOnTheRight wrote: »

It seems confirmed now that Lufthansa will temporarily ground it's fleet of 14 A380s. Virgin has brought forward the retirement of their last 3 A340-600s to this week.

I believe EI are looking volunteers for unpaid leave in roles across the operation including aircrew.

Lets not jump the gun on EI flight crew just now as nothing has been published. I understand there is a meeting this week to discuss this very issue. Willie Walsh has gone on record stating that he wants the airlines within IAG to be ready for the rebound and the EI CEO said the same late last week on an internal newsfeed.

goingnowhere · 09-03-2020 11:24am

Just to note EI has been understaffed through 2018/19, issues with pilot hours etc had led to issues, flights cancelled, flights operated by other carriers (Titan etc) to cover.

Load factors are not too bad on primary route such as LHR

The real point where this hinges is the civil service. Currently there is NO travel ban in force within the civil service apart from to locations the DFA has red flagged. If the civil service stop flying it will be a blood bath.

Cookiemunster · 09-03-2020 11:29am

The civil service? How many of the 500K civil servants in the country actually travel for work? Very few I'd say. Private business numbers would vastly outnumber civil servants.

goingnowhere · 09-03-2020 1:02pm

There is a massive gravy train to Brussels and other EU capitals

Civil service covers all the state bodies as well as the main departments. If they stop flying all the semi states follow

EI hold (or held) the UK civil service transport contract from London to Belfast.

Hotblack Desiato · 09-03-2020 1:24pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

The civil service? How many of the 500K civil servants in the country actually travel for work? Very few I'd say. Private business numbers would vastly outnumber civil servants.

There are about 30k civil servants in the country.

The entire public sector would be about 350k.

I'd say easily 95% of them never fly anywhere for work. Probably more than that.

Cookiemunster · 09-03-2020 1:24pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

There is a massive gravy train to Brussels and other EU capitals

Civil service covers all the state bodies as well as the main departments. If they stop flying all the semi states follow

And it still wouldn't come anywhere near private business in numbers.

howyanow · 09-03-2020 2:05pm

I am just looking for some advice,I hope its the right forum to ask.
I am due to fly Aer Lingus to US early April.
If my flight is to be cancelled,can I request to be pit on another route maybe a day or 2 later?Id still like to go somewhere if possible.
Also,how would one get by if they were to pick up the virus and have to be quarantined in NYC for example?I know its unlikely to happen but still could.

I would think rent an air bnb for 2 weeks and get food delivered.

Hope it passes soon and too many people dont get affrected.

Geuze · 09-03-2020 2:22pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

The civil service? How many of the 500K civil servants in the country actually travel for work? Very few I'd say. Private business numbers would vastly outnumber civil servants.

There are approx 35k civil servants, maybe 40k max.

zone 1 · 09-03-2020 2:41pm

stobart air in trouble, or was it just flybe as we no.

Locker10a · 09-03-2020 3:00pm

zone 1 wrote: »

stobart air in trouble, or was it just flybe as we no.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/irish/stobart-air-is-insulated-from-flybe-failure-walsh-39008674.html

Cookiemunster · 09-03-2020 3:13pm

Geuze wrote: »

There are approx 35k civil servants, maybe 40k max.

Well that just prove my point even more then doesn't it? (I was lumping all public and civil servants into the same group)

Masala · 09-03-2020 3:48pm

As a matter of interest....... where does Ryanair park up its unused aircraft. I know usually parking up would be a Winter thing but if there decided to reduce capacity as a result of Covid-19 and park up a few planes - where would they do so??? I presume they have to pay parking charges wherever it is so there is going to be a cost.

Kev11491 · 09-03-2020 5:59pm

howyanow wrote: »

I am just looking for some advice,I hope its the right forum to ask.
I am due to fly Aer Lingus to US early April.
If my flight is to be cancelled,can I request to be pit on another route maybe a day or 2 later?Id still like to go somewhere if possible.
Also,how would one get by if they were to pick up the virus and have to be quarantined in NYC for example?I know its unlikely to happen but still could.

I would think rent an air bnb for 2 weeks and get food delivered.

Hope it passes soon and too many people dont get affrected.

If it's canceled due to the coronavirus being particularly bad in the area of the US you're going to it would be foolish for you to go tbh.

If its canceled due to lack of demand because of the coronavirus and the destination isn't too bad, then go and take precautions.

Tenger · 09-03-2020 7:11pm

billy few mates wrote: »

Down 30% overnight...
There's got to be some opportunities there...

Definitely time to lock in a price for future fuel. Ryanair could do very well here.

Masala wrote: »

As a matter of interest....... where does Ryanair park up its unused aircraft. I know usually parking up would be a Winter thing but if there decided to reduce capacity as a result of Covid-19 and park up a few planes - where would they do so??? I presume they have to pay parking charges wherever it is so there is going to be a cost.

"park up" and "grounded" conjure up ideas of 5-6 aircraft parked in the corner of an airport.
In reality what they would do is fly all their aircraft a little less then usual. So maybe if the have a base with 6 aircaft and instead of each one doing 6 sectors a day, they will operate 4 sectors a day.
Thus this action is equivalent to "parking" 1/3 of their fleet there.

howyanow · 09-03-2020 11:05pm

Kev11491 wrote: »

If it's canceled due to the coronavirus being particularly bad in the area of the US you're going to it would be foolish for you to go tbh.

If its canceled due to lack of demand because of the coronavirus and the destination isn't too bad, then go and take precautions.

Thanks for your reply.
I wouldnt go to the US but was thinking if they would offer a seat to Portugal/Canaries as an alternative id be happy with that.

Tenzor07 · 10-03-2020 10:35am

Listening to the radio this morning they were saying that if a "Treatment" for CV19 is found by end of next month that this should put some confidence back into the consumer market and airlines would introduce massive seat sales to try and restart the market again...

sparrowcar · 10-03-2020 11:23am

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Listening to the radio this morning they were saying that if a "Treatment" for CV19 is found by end of next month that this should put some confidence back into the consumer market and airlines would introduce massive seat sales to try and restart the market again...

That "IF" is huge though, i thought the talk was of months or years for a treatment/vaccine?

DubDani · 10-03-2020 11:59am

BA just announced the cancellation of all Flights to Italy for the next 3 weeks.

Aer Lingus & Ryanair can't be far behind, especially with the latest Government advice to avoid all travel to Italy.

Tenzor07 · 10-03-2020 12:35pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

That "IF" is huge though, i thought the talk was of months or years for a treatment/vaccine?

Yes, a treatment is something that helps the patient manage the disease, in Japan they are testing a drug made to fight against HIV to see if it's effective in managing the effects of the virus on the body for example.

a Vaccine is different in that it builds a persons immunity to the virus and prevents them getting it in the first place, this may not be full released until early 2021.

Caranica · 10-03-2020 12:49pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Yes, a treatment is something that helps the patient manage the disease, in Japan they are testing a drug made to fight against HIV to see if it's effective in managing the effects of the virus on the body for example.

a Vaccine is different in that it builds a persons immunity to the virus and prevents them getting it in the first place, this may not be full released until early 2021.

The testing requirements (pre clinical and clinical) make those timescales unlikely for new treatments but afaik if a treatment is already licensed (HIV mentioned above but I've also seen rheumatoid arthritis drugs mentioned) they can accelerate the process as side effects etc are already known.

Tenzor07 · 10-03-2020 1:00pm

Caranica wrote: »

The testing requirements (pre clinical and clinical) make those timescales unlikely for new treatments but afaik if a treatment is already licensed (HIV mentioned above but I've also seen rheumatoid arthritis drugs mentioned) they can accelerate the process as side effects etc are already known.

I'm not a Medical Doctor so I don't know any further technical details. I can only tell you what I heard this morning.

News of a treatment will signal a pivot point, and return public confidence again... at which point major sales will occur to get passengers flying...

Caranica · 10-03-2020 1:11pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

I'm not a Medical Doctor so I don't know any further technical details. I can only tell you what I heard this morning.

News of a treatment will signal a pivot point, and return public confidence again... at which point major sales will occur to get passengers flying...

I used to work in the field, though not a doctor. It can take up to 5 years for a compound to clear the required tests which is why the best chance is to find an already licensed drug that is effective. It still will have to be cleared by the regulators but it's a much less onerous task.

I agree that anything that boosts consumer confidence is good for the aviation industry. If anyone is to consider picking up some of the Flybe ex Ireland routes they need to be sure of demand and at the moment there's little to none.

Caranica · 10-03-2020 1:22pm

Norwegian cutting flights and jobs
https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1237350855629832196?s=19

Locker10a · 10-03-2020 1:31pm

Caranica wrote: »

Norwegian cutting flights and jobs
https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1237350855629832196?s=19

It’s a good opportunity for them really, similar to Flybe they’re not in great shape anyway

Nibs05 · 10-03-2020 2:08pm

Ryanair cancelling all flights to and from Italy

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ryanair-to-suspend-flights-to-italy-as-country-goes-into-lockdown-1.4198481?mode=amp

Time · 10-03-2020 2:11pm

Nibs05 wrote: »

Ryanair cancelling all flights to and from Italy

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ryanair-to-suspend-flights-to-italy-as-country-goes-into-lockdown-1.4198481?mode=amp

Aer lingus can't be far behind, i flew back Saturday and there was about 6 of us on the flight (Self isolating now before anyone gives me sh!t about it)

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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