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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • #2652
    To Alcohol
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭To Alcohol


    I think it’s just going to be one of those frustrating winters for snow and cold lovers. Just keeps getting pushed out ☹️


  • #2653
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    If you've taken out dusted off your sled after yesterday evenings run, you may put it back in after this morning. I've not emotionally invested in a cold snowy spell thankfully, not that it might not happen, but too much volatilty beyond about four or five days forecasts to believe the incredible charts of yesterday. Much more realism this morning.


  • #2654
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    To Alcohol wrote: »
    I think it’s just going to be one of those frustrating winters for snow and cold lovers. Just keeps getting pushed out ☹️

    Tbh,that's par for the course with a few noteable exceptions when introducing or trying to introduce the opposite weather to our climactic norm,it can take a week or 2 longer,it's very complicated,the very cold direction of travel seems more likely than unlikely to me even at this juncture so let's wait and see?


  • #2655
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Obviously here cold is looked for
    But in uncertainty, many normal climate options are as likely too dependent on what actually happens stateside


    https://twitter.com/TWOweather/status/1086532875946811392?s=19


  • #2656
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    As feared.


  • #2657
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    yCmvtYW.pngHWYs964.jpg?1

    :mad:


  • #2658
    YanSno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Probabilities of an Icelandic High is still there given the fact that the Artic sea ice extent is the 4th lowest since 1979.When sea ice extent is reduced, there is more energy being absorbed, not reflected, by the arctic ocean, which creates high pressure over Iceland. These factors can make NAO very unreliable.


  • #2659
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    After looking at this mornings models..

    'Well, I woke up, 'Saturday' morning
    With no way to hold my head, that didn't hurt
    And the beer I had for breakfast wasn't bad
    So I had one more for dessert
    Then I fumbled in my closet
    Through my clothes and found my cleanest, dirty shirts
    Then I washed my face and combed my hair
    And stumbled down the stairs to meet the day'

    :)


  • #2660
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Only fair to point out that in further FI this mornings GFS is superb for cold and that ties in with what a few of us were saying about this attempt falling but real cold coinciding with the turn of the month and staying for a while.

    Also, much sooner than that, early next week could yet produce the goods for a few hours for many on here. In fact when hewhomustntbementioned returns on Monday he may well want to open a dedicated thread for that......


  • #2661
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Some very dense fog about this morning, take care if traveling.


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  • #2662
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    The charts won't verify until Kermit opens a thread, then it's game on.. :-)


  • #2663
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Just like a rollercoaster, you have to go up to come down :D

    More questions than answers though after last nights runs. ECM an outlier but the mean is certainly up so it doesn’t look good for now.

    Also though as Rebelbrowser said FI looks interesting.

    I think I’ll stick to my prediction of a few false dawns before the goods arrive. February may well deliver again.


  • #2664
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    The NWS have confidence in all models this morning except the GFS as to their northeaster which could mean they've got the Atlantic profile fairly right with the obvious FI caveats as you move on
    This would be bad news for coldies as the week goes on

    I'll reserve judgement and refrain from comment untill Monday unless something extraordinary turns up
    Confidence can shift in any outcome


  • #2665
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    The NWS have confidence in all models this morning except the GFS as to their northeaster which could mean they've got the Atlantic profile fairly right with the obvious FI caveats as you move on
    This would be bad news for coldies as the week goes on

    I'll reserve judgement and refrain from comment untill Monday unless something extraordinary turns up
    Confidence can shift in any outcome

    Ah feck, we’ve still Tuesday to play for and whole of feb and March, and if we can’t get what we want I’ll happily take snow in (march)


  • #2666
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    GFS 6Z up to 9 days out keeping the cold furthur east and south.

    We still have February!


  • #2667
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    Hopefully all the 12Zs will take a turn for the better.

    The models seems to be heading to both extremes the last 5 days or so. No in between, which is probably what we'll get.


  • #2668
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,220 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Marengo wrote: »
    Hopefully all the 12Zs will take a turn for the better.

    The models seems to be heading to both extremes the last 5 days or so. No in between, which is probably what we'll get.

    Yeah waiting until the 12z today to really perhaps throw in the towel.

    Would be an impressive win for the ICON


  • #2669
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,229 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    That 06Z GFS is truly...awful!

    It's kinda funny to see the difference between the 18Z GFS and the 06Z, completely different


  • #2670
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    That 06Z GFS is truly...awful!

    It's kinda funny to see the difference between the 18Z GFS and the 06Z, completely different

    Ain't it ugly!


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  • #2671
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    That 06Z GFS is truly...awful!

    It's kinda funny to see the difference between the 18Z GFS and the 06Z, completely different

    It is bad , but take a look at netweather. Comical to see there comments from last night to this morning. 100 to 0 quick lol


  • #2672
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The NAO supports more of a scenario similar to the 06z.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #2673
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    It's like the models are copying one another..

    UKMO has a good one, GFS follows. ECM throws out a poor overnight run, it takes the GFS until 6Z to copy.


  • #2674
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Marengo wrote: »
    It's like the models are copying one another..

    UKMO has a good one, GFS follows. ECM throws out a poor overnight run, it takes the GFS until 6Z to copy.

    Overused at this point but still holds true.

    cz5DWX0.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #2675
    YanSno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    As i expected 6z gfs correcting itself. Most members going for positive NAO to neutral. 12z will more than likely be similar


  • #2676
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,229 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Id put the 6Z GFS and the 18Z in the same bucket, they're both less reliable than the other runs.

    And lads, remember, we're not picking the runs that suit what we're saying, we're taking an objective overall view.


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  • #2677
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    The models are still so confused they could live in a mental hospital. I keep saying this: take everything they throw out beyond 96hrs as utter rubbish and look at the trends.

    The ECM has gone from 4 good runs to 2 bad ones. The 00Z shows what looks like a polar low trying to sink over Europe and failing compared to bitter easterlies less than 48hrs ago.

    Look for the overall picture. Although in the last 24-36hrs across most models this is not as cold, focusing on any individual run or set of runs (from the same time) is a pointless exercise currently.

    In my view though, when the models struggle this much, something big is happening. Whether that's just the high level SSW and nothing more, or a sign of something else, is beyond my very limited talents.


  • #2678
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I knew once we saw that fantastic run last night from the GFS that the only way forward is down, and we're certainly at a low point in the rollercoaster right now. Latest run brings mild muck into Ireland and most if not all of UK after next Wednesday then a typical Atlantic flow. Recently it seems like the poor runs are starting to outnumber the good ones which isn't encouraging, the positive NAO also keeping the Atlantic with it's crosshairs upon us.


  • #2679
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,220 ✭✭✭pad199207


    If the 12z revert back to the cold/very cold week ahead then I’ll be gobsmacked

    I think the ICON already hinted at that in the 06z


  • #2680
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,324 ✭✭✭highdef


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Yeah waiting until the 12z today to really perhaps throw in the towel.

    Would be an impressive win for the ICON

    The latest frames on the ICON that's rolling out show the high pressure to the west of Iberia (Azores high) weakening. The last run had pressure steady and higher than the latest forecast.

    Secondly, the area of high pressure between Greenland and north of Scandinavia is that bit higher in pressure and these heights are slowly moving south. Will be interesting if the progress continues and also to see if the pressure rises any further.

    Thirdly, there's not too much difference with the state of, or the position of the low pressure in the Med, centered over northern Italy. In the latest run, it appears to be ever so slightly further east and is seems to have slightly colder air contained within in. Will be interesting to see how that low progresses as it's a key ingredient in the recipe for white gold.

    I'm in now way convinced that we'll be seeing the snow. I just try look at the charts and (most of the time) try keep my emotions at bay.


  • #2681
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    highdef wrote: »
    I'm in now way convinced that we'll be seeing the snow. I just try look at the charts and (most of the time) try keep my emotions at bay.


    I have to admit it's starting to look less and less certain for several reasons.

    The models are actually getting worse, they are swinging even more wildly now than they were a few days ago and arriving at a poor outcome more often. We have so many different outcomes over the past 48 hours from different models it's difficult to keep track of them all.

    There are too many factors keeping the blocking from impacting our little island.

    The positive NAO refusing to go negative is a big factor, its keeping the Atlantic alive.

    The cold keeps getting pushed back, a very familiar sign for us in this part of Europe.

    High pressures too close to Ireland and not moving into Greenland.

    Maybe if we resolve all these problems by 1st of February, then maybe we are onto something for February. We could be looking at more snowfest charts by this evening, and if so, why should I get really excited and suddenly believe them?


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  • #2682
    diceyd
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭diceyd


    What times do the models roll out at?


  • #2683
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    diceyd wrote: »
    What times do the models roll out at?

    Check out the following thread:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057916846

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #2684
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    It is bad , but take a look at netweather. Comical to see there comments from last night to this morning. 100 to 0 quick lol

    The 12z suite yesterday never said what they suggested it said. Delusion upon delusion over on NW


  • #2685
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    The second half of Jan curse strikes again. Don't know what it is but since the 80s we just can't seem to get a good and proper cold and snowy spell during the second half of Jan. Perhaps it's a case of something good arriving next month instead.


  • #2686
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    Billcarson wrote: »
    The second half of Jan curse strikes again. Don't know what it is but since the 80s we just can't seem to get a good and proper cold and snowy spell during the second half of Jan. Perhaps it's a case of something good arriving next month instead.

    Agree. Real peak winter when the lowest ever temp was recorded. -19.1C Jan 18/19 1881.


  • #2687
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    Suppose, as others said, what 12Z brings will be interesting.


  • #2688
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Marengo wrote: »
    Billcarson wrote: »
    The second half of Jan curse strikes again. Don't know what it is but since the 80s we just can't seem to get a good and proper cold and snowy spell during the second half of Jan. Perhaps it's a case of something good arriving next month instead.

    Agree. Real peak winter when the lowest ever temp was recorded. -19.1C Jan 18/19 1881.

    Yes and taking Jan as a whole the last great cold spell in Jan was first half of Jan 2010. Sad .


  • #2689
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Yes and taking Jan as a whole the last great cold spell in Jan was first half of Jan 2010. Sad .

    August being a poor/average summer month is a trend too.


  • #2690
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    January 2013 was close to a decent cold spell for Ireland but unfortunately due to our geography and how pressure patterns evolved, we were too far west. The UK got some lovely Winter days then. Alls I remember here was a 5 minute flurry on the 22nd, otherwise just cold, damp and dark much like the following March which you know my opinion on by this stage.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #2691
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    January 2013 was close to a decent cold spell for Ireland but unfortunately due to our geography and how pressure patterns evolved, we were too far west. The UK got some lovely Winter days then. Alls I remember here was a 5 minute flurry on the 22nd, otherwise just cold, damp and dark much like the following March which you know my opinion on by this stage.

    I had a few meetings over in London that January, there was great snowfall from about the 17th to the 20th.


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  • #2692
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Whatever happens, in a more reliable time frame, Monday night / Tuesday early looks very promising for the lamp post watching crew... :D


  • #2693
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I have to admit it's starting to look less and less certain for several reasons.

    The models are actually getting worse, they are swinging even more wildly now than they were a few days ago and arriving at a poor outcome more often. We have so many different outcomes over the past 48 hours from different models it's difficult to keep track of them all.

    There are too many factors keeping the blocking from impacting our little island.

    The positive NAO refusing to go negative is a big factor, its keeping the Atlantic alive.

    The cold keeps getting pushed back, a very familiar sign for us in this part of Europe.

    High pressures too close to Ireland and not moving into Greenland.

    Maybe if we resolve all these problems by 1st of February, then maybe we are onto something for February. We could be looking at more snowfest charts by this evening, and if so, why should I get really excited and suddenly believe them?

    Well said Gonzo. Sums up my and probably many others thoughts about our unfortunate location in the NH.


  • #2694
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Took a walk up to the hills here in SW Donegal, loads of snow about 5 inches..
    It didn't snow anything like that last year so 2019 is already trumping that. Four years to the very day there was heavy snow here too.

    49949572-10158562487667228-1794705964998328320-o.jpg


  • #2695
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    I said I wouldn't log on for a few days but the reality is that the situation regarding snow and cold has diminished so quickly that I felt obliged to log on. See how folk are coping. It's very disappointing. Was looking forward to some decent cold and a snowfall. I am not looking for Emma 2 but just a few days of snow cover. It really is game over. I can see the muck of February and March already. The dampness and that horrible grey glumness. The same temperature day and night. Awful.


  • #2696
    scottigael
    Registered Users Posts: 275 ✭✭scottigael


    Is the snow for tuesday called off as well? :o


  • #2697
    m17
    Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭m17


    Tuam Co galway 19/01/19 11.35 temperature 4°C
    qsQ8CgK.jpg


  • #2698
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    I said I wouldn't log on for a few days but the reality is that the situation regarding snow and cold has diminished so quickly that I felt obliged to log on. See how folk are coping. It's very disappointing. Was looking forward to some decent cold and a snowfall. I am not looking for Emma 2 but just a few days of snow cover. It really is game over. I can see the muck of February and March already. The dampness and that horrible grey glumness. The same temperature day and night. Awful.

    The eternal optpmist:D


  • #2699
    YanSno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Ok am more confident that we will have an Icelandic hp development soon, maybe by next weekend that's in relation with today's index. So i would expect 12z this afternoon to be a cold one. Now it depends where the hp sits could be on the cool dry side or cold side.


  • #2700
    KingJeremy
    Registered Users Posts: 133 ✭✭KingJeremy


    Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?


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  • #2701
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    KingJeremy wrote: »
    Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

    Staying up all night. Have your eyes firmly on the lamp post hoping to see the white gold fall in that orange glow. Only snowbie freaks like myself do it because we have no life :D.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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