Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

cherryghost wrote: »

It was only a few weeks ago, but if anyone remembers, the Yellow alert was issued 2 days in advance, an Orange alert the night before heavy streamer activity on 27/28, before a Red Alert for specific counties, well before Storm Emma arrived. It might be a very similar situation this weekend.

Anxiously awaiting this mornings models now

AFAIR, ME had started issuing yellow warnings on the Sunday before the last snow and had clearly flagged the likelihood of snow accumulations. They haven't mentioned accumulations at all in their forecasts for the upcoming cold spell so I think that we have to assume that they do not foresee significant snowfall. I know that there are other forecasters, such as Harmonie and Accuweather, suggesting more significant snow. However, you have to remember that most of these forecasts are automated with no human input. They're usually based on one model, like ECM or GFS or whatever. Ordinarily, I would say that's that and that we have to be guided by the professionals who have access to more charts than us.

However, the intriguing thing here is that the UK Met Office and BBC forecasts seem to show reasonably significant snow. Admittedly, the UK Met Office warnings for the UK don't show any huge amounts - nothing more than 5cm at present. The UK Met Office seems to be showing similar amounts over here in Ireland and while that's nothing like what we saw a fortnight ago, it's surely enough to trigger a yellow warning at least. I really don't understand it. We'll just have to wait and see, I suppose. Perhaps ME think that temperatures might be just a little on the high side on this side of the Irish Sea and enough to prevent accumulations? That wouldn't be an unreasonable bet this late in the year. Then again, if that were the case, you would expect warning for snow on hills.

ilovetorun wrote: »

How do you think waterford will fair out? I work in the hospital and wondering now should I make arrangements to be closer to work for Sunday/Monday. Followed this thread the last time and your knowledge and advice was invaluable to me.

See my post above. If you believe MetEireann, they'll be no appreciable snow at all so no problem. If they are wrong and snow does arrive, I would expect Waterford to see some. However, it will be nothing like the last spell and should be manageable for you.
Edit. Have just seen the posts above and MetEireann have updated! I still reckon that Waterford shouldn't see too much disruption.

Thread goes into overdrive since the ME advisory in 3...2...1....

Met E browsing boards

Winds at most stations in Denmark are now showing gusts to 80 or 90 km/hr (east) and although it's nearly mid-day there temps are below freezing. The Baltic has dropped this month to about 1-2 C at best, I checked back and the average in other years is closer to 4 C.

The leading edge of this arctic outbreak is starting to make progress south and west across the North Sea. Some very strong gusts to 120 km/hr at the oil platforms between Norway and Scotland (probably at 50m elevation but this gives an idea of what's coming towards the Irish Sea) within 36 hours.

This looks like a record-breaking cold air mass for time of year and it may surprise people how slowly it warms up on Monday if there is snow cover from Sunday. We'll see, just because thicknesses relax a bit does not mean the snow won't reflect insolation back into space. Often the coldest nights occur when the uppers have started to relax (inversion develops). I think we may be on -10 C watch Monday night.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This looks like a record-breaking cold air mass for time of year and it may surprise people how slowly it warms up on Monday if there is snow cover from Sunday. We'll see, just because thicknesses relax a bit does not mean the snow won't reflect insolation back into space. Often the coldest nights occur when the uppers have started to relax (inversion develops). I think we may be on -10 C watch Monday night.

Looks like your -11 in the weather competition won't be too far off!

Time for a technical thread methinks.

Klara Finkele this morning did say more widespread snow showers for a time on Sunday before dying out later in the day. I think they could be a bit clearer regarding accumulations in that 5-8 cm is still enough to cause problems in this country (but nowhere else). I can't see more than that at low levels, though.

HIRLAM and GFS both suggesting snow showers during the parade, ICON isn't too far off that also. Probably melt straight away with the daytime sun/temps, Dublin city centre would be a lot of fun if that comes off...

cherryghost wrote: »

GFS has cold pool pushed further north again. This low on Saturday into Sunday looks like its going to not only brush south Munster, but move inland to majority of Munster and Sustained snow in Waterford and Wexford and up the east coast on Sunday.

Are you saying that this is going to transition from a Lake effect to a Frontal Snow event.......AGAIN?!?! :eek:

ME have no warning for Tipp/Waterford. Definitely the east of both counties are in the firing line for as much as some western parts of Leinster. Gerry as usual last night just rambled through the same forecast at 2130 as he did at 1830 and was almost afraid to mention a wintry shower.

I really think ME should have a warning for a considerable wind chill tomorrow.
Anyone who's ever brought children to a St Patrick's Day parade know that it is very easy to get very cold when standing in the same place for a long time.
Wrap up kids tomorrow!

sunsetbeachfan wrote: »

Will there be enough snow tomorrow at one pm to affect a flight from Dublin to Portugal please.

No

Citizens of Sallins, please leave a little more snow for the rest of us this time!

highdef wrote: »

I still have snow several feet deep in a lot of the ditches near home.....I can bring some down to you if you want

Yeah that’s the snow that I gave to ya! Your keeping it well

jdcv94 wrote: »

Looks continuous in Wexford

Everyone I mentioned it to told me to fook off.:)

Looks like a small amount of snow alright for many Sunday am but if it freezes on top of that small amount roads will be like bottles on a busy bank hol weekend I think unless it thaws quickly??