Russian build up along Ukraine

blindsider wrote: »

Weather's improving - sun is higher in the sky....campaign season is almost upon us and The Bear is coming out of hibernation!

Dohvolle wrote: »

It wont.
Russian state sponsored media saying things like "Russians in Ukraine need to be protected" and "there is no Ukraine, just Nazi supporting rats".

Dohvolle wrote: »

The conflict did not stop, it is just moving to the next phase. Word is Putin is unwell, and this may be his big moment to make his name for eternity, before his illness sees him physically decline and withdraw from view, like so many former soviet leaders did before.

I dunno. Its no warmer, really, than at any point in the 7 odd years of conflict. The sabre rattling has always ebbed and flowed.

Putin knows if he starts anything serious in Ukraine proper, it will inevitably draw the West into active participation and he will lose Crimea, the Donestk enclave and his natural gas income.

The cancellation of Nord Stream II by Germany certainly ratchets up the stakes, but it doesn't really alter the geopolitical reality on the ground.

What's interesting from an Irish perspective is the pan-European approach. I saw on the news earlier, the NATO Sec Gen Stolltenberg in the EU Commission building in Brussels, standing in front of a bank of EU flags, giving an interview following an EU Defence Minister's meeting as if he were speaking for both bodies. Bearing in mind Poland, Latvia and Lithuania have formally commenced a NATO Article 4 process, fearing for their territorial integrity.

Is the line between the European NATO members and the EU itself thinning even more? Where will Ireland stand in possible NATO military action in Belarus or Ukraine

They do, but ZX is right, Putin won't let those elements create a scenario to bring him into direct conflict with NATO, none of them on their own are consequential enough to tip that balance. Its clear enough from Lukashenko's attitude in recent days that he got a spanking from Moscow for pushing his luck.

I also think its a bit rich of NATO to be demanding more from Ukraine in meeting improved governance objectives in order to join the Alliance, when they already include some very dodgy players like Bulgaria, Albania and turkey. NATO can't afford to continue their hypocrisy on that front, its just the sort of geopolitical vacuum that Putin loves to exploit.

If NATO don't step in, they might as well disband. I mean whats the point when it's appeasement after appeasement.

Its pretty obvious that Russia intends to annex everything east of the Dnieper River and join up Donbass and the Crimea with surrounding regions to create a buffer between Russia proper and the NATO frontier. But after that, for NATO, where does it stop. Moldova left to its fate on their doorstep? Then the Baltics?

If the World doesn't come together to reunify the integrity of Ukraine, then they can really have no right to complain when their own borders and territoreis are threatened by the likes of China in the western Pacific.

Hard to know which way this will go.

Libya not being in NATO didn't stop NATO forces going there in 2011 after a UN security council resolution was passed to allow it. Ukraine is not in NATO but does have cooperation agreements with NATO. If NATO stands idly by while Russia moves in, then NATO isn't worth much.

I understand that NATO are not under a strict obligation to get involved with a non member but if it's willing to go into Libya, but does nothing if Russia were to invade, then it just shows NATO up as opportunistic rather than an alliance that can maintain global stability. It also makes mockery of the cooperation pact between Ukraine and NATO. Putin has to be shown some genuine pushback by the West at some point. He'll keep pushing and pushing otherwise.

There are costs to helping defend Ukraine, but there are potential costs to standing idly by if Russia do decide to roll in as well.

If we say that realpolitik is the way of the world, then we run the risk of appeasement up to the point that the problem can no longer be ignored and be forced to fight while cursing that preventative measures had not been taken.

I'm not advocating war but I do think that Putin should be made to realise, and his peoples made to realise, that he cannot just push his weight around. It wouldn't end at Ukraine if he moves in and the line will have to be drawn somewhere.