Orange Wind Warning for Cork & Kerry - Strong Winds 10th & 11th March

Gaoth Laidir · 09-03-2021 11:23pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would say looking at model guidance this will get upgraded to orange for at least the west coast if not more widely, the current wind reports are from a much weaker leading wave that is no more than half as intense in terms of gradient. Also looking at the GFS depiction, the centre really doesn't make much gain in latitude and slams the core into the west coast. Okay, it's weaker looking then than now, but there's some room to weaken before getting to orange, this would be Darwin on steroids if Ireland was about to be hit by what's out there right now.

It's an STI Mystery to me why that oil tanker was routed so as to be overtaken by this bomb cyclone, not only a bomb but 1.25 bomb units (30 mb in 24 hrs).

Recent satellite image:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

In fact, it's about 1.5 units (Bergerons), as 1 unit is defined as 24xSin(latitude)/Sin(60). The 24 hPa/24 hrs only applies to a latitude of 60 degrees. South of that a unit is <24 hPa. At a latitude of 48N it works out at about 19.2 hPa/24 hrs.

corsav6 · 09-03-2021 11:42pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I hope it peaks in the orange range but I suspect Mace Head for example could hit 130 km/hr, Newport 115-120 for peak gusts. There's some chance this might actually be worse further south than Belmullet or Malin Head, however it's a bit early to get too precise on details, with this rapid development and fast motion we can assume it will be widespread and severe. The 18z guidance looks like an upgrade, I guess they had the input of that 85 knot ship report and a few other factors like perhaps the low has deepened a bit more explosively than models had been showing earlier.

Some chance I suppose of a fast rebound from this phase to the weakening phase but I wouldn't bet the ranch on that by the looks of the upper level winds.

Thanks MT, I appreciate your reply.
Even 130km/hr is bearable although rough. It's when gusts pass the 150km/hr things get interesting.

M.T. Cranium · 09-03-2021 11:47pm

That might happen at Kinsale energy and elevated lighthouse stations. This is closing in rather quickly now, there won't be much of a let up from tonight's preliminary round to the mid-day ramp up tomorrow. Front is at least 8 hours ahead of the pressure trough already. 18z RGEM takes the low to margin of its grid by 24h but looking intense around the M6 buoy at that time. Once again, strongest gradients are at Ireland's latitude rather than anywhere to north.

pad199207 · 10-03-2021 12:48am

Already very gusty in Kildare this evening with gusts of 60-70kmh.

10-03-2021 1:13am

Why no name for this storm.

Birdnuts · 10-03-2021 1:42am

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Wilder here in South dublin than any of the named storms this winter.

My parents were saying the same 2nite near Naas

M.T. Cranium · 10-03-2021 6:23am

No pattern of upgrades in 00z guidance so can probably take the red alert potential off the table, however, tides for Galway fairly well supported by the wind max, low tide predicted for 9:23 pm Wednesday, high tide 0253 Thursday. That one could be problematic.

Low is moving very rapidly now, at about one deg longitude per hour. Latest position about 51N 29W. Estimated pressure 964 mbs.

Graces7 · 10-03-2021 6:45am

Good morning out there from in here. A quiet night, and heavy hard rain just starting. As soon as it is light I will be out there, dragging coal and turf in. Door on dog lead... All set!

We had an unusual ESB cut last week; just two houses and there was minimum power left. Enough for the laptop. I apparently class with ESB as " vulnerable" ( age and disability)so get priority when this happens.They fixed it fast; said maybe a swan had hit the line .. Maybe more like a seagull!
Blew two heavy duty fuses..They are warning re power cuts today.

Marine warning went orange at some stage in the night; marine was defined as coastal land and 12 miles to sea.

Interesting day ahead; hoping the post gets over before... None for nearly a week now.

Stay safe!

redsteveireland · 10-03-2021 7:58am

A welcome wind event to shift this damp dreary grey and gloom from the west.

M.T. Cranium · 10-03-2021 8:00am

Yes, expect winds to ramp up there after mid-day with the peak probably around midnight, some indications that the strongest winds may hit the southwest and the south coast but I would expect Galway Bay and Clare coast to be keeping pace, may be about equal max gusts at the usual locations. (I had meant that for graces7 in terms of timing but would probably apply to anyone in the west really).

Graces7 · 10-03-2021 8:58am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes, expect winds to ramp up there after mid-day with the peak probably around midnight, some indications that the strongest winds may hit the southwest and the south coast but I would expect Galway Bay and Clare coast to be keeping pace, may be about equal max gusts at the usual locations. (I had meant that for graces7 in terms of timing but would probably apply to anyone in the west really).

Thanks! All is set; bitterly cold out there and ocean and sky a dark sinister foreboding gray. Ominous. And at least if power goes, as they are warning it may, the daylight is longer these days.

"wave overtopping"?

West Mayo offshore

Graces7 · 10-03-2021 10:42am

The wind has woken already after a flat calm while. Considerable loud gusts

Indeed it has really kicked off now..10.30

West Mayo offshore

Storm 10 · 10-03-2021 10:44am

Could this be upgraded later today it looks to be a big enough storm

Gaoth Laidir · 10-03-2021 11:04am

Airport warnings.

DUBLIN EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 101500/110600 WIND SFC SW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 1100/1102 SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=

CASEMENT EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 101200/110600 WIND SFC SSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 1102/1104 W 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=

CORK EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 101400/110500 WIND SFC SW 30-35KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 1101/1103 W 30-35KT MAX 50-55 FCST=

SHANNON EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 101500/110400 WIND SFC SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 1100/1102 W 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=

KNOCK EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 101400/110400 WIND SFC SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 1100/1102 W 20-25KT MAX 35-40 FCST=

mickger844posts · 10-03-2021 11:24am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Airport warnings.

DUBLIN EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 101500/110600 WIND SFC SW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 1100/1102 SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=

CASEMENT EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 101200/110600 WIND SFC SSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 1102/1104 W 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=

CORK EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 101400/110500 WIND SFC SW 30-35KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 1101/1103 W 30-35KT MAX 50-55 FCST=

SHANNON EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 101500/110400 WIND SFC SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 1100/1102 W 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=

KNOCK EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 101400/110400 WIND SFC SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 1100/1102 W 20-25KT MAX 35-40 FCST=

Waterford

--- TAFS() ---
TAF EIWF(WATERFORD) 100800Z 1009/1018 22010KT 3000 -DZ BR SCT001
BKN003 BECMG 1009/1011 21015G25KT TEMPO 1009/1016 0300 -RADZ FG BKN001
BECMG 1011/1013 22022G35KT BECMG 1014/1016 22025G48KT BECMG 1016/1018
9999 -RA SCT004 BKN012 =

Storm 10 · 10-03-2021 11:58am

Swear lads you could not make this up, Galway City Council warning about flooded car parks, they have all car parks at Salthill closed off since January.

https://twitter.com/GalwayCityCo/status/1369578855980208135?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

HappyDaze007 · 10-03-2021 12:09pm

Has this storm been named

sdanseo · 10-03-2021 12:56pm

Not as yet, no orange warning for land.

adocholiday · 10-03-2021 1:07pm

ICON and AROME both forecasting gusts near 100kph in the Wicklow/Dublin areas at around 4am-5am tomorrow, looks to be the worst of it for this part of the country.

Meteorite58 · 10-03-2021 1:10pm

Arome has backed off a tad on the highest winds in the SW, still strong mind you gusting to 110 km/h , maybe more along the coastal fringes and high ground.
Have included ICON Flash to see how well it does, showing stronger winds in the SW. One thing to note is the high winds that both models are showing in S Wexford / S Waterford in the early morning, more so closer to the coasts. AROME showing gusting up to 120 km/h, ICON flash showing touching 130 km/h on the coast. Will see if they get anything like that.

gozunda · 10-03-2021 1:13pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes, expect winds to ramp up there after mid-day with the peak probably around midnight, some indications that the strongest winds may hit the southwest and the south coast but I would expect Galway Bay and Clare coast to be keeping pace, may be about equal max gusts at the usual locations. (I had meant that for graces7 in terms of timing but would probably apply to anyone in the west really).

So main winds coming from south - south west direction or does that change as the front moves through?

M.T. Cranium · 10-03-2021 1:51pm

Direction likely to veer SSW to WSW, may reach due west at times late overnight then settle back to WSW on Thursday. M6 buoy gusts to 94 km/hr at 11z then slight decrease for 12z, satellite imagery appears to have strongest frontal zone approaching west coast around 3-5 p.m. ... could be some squally showers with that.

Graces7 · 10-03-2021 2:07pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Direction likely to veer SSW to WSW, may reach due west at times late overnight then settle back to WSW on Thursday. M6 buoy gusts to 94 km/hr at 11z then slight decrease for 12z, satellite imagery appears to have strongest frontal zone approaching west coast around 3-5 p.m. ... could be some squally showers with that.

Interesting and informative... Already wild and loud but the place is not shaking yet. ( That is my criterion!) I knew the wind direction as the stove fire has been very reluctant to light.

Storm 10 · 10-03-2021 2:16pm

Very windy in Galway in the past hour my weather station hitting 60 mph in gusts

igCorcaigh · 10-03-2021 2:19pm

There's the upgrade to Orange for Cork and Kerry.

Xenji · 10-03-2021 2:20pm

Status Orange - Wind warning for Cork, Kerry
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Southwest to west winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with damaging gusts to 120km/h for a time early tonight and some wave overtopping.

Valid: 20:00 Wednesday 10/03/2021 to 00:00 Thursday 11/03/2021

Issued: 20:00 Wednesday 10/03/2021

Status: Yellow
Strong to gale force southwesterly winds, veering westerly will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h and a risk of some wave overtopping in coastal areas.
Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Munster, Connacht
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Strong to gale force southwesterly winds, veering westerly will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h and a risk of some wave overtopping in coastal areas.

Valid: 13:11 Wednesday 10/03/2021 to 07:00 Thursday 11/03/2021

Issued: 13:11 Wednesday 10/03/2021

corsav6 · 10-03-2021 2:21pm

Upgrade to orange now for Cork and Kerry.

Fairly strong gusts here now outside Newport, Mayo.

thomil · 10-03-2021 2:22pm

Warning upgraded to Orange for tonight between 8 PM and midnight, Cork and Kerry covered by that warning as igCorcaigh stated above.

aisling86 · 10-03-2021 2:24pm

Have been waiting for that update as its really kicked up a gear since 1pm in macroom.

pauldry · 10-03-2021 2:50pm

Would imagine Roches Point, Valentia and Sherkin will see some high gusts tipping the 115 to 120 mark around 8 to midnight

Graces7 · 10-03-2021 3:09pm

Welcome to Orange . ! Being coastal out here... Very wild now

corsav6 · 10-03-2021 3:49pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Welcome to Orange . ! Being coastal out here... Very wild now

Certainly in the higher end yellow here outside Newport with some very strong gusts.

Xenji · 10-03-2021 4:01pm

corsav6 wrote: »

Certainly in the higher end yellow here outside Newport with some very strong gusts.

Wild in Castlebar now as well.

SleetAndSnow · 10-03-2021 4:06pm

Winds really starting to pick up in Cork City, just had a gust of 41kts.

jackrussel · 10-03-2021 4:06pm

Has this been named yet or are they still resisting?

SleetAndSnow · 10-03-2021 4:07pm

jackrussel wrote: »

Has this been named yet or are they still resisting?

For some reason, it is still unnamed

Storm 10 · 10-03-2021 4:24pm

Fairly sharp drop off in the wind in Galway at present perhaps the centre is nearby.

Graces7 · 10-03-2021 4:30pm

Xenji wrote: »

Wild in Castlebar now as well.

This place literally shakes in strong gales! I thought it would take off in Callum. And yesterday was starting to tremble. Not a quiver just now.

Needless to say no post and no ferries! Again; I rather enjoy being cut off.

Incidentally we wondered what winds the rescue helicopters could withstand ?

Snowbie · 10-03-2021 4:57pm

Blustery afternoon, some bright spells after this mornings rain.

Done an update to my original weather warnings if any is interested

https://youtu.be/KRteLK2JGyk

Dazler97 · 10-03-2021 5:02pm

My mams window in Carrick on Shannon was blown open by the wind last night just as well she got it fixed this morning. Wind starting to pick up but blue sky starting to come through

SlowBlowin · 10-03-2021 5:15pm

Some very big gusts came through about an hour ago, now steadily increasing mean winds and starting to gust again.

Are we expecting lightning with this one ?

600FT ASL - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

Beechwoodspark · 10-03-2021 5:30pm

Just out of interest how come this storm hasn’t been named?

Storm 10 · 10-03-2021 6:07pm

Coastguard helicopter Rescue 118 just landed at Galway Hospital brave guys getting some buffeting coming in, landed nose into the wind then straightened up at the last minute

Oscar Bravo · 10-03-2021 6:19pm

5pm
Mace head gusting 56 knots (104 km/h)

Dazler97 · 10-03-2021 6:20pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Just out of interest how come this storm hasn’t been named?

I was thinking the same thing yesterday although I am glad Cork and kerry are in a orange warning but that should be enough for a named storm

igCorcaigh · 10-03-2021 6:33pm

I see that that Joint Cyclone Center guy (I know!) is calling it Storm Evert.

??

Graces7 · 10-03-2021 6:35pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Coastguard helicopter Rescue 118 just landed at Galway Hospital brave guys getting some buffeting coming in, landed nose into the wind then straightened up at the last minute

Those men are heroes.

happyoutscan · 10-03-2021 6:37pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Those men are heroes.

How's it out on the island Grace?

SlowBlowin · 10-03-2021 6:41pm

Its getting very gusty up here.....

Going to the village to get some beer - its going to be a long night.

600FT ASL - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

pad199207 · 10-03-2021 6:42pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Those men are heroes.

And women ofcourse

Orange Wind Warning for Cork & Kerry - Strong Winds 10th & 11th March

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