Orange Wind Warning for Cork & Kerry - Strong Winds 10th & 11th March

M.T. Cranium

If there was a choice of LEVEL 0 Weather Watch that's what I would have chosen as the prefix ... but with broad model agreement on a strong wind event late Wednesday, it seems unlikely not to verify within 24 hours of the given timing as a level one at least, maps at the present time are consistent with Level 2 outcomes (orange level warnings). That could change, of course.

The winds are expected to be generated by an accelerating and deepening low currently in developmental stages between Bermuda and New England (closer to Bermuda). It's very little to see today, but is expected to generate a well-organized low southeast of Newfoundland by Monday. That would continue to head east-north-east under steadily increasing upper level winds being forced into a tight gradient by Tuesday by a polar vortex dropping south near Iceland.

This could all come to nothing, of course, but with just about every model showing a tight gradient of westerly winds sweeping through Ireland on Wednesday night, I thought maybe now would be as good a time as any to start discussing it, especially with the current weather pattern being such that we are slowly losing members to the philately and necromancy forums.

Meteorite58

Still evolving as one would expect. GFS has kept the most consistent track I reckon, slightly down on wind speeds. Has the system going through like a train and deepening on approach, deeper than the ECM. ECM has the system more formed offshore and possibly peaked before it reaches us and on the latest run has the track back more North and the strongest winds more in W, SW, strong and gusty for a time overland. UKMO not as deep and not as strong as earlier runs.



So I reckon in general across the models it has lost it's severest intensity that it was showing yesterday but still strong, long way off yet and time for changes either way.

Birdnuts

Any updates on this?? - looks nasty enough on the latest 72hr fax chart

Darwin

Seems to have been downgraded on the latest runs?

typhoony

Birdnuts wrote: »

Any updates on this?? - looks nasty enough on the latest 72hr fax chart

thankfully this evening's GFS has the severity down a notch on previous runs meaning a level 1 alert not a level 2.

normally we get the more severe storms generated from a steeper gradient between cold and mild over warmer atlantic waters. Also the Jet is not that strong.

Meteorite58

As was said on the Weather forecast after the news that there is a degree of uncertainty with the strength of the winds on Weds/ Thurs, usually quoted when there is a split with the models or the models are starting to veer more towards a new track of less severity and that is what the ECM and UKMO did today showing winds a lot less strong then the previous runs and as said above the GFS is now beginning to follow suit, ARPEGE was looking very strong earlier but it will probably follow suit, out shortly. ICON similar to ECM and UKMO if probably showing a bit stronger than ECM.

More time for changes.

M.T. Cranium

The developing low has just passed Bermuda to the east, winds there peaked at northeast 30G40 knots around 05z and the low is probably about 1003 mbs at this point. Tuesday night's frontal system and associated low are out ahead south of Newfoundland.

Still looks to be quite a strong wind event for Ireland, the fact that some guidance now peaks the storm earlier in mid-ocean needs to be seen in the context of whether that peak is stronger than the peak earlier expected and what the actual intensity will be upon reaching Ireland. It certainly looks like a very intense storm in the central Atlantic on charts for Tuesday night. This is a high-potential track pulling on the full energy of some of the warmest parts of the Atlantic for two more days so it bears watching.

watlantic

This morning's 48 hour OPC chart predicts this powerful storm to pass our shores at a fair distance to the NW of our shores. We'll certainly get very strong winds from it, but probably nothing extreme. A very disappointing winter so far without any memorable storms.
The jet stream predictions for Wednesday put us under very strong upper winds which should support the system. The storm itself is expected to generate waves of up to 17 metres near its centre as it reaches hurricane force in mid North Atlantic before coming closer to the Irish coast.
One to watch in hope...

aisling86

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Galway, Clare, Limerick, Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Wexford
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, southwest to west winds will reach mean wind speeds of 50 to 65 km/h, with gusts ranging 80 to 110km/h, higher in exposed locations.

Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 10/03/2021 to 06:00 Thursday 11/03/2021

Issued: 14:09 Monday 08/03/2021

Oscar Bravo

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1368953198287978497?s=19

Meteorite58

ARPEGE for a change is looking the strongest atm across the country, the WRF might be a better average of the models atm. All the models starting to group together now. ECM has been consistent the last couple of runs as has the GFS. ICON is showing the least amount of wind at this stage. Would think the ARPEGE could lighten the winds and ICON pick them up a bit in the next couple of runs. Kerry and Clare would look to get some of the strongest winds getting up to around 110 km/h on the coasts maybe some stronger gusts on coastal fringes.

Still just out of range of the Hi Res models.

M.T. Cranium

Perhaps a kind moderator could change our thread title as this looks set now, think they will likely go with orange level two for some Atlantic counties, certainly high end of yellow range for them. Our low is now south of Newfoundland and in a more rapid stage of development, having deepened by almost 10 mbs past six hours. It is bringing subtropical air along for the ride now, which could lead to quite an active occluded front developing out ahead across Ireland by 4-7 p.m. Wednesday from west to east, possible thunderstorm potential with this, and winds continue strong from the point of frontal passage to trough axis overhead midnight or so, through most of Thursday only dying down slightly all day.

Although the track is northeast at present it levels out for a while and the low is only forecast to miss Donegal by a relatively small 100 miles or so, almost the ideal track to maximize wind potential for Connacht and west Ulster. Even so some models appear to have strong winds further south too.

Not sure if this one will get a name but it will likely edge its way into the sryanbruen wind tables in the lower third to middle range. If it is named it would be Evert (Fleur and Gavin are the next two). Of course it may threaten a gust to 25 mph in Portugal and get a name from them first.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE ever so slightly down since the last run can compare below but still showing quite strong especially for Kerry, ICON up on wind speed.

EURO 4 up to 12.00 Thurs doesn't have the strongest winds penetrating that far inland but very strong around the coasts.

ECM gusting up to around 80- 90 km/h overland, up to about 110km/h in the counties under yellow warning, maybe a bit higher on the coastal fringes.

Met Eireann after the news did highlight the system and the tight gradient and to keep tuned to see if warnings would need to be amended ( not verbatim )

Xenji

Yesterday's warning has been updated.

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Becoming very windy from Wednesday afternoon through until Thursday morning. Southwest winds, veering westerly will gust 90 to 110km/h generally, higher at times on hills and coasts in the south and west with a risk of some wave overtopping.

Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 10/03/2021 to 07:00 Thursday 11/03/2021

Issued: 09:39 Tuesday 09/03/2021

Oscar Bravo

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1369312083360223238?s=19

Gaoth Laidir

One renowned Dublin-based online wealth of journalistic excellence has a very level-headed assessment of this system. I'm not going to give them the satisfaction of clicks by posting the link. The "experts" they refer to is Weather Alerts Ireland...:rolleyes:

Met Eireann Ireland weather as urgent 18-hour storm warning confirmed with 'eerie black blob' appearing

Here's how the rest of the week is looking according to Met Eireann

Met Eireann has confirmed that an urgent 18-hour storm warning has been issued as experts comment on the 'eerie black blob' appearing on our forecasts again.

A status yellow, wind warning is in place for Galway, Clare, Limerick, Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Wexford from 12pm on Wednesday until 6am on Thursday.

Met Eireann warn: "Southwest to west winds will reach mean wind speeds of 50 to 65 km/h, with gusts ranging 80 to 110km/h, higher in exposed locations."

Weather Alerts Ireland also told readers last night that "the black blob is back" and warned them to expect high waves and coastal flooding over the coming days.



They said: "High waves are expected with this system pushing towards Ireland on Wednesday into Thursday. Waves up to and possibly over 10 metres are expected based on the GFS model.

"This accompanied with strong onshore could leads to coastal flooding. Please take care and stay away from the sea if possible on Wednesday and Thursday."

Met Eireann say Tuesday will be cloudy and mostly dry at the start with persistent rain developing in the afternoon.

Temperatures of 11C will drop to 5C overnight becoming wet and windy for the early parts of the night.

It will be cloudy tomorrow morning with rain becoming heavier and windier during the day.

Heavy showers will go into the afternoon with strong and gusty winds throughout as temperatures remain around 13C.

JCX BXC

Jesus that's even worse than a tabloid weather report.

Cork2021

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

One renowned Dublin-based online wealth of journalistic excellence has a very level-headed assessment of this system. I'm not going to give them the satisfaction of clicks by posting the link. The "experts" they refer to is Weather Alerts Ireland...:rolleyes:

Based in Kerry now I believe! **** Please Share****

adocholiday

"Eerie black blob"

I presume this is the scientific term? What's the layman's term so I can understand how terrified to be?

pad199207

Cork2021 wrote: »

Based in Kerry now I believe! **** Please Share****

So I believe so too

JCX BXC

adocholiday wrote: »

I presume this is the scientific term? What's the layman's term so I can understand how terrified to be?

"BIG WIND BANG"

CirrusBusiness

adocholiday wrote: »

I presume this is the scientific term? What's the layman's term so I can understand how terrified to be?

That chart looks like a swell height and direction chart. Black signals high end of the swell height scale. You'll find a similar chart for swell and period on Magicseaweed. Better off looking at a pressure chart as it'll give you an idea of wind strength and sea conditions. Swell heights and period charts are useful if you like chasing big waves off the West coast.

"Eerie black blob" produces surprisingly few hits in google, most of which are linking to the weather report.
Someone should trademark it. :P

Graces7

It was unexpectedly wild out here today, and literally blew me off my feet when I was outside getting fuel in. mea culpa for not checking the forecast last night and fuelling then.

And very dark and oppressed. And wet.

It seems to be quietening as I type this. And tomorrow looks interesting.

West Mayo offshore

M.T. Cranium

Low analyzed at 972 mb near 48N 40W at 18z.

Alarming ship report from a position just south of the centre (and you would ask, what is a ship doing at that location? the low was on all guidance three days ago) has west-southwesterly winds 83.9 knots (39' waves) which suggests high danger of this vessel not surviving, for one thing there would be icebergs in that area of the Atlantic, the low just crossed a narrow finger of the Labrador current. That report was at 17z, there's something odd going on with the data site with no reports for the 18z or 19z hours at all. I looked back to earlier hours to get some idea of what direction this ship was trying to go, and I don't think it's an oil platform, those are further west closer to Newfoundland. Anyway, even more alarming, this ship is apparently trying to go west (after 12z) but earlier (09z) was further west than now, and has been stuck for hours, it changed position from 12z to 17z by about 0.1 deg of long and lat, and had winds even stronger at 85 knots earlier. Not sure what's going on with this one, back at 10z it was further west by almost 2 deg, so either blown backwards by these winds and waves, or turned around and is disabled.

Not saying this means much for the forecast but have never seen a ship report quite like this unless it's some bizarro naval training exercise.

Cork2021

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Low analyzed at 972 mb near 48N 40W at 18z.

Alarming ship report from a position just south of the centre (and you would ask, what is a ship doing at that location? the low was on all guidance three days ago) has west-southwesterly winds 83.9 knots (39' waves) which suggests high danger of this vessel not surviving, for one thing there would be icebergs in that area of the Atlantic, the low just crossed a narrow finger of the Labrador current. That report was at 17z, there's something odd going on with the data site with no reports for the 18z or 19z hours at all. I looked back to earlier hours to get some idea of what direction this ship was trying to go, and I don't think it's an oil platform, those are further west closer to Newfoundland. Anyway, even more alarming, this ship is apparently trying to go west (after 12z) but earlier (09z) was further west than now, and has been stuck for hours, it changed position from 12z to 17z by about 0.1 deg of long and lat, and had winds even stronger at 85 knots earlier. Not sure what's going on with this one, back at 10z it was further west by almost 2 deg, so either blown backwards by these winds and waves, or turned around and is disabled.

Not saying this means much for the forecast but have never seen a ship report quite like this unless it's some bizarro naval training exercise.

Would US or Royal Navy ships be on radar like that if found an exercise?

M.T. Cranium

Not quite sure what question above means, but doubt that this is actually a naval exercise, this must be a container ship that was very badly routed, either it is disabled or can't make headway, checking news reports at this time.

85 knots is pretty extreme even if we're talking 50 metres above sea level, waves are huge for mid-ocean. And since the ship is stationary that wind report is not a vector of ship motion against air movement either.

Tazio

Is this the ship? I don't have paid version of this app so have zero details on it. Scary image imo.

Beechwoodspark

An oppressively strong wind in north Kildare

Vapour swirling in the air.

Low clouds, no moonshine, the wind howling in the trees.

A long challenging yet survivable eventide ahead.

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Low analyzed at 972 mb near 48N 40W at 18z.

Alarming ship report from a position just south of the centre (and you would ask, what is a ship doing at that location? the low was on all guidance three days ago) has west-southwesterly winds 83.9 knots (39' waves) which suggests high danger of this vessel not surviving, for one thing there would be icebergs in that area of the Atlantic, the low just crossed a narrow finger of the Labrador current. That report was at 17z, there's something odd going on with the data site with no reports for the 18z or 19z hours at all. I looked back to earlier hours to get some idea of what direction this ship was trying to go, and I don't think it's an oil platform, those are further west closer to Newfoundland. Anyway, even more alarming, this ship is apparently trying to go west (after 12z) but earlier (09z) was further west than now, and has been stuck for hours, it changed position from 12z to 17z by about 0.1 deg of long and lat, and had winds even stronger at 85 knots earlier. Not sure what's going on with this one, back at 10z it was further west by almost 2 deg, so either blown backwards by these winds and waves, or turned around and is disabled.

Not saying this means much for the forecast but have never seen a ship report quite like this unless it's some bizarro naval training exercise.

It reminds me of something that happened in a bad storm when I was in Orkney .A small boat... emerged he had literally lost his engine as the cabin was smashed. . it could be engine failure. Is an alarm out for him?

Meteorite58

Very strong winds for a time tomorrow night in Kerry, Clare and running along southern coastal fringes . Coastal Waterford and Wexford could get clipped by very strong winds for a time in the early hours.

Wouldn't take much more to bring Kerry into Orange warning level I reckon. S Kerry looks to get strong winds gusting up around 120 km/h tomorrow night, very strong gusts on high ground coming in from the SW

Looks like high end yellow for Clare, W Galway, W Cork.

Strong winds running across the country in the early hours

Some heavy squally rain at times.

Strongest winds mostly cleared the E coast by around 08.00

Widdensushi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Low analyzed at 972 mb near 48N 40W at 18z.

Alarming ship report from a position just south of the centre (and you would ask, what is a ship doing at that location? the low was on all guidance three days ago) has west-southwesterly winds 83.9 knots (39' waves) which suggests high danger of this vessel not surviving, for one thing there would be icebergs in that area of the Atlantic, the low just crossed a narrow finger of the Labrador current. That report was at 17z, there's something odd going on with the data site with no reports for the 18z or 19z hours at all. I looked back to earlier hours to get some idea of what direction this ship was trying to go, and I don't think it's an oil platform, those are further west closer to Newfoundland. Anyway, even more alarming, this ship is apparently trying to go west (after 12z) but earlier (09z) was further west than now, and has been stuck for hours, it changed position from 12z to 17z by about 0.1 deg of long and lat, and had winds even stronger at 85 knots earlier. Not sure what's going on with this one, back at 10z it was further west by almost 2 deg, so either blown backwards by these winds and waves, or turned around and is disabled.

Not saying this means much for the forecast but have never seen a ship report quite like this unless it's some bizarro naval training exercise.

Sti mystery, 30000 tonne tanker built 2019? Maybe I have the wrong one?

M.T. Cranium

Tazio, that's it alright, something odd going on with the ship reports too, nothing for 18z or 19z (generally not just this one). The location at 17z was 45.1 N 41.4 W, two hours previous had been 45.0 N 41.4 W, at 12z 45.1 N 41.3 W (back then strong south wind), then I think it's the same vessel as one reporting at 08z from 44.9 N 42.2 W.

That would indicate eastward drift of 0.9 deg longitude 08z to 12z and 0.1 deg gained back 12z to 15z, with winds gradually veering to headwind from crosswind. Sea state would be very poor and some floating ice a possibility.

Hopefully they can ride it out and start moving again, looks to me like they were either always headed west, or were overtaken by the storm heading east and decided to turn around and seek port in Newfoundland. I can see one report that supports option (b) there from around 06z but can't be sure it's the same vessel. The reports don't go back much beyond 06z.

Nothing on our news at last hour about this, but that might not be surprising.

Widdensushi

Screenshot_20210309_203134_com.marinetraffic.android.jpg

Harry Palmr

In Waterford. Surprisingly gusty!

Reckless Abandonment

Wilder here in South dublin than any of the named storms this winter.

Chris_5339762

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

One renowned Dublin-based online wealth of journalistic excellence has a very level-headed assessment of this system. I'm not going to give them the satisfaction of clicks by posting the link. The "experts" they refer to is Weather Alerts Ireland...:rolleyes:

Something like "Met Eireann predict BIG CHANGE for rural Ireland in 48 hour Red Warning weather bomb HELL"

M.T. Cranium

I guess they turned the ship into the southwest wind to stay upright and then had to keep veering with the wind, at one point looks like they might have thought of continuing east and that either failed or proved impossible so they turned around again and headed northwest -- I would think those are 15 min intervals given the positions I know from the NDBC site. There again, another mystery is that no reports globally since this ship got into the hurricane winds.

Maybe everybody jumped out of their chairs at NDBC and knocked the servers off line.

Anyway, this other report seems to be saying they have gotten to a position with only 45 knot winds so maybe they will make it back to port. You have to wonder what the heck they were doing on their navigation yesterday to get into this situation. Being this far north, I assume the ship came from a Canadian port not U.S. because that ship route would be closer to 40 N if heading for Europe. Their briefings would be from the Canadian agency with access to maps that I saw three days ago with this storm clearly shown at its correct location. So somebody screwed up here.

Picture of the STI Mystery and other info here ...

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/STI-MYSTERY-IMO-9829461-MMSI-563063900#:~:text=The%20vessel%20STI%20MYSTERY%20%28IMO%3A%209829461%2C%20MMSI%20563063900%29,flag%20of%20Singapore.%20Track%20on%20Map%20Add%20Photo

virginmediapls

Three bins knocked over here. Logged onto met.ie expecting I missed a warning - nope.

This is absolutely the strongest storm in Lucan so far this year.

antodeco

virginmediapls wrote: »

Three bins knocked over here. Logged onto met.ie expecting I missed a warning - nope.

This is absolutely the strongest storm in Lucan so far this year.

In Lucan too and there's a definite boom off those gusts. Can hear lots of rattles and movements

M.T. Cranium

Would say looking at model guidance this will get upgraded to orange for at least the west coast if not more widely, the current wind reports are from a much weaker leading wave that is no more than half as intense in terms of gradient. Also looking at the GFS depiction, the centre really doesn't make much gain in latitude and slams the core into the west coast. Okay, it's weaker looking then than now, but there's some room to weaken before getting to orange, this would be Darwin on steroids if Ireland was about to be hit by what's out there right now.

It's an STI Mystery to me why that oil tanker was routed so as to be overtaken by this bomb cyclone, not only a bomb but 1.25 bomb units (30 mb in 24 hrs).

Recent satellite image:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

Traveling from kerry to Dublin Thursday morning at 6.

Will I miss the worst of it?

Widdensushi

Screenshot_20210309_214335_com.marinetraffic.android.jpg

Going from good hope to Amsterdam

M.T. Cranium

How about orange local red, the 18z GFS is a sort of aborted takeoff scenario with the low bouncing off the 50N runway a couple of times and wiping out into Donegal. All coastal areas will be orange to low end red given the momentum from current state, there's only slight weakening depicted to strongest gradient hitting Ireland.

While the peak will be around midnight, very strong gusts likely from mid-day to the peak due to the occluded front being whipped around in front of the system.

Bet they go orange any second now. Places like Galway Bay, coast of Clare, exposed spots around Kerry and Cork, could be local red or at least borderline orange-red verifications, also the coastal overtopping potential and wave damage given this fetch and current reported sea states ... and factor in how calm the weather was for a week before this, only a few reports of noticeable wind gusts so far ... it adds up to an unexpectedly severe event (in my current opinion, could change by morning).

M.T. Cranium

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Traveling from kerry to Dublin Thursday morning at 6.

Will I miss the worst of it?

Yes and no, you'll be in the worst of it overnight and it may be slightly improved by 0600h then assuming this is a road trip it should be blustery but main hazard or slowdown factor might be cleaning up debris from fallen trees earlier, however your previous night's storm experience might have a bearing on the outcome too.

corsav6

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

How about orange local red, the 18z GFS is a sort of aborted takeoff scenario with the low bouncing off the 50N runway a couple of times and wiping out into Donegal. All coastal areas will be orange to low end red given the momentum from current state, there's only slight weakening depicted to strongest gradient hitting Ireland.

While the peak will be around midnight, very strong gusts likely from mid-day to the peak due to the occluded front being whipped around in front of the system.

Bet they go orange any second now. Places like Galway Bay, coast of Clare, exposed spots around Kerry and Cork, could be local red or at least borderline orange-red verifications, also the coastal overtopping potential and wave damage given this fetch and current reported sea states ... and factor in how calm the weather was for a week before this, only a few reports of noticeable wind gusts so far ... it adds up to an unexpectedly severe event (in my current opinion, could change by morning).

Any idea how we'll fare out on West Mayo coast? I absolutely hate severe windstorms, and I don't fancy a red alert storm at all.

endainoz

Looks like North Clare will get a bit of a hammering tomorrow afternoon onwards. All outdoor jobs will get done earlier in the day, though with it being calving season that could change. Not much of a let up in the strong gusts untill Friday either. Hopefully things will clear out heading into next week.

Gaoth Laidir

AMSR2 measured winds at 1609Z this afternoon. Some of the vomit overboard has been reported in southern Iceland this evening...

M.T. Cranium

corsav6 wrote: »

Any idea how we'll fare out on West Mayo coast? I absolutely hate severe windstorms, and I don't fancy a red alert storm at all.

I hope it peaks in the orange range but I suspect Mace Head for example could hit 130 km/hr, Newport 115-120 for peak gusts. There's some chance this might actually be worse further south than Belmullet or Malin Head, however it's a bit early to get too precise on details, with this rapid development and fast motion we can assume it will be widespread and severe. The 18z guidance looks like an upgrade, I guess they had the input of that 85 knot ship report and a few other factors like perhaps the low has deepened a bit more explosively than models had been showing earlier.

Some chance I suppose of a fast rebound from this phase to the weakening phase but I wouldn't bet the ranch on that by the looks of the upper level winds.

r93kaey5p2izun

I'm in Lucan and I'm surprised by the strength of the gusts. There's a growl in the chimney and the bins have gone over. Nothing dangerous or anything, but worse than we've had in a good while. Unexpected!

PokeHerKing

Wild enough in Tallaght as well. Knowing how these things go tonight will probably be windier than the main event.