Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

cnocbui · 19-02-2018 8:50pm

Siberian Chill Is About to ‘Test’ Europe’s Energy Supplies
By Jesper Starn
February 19, 2018, 2:13 PM GMT Updated on February 19, 2018, 3:00 PM GMT

Temperatures set to drop on sudden stratospheric warming
Power and natural gas prices rise on heating demand outlook

A rare weather event in the Arctic that is expected to bring freezing weather back to swathes of Europe has spurred jumps in energy prices.

Prices for electricity, natural gas, coal and carbon rose across the region as colder weather is set to increase demand for heating. The chillier outlook is because of a weather event called sudden stratospheric warming, where the polar vortex of westerly wind is slowed down or reversed, pushing cold air flows from Russia west across Europe.

When the same weather event happened in 2009 there was not enough gas to cover soaring demand in both east and west Europe at the same time, said Arne Bergvik, chief analyst at power portfolio manager Scandem AB in Orebro, Sweden. Russian exporter Gazprom PJSC ended up cutting exports and accused Ukraine of taking more gas than it paid for.

“When all of Europe sees an increase of consumption at the same time, reserves, such as gas storage, is put to the test,” Bergvik said. “Weather in the coming week will test energy markets and support higher coal, power and gas prices.”

While the amount of natural gas in storage across the European Union is less than usual for the time of year, at 38 percent full it is more than 5 percentage points above the level at the same time last year, Gas Industry Europe data show.
...
Average temperatures in northwest Europe are seen dropping to minus 2.3 degrees Celsius (28 Fahrenheit) on Feb. 27 compared with a 30-year average of 3.9 Celsius, according to data compiled by Bloomberg using the ECMWF model.

“There are signs that this cold spell is likely to last well into next week with possibly even colder air from Russia moving across the U.K.,” the Met Office said Monday on its website. “Although there is a very low risk of snow this week because of the dry nature of the air, this could change the other side of the weekend.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-19/siberian-chill-arriving-in-europe-sends-energy-prices-surging

Looks like I'm going to have to get the chainsaw out and get to work. Thank goodness for wood burning stoves.

dacogawa · 19-02-2018 8:52pm

kittyn wrote: »

Just out of curiosity guys when was the 2010 event first spotted? And which model handled it best?? My memory is failing me 😂😂😂

I think it was first spotted by a walking weather chart named M.T. Cranium

Akrasia · 19-02-2018 8:54pm

Balls, my garden pond has frogspawn in it for the first time and I had been really looking forward to watching them develop with the kids. Hopefully they'll survive a sharp frost..

Kermit.de.frog · 19-02-2018 8:56pm

kittyn wrote: »

Just out of curiosity guys when was the 2010 event first spotted? And which model handled it best?? My memory is failing me 😂😂😂

If I recall correctly it was about a week and a half in advance. I'd have to dig up the thread though.

Overall i'd say the charts look impressive tonight but exercise some caution if spreading the word just for now. Give it a couple more days.

Restrain yourselves! :pac:

nacho libre · 19-02-2018 8:57pm

kittyn wrote: »

Just out of curiosity guys when was the 2010 event first spotted? And which model handled it best?? My memory is failing me 😂😂😂

It was M.T. Cranium and the UK Met Office. Both were bullish about it happening a week or two in advance. The UK Met office has been the same about this one.

Gaoth Laidir · 19-02-2018 8:58pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Never thought I'd see the day Gaoth Laidir mentioning heavy snow.

And heavy DRY snow at that, not a flake of slop in sight.

TheMilkyPirate · 19-02-2018 9:00pm

If we are still seeing these charts Wednesday night I'm fully on board. Hard not to get excited all the same ðŸ™Š

budweiser6 · 19-02-2018 9:00pm

Sweet Jesus I'm so excited I've a feeling this thread will be mental for the next few days.

Well done Kermit you never shy away from going for it! Loving the banter here this winter still not fully grasping the models but love reading posts by those who can.

Bring.It.On

wakka12 · 19-02-2018 9:01pm

Omg how amazing would a late winter beasterly be

It would make up for 8 years of disappointment for dubliners

Kristopherus · 19-02-2018 9:02pm

Akrasia wrote: »

Balls, my garden pond has frogspawn in it for the first time and I had been really looking forward to watching them develop with the kids. Hopefully they'll survive a sharp frost..

Can you put a cover over it? A tent-like structure?

gabeeg · 19-02-2018 9:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If I recall correctly it was about a week and a half in advance. I'd have to dig up the thread though.

Overall i'd say the charts look impressive tonight but exercise some caution if spreading the word just for now. Give it a couple more days.

Restrain yourselves! :pac:

Too late

kittyn · 19-02-2018 9:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If I recall correctly it was about a week and a half in advance. I'd have to dig up the thread though.

Overall i'd say the charts look impressive tonight but exercise some caution if spreading the word just for now. Give it a couple more days.

Restrain yourselves! :pac:

I’m trying to bite my tongue believe me 🙈🙈 I’ll do my best to hold out until at least Wednesday 😂😂😂😂

dacogawa · 19-02-2018 9:05pm

Having a quick look around the "10 day forecasts" just for a bit of research and the only one going for any snow at the moment is timeanddate (from Sunday evening to Wednesday), I thought yr.no would have been first on this but there you go.

Also doing small boring tasks like this help keep a person from running around in circles shouting "snow snow snow". If the charts are still the same there is plenty of time for that from Thursday evening onwards...

Colser · 19-02-2018 9:13pm

kittyn wrote: »

I’m trying to bite my tongue believe me ðŸ™ˆðŸ™ˆ I’ll do my best to hold out until at least Wednesday ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚

Too late here..I've started spreading the word already.ðŸ˜

sdanseo · 19-02-2018 9:14pm

A few basic things people can start doing at very low or zero cost:

Pack a hi vis, torch, couple of blankets, bars of chocolate, water into the car. Fill up with a strong mix of windscreen washer fluid. Check your lights / tread depths / tyre pressures too.
Find the ice scraper / de icer and keep it by the door
Root out the hat and gloves
Top up with oil / gas / other consumables
If you're in the country a cheap folding snow shovel and small bag of salt are no harm

Kermit.de.frog · 19-02-2018 9:16pm

Excitement mounting across the water.

https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/965678822568980480

Rodar08 · 19-02-2018 9:22pm

Thanks Kermit and it’s great to see you M.T. And the rest of the “big names” on here going for it too. It’s really exciting. I’ve been around since before the 2010 event and it ignited my interest in winter weather forecasting since. The banter around 2010 was great and I’ve been here through all the build ups and disappointments since. Hard going at times. I leave the actual forecasting to you guys though as I still am not up to scratch with terminology and chart graphics etc. It’s great to read though and you learn so much especially at times like these. So thank you all and enjoy the buzz this week

At the risk of getting batted over the head with a big shiney snow shovel ... what’s it like for north Donegal during this time? Or is that a question for two days time? Will there be any possibility of dry fluffy white stuff here or if it appears at all will it only be a few cms again. I’m
Not a fan of location questions but I just .. can’t .. stop.. myself ..

Nettle Soup · 19-02-2018 9:23pm

pjohnson wrote: »

I dont like frozen roads/pipes and left housebound. Dya know how bloody boring rural Galway can be :pac:

I've only just got the TV back lastnight

I am from rural Galway and I have butterflies from excitement!
Then again I am an avid hillwalker and winter climbs are my favourite.
The colder the better.

Birdnuts · 19-02-2018 9:24pm

Akrasia wrote: »

Balls, my garden pond has frogspawn in it for the first time and I had been really looking forward to watching them develop with the kids. Hopefully they'll survive a sharp frost..

Same here - I think they can survive some frost but if its a 2010 type event I do fear for them:(

Rebelbrowser · 19-02-2018 9:28pm

Would I be right in thinking Jan 1987 is the best comparator to what is forecast? Feb 1991 is the other one that comes to mind.

pad199207 · 19-02-2018 9:29pm

Met Eireann moving to the dark side.....

“Extended outlook: Some uncertainty exists, but indications suggest it will be very cold with frosty nights and there is a risk of some wintry showers, especially in eastern areas.”

squarecircles · 19-02-2018 9:35pm

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Akrasia · 19-02-2018 9:35pm

Kristopherus wrote: »

Can you put a cover over it? A tent-like structure?

They'll be ok unless its a hard freeze like 2010. I might try and scoop it out and put it into an old fish tank for a week or so if its as bad as that

Gaoth Laidir · 19-02-2018 9:37pm

An even better skew-T for Dublin for Wednesday next week as the GFS has a low sliding up from the south. Much deeper saturated cold profile all the way to 300 hPa, with a -15 °C isothermal layer from 750-600 hPa adding plenty of moisture right where it's needed in the dentritic growth zone.

Early on Thursday Cork gets pummelled as the snowshield goes inop. Massive totals possible if that were to come off. Great to see these charts turning up for Ireland. Whether they verify or not is another matter.

sdanseo · 19-02-2018 9:37pm

squarecircles wrote: »

[IMG][/img]

Possibly the saddest looking picture of him too! I do hope he has a hot water bottle and a stress ball to tide him over.

leahyl · 19-02-2018 9:37pm

This is exciting stuff folks! Hopefully it’ll come and then all be gone by the time I go to Paris in a few weeks time :-D

Danno · 19-02-2018 9:41pm

Chilly night! -8c. And the GFS usually under-estimates overnight lows here.

nacho libre · 19-02-2018 9:42pm

Rodar08 wrote: »

At the risk of getting batted over the head with a big shiney snow shovel ... what’s it like for north Donegal during this time? Or is that a question for two days time? Will there be any possibility of dry fluffy white stuff here or if it appears at all will it only be a few cms again. I’m
Not a fan of location questions but I just .. can’t .. stop.. myself ..

If the Greenland high option as currently depicted comes to fruition after the initial easterly, then it is very good news for you. Back in 2010 parts of Donegal had 20-30 cms of snow in a similar scenario. I'm not saying the same will happen this time, but you would see decent accumulations

Danno · 19-02-2018 9:44pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Early on Thursday Cork gets pummelled as the snowshield goes inop. Massive totals possible if that were to come off. Great to see these charts turning up for Ireland. Whether they verify or not is another matter.

Over a foot of snow for rural Cork!

mel.b · 19-02-2018 9:49pm

I think I must be one of the few people who isn't happy about the SSW and the cold weather it's about to bring us. I have a trip to Northern Norway and Sweden starting on Saturday and the temperatures all winter in Sweden (Abisko) have been in the -20C range. With the freezing weather are generally clear skies, perfect for Aurora hunting. Now with the SSW, the temperatures for next week are forecast to go from -17 on Thurs this week to -3 on Saturday through Tuesday. With the warmer weather comes the clouds which is not great for observing the Aurora:mad: On the positive, at least I won't freeze to bits standing around watching:pac::o

Irish Steve · 19-02-2018 9:52pm

Last time I can recall snow with temperatures that stayed below zero for a significant period of time was the late 80's, there was about 3 inches of powder snow all over the roads in central Dublin for about 4 days, and it caused traffic chaos, firstly because the snow ploughs of the time couldn't cope with it, and partly because the people trying to drive in it hadn't a clue how to do so, which meant huge numbers of people slipping and sliding all over the place using the wrong gears and techniques to try and get around.

The snow ploughs would clear a lane along a road, and the wind promptly proceeded to blow it straight back out into the cleared track again almost immediately, and because it was so powdery, it didn't pack into a sheet of ice like it normally does, so there were completely different problems when trying to get around.

IF this happens as is being threatened, it's going to be more than interesting to see how the relevant services respond to it, while it's still not graven in stone, there's no way that anyone will be able to say that they weren't warned about what is coming, there's been low level speculation about this event for several weeks, and as it comes closer and becomes more defined, the people responsible for clearing roads, and the like, should be putting the appropriate response plans into place now to ensure that the critical services needed to keep things going are in place.

It will be interesting to see when the panic buying at the supermarkets kicks off, and what other things suddenly become "critical".

If this evening is anything to go by, the Boards servers are in for a rough ride over the next couple of weeks, we will know it's getting bad when this thread is growing faster than we can read it.

Time to go and check things like heating oil levels, just in case, and make sure that the other essentials are in place.

Meteorite58 · 19-02-2018 9:54pm

Gets a lot more promising when the big models align somewhat.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/965622818187677702

Z1BHYYr.gif?1

Pangea · 19-02-2018 9:57pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

Last time I can recall snow with temperatures that stayed below zero for a significant period of time was the late 80's, there was about 3 inches of powder snow all over the roads in central Dublin for about 4 days,

Back in 2009/2010 I recall three weeks of snow cover here, snowed first then the deep freeze kept it.

snow_bunny · 19-02-2018 10:02pm

Arghhh!

I haven't posted here since the cold spell in 2010, I'm always lurking, learning(thanks to the more knowledgeable posters here) and inevitably getting prematurely excited about any hint of a deep easterly. Good to see this being upgraded and an agreement of sorts being made across all the models, even if it is early days!

I know I should calm it down but I can't help feeling excited when there's a few hundred people showing up on the weather forum and a chance I might get to live out my snow survivalist fantasies!

I'll try to hold off warning people of Snowmageddon and jinxing it. I'll try. Here's to seeing similar charts maintaining the cold on Thurs/Friday!

DOCARCH · 19-02-2018 10:04pm

I refuse to get excited until next Saturday! Bah humbug...

kittyn · 19-02-2018 10:06pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I refuse to get excited until next Saturday! Bah humbug...

I’m trying so hard not too Doc but it’s looking pretty good for us 😂😂😂

Reckless Abandonment · 19-02-2018 10:08pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I refuse to get excited until next Saturday! Bah humbug...

Haha. You're just worried if you can delete posts quick enough

We'll soon be like a bunch of kids on red bull

snow_bunny · 19-02-2018 10:12pm

leahyl wrote: »

This is exciting stuff folks! Hopefully it’ll come and then all be gone by the time I go to Paris in a few weeks time :-D

I was in Paris just before Christmas in 2010, there was a lot of snow! It was absolutely magical and made the place even more beautiful. Are you travelling for business or pleasure? There was very little disruption getting around the city and the only issues occurred when we were getting the train to CDG and flying home to Ireland, I'd advise leaving plenty of time for that if these charts materialise. Enjoy your trip!

leahyl · 19-02-2018 10:16pm

snow_bunny wrote: »

I was in Paris just before Christmas in 2010, there was a lot of snow! It was absolutely magical and made the place even more beautiful. Are you travelling for business or pleasure? There was very little disruption getting around the city and the only issues occurred when we were getting the train to CDG and flying home to Ireland, I'd advise leaving plenty of time for that if these charts materialise. Enjoy your trip!

It’s for pleasure, never been before. Did they have to close the Eiffel Tower only last week because of snow?! I’m not going till the 9th though so hopefully anything we get snow wise will have cleared by then lol

nacho libre · 19-02-2018 10:18pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

Last time I can recall snow with temperatures that stayed below zero for a significant period of time was the late 80's, there was about 3 inches of powder snow all over the roads in central Dublin for about 4 days, and it caused traffic chaos, firstly because the snow ploughs of the time couldn't cope with it, and partly because the people trying to drive in it hadn't a clue how to do so, w.

I know people who are accomplished at driving in snow might laugh at this, but for those who aren't- it might be worth reading this:

How to tackle driving in the snow

Wear comfortable and dry footwear
Accelerate gently, use low revs and change up to a higher gear as quickly as possible
Move off in second gear as this will help reduce wheel slip - some cars have a winter mode, which does the same job – so to check whether your car has this function in the vehicle’s handbook

Get your speed right and maintain safe stopping distances between you and the car in front, leaving as much as 10 times the normal recommended gap
Prepare for an uphill by leaving plenty of room in front so you can maintain a constant speed without the need for changing gear

Use a low gear for going downhill and try to avoid braking unless necessary, make sure you leave plenty of space between you and the car in front

When approaching a bend, brake before you actually start to turn the steering wheel. If your car does lose grip try not to panic; the key thing is to take your foot off the accelerator and make sure that your wheels are pointing in the direction you want to go in

If you do encounter a skid, steer gently into it - for example, if the rear of the car is sliding to the right, steer to the right. Do not take your hands off the steering wheel or stamp your foot on the brakes

When driving in heavy snow, make sure that you use your dipped headlights. Relying on daytime running lights is not enough, because they don’t always put lights on the back of your car.

If visibility drops below a 100m, put your fog lights on. But remember to turn them off when the visibility improves.

If the road has not been gritted, be wary of driving in the wheeltracks or other vehicles as compressed snow is likely to be more icy than fresh snow

Controls such as the brakes, as well as the steering, accelerator and even gear changing should be operated smoothly and slowly

Sunglasses can help to reduce the glare of low winter sun on the snow
Keep your speed down and allow more time to stop and steer

Finally, it’s important to think about the environment that you’re driving in, especially microclimates that might appear on the road. These are areas that perhaps the sun hasn’t got to, which could stay icy when the rest of the road has thawed. Bridges are a good example. They’re normally the first to freeze and the last to thaw. So be aware of that when you’re driving in open spaces.

Gonzo · 19-02-2018 10:20pm

my dream for this event if it happens is 7 to 10 days of snow trains in off the Irish sea, some frontal activity delivering nationwide snow with no IOM Shadow to worry about, no mild sectors, no slop. 20cm+ on the ground for over a week.

However I would like a swift recovery to mild spring like conditions after about the 1st week of March. What i don't want is a month long 3-7C again like the past 2 months.

kittyn · 19-02-2018 10:21pm

On the other hand if your like me and drive a rear wheel drive automatic....... Just don’t drive 😂😂😂🙈

giveitholly · 19-02-2018 10:21pm

Gonzo wrote: »

my dream for this event if it happens is 7 to 10 days of snow trains in off the Irish sea, some frontal activity delivering nationwide snow with no IOM Shadow to worry about, no mild sectors, no slop. 20cm+ on the ground for over a week.

However I would like a swift recovery to mild spring like conditions after about the 1st week of March. What i don't want is a month long 3-7C again like the past 2 months.

I would take that as well,don't want a month of cold weather

gerrybhoy · 19-02-2018 10:24pm

Gonzo wrote: »

my dream for this event if it happens is 7 to 10 days of snow trains in off the Irish sea, some frontal activity delivering nationwide snow with no IOM Shadow to worry about, no mild sectors, no slop. 20cm+ on the ground for over a week.

However I would like a swift recovery to mild spring like conditions after about the 1st week of March. What i don't want is a month long 3-7C again like the past 2 months.

I want it away for the 10th so as I can fly to Glasgow for the Celtic /Huns game and sample my first beer since NYE

sryanbruen · 19-02-2018 10:24pm

giveitholly wrote: »

I would take that as well,don't want a month of cold weather

Certainly don't want a March 2013 but gimme December 2010 all you like Mother Nature

.

snow_bunny · 19-02-2018 10:28pm

leahyl wrote: »

It’s for pleasure, never been before. Did they have to close the Eiffel Tower only last week because of snow?! I’m not going till the 9th though so hopefully anything we get snow wise will have cleared by then lol

I don't remember if it was open actually, we just went and hung out beside it, we didn't bother going up, we went up to Sacre Coeur instead..I'll never forget standing in the doorway of the church, sun setting, candles everywhere, choir singing and looking out over Paris as it started to snow again, it was beautiful!

There were no real delays in the Metro and all the paths/roads were cleared very well, they seemed very well equipped to deal with the cold weather. A few stops for hot chocolate or Vin Chaud and we were happy out!

The 9th is a long way away yet, all you can do really is play it by ear and bring appropriate gear if the cold is maintained for that long.

wakka12 · 19-02-2018 10:28pm

Interesting that this might happen , today was the first day I thought felt distinctly mild and spring like

JCX BXC · 19-02-2018 10:30pm

Hints of whats to come on the weather after the 9 o'clock news.

LEIN · 19-02-2018 10:31pm

Jean Byrne playing it cooler than a fishes fart.
To be expected this far out, in fairness.

Itssoeasy · 19-02-2018 10:31pm

So lads It seems the serious operators here seem nearly giddy about the potential weather on the way.

So with that in mind and noting that the thread says from Sunday next. So will it be grand until Saturday night and then bang ?

Also can cork expect snow or will the snow shield stop it or will even the famous snow shield of cork be beaten by this ?

Thanks lads.

Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

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