Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

Bigcheeze · 09-09-2011 8:04am

tfitzgerald wrote: »

These graphs about the weather could be very addictive very quick

You should have seen what it was like here last December!

DOCARCH · 09-09-2011 8:26am

inabina wrote: »

ME continue to be cautious!!

3 days is a long time in meteorology!

Joe Public · 09-09-2011 8:52am

How do you pronounce Katia so I can talk about it?

Is it

cat ee ah
or
kay tee ah
or
????

M.T. Cranium · 09-09-2011 8:55am

I've been hearing "cat-ee-ya" on our media today.

Just go with whirling vortex of doom. :eek:

leahyl · 09-09-2011 8:56am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I've been hearing "cat-ee-ya" on our media today.

Just go with whirling vortex of doom. :eek:

Love it!:D

Pangea · 09-09-2011 9:13am

Ok on the latest advisory from NHC it shows the yellow area covering the W and N-W coast.
Just to clarify does this mean stronger winds than the green area? I know it was said the eye won't be as windy so it has me confused.

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 9:17am

Pangea wrote: »

Ok on the latest advisory from NHC it shows the yellow area covering the W and N-W coast.
Just to clarify does this mean stronger winds than the green area? I know it was said the eye won't be as windy so it has me confused.
[/IMG]

Look at the bar at the bottom. From green to purple indicates the probablity of sustained tropical storm force winds.

irish1967 · 09-09-2011 9:26am

I would imagine if the eye was superimposed on that chart Pangea it wouldn't be at the center of the colored area. As the chart indicates only wind speed wouldn't the eye be north of center ?

Pangea · 09-09-2011 9:28am

irish1967 wrote: »

I would imagine if the eye was superimposed on that chart Pangea it wouldn't be at the center of the colored area. As the chart indicates only wind speed wouldn't the eye be north of center ?

Thanks Irish, naturally I thought the eye would be in the centre orange colour but that would be contradictory to what they were saying about the eye being less windy.

200motels · 09-09-2011 9:38am

This from the Met Office, it will be a major storm.

ninebeanrows · 09-09-2011 9:48am

Well morning models have move the centre abit to the northwest which may be down to a more intense storm forecast.

Current imagery of Katia on IR would suggest it has intensified and it appears to be developing a decent eye.

Will be interesting to see what it looks like on the visible satellite in a few hours.

Whatever the case, it is magnificent to think that a storm which was a tropical hurricane will smash into the region just 24-36 hours after losing that status.

I await 6z and the visible satellite presentation of Katia with great interest.

Pangea · 09-09-2011 9:55am

http://www.highlandradio.com/2011/09/09/hurricane-katia-likley-bring-storm-force-winds-donegal/

irish1967 · 09-09-2011 9:58am

Been holding off but I think it's time to go get the food supplies in, the batteries, candles, put garden furniture away and take a few 'before' photos of the garden and the 100 year old chestnut tree outside my front door.

One thing that worries me most is that I work in a building on the quay here. 20 feet from waters edge and with a large basement area below the waterline. Given the current charts how high would any storm surge be. Don't wanna tell owners something and then look like an eejit if water levels are normal. High tide at 6.30am Monday morning. With full moon it would be a high high tide even without Ms Katia on the prowl.

Pangea · 09-09-2011 10:07am

I was browsing over on Net Weather and one poster said that Northern Ireland looks like it will be hit the hardest.
Since the storm is heading for Scotland, will the storm be less intense once it reaches there?

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 10:12am

I could be wrong, but I really don't think this event will be as severe as the 'Carmen' storm from last year. Still time for the models to change and bring it closer to Ireland but I think it will pass too far to our north for us to feel any real severe winds apart from exposed northwest and northern coastal regions that get gales most years anyway.

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 10:13am

Pangea wrote: »

I was browsing over on Net Weather and one poster said that Northern Ireland looks like it will be hit the hardest.
Since the storm is heading for Scotland, will the storm be less intense once it reaches there?

It's not like a hurricane that has strong winds in the eyewall, with a storm like this the strong winds are south of the center.

Aiel · 09-09-2011 10:19am

I'll be on Salthill Promenade Monday morning with my camera hoping to see decent wave action.Im not stupid so wont be taking too many risks to get "the shot":).

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 10:21am

National Hurricane Center latest track has shifted ex-Katia a bit closer to us.

Previous track :

Latest track :

Let's see what the 06Z GFS has.

force eleven · 09-09-2011 10:33am

NOAA Hurricane discussion latest update

'THE HURICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 21
KNOTS. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES....IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE. '

I lol'd at the last 2 lines. Ex Katia is going to continue past 0 Longitude...

munsterlegend · 09-09-2011 10:34am

maquiladora wrote: »

I could be wrong, but I really don't think this event will be as severe as the 'Carmen' storm from last year. Still time for the models to change and bring it closer to Ireland but I think it will pass too far to our north for us to feel any real severe winds apart from exposed northwest and northern coastal regions that get gales most years anyway.

MT seems to think it could have a major impact on its current path which i know can change. obviously there is no guarantee - even in america last week with irene the exact track was subject to change. I have my doubts down where i am that it will have any major impact but coastal areas given the timing may have difficulties.

Joe Public · 09-09-2011 10:35am

Aiel wrote: »

I'll be on Salthill Promenade Monday morning with my camera hoping to see decent wave action.Im not stupid so wont be taking too many risks to get "the shot":).

Put a tie on the camera just in case you get washed out:)

ninebeanrows · 09-09-2011 10:49am

6z has a more intense ex-cane at 36hrs but this might mean it will curve away further to the north. We shall see.

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 10:52am

Out to 42 hours on the 06Z, the storm looks stronger but further north.

Pangea · 09-09-2011 10:58am

Latest from NHC

ninebeanrows · 09-09-2011 10:58am

At this stage the storm is now less deep than the 0z! Lets see how it interacts with the jet in the next few frames.

ninebeanrows · 09-09-2011 11:01am

Storm a bit further west and north here now.

Storm around 100 miles further WNW on this run. Saving much of Ireland.

- 6z really interacts ex-Katia with the jetstreak but fortunately or unfortunately it is out to our NW.

Storm winds for Donegal bay.

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 11:02am

Further north and west at 60 hours.

gbee · 09-09-2011 11:04am

Only a 30% chance now or at the time of the last update.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024915.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

M.T. Cranium · 09-09-2011 11:27am

I don't regard that 06z run as being anything more than a very slight wrinkle as regards the potential for this storm ... trying to assess the storm from NHC guidance is really very approximate because we're dealing with a storm already well into transition so as the NHC always says, don't focus on the track, focus on the cone and what's happening in the cone. The right side of the cone becomes more like the centre of the cone during tropical storm life.

Also, the 06z run backs off slightly on the time aspect which could be pointing to an initialization error since the NHC at 09z still had the storm further ahead. I don't place as much faith in 06 and 18 global runs (only the GFS really has them, some others have regional 48h updates), and we need to compare run to run (00z to 00z) to diagnose real trends.

There are some other factors that have come to my attention since 09z. For one thing, there's a big pool of 27-30 C water around 45N 30W that is sitting in the path of the storm that may delay extratropical transition. It may also give the storm a jolt of energy around Sunday 00z. Also the storm has rapidly gone "annular" on satellite imagery. This may allow it to conserve more energy crossing relatively cool waters near Newfoundland.

I hope this storm does manage to avoid doing serious damage in Ireland, not rooting for it at all, but I have to say with the 120 knot jet stream and the rapid occlusion in the approach, my instincts say "intense storm" and until I see those factors declining on models, I am reluctant to downgrade.

Taking a 5-7 hour break now so will join in again around 12z model run time.

cherryghost · 09-09-2011 11:36am

Aye yesterday's 06Z was also in a similar position before readjusting southeastwards. NOAA's update should be in the next 3 hours so lets see what they say.

Still looks like its going strong anyway :P

mojopolo · 09-09-2011 11:59am

UK met office has issued a severe weather warning for Monday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

Hooter23 · 09-09-2011 12:01pm

Its on local radio already Hurricane to hit galway

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 12:04pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Its on local radio already Hurricane to hit galway

So it begins...

Hooter23 · 09-09-2011 12:06pm

maquiladora wrote: »

So it begins...

I Know lol:pac:

Pangea · 09-09-2011 12:08pm

In fairness they are not far wrong, sure Hurricane Irene wasnt a hurricane when it hit New York but most people called it one, lets have our moment in the spotlight :pac:

Iancar29 · 09-09-2011 12:25pm

maquiladora wrote: »

So it begins...

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

munsterlegend · 09-09-2011 12:36pm

Pangea wrote: »

In fairness they are not far wrong, sure Hurricane Irene wasnt a hurricane when it hit New York but most people called it one, lets have our moment in the spotlight :pac:

yes and even the resident experts are stating this could be a bad one. however the media rarely put in the proviso that it may not happen in a headline - no money to be made from that kind of headline.

rhonin · 09-09-2011 12:51pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

Now if it was going to hit Dublin you could have collected that tenner much earlier in the week

(joking!)

gbee · 09-09-2011 12:54pm

€25 each and discount for volume sales ...

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 12:55pm

06Z GFS ensembles (central Ireland) :

Interesting that the operational run (thick black line) had a higher pressure than the mean (thick red) with plenty of ensembles showing a lower pressure than the operational indicating a stronger system/closer track.

Iancar29 · 09-09-2011 12:55pm

rhonin wrote: »

Iancar29 wrote: »

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

Now if it was going to hit Dublin you could have collected that tenner much earlier in the week

(joking!)

Hahaha........ TRUE!!

munsterlegend · 09-09-2011 1:04pm

gbee wrote: »

€25 each and discount for volume sales ...

tempting fate gbee...

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 1:12pm

Latest HIRLAM has the storm further south than the GFS at 60 hours.

delw · 09-09-2011 1:15pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

so did i,was only a matter of time

gbee · 09-09-2011 1:18pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

tempting fate gbee...

Not really as many will remember the Hurricane Tomas last year and the little squall that hit us prior to its arrival and while Hurricane Tomas was 3,000 miles away in Bermuda ~ an enterprising gent was in fact selling Tee Shirts with I survived Hurricane Tomas.

It's about the news hype an all media got it so wrong last year, many of us emailed the various news agencies telling them the hurricane was a week out yet ~ some changed their headlines but others did not and worse repeated it on the 'Sundays' ~ which sadly, a lot of the public believed and the storm they though was a hurricane was not and never had been a threat.

nacho libre · 09-09-2011 1:20pm

585320main1_4%20ATLANTICSTORMS-GOES-LARGE-670.jpg

Pity the low centre couldn't track that bit closer to the North West of Ireland.
As it stands, based on that guidance, Erris Head, Achill Island, and Donegal Bay seem the places to be on Monday afternoon, if you like stormy weather!

maquiladora · 09-09-2011 1:27pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Pity the low centre couldn't track that bit closer to the North West of Ireland.

Nacho have a look at what I posted above about the ensembles. The 06Z GFS had a higher pressure than the mean, there is a good chance the operational has the center too far north/too weak.

Min · 09-09-2011 1:47pm

On the BBC news weather, they said very strong, damaging and destructive winds for Monday.

Over a map of Britain and Ireland they had a shaded section, they didn't include the west of Ireland (but we know it is included) but basically all Ireland, Scotland, Wales, nothern and south western England are in the danger areas.
They spent some time on that part of the forecast considering how far out it is in general weather terms.

Pangea · 09-09-2011 1:57pm

Seen Michale fishs forecast video, wasn't impressed really.

leahyl · 09-09-2011 2:05pm

Pangea wrote: »

Seen Michale fishs forecast video, wasn't impressed really.

HHHMMM well this IS Michael Fish we're talking about - wouldn't have too much meas on him....:D

Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

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