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Unusual September chill possible?

  • 11-09-2010 8:06pm
    #1
    carlmwan
    Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭


    ok i saw a post on a site that the uk is looking like it will get a unusually early cold spell during the second half of September..do yous think we will get a bit of it? here is tha link http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/


«13

Comments

  • #2
    opinion guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Yeah would't surpirse me in the least


  • #3
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Funny that, I've just been looking at the GFS and it does have a hint of a cold Arctic outbreak. It all starts this week when a cold pool currently west of Greenland enters the Atlantic and moves eastwards, bringing rain and strong winds Monday night/Tuesday, and setting itself up as a stationary vortex before moving east slightly, allowing the chance of a northerly outbreak on its western flank next weekend.

    What was in the back of my mind, and the actual reason I was looking, was that Ken Ring did mention months ago a "chance of snow in some parts around the 3rd week of September"......so could he be onto something??!! I can't see there being snow, but it could well be a chilly end to the month.


  • #4
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    gens-0-1-78.png?12


    bring back owenc,imagine the rant we'd got over this,snow drifts etc.. :D


  • #5
    jambofc
    Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    doesn't really look like being anywhere near cold enough for snow but i do stand to be corrected by more knowledgeable people on the forum.


  • #6
    skipz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 671 ✭✭✭skipz


    By the looks of the chart id say the scottish highlands may be snowed on:)


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  • #7
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    skipz wrote: »
    By the looks of the chart id say the scottish highlands may be snowed on:)

    Maybe! but at the same time, it does not look like anything out of the ordinary for early autumn. September can, and normally does, bring the first real chill of the season.

    October and November though are the real autumn month's in my opinion. That is when the Atlantic really starts to shape itself up!

    Hopefully it will this year. :)


  • #8
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Maybe! but at the same time, it does not look like anything out of the ordinary for early autumn. September can, and normally does, bring the first real chill of the season.

    October and November though are the real autumn month's in my opinion. That is when the Atlantic really starts to shape itself up!

    Hopefully it will this year. :)

    Its been too long since I experienced a good windstorm! That reminds me DE, I think you mentioned on another thread you had a book on the night of the big wind. Did you get that in a local bookshop or online somewhere?


  • #9
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Su Campu wrote: »
    What was in the back of my mind, and the actual reason I was looking, was that Ken Ring did mention months ago a "chance of snow in some parts around the 3rd week of September"......so could he be onto something??!! I can't see there being snow, but it could well be a chilly end to the month.


    He actually siad precipitation and sub zero temperatures which MAY lead to snow/sleet/hail/cold rain . . .


  • #10
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    thetonynator wrote: »
    He actually siad precipitation and sub zero temperatures which MAY lead to snow/sleet/hail/cold rain . . .

    Well the precipitation bit goes without saying:rolleyes: but the sub-zero bit?

    I can't see it happening, it is still only FI afterall. Some sub-zero nighttime radiational minima are very possible, but I can't see how we can get a cold enough airmass for snow to us yet, where would it come from with sea temperatures at their warmest now?


  • #11
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Well the precipitation bit goes without saying:rolleyes: but the sub-zero bit?

    I can't see it happening, it is still only FI afterall. Some sub-zero nighttime radiational minima are very possible, but I can't see how we can get a cold enough airmass for snow to us yet, where would it come from with sea temperatures at their warmest now?


    Maybe if some cold air came from scandanavia over a cold england and wales??? but ken said very localised in the north midlands . . .


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  • #12
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Northerly plunges are a waste at this time of year - I tend to beleive we have a certain quota every year so its best to keep them for when they'l deleiver the goods ie. Dec-Feb:)


  • #13
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I've been looking at the ME station extremes here and some of the inland stations have recorded September absolute minima of -1 to -2°C, most probably due to nightime frosts. Even to get an arctic outbreak from Scandinavia, with the North Sea temperatures around 15°C, it just won't work. Hell, it's hard enough to get it to work in January!!! :D


  • #14
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Its been too long since I experienced a good windstorm! That reminds me DE, I think you mentioned on another thread you had a book on the night of the big wind. Did you get that in a local bookshop or online somewhere?

    Hey Maq,

    It was Peter Carr's The Night of the Big Wind that I referred too. Yep, I got it years ago in a musty old second hand book shop in Galway. I have it read to death.

    The narration is very much in informal documentary style. It deals with the story of the people and their personal and collective experiences of the storm. It also gives a brief meteorological analysis with some old and revised synoptic details. One of the best features of the book is that it gives an account of the storm, and its aftermath, including newpaper reports, from nearly every major town in the country!

    If you have trouble getting your hands on a copy just give me a shout and I can send it too you no bother. :)


    Birdnuts!

    I totally agree. All this talk of snow and will it/won't it in September is head-wrecking!

    Autumn is here, let us celebrate its glorious racing dark skies, its howling gales, its driving rain and its shortening days. To hell with snow! (for another few months anyway :p)


  • #15
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Hey Maq,

    It was Peter Carr's The Night of the Big Wind that I referred too. Yep, I got it years ago in a musty old second hand book shop in Galway. I have it read to death.

    The narration is very much in informal documentary style. It deals with the story of the people and their personal and collective experiences of the storm. It also gives a brief meteorological analysis with some old and revised synoptic details. One of the best features of the book is that it gives an account of the storm, and its aftermath, including newpaper reports, from nearly every major town in the country!

    If you have trouble getting your hands on a copy just give me a shout and I can send it too you no bother. :)

    Thanks for the info DE, the book sounds great. Thanks a mil for the offer but youre grand, I'll have a hunt on ebay and in the old bookshops for it! :)

    Btw, if you like old weather related books I really recommend Eric Sloane's Weather Almanac (or anything by Eric Sloane). The books were written in the 50s I think but reprinted recently. Sort of part weather lore, part social history, part educational with great illustrations by Sloane.

    http://www.amazon.com/Eric-Sloanes-Weather-Almanac-Sloane/dp/0896586804


  • #16
    opinion guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    To hell with snow!

    Man snow wouldn't be any good in hell - it would evaporate before it got anywhere near the ground! You'd get no skiing at all...which would make it truly hell :(


  • #17
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Well, whatever about unusual, there is certainly a more seasonal outlook for the coming week. Latest model prognosis for midday Wednesday:

    127343.png

    The same model has the slight chance of a cool ridge building in thereafter.


  • #18
    up for anything
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Thanks for the info DE, the book sounds great. Thanks a mil for the offer but youre grand, I'll have a hunt on ebay and in the old bookshops for it! :)

    Btw, if you like old weather related books I really recommend Eric Sloane's Weather Almanac (or anything by Eric Sloane). The books were written in the 50s I think but reprinted recently. Sort of part weather lore, part social history, part educational with great illustrations by Sloane.

    http://www.amazon.com/Eric-Sloanes-Weather-Almanac-Sloane/dp/0896586804

    My all time favourite novel. The Big Wind by Beatrice Coogan.
    The Big Wind is a classic novel spanning an entire generation of Irish history, set in the tumultuous times of the 19th century. From the infamous Big Wind of 1839, the greatest storm ever recorded in Ireland, to the Great Famine and the land war between the starving Irish peasants and the Anglo-Saxon landlords, Beatrice Coogan brings alive the loves, cruelties and injustices of the times. An amazing feat of skilfully woven drama, romance and fact, The Big Wind has been justly compared to Gone With the Wind.


  • #19
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭pauldry


    If the daytime maxes out at 9 or 10c which it might and the night time goes near zero which too is possible and then there is a stream of showers from the northern regions pouring down over us with hail mixed in, then a heavy haily sleety shower on a mountain top could make it appear white to a casual observer.

    Hell we had a white christmas one year but on closer investigation it was just loads of hailstones on the ground.

    But a distinct chill is possible for week3 but it will be messy :mad:


  • #20
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Well the precipitation bit goes without saying:rolleyes: but the sub-zero bit?

    I can't see it happening, it is still only FI afterall. Some sub-zero nighttime radiational minima are very possible, but I can't see how we can get a cold enough airmass for snow to us yet, where would it come from with sea temperatures at their warmest now?

    Ah you always play down the chances of snow anyway:p
    Although you may be right this time;)


  • #21
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS at T156.

    Sub-zero in the midlands :

    10ftm60.png

    classic_sub_zero.gif

    :pac:


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  • #22
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I don't know where you're getting your information from, this is the forecast for midday next Sunday! :pac:

    127399.png


  • #23
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    526.jpg

    i'm confident this is the scene i'll awake up to the week after next:pac:


  • #24
    dexter647
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    nacho libre wrote: »
    526.jpg

    i'm confident this is the scene i'll awake up to the week after next:pac:

    ah lads are we not getting a bit carried away here... a bit early for this sort of talk... i'll believe it when i see it....??


  • #25
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    dexter647 wrote: »
    ah lads are we not getting a bit carried away here... a bit early for this sort of talk... i'll believe it when i see it....??
    down-with-this-sort-of-thing1.jpg

    :D:D


  • #26
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Hey Maq, It was Peter Carr's The Night of the Big Wind that I referred too. )

    Interesting how they described the Aurora Borealis and how they were afraid its retun in the night sky a few day later would herald in another monster storm.


  • #27
    desolate sun
    Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭desolate sun


    pauldry wrote: »
    Hell we had a white christmas one year but on closer investigation it was just loads of hailstones on the ground.


    Hate to rub it in, but last Christmas where I was, we got a proper white Christmas, with white powdery snow - the kind you see on TV - AND there were a few snow showers that day too. Absolutely magical.

    Looks like my white Christmas will be coming early this year :D;)


  • #28
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    desolate sun wrote: »
    Hate to rub it in, but last Christmas where I was, we got a proper white Christmas, with white powdery snow - the kind you see on TV - AND there were a few snow showers that day too. Absolutely magical.

    Looks like my white Christmas will be coming early this year :D;)

    Where were you last Christmas ? Dublin?

    Cos I was in Dublin last Christmas (Dec 25th - 6th January) and we had proper white powdery snow, very harsh frost, sub zero daytime temps and a low of about -12oc!! :)

    Derek


  • #29
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    derekon wrote: »
    Where were you last Christmas ? Dublin?

    Cos I was in Dublin last Christmas (Dec 25th - 6th January) and we had proper white powdery snow, very harsh frost, sub zero daytime temps and a low of about -12oc!! :)

    Derek
    Have you got a photo dated 25th of decemeber to back up your white christmas ?
    That day the snow was chiefly in Donegal with none forecast for the east.
    A real white christmas , it just started to snow as I was eating christmas dinner. It was beautiful.


  • #30
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Pangea wrote: »
    Have you got a photo dated 25th of decemeber to back up your white christmas ?
    That day the snow was chiefly in Donegal with none forecast for the east.
    A real white christmas , it just started to snow as I was eating christmas dinner. It was beautiful.


    No, I did not say it snowed on Christmas DAY! It snowed during the Christmas period - hence the dateline Dec 25th - 6th January !

    Last White Christmas in Dublin was in 2004

    Derekon


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  • #31
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    derekon wrote: »

    Cos I was in Dublin last Christmas (Dec 25th - 6th January) and we had proper white powdery snow

    Derek
    derekon wrote: »
    No, I did not say it snowed on Christmas DAY! It snowed during the Christmas period - hence the dateline Dec 25th - 6th January !

    Last White Christmas in Dublin was in 2004

    Derekon
    I thought as much, but you did mention include the date 25th along with proper white powdery snow so that would imply you had snow on the 25th for people that wouldnt know better, ya dont fool me lol ;),anyways thanks for clearing that up.


  • #32
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    Have you got a photo dated 25th of decemeber to back up your white christmas ?
    That day the snow was chiefly in Donegal with none forecast for the east.
    A real white christmas , it just started to snow as I was eating christmas dinner. It was beautiful.

    Can't remember correctly but wasn't that the day of the 'ice rain' event across the country? although with you on high ground in the NW you would have been luckier than most of us.


    12z HIRLAM analysis for that day:
    127490.gif

    18z:
    127492.gif

    warm sector approaching over very cold surface temps. -8.0c or lower recorded during early Christmas morning across a large part of the country.


  • #33
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Can't remember correctly but wasn't that the day of the 'ice rain' event across the country? although with you on high ground in the NW you would have been luckier than most of us.



    warm sector approaching over very cold surface temps. -8.0c or lower recorded during early Christmas morning across a large part of the country.

    Dont recall ice rain , I think you may be thinking of another day, but I remember the forecast was for precipation moving up the west coast and as it hit cold air it turned to snow (mainly in donegal)
    I have the orignal forecasts on my computer.
    The snow was widespread in my area.


  • #34
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    Dont recall ice rain , I think you may be thinking of another day, but I remember the forecast was for precipation moving up the west coast and as it hit cold air it turned to snow (mainly in donegal)
    I have the orignal forecasts on my computer.
    The snow was widespread in my area.

    Ah yea, probably was a different day, but it was around Christmas I remember. I always keep meaning to keep a diary of actual conditions but never seem to get around to it. Would be handy for remembering the day of these events correctly!


  • #35
    Lumi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Can't remember correctly but wasn't that the day of the 'ice rain' event across the country?

    Yes, it started to rain just after 10.30AM on Christmas morning and every surface was coated with a layer of ice within minutes. It was amazing.


  • #36
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Ah yea, probably was a different day, but it was around Christmas I remember. I always keep meaning to keep a diary of actual conditions but never seem to get around to it. Would be handy for remembering the day of these events correctly!
    I do remember ice rain indeed ,cant remember exact date though.
    What a sight for christmas morning temperture wise, Il be lucky to see anything like that again.

    Heres screenshots from the christmas eve forecast for christmas day last for those who cant remember what happened.
    2zow75s.png

    ws92t1.png


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  • #37
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Ah yea, probably was a different day, but it was around Christmas I remember. I always keep meaning to keep a diary of actual conditions but never seem to get around to it. Would be handy for remembering the day of these events correctly!

    No you are correct, remember going to mass Christmas morning, -3 and it started raining. Place was just an ice rink when we came out of mass.


  • #38
    opinion guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    There was snow on Christmas day I know this because the car got stuck in it that day :D


  • #39
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭pauldry


    We had a glass Christmas last year. There was some bits of snow from December 18th lying around for 4 weeks but then there was rain that fell on subzero roads and turned to glass. Couldnt leave the house. It was minus 10 to boot but only minus 5 here in Sligo


  • #40
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Oh right ,no ice rain at me that day anyways just snow :)
    I recall ice rain on another date aswell though.


  • #41
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    We had about an inch of ice on the road for Christmas, then it started to sleet and it froze to the ground and then it changed to rain and it froze to the ground.
    As already said it was a glass Christmas, didn't even get to Christmas mass for the first time, didn't fancy killing myself or the family...


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  • #42
    opinion guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Pangea wrote: »
    2zow75s.png

    RTE need to invest in a spell checker......or at least hire in some student that did honours English...


  • #43
    lord lucan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    opinion guy wrote: »
    RTE need to invest in a spell checker......or at least hire in some student that did honours English...

    Ah,it was xmas eve,the weather staff were in a rush to get home! Easy to forget an E in the circumstances.:p


  • #44
    Hooter23
    Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    It's going to be frezing people someone started on the whiskey a bit early:D


  • #45
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    I do remember ice rain indeed ,cant remember exact date though.
    What a sight for christmas morning temperture wise, Il be lucky to see anything like that again.

    Heres screenshots from the christmas eve forecast for christmas day last for those who cant remember what happened.
    2zow75s.png

    ws92t1.png

    We most likely all will be lucky to see something similar again, senor Pangea. It's just too bad that theory about the north atlantic drift being turned off has no basis in fact.


  • #46
    dexter647
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    it was freezing rain xmas day with ice everywhere... i was so confused at the time seen as it was minus 3 (i'm no meteorioligist):confused:
    ... but after some research discovered the reason why... a rare weather event in ireland i reckon


  • #47
    arctictree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭arctictree


    I remember XMas day last year very well. Temp stayed at circa 0.6c all day and it lashed rain. Roads were treacherous. A big dissapointment considering we had some major snow events later in the winter with temps at +1c.

    More info : http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055778997&page=6


  • #48
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    arctictree wrote: »
    I remember XMas day last year very well.
    More info : http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055778997&page=6
    Thanks for that
    just seen my post there
    Pangea wrote: »
    White out here in south donegal aswell! What a perfect day .
    Roads are bad!
    Has anyone seen rtes website , it says -9 for tonight ? that couldnt be right?
    Wheres this thaw tongue.gif
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1225/weather.html biggrin.gif

    I remember how everyone was saying the big freeze would end on christmas day with warmer weather on st.stephens day, even the weather forecasters, but it quickly changed though and stayed for another 3 weeks.


  • #49
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »

    I remember how everyone was saying the big freeze would end on christmas day with warmer weather on st.stephens day, even the weather forecasters, but it quickly changed though and stayed for another 3 weeks.

    that's not quite true senor Pangea, the Eagle said at the time there would be a temporary lull for around two days, with relatively milder weather, but he saw no indication of any realy milder weather in the foreseeable future.


  • #50
    snow ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    opinion guy wrote: »
    There was snow on Christmas day I know this because the car got stuck in it that day :D

    Same as that Opinion Guy, I had a white Christmas here in Mayo, it started about 11am.


  • #51
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Pangea wrote: »
    Thanks for that
    just seen my post there


    I remember how everyone was saying the big freeze would end on christmas day with warmer weather on st.stephens day, even the weather forecasters, but it quickly changed though and stayed for another 3 weeks.
    nacho libre wrote: »
    that's not quite true senor Pangea, the Eagle said at the time there would be a temporary lull for around two days, with relatively milder weather, but he saw no indication of any realy milder weather in the foreseeable future.


    They said there would be a thaw and there would be milder weather , but there was no thaw whatsoever up at me, infact it was as cold as ever christmas night and st.stephens day.
    It was a pleasant suprise,
    Like I said met eireann said there would be a thaw but yet the link above shows how in the middle of christmas day they quickly changed their forecast to -9 for that night ! ;)
    and the warmer weather forecasted for that 2 days didnt come.
    Pangea wrote: »
    Freezing hard now over the snow that fell today ,dangerous conditions.
    No thaw here ,what a nice suprise , i thought by tonight it would be wet and the snow and ice would be gone , far from it! biggrin.gifbiggrin.gif



    Gonzo wrote: »
    there should be a good thaw starting from 2moro (26th) and lasting till about wednesday (30th), hopefully all the roads will be clear by 2moro evening.
    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Where you getting this from?

    Gonzo wrote: »
    I was going by the RTE forecast, 6C in Dublin 2moro and Sunday, and BBC have Dublin down for 7C Monday and 8C Tuesday. that should be enough to melt most of the frost around these parts?


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