Schools closed until February? (part 3)

08-12-2020 8:11pm

Boggles wrote: »

I thought we needed the schools so hospital staff could get to work?

Anyway, what can only be described as an absolutely break neck 180, we have gone from schools are the most essential of services, under no circumstance can they close for a minute, to meh no big deal if they have to close it's not like they are making sausages or Viagra.

I am sorry but you are being irrational if you can’t see why hospital staff are ahead of school staff for the vaccine. And food production and pharma manufacturing for that matter.

You will remember schools closed in the spring and you will also know that the consequences of an outbreak in a hospital are orders of magnitude more serious than in a school.

Smacruairi · 08-12-2020 8:16pm

meeeeh wrote: »

Wtf are you on about?

This would be actually freaky stalking behaviour if you were not lying. In fact you and Boggles are clearly delighted to spread false accusations about me. I have no way to counter that except to say it doesn't reflect well on you.

I actually confused you with another poster, apologies. And to be fair, the point was not relevant in the first place, just getting dragged down in the usual mudslinging. I'll delete my post and apologise.

Boggles · 08-12-2020 8:26pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I am sorry but you are being irrational if you can’t see why hospital staff are ahead of school staff for the vaccine. And food production and pharma manufacturing for that matter.

The thread went apocalyptic when the suggestion was made that schools close a day and a half early to allow people to isolate before meeting families.

The most cited reason was people of those industries couldn't work.

It can't be both.

But it isn't my opinion, even health services have been sacrificed to keep schools opened, they close under no known circumstance.

They are at the top of the tree of being essential, but the people who keep them open are not deemed essential.

It's perfectly valid to ask the question, why?

08-12-2020 8:32pm

Boggles wrote: »

The thread went apocalyptic when the suggestion was made that schools close a day and a half early to allow people to isolate before meeting families.

The most cited reason was people of those industries couldn't work.

It can't be both.

But it isn't my opinion, even health services have been sacrificed to keep schools opened, they close under no known circumstance.

They are at the top of the tree of being essential, but the people who keep them open are not deemed essential.

It's perfectly valid to ask the question, why?

Every person vaccinated anywhere reduces the risk to those in schools relative to where it is today, however the consequences of the virus getting into other locations / groups is higher, that’s why they are first

Necro · 08-12-2020 8:32pm

Boggles wrote: »

But you clearly hate teachers.

It's pretty obvious.

meeeeh wrote: »

Wtf are you on about?

This would be actually freaky stalking behaviour if you were not lying. In fact you and Boggles are clearly delighted to spread false accusations about me. I have no way to counter that except to say it doesn't reflect well on you.

khalessi wrote: »

This from yourself who yesterday accused me of lying. Funny guy. Im still waiting for the apology.

Smacruairi wrote: »

I actually confused you with another poster, apologies. And to be fair, the point was not relevant in the first place, just getting dragged down in the usual mudslinging. I'll delete my post and apologise.

Mod:

Folks, if you cannot discuss this civilly and on topic don't post in this thread, simple.

It has gone way off topic into personalising posts so reign it in or cards and bans will follow.

Final warning

Boggles · 08-12-2020 8:38pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Every person vaccinated anywhere reduces the risk to those in schools relative to where it is today, however the consequences of the virus getting into other locations / groups is higher, that’s why they are first

Really? Whats the current positive rate in meat factories and what are the consequences of them having to close for a fortnight compared to an entire school?

MerlinSouthDub · 08-12-2020 11:15pm

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1336415805953748992

Interesting study suggesting that reopening schools in Germany coincided with reduced transmission, rather than increased transmission.

Thats me · 09-12-2020 2:05am

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1336415805953748992

Interesting study suggesting that reopening schools in Germany coincided with reduced transmission, rather than increased transmission.

100K grants per school to adapt them to pandemic can make miracles

Boggles · 09-12-2020 9:20am

Schools in England can close for Christmas a day early

Schools minister Nick Gibb told MPs that schools could schedule an inset day next Friday to allow "six clear days" before Christmas Eve.

He said this would ensure teachers and heads do not have to engage with "track and trace issues" throughout the break.

We want to make sure that they (school staff) can have a proper break over Christmas. We know they've been under huge stress.

It was never not a good idea, just got lost here in the visceral.

Stateofyou · 09-12-2020 9:30am

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1336415805953748992

Interesting study suggesting that reopening schools in Germany coincided with reduced transmission, rather than increased transmission.

I imagine it's because they are no longer mixing in less controlled environments while they're off school; when schools reopened they were in an environment that had invested the proper measures to make them as safe as possible. They also don't have one of the highest student/teacher ratios in Europe as we do here. And as Israel learned having to close schools and reduce ratios and mandate mask wearing and the introduction of hybrid remote learning classes before reopening.

09-12-2020 9:47am

Stateofyou wrote: »

I imagine it's because they are no longer mixing in less controlled environments while they're off school; when schools reopened they were in an environment that had invested the proper measures to make them as safe as possible. They also don't have one of the highest student/teacher ratios in Europe as we do here. And as Israel learned having to close schools and reduce ratios and mandate mask wearing and the introduction of hybrid remote learning classes before reopening.

And yet the data here bears out the German experience.

Boggles · 09-12-2020 9:58am

Deleted User wrote: »

And yet the data here bears out the German experience.

Well no it doesn't.

The vast vast majority of confirmed infections in children of school going age occurred after schools opened.

We also do not find any evidence that the return to school at full
capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children

The polar opposite of what the study claims in the German experience.

Stateofyou · 09-12-2020 9:59am

Deleted User wrote: »

And yet the data here bears out the German experience.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. What are you getting at?

JimmyVik · 09-12-2020 10:02am

Boggles wrote: »

The thread went apocalyptic when the suggestion was made that schools close a day and a half early to allow people to isolate before meeting families.

The most cited reason was people of those industries couldn't work.

It can't be both.

But it isn't my opinion, even health services have been sacrificed to keep schools opened, they close under no known circumstance.

They are at the top of the tree of being essential, but the people who keep them open are not deemed essential.

It's perfectly valid to ask the question, why?

Should have just moved the 2 weeks off after christmas to the 2 weeks before christmas.

meeeeh · 09-12-2020 10:11am

That German research just shows that you can't compare national studies without taking into account local factors.

MerlinSouthDub · 09-12-2020 10:11am

Stateofyou wrote: »

I imagine it's because they are no longer mixing in less controlled environments while they're off school; when schools reopened they were in an environment that had invested the proper measures to make them as safe as possible. They also don't have one of the highest student/teacher ratios in Europe as we do here. And as Israel learned having to close schools and reduce ratios and mandate mask wearing and the introduction of hybrid remote learning classes before reopening.

Interesting theories, sadly not supported by data. In reality, infection rates in Ireland are much lower than in Germany so we must have done a better job at making schools safe than they have done in Germany.

Boggles · 09-12-2020 10:22am

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Interesting theories, sadly not supported by data. In reality, infection rates in Ireland are much lower than in Germany so we must have done a better job at making schools safe than they have done in Germany.

So Germany have a higher infection rate in schools than Ireland, link?

Kind of undermines the study you linked to, doesn't it?

09-12-2020 11:09am

Boggles wrote: »

Well no it doesn't.

The vast vast majority of confirmed infections in children of school going age occurred after schools opened.

The polar opposite of what the study claims in the German experience.

We only widened the testing criteria when children returned to school. Germany have had 80% of their cases since schools returned, we have had 66% of our cases since schools returned. Germany are also in partial lockdown since November 2nd with no fall off in cases rates which are a multiple of ours. Everything is terrible in Ireland

Stateofyou · 09-12-2020 11:14am

Deleted User wrote: »

We only widened the testing criteria when children returned to school. Germany have had 80% of their cases since schools returned, we have had 66% of our cases since schools returned. Germany are also in partial lockdown since November 2nd with no fall off in cases rates which are a multiple of ours. Everything is terrible in Ireland

Can you please plainly state why you mean by this.

Our definition of what a close contact is has changed in the schools, and differs from other sectors/wider society in Ireland. Also, our testing/tracing system effectively collapsed, and it hasn't improved much in the school system since then.

09-12-2020 11:20am

People need to be conscious of self contradictory nonsense they are peddling - cases in schools in Ireland appear to be lower than they actually are because we are not testing, and schools are driving the rate here, yet cases are lower in German schools because they are managing so much better even though their overall incidence rate is 4x ours

09-12-2020 11:23am

Stateofyou wrote: »

Can you please plainly state why you mean by this.

Our definition of what a close contact is has changed in the schools, and differs from other sectors/wider society in Ireland. Also, our testing/tracing system effectively collapsed, and it hasn't improved much in the school system since then.

The criteria to test was updated on the 2nd of September. From this point a single symptom was enough to be referred for a test. Most tests and cases come from community referrals.

HerrKuehn · 09-12-2020 11:26am

Deleted User wrote: »

People need to be conscious of self contradictory nonsense they are peddling - cases in schools in Ireland appear to be lower than they actually are because we are not testing, and schools are driving the rate here, yet cases are lower in German schools because they are managing so much better even though their overall incidence rate is 4x ours

It all makes sense when you consider the conspiracy that the HSE, NPHET are colluding with the government to keep the schools open so parents can work. Its a whole cover up for some unknown reason. I have yet to hear an explanation of how they manage to just ignore cases in schools in the hope of it going away (Without an even larger and continuing outbreak in the school).

Boggles · 09-12-2020 12:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

We only widened the testing criteria when children returned to school.

So you are speculating on cases before schools opened? Thought you frowned about people making assumptions in the face of "hard data".

Deleted User wrote: »

Germany have had 80% of their cases since schools returned,

So the study is bullshít?

Deleted User wrote: »

we have had 66% of our cases since schools returned.

We had more restrictions.

Deleted User wrote: »

The criteria to test was updated on the 2nd of September. From this point a single symptom was enough to be referred for a test. Most tests and cases come from community referrals.

Link?

Boggles · 09-12-2020 12:18pm

HerrKuehn wrote: »

It all makes sense when you consider the conspiracy that the HSE, NPHET are colluding with the government to keep the schools open so parents can work.

That certainly seemed to be the opinion recently of a public health official working with schools.

JDD · 09-12-2020 12:18pm

HerrKuehn wrote: »

It all makes sense when you consider the conspiracy that the HSE, NPHET are colluding with the government to keep the schools open so parents can work. Its a whole cover up for some unknown reason. I have yet to hear an explanation of how they manage to just ignore cases in schools in the hope of it going away (Without an even larger and continuing outbreak in the school).

I don't think there's a conspiracy here or anything. But you have to accept a couple of things. 1/ Both FF and FG rely hugely on votes from middle to high income parents where both parents work, and 2/ there is a massive hit to the productivity within the economy when schools are closed.

So looking at it cynically, I can see why keeping schools open was the No.1 priority for the new government. Yes, keeping schools open is also massively beneficial to school students, especially in a scenario where the DOE would have to start from scratch in trying to put together a common home schooling programme, but that alone probably would not have been enough to make keeping schools open a priority over nearly every other sector of society.

As for the numbers, well, the numbers back up the government's decision, in my opinion. 3,154 schoolchildren testing positive, out of a population of 1 million, does not indicate to me that coronavirus is running rampant through schools. That number is since the start of the pandemic.

Now, I'll accept that very little numbers of children were tested for coronavirus up to September, for two reasons. Firstly, they were unlikely to catch it when there was very little social activity up to August. And two, if they did catch it, it was likely that it was a mild dose and they may not have been put forward for a test. So I will accept an argument that the 3,154 is probably an understated number, and that the vast majority of those infection as since September. Even still, that seems to me like a low number given the circumstances in schools.

As for the teacher number - 666 out of 65,000 teachers, that also seems a low number. I don't think that number is massively understated - I think any teacher developing symptoms would put themselves forward for a test.

By the way, those figures published in the Independent were as a result of an FOI request they made to the HSE. So it is only published in their paper.

So where does that leave us? A sneaking suspicion that there is motivation for the government to underplay the real situation in schools, in order to keep parent votes and keep the economy going. That sneaking suspicion backed up by the restrictive criteria for determining a close contact within a school. However, that cynicism doesn't extend to them out and out lying about numbers - not for me anyway. If the government made the wrong decision in reopening schools, and coronavirus is indeed rampant in most schools in the country, we should see a much higher number of teacher infections, and a higher number of entire schools closing because of a lack of teachers.

That has not happened as far as I can see. If there were teachers being hospitalised or vulnerable relatives of teachers testing positive, you can be sure that would turn up on RTE and in the newspapers. But I haven't seen anything like that so far. Looking at the big picture, it does appear to me that it was the right idea to open schools again.

Thats me · 09-12-2020 12:21pm

HerrKuehn wrote: »

It all makes sense when you consider the conspiracy that the HSE, NPHET are colluding with the government to keep the schools open so parents can work.

This is not conspiracy, it was clearly stated the objective of lockdown eas "to enable provision of child care and to ensure schools could remain open", though you right i that it was stated for which purpose

HerrKuehn wrote: »

I have yet to hear an explanation of how they manage to just ignore cases in schools in the hope of it going away (Without an even larger and continuing outbreak in the school).

No proper testing - no cases, all transmissions are happening within hoseholds.
Information about cases between teachers exists, but it was not made public - why?
etc.

meeeeh · 09-12-2020 12:22pm

Stateofyou wrote: »

Can you please plainly state why you mean by this.

Our definition of what a close contact is has changed in the schools, and differs from other sectors/wider society in Ireland. Also, our testing/tracing system effectively collapsed, and it hasn't improved much in the school system since then.

No our testing system did not collapse at all. In fact our testing numbers are quite impressive.

As I said German study can't be taken out of context. Germans traveled for summer holidays more than Irish and they have highly mobile immigrant workers from Balkans where there were significant infections in summer. I suspect beginning of school year limited foreign travel to areas with higher infections. That can be compared to Ireland who only properly started opening country two months after Germany and where the growth continued in September at about the same rate as in summer but the numbers were higher.

What German study proves though is that well off countries with decent living conditions who limit spread in society can leave schools open.

HerrKuehn · 09-12-2020 12:29pm

JDD wrote: »

I don't think there's a conspiracy here or anything. But you have to accept a couple of things. 1/ Both FF and FG rely hugely on votes from middle to high income parents where both parents work, and 2/ there is a massive hit to the productivity within the economy when schools are closed.

So looking at it cynically, I can see why keeping schools open was the No.1 priority for the new government. Yes, keeping schools open is also massively beneficial to school students, especially in a scenario where the DOE would have to start from scratch in trying to put together a common home schooling programme, but that alone probably would not have been enough to make keeping schools open a priority over nearly every other sector of society.

As for the numbers, well, the numbers back up the government's decision, in my opinion. 3,154 schoolchildren testing positive, out of a population of 1 million, does not indicate to me that coronavirus is running rampant through schools. That number is since the start of the pandemic.

Now, I'll accept that very little numbers of children were tested for coronavirus up to September, for two reasons. Firstly, they were unlikely to catch it when there was very little social activity up to August. And two, if they did catch it, it was likely that it was a mild dose and they may not have been put forward for a test. So I will accept an argument that the 3,154 is probably an understated number, and that the vast majority of those infection as since September. Even still, that seems to me like a low number given the circumstances in schools.

As for the teacher number - 666 out of 65,000 teachers, that also seems a low number. I don't think that number is massively understated - I think any teacher developing symptoms would put themselves forward for a test.

By the way, those figures published in the Independent were as a result of an FOI request they made to the HSE. So it is only published in their paper.

So where does that leave us? A sneaking suspicion that there is motivation for the government to underplay the real situation in schools, in order to keep parent votes and keep the economy going. That sneaking suspicion backed up by the restrictive criteria for determining a close contact within a school. However, that cynicism doesn't extend to them out and out lying about numbers - not for me anyway. If the government made the wrong decision in reopening schools, and coronavirus is indeed rampant in most schools in the country, we should see a much higher number of teacher infections, and a higher number of entire schools closing because of a lack of teachers.

That has not happened as far as I can see. If there were teachers being hospitalised or vulnerable relatives of teachers testing positive, you can be sure that would turn up on RTE and in the newspapers. But I haven't seen anything like that so far. Looking at the big picture, it does appear to me that it was the right idea to open schools again.

I think this is a good and reasonable summary. Every country prioritises different things and there is no textbook on how to handle a covid 19 pandemic. I think the idea that there is some kind of conspiracy is not backed up by anything at all (and to be honest is really insulting to those who are working to manage the pandemic). You are right that if there were large numbers of teachers being hospitalised it would be all over the news. The reopening of the schools has been a success, many on here were predicating Armageddon within weeks and it hasn't happened.

EDIT: "A sneaking suspicion that there is motivation for the government to underplay the real situation in schools, in order to keep parent votes and keep the economy going."
What would NPHET's motivation be for underplaying the situation in schools? Is the suggestion that they are somehow colluding with FF/FG to help with their election prospects? It seems kind of far fetched.

Stateofyou · 09-12-2020 3:18pm

meeeeh wrote: »

No our testing system did not collapse at all.
In fact our testing numbers are quite impressive.

What would be really impressive is if you actually typed that with a straight face.

Also, what I actually said, was our testing/tracing system collapsed.

the kelt · 09-12-2020 3:22pm

It begs the question if schools are so safe with 30 odd people in a room for hours every day, no masks, sitting close together, talking, laughing etc and the government are keen by whatever means to ensure that scenario is seen as being safe why then are other areas of the economy restricted?

30 unmasked people sitting in a room close together, talking socialising whilst sitting at the same table, safe, not an issue. Unless theyre adults!

Hmmm

Something isnt adding up here??

Schools closed until February? (part 3)

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