Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Thanks for the tip, you seem to be saying watch for the neighbour lads ... so far so good, mostly just archery and banjo playing, meanwhile, if you would accept a forecast from a person in advanced heat stroke, I am seeing a convergence of model solutions on 20-30 mms of rain Friday into Saturday morning, possibly thundery at times in central southern counties. As that's still 48h away, I would say check back for an update Thursday evening your time as (like you say) I can't seem to fight my way through to the keyboard here even with the relative importance of my task (like, totally).

Update from MTC at 1800h
_______________________

Not much to add to what DE has already predicted above, just some estimates of rainfall amounts. Expect 20-40 mms in almost all parts of Ireland by mid-day Saturday. There is some chance of a heavier band (40-50 mms) setting up ahead of a warm front that will push through south-central Ireland overnight towards Dublin and Meath. So counties from about Cork northeast through Tipps, Offaly and Westmeath could be in the zone more likely to see this heavier rainfall but in any case most places will get a soaking rain. I will try to update this rainfall forecast around 10-11 pm.

Too bad it had to come on a busy weekend rather than a Tuesday night but many will welcome this final stage of drought relief (let's hope it's not the first stage of moisture excess because another 15-30 mms of rain seems quite plausible for mid-week).

Still in the mountains enjoying clear skies and hot weather here, the highs are around 32 C but it does drop off to 15 C for an overnight low and the humidity levels here are very low (dew points are only 8-10 C). Went up to an elevation of 1800m yesterday, it was blazing hot even up there although the car thermometer said it was 22 C, felt really about the same as down in the valley. With no wind and the fierce insolation that you get in the alpine (reflecting off snow still lying around in places) you tend to tan and/or burn in about 30 minutes. Here's an idea of the scenery (this would be near Revelstoke BC which is a good hundred miles north of where we are staying).

UPDATE _ Saturday 6:50 pm
______________________

Moderate risk of some embedded thunder and lightning this evening mainly east of a line from about Lough Neagh to Athlone to Waterford (if that be a line, more like a curve). Slight risk of a cell within that area and especially around Laois, Carlow, Kildare and nearby parts of other counties, becoming marginally severe, risks would be wind gusts to 45 knots, hail to 2 cm, and locally torrential rain for 10-20 minutes amounting to a further 10-20 mms.

I'm not viewing this as a potent severe weather situation aside from the heavy rainfall, most of which has fallen already, but some factors are near the lower end of the conducive range.

Another hot, sunny day starting out here, although we did get 2-3 mms of rain in sporadic non-thundery showers overnight, a precursor of what looks like heavy storms brewing to the north, hoping to get some dramatic video or pix today, tomorrow and even Monday (when back home) as by then we have a very strong front plowing into this hot air mass, the disturbances today and Sunday are more like pre-frontal troughs, but on Monday we see height falls of about 300 metres across B.C. and air mass temps plunging from the mid to high 30s on the weekend to 13-17 C behind the front. Could go tornadic in Alberta when it crosses the mountains.

UPDATE _ Monday, 10 p.m.
_____________________

Just tweaking a few details about the incoming strong weather system for mid-week. Tuesday is likely to be a day of slowly increasing winds, more low-level moisture in patchy rain and drizzle on SE winds, and outbreaks of heavier showers in the southwest by evening.

Wednesday looks somewhat volatile as very cool air aloft permits any moderate sized shower to develop hail quite readily, and thunder. Expect a mostly cloudy day with brief sunny breaks, widespread areas of thundery hail-producing showers, and winds turning more southerly then southwest at moderate speeds (20-35 mph).

By Thursday, expect some longer sunny breaks between strong showers, but gusty W to NW winds developing, and possible severe local storms as the hail, wind gust and thunder potential increases despite the lower total areal coverage of these cells as compared to Wednesday.

From then on, it seems like a gradually improving weather picture after one more outbreak of showers around Saturday. There are signs of blocking returning and this certainly increases the prospects of dry weather if not necessarily warmer temperatures, but eventually I expect the warm and dry conditions of mid-late June to return for parts of late July and August. In other words, while the rainfalls in early July will definitely be substantial (giving the whole month probably twice normal rainfalls) it may not become a washout summer in general.

Meanwhile, we have some very volatile weather developing over western Canada today, tornado warnings are out near Calgary Alberta, and winds over the interior lakes of B.C. have gusted to 90 km/hr behind the front. Here on the coast it is sunny with scudding cumulus in a 30-40 mph westerly gale, whitecaps on the nearby ocean bays and straits, as well as (I am told) on the interior lakes. It's a similar upper-level setup to the storm developing for your region on Wednesday, as a strong upper level low with very cool air aloft is moving across BC today and into Alberta tomorrow. Predicting the snow level to drop to 5,000 feet in the Rockies, which is just a little higher than some of Calgary's western suburbs.

Tuesday, 13 July, 2010
__________________________

TODAY will be mostly cloudy although brighter in Ulster at times. Some rather light rain will develop across the southwest and move slowly further north and east through the afternoon. Amounts will be generally 3-5 mms. Winds will pick up a bit to ESE 10-20 mph, some mist may develop over hills, and the highs will be about 17-18 C. In some areas, what you might call a "soft day."

TONIGHT there may be an interval with dry or even clear conditions before heavier showers develop with increasing SE winds 15-30 mph, with lows only falling slightly from today's readings, to 12-13 C.

WEDNESDAY will produce heavier showers, some of them thundery with hail, and limited sunshine, in fact some areas will see low overcast and hill fog much of the day. Winds will tend to drop off to light and variable in western coastal regions but will stay moderate SE veering to SSW elsewhere as low pressure approaches the west coast. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms are possible, and highs will be about 16-18 C.

THURSDAY will become breezy or locally windy, and brighter between heavy thundery showers with hail a significant risk. Winds will become SW 20-35 mph with some higher gusts possible. After morning lows near 12 C expect a high of about 18-19 C.

FRIDAY will remain somewhat disturbed as winds veer slowly to west and then northwest, but there may be patchy areas of rain separated by brighter intervals rather than heavy showers, and temperatures will remain in about the same range, 12-18 C.

SATURDAY is currently looking reasonably dry until perhaps late afternoon in the west and overnight into Sunday elsewhere; the system approaching for Sunday is fairly weak and may not produce much more than 3-5 mms of rain on average spread out in several light intervals, so at present there is some optimism that the wet spell may not be too prolonged, as the following week continues to look fairly dry in comparison. Temperatures are likely to recover a bit too, and reach the low 20s at times.

We've had a boisterous weather day here on Monday (12th) and this continues across much of western Canada tonight with heavy thunderstorms in places, strong westerly winds and very cool temperatures. Here on the coast the high was about 20 C and it's only moderately cool in a strong westerly wind, but inland some places dropped to record low values (for daytime highs) and in central Alberta the city of Red Deer had an almost November-like day with temperatures near 7 C in the afternoon and winds gusting to 80 km/hr with heavy rain. The normal high there for July is 25 C.

Meanwhile the east coast heat wave moderated somewhat in the past few days although New York was close to 34 C today, but the month remains on pace to be the warmest July on record in some places.

UPDATE _ Tuesday 9:15 pm
_______________________

Well, we have to get through tomorrow and Thursday first, then perhaps things will start to improve (on the whole, not continuous improvement).

The dry slot that I mentioned seems to be positioned from about Sligo southeast to Wexford at present, and it's mostly a case of an absence of rain but some drizzle and mist still trapped under the cloud deck. Heavier rain is developing in bursts to the west of Galway and Clare offshore and spreading into parts of Kerry and western Limerick and Cork this evening. Also a burst of heavier rain has moved north through parts of Carlow and Kildare. This seems to be losing intensity as it reaches Meath/Westmeath.

No significant changes in the forecast from recent model runs, I will have a full update by 0630 as the strong system offshore begins to close in on the west coast. The low will track towards Valentia then will swerve north and only come inland over Galway and Mayo later tomorrow evening. But the zone of heaviest rainfall will be spread out ahead of that track in an arc already quite easy to spot on satellite imagery, then as that reaches eastern Ireland, the trough hanging south from the low centre will become more active than it is now over the Atlantic due to the destabilizing influence of land, so that more areas of showery rain will develop in waves behind the occluding front.

The Tuesday weather here is cloudy with sunny breaks, cool and breezy (17 C for the high). Parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan are seeing perhaps their coldest July afternoon on record with temperatures in the 7 to 12 C range over a large region there (with low cloud, rain and strong winds too).

Severe storms are developing in Manitoba and North Dakota.

UPDATE _ Wednesday 14th at 5 p.m.
_____________________________

Numerous heavy showers with some thunder scattered across the western third of Ireland late this afternoon, generally the activity is becoming more concentrated west of the Shannon-Lough Derg line (extended southwards) as a zone of more stable air settles over eastern Ireland this afternoon and evening. In Connacht there may be some local rainfalls of 20-30 mms but the activity is rather sporadic from "pulse" cells with relatively short life cycles. Anyone right under one of these at maximum intensity could have quite a strong downpour with some thunder and one or two cells could become sources of frequent lightning for a while. There is little risk of strong wind gusts in this set-up. The surface low appears to be drifting northwards up the west coast or slightly inland.

Later on this evening and overnight some of this activity will tend to die off to scattered light showers while the dry areas in eastern Ireland will perhaps begin to receive some showers from the east and southeast, although it will be tomorrow where this activity will begin to intensify under the influence of daytime heating of the increasingly unstable moist air.

Refer to the previous forecast for further details for Thursday.

Quite a strong line of supercell thunderstorms in eastern France, Belgium and now into southwest Holland. These are drifting east as well as north, and will generate some severe weather especially in Belgium and the Ardennes into Luxembourg and extreme western Germany. The activity over England and Wales is less severe but rather than being pulse type cells as in Ireland, these are linear cells with longer life cycles, moving slowly north along troughs connecting the upper and surface low to the main front in France. This activity will be replenished overnight by cells drifting north out of western France into the Channel and across the south coast of England.

A nice clear morning here and I am heading out for a while, refer to the other threads ongoing in the weather forum covering today's rain and thunder.

Thursday, 15 July, 2010
___________________________

TODAY will start out cloudy and misty in some places with brief showers, a few brighter intervals, then watch out for rapidly developing heavy showers some of them thundery with hail, rather gusty SSW winds near the south coast spreading across the southeast, while further west the winds remain almost calm to easterly 10-15 mph. By afternoon, some severe storms could develop especially in the central to southeast counties. Highs will be around 17 to 19 C, and rainfalls variable but potentially as heavy as 25-40 mms locally (but 5-15 mms in many other places).

TONIGHT will remain showery with moderate westerly winds and lows near 13 or 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers heavier in the north than elsewhere, and somewhat cooler with lower humidity than recent days, highs near 17 C. Winds WNW 15-30 mph, rainfalls 3-6 mms.

SATURDAY will bring brighter skies and some longer sunny intervals with any lingering showers confined to the northeast during the morning; however, by late afternoon cloud will spread in rapidly and rain may follow by evening in the southwest. Highs will be about 20 C.

SUNDAY will bring cloud, intervals of light rain, and rather humid conditions with highs near 19 C.

NEXT WEEK looks "meh" to quote one of our weather observers ... and while it shouldn't be as wet or stormy as this week, there will be a few showery episodes as well as some dry intervals, and temperatures near 20 C most days. There are signs of warmer weather in the following week.

We enjoyed a very fine day here with low humidity, sunshine and 23 C. Very hot and humid in the midwest U.S. and warm and humid on the east coast; severe storms have developed across the western Great Lakes spreading towards southern Ontario and Michigan.

Watch for updates on today's potentially stormy weather and check the other threads too.