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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-14
Convective Weather
... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
Some pockets of elevated convection may be ongoing first thing on Sunday morning, particularly across central and/or southern Ireland, but probably with a weakening trend as mid-level instability gradually reduces. However, it is possible this may become rooted within the boundary layer across parts of Munster by late morning/midday, as diurnal heating increases surface-based CAPE. Either way, assuming early cloud cover breaks sufficiently to allow strong surface heating through the day, some 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE is expected to build. Highest dewpoints will be located in W and NW Ireland, and here the greatest instability is expected. A combination of sea breeze convergence inland from the west coasts, and orographic forcing, will provide the primary trigger for deep convection to develop but also likely aided by a substanial shortwave that will drift eastwards across Ireland during the second half of the afternoon into early evening.
The net result is numerous thunderstorms are expected to erupt, perhaps initially in Munster late morning as previously mentioned, but more widely across SW / W / NW Ireland through the afternoon. General storm motion will be to the W or SW, which is likely to lead to elements of backbuilding as additional cells develop along the same sea breeze boundaries / orographic features and train over similar areas. The magnitude of CAPE, forcing and steep mid-level lapse rates, albeit with modest shear (15-25kts) suggests lightning could be quite frequent at times (40-45% chance), and since some elements of backbuilding / training will likely occur, it could also persist for some length of time in places. As a result we may consider upgrading to MDT if confidence increases in areas that are most prone. While hail up to 1.5cm in diameter may be possible, the greatest threat is from surface water flooding given PWAT ~25mm, with potential event totals of 30-50mm possible locally.
While thunderstorms will generally weaken during the evening hours and drift offshore, remnant showers from Wales may drift across the Irish Sea into eastern Ireland overnight and as such a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible with this activity, even well into the early hours.0 -
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