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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

DOCARCH

Just starting new thread for the season(s). Nothing to report!

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Reversal

The evening storms in the SE seem common enough during this type of set up, seems the be at least a yearly occurance down there, always late evening early night. Any reason for it? Warmer SSTs due to shallow water or something?

Kermit.de.frog

Show time on the south coast

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Unlikely, couldn't rule out a rouge though

:pac:

chris2007

It's the east coast turn Tuesday

pad199207

Lightning flashes visible from Naas

Danno

Can see the WX storm from here in Laois! Impressed

Mortelaro

It's very frequent to the south here now as seen from here near Arklow and lighting up a lot of the sky in that direction
Heres a short video taken a minute ago

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1271927093241274373?s=19

Oscar Bravo

2 cargo flights have changed course to the south as they deviate around them high cloud tops around the Wexford area

Humberto Salazar

Danno wrote: »

Can see the WX storm from here in Laois! Impressed

North offaly and can see it too.

PukkaStukka

chris2007 wrote: »

It's the east coast turn Tuesday

How come?

TheMilkyPirate

Some of the loudest thunder I've ever heard in my life the last half hour in Wexford town

Meteorite58

Nice moderate rain here now near Tralee, ran out of juice before it got here. Interesting night ahead.

Looks like a nice area of convergence along the S coasts

Danno

Can hear very faint distant thunder too!
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3002664909847608&id=273958852718241

30 seconds in on that FB video

pad199207

Frequent flashes from Naas now.

Oscar Bravo

Johnstown Castle reporting 6.0mm of rain at 11pm

Gaoth Laidir

Johnstown Castle is right in the thick of it down there. Visibility down to 1800 m in heavy rain. Temperature 12.7, down from 15.4 an hour earlier.

PsMETAR JOHN 132200Z AUTO 12003KT 1800NDV +SHRA BKN004/// BKN014/// BKN043/// 13/11 1011 MSL=

hawkwing

Southern sky lighting up frequently now and constant rumbles--coming from Carrick/North Waterford direction

Meteorite58

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-14

Convective Weather

... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
Some pockets of elevated convection may be ongoing first thing on Sunday morning, particularly across central and/or southern Ireland, but probably with a weakening trend as mid-level instability gradually reduces. However, it is possible this may become rooted within the boundary layer across parts of Munster by late morning/midday, as diurnal heating increases surface-based CAPE. Either way, assuming early cloud cover breaks sufficiently to allow strong surface heating through the day, some 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE is expected to build. Highest dewpoints will be located in W and NW Ireland, and here the greatest instability is expected. A combination of sea breeze convergence inland from the west coasts, and orographic forcing, will provide the primary trigger for deep convection to develop but also likely aided by a substanial shortwave that will drift eastwards across Ireland during the second half of the afternoon into early evening.

The net result is numerous thunderstorms are expected to erupt, perhaps initially in Munster late morning as previously mentioned, but more widely across SW / W / NW Ireland through the afternoon. General storm motion will be to the W or SW, which is likely to lead to elements of backbuilding as additional cells develop along the same sea breeze boundaries / orographic features and train over similar areas. The magnitude of CAPE, forcing and steep mid-level lapse rates, albeit with modest shear (15-25kts) suggests lightning could be quite frequent at times (40-45% chance), and since some elements of backbuilding / training will likely occur, it could also persist for some length of time in places. As a result we may consider upgrading to MDT if confidence increases in areas that are most prone. While hail up to 1.5cm in diameter may be possible, the greatest threat is from surface water flooding given PWAT ~25mm, with potential event totals of 30-50mm possible locally.

While thunderstorms will generally weaken during the evening hours and drift offshore, remnant showers from Wales may drift across the Irish Sea into eastern Ireland overnight and as such a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible with this activity, even well into the early hours.

Gonzo

chris2007 wrote: »

Anyone know if Dublin could get any thunderstorms during the night

very unlikely, Dublin is beside Meath and Meath has to be one of the least thundery locations in Ireland, I think we've had 2 brief thunderstorms since 1985.

The majority of thunder in Ireland is usually in the west or along the south coast or up the Irish sea from UK/EU imports. It's rarer than hens teeth to get a thunderstorm in this part of Ireland.

Kermit.de.frog

Meteorite58 wrote: »

While thunderstorms will generally weaken during the evening hours and drift offshore, remnant showers from Wales may drift across the Irish Sea into eastern Ireland overnight and as such a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible with this activity, even well into the early hours.[/I]

Will there be tariffs applied to these imports? :pac:

Kermit.de.frog

I know it's Waterford but someone must have a smartphone?

JanuarySnowstor

Waterford does look lively right now yet nobody reporting.
Ah well it will soon be in Cork lol

vikings2012

Heavy thunderstorms and lightning in East Waterford at the moment.

Whehey!

Still lightening in Wexford town

Speak Now

Never saw a storm like this in Waterford, the noise and the flashing is constant!

Kermit.de.frog

I wonder is the activity a little further north in northern Wexford/southern Wicklow going to spark.

Meteorite58

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Will there be tariffs applied to these imports? :pac:

There may be a fair bit of social distancing going on with these :cool:

But yeah some of the models showing heavy rain could reach the E coast tomorrow evening, ICON Flash showing thunderstorms possible??

Tiger Roll

Go to Waterford weather on Twitter, he is live broadcasting it . Torrential rain here , huge flashes

morebarn

Massive lightening strikes over Waterford city in last few minuted

Mortelaro

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wonder is the activity a little further north in northern Wexford/southern Wicklow going to spark.

Saw one flash from that shower
It's to the south of me