The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

Sponge Bob · 21-01-2011 11:08am

Redsunset, you referred to a 2006 paper that predicted this current solar cycle was 'shaping' to be a Dalton Minimum type one. Is this the paper ??

http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Solar%20Cycles%2024%20and%2025%20and%20Predicted%20Climate%20Response.pdf

"Based on solar maxima of approximately
50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5°C is predicted to 2020, equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum."

This critique of said 2006 paper (the critique is from 2007) concludes as follows. I am not commenting on it save to say that the facts on the ground in 2011 will tend to prove who was right at that time.

Here it gets weird. Archibald goes on to conclude that based on solar cycles 24 and 25 with predicted amplitudes of around 50 (hardly anyone is actually predicting this, most predictions are much higher), the correlation equation from his second graph shows a declining temperature of 1.5C in the US!. But his second graph has a correlation based on solar cycle length, not solar cycle amplitude, so it isn’t applicable! He then claims in the next paragraph that the 1.5C figure actually comes from the temperature response to cycles 5 and 6, and not the correlation I guess.

Archibald himself, it is fair to say, relies extensively on THIS 2001 paper mainly from a group of Russian Scientists connected with this research institute . They posited that one could look 10 years ahead...and seeing as they posited that in 2000 the prediction is coming to an end today....and is therefore worth revisiting today to see how accurate they were.

Redsunset · 21-01-2011 1:10pm

wildefalcon wrote: »

Redsunset,

I hope these links help.

What is the AP index? How does it interact/correlate to the solar cycle?

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/ApStardescription.pdf

The Oulu Neutron Count is a count of the number of neutrons hitting the earth, right? I presume that the weaker magnetic field of the sun allows more neutrons to escape its gravity. Is this right?

http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//listen/main.html#intro

http://ulysses.sr.unh.edu/NeutronMonitor/background.html

A less active sun has shown increased solar cosmic ray particles.

http://www2.slac.stanford.edu/vvc/cosmicrays/cratmos.html
One theory is more cloud cover

Redsunset · 21-01-2011 1:20pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Redsunset, you referred to a 2006 paper that predicted this current solar cycle was 'shaping' to be a Dalton Minimum type one. Is this the paper ??

http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Solar%20Cycles%2024%20and%2025%20and%20Predicted%20Climate%20Response.pdf

"Based on solar maxima of approximately
50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5°C is predicted to 2020, equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum."

This critique of said 2006 paper (the critique is from 2007) concludes as follows. I am not commenting on it save to say that the facts on the ground in 2011 will tend to prove who was right at that time.

Archibald himself, it is fair to say, relies extensively on THIS 2001 paper mainly from a group of Russian Scientists connected with this research institute . They posited that one could look 10 years ahead...and seeing as they posited that in 2000 the prediction is coming to an end today....and is therefore worth revisiting today to see how accurate they were.

Yes that 2006 paper was of poor standard.The 2009 one i've posted on previous page is an improvement.
All i can say is and i've being saying this all through the thread,make your own mind up of who is right or wrong because there is certainly false info intwinded on both sides along the way.
Ah come back in twenty years and see who'll be waving the finger and saying i told you so.:D
Whoever it may be.
Im only trying to follow this side of it and see where it goes.

Redsunset · 29-01-2011 4:08pm

This is a wonderful link that shows 6 different views of the last 48 hrs of the sun and is updated every 30 minutes.I must warn you that it may take a minute or so to fully load up on some slower internet connections but in my opinion it really is worth the wait.ENJOY.

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/SDO_Self_Updating_6.htm

Redsunset · 30-01-2011 7:44pm

Joe talks about the solar cycles being ramped up for last couple of hundred years half way through the vid.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/756131056001/bastardi-a-la-nina-that-is-k.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Duiske · 14-02-2011 4:27am

An M-Class solar flare was recorded earlier today from the region of rapidly growing sunspot group 1158.

From NASA.

The active region is now more than 100,000 km wide with at least a dozen Earth-sized dark cores scattered beneath its unstable magnetic canopy. Earth-directed eruptions are likely in the hours ahead.

wildefalcon · 15-02-2011 10:36am

Duiske,

What does that mean? Does mean there is a risk of damage to sensitive space equipment?

Or will this exposed HT power lines to overload?

Thank you.

MiNdGaM3 · 15-02-2011 11:42am

x-class flare last night with CME
http://spaceweather.com/

Chance of some mid-latitude auroras perhaps?

snowstreams · 16-02-2011 5:42pm

What could be the most southerly point in ireland to be able to see these auroras? it would be great to see one.

Speak Now · 16-02-2011 6:25pm

Sun back to life then

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12485104

Sun unleashes huge solar flare towards Earth
The bright source of the flare can be seen close to the centre of the Sun Continue reading the main story
Related Stories
Satellites sit either side of Sun
Are solar flares a real threat?
Plans for solar 'close encounter'
The Sun has unleashed its strongest flare in four years, observers say.

The eruption is a so-called X-flare, the strongest type; such flares can affect communications on Earth.

Nasa's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft recorded an intense flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation emanating from a sunspot.

The British Geological Survey (BGS) has issued a geomagnetic storm warning, and says observers might be able to see aurorae from the northern UK.

The monster flare was recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February and directed at the Earth. According to the US space agency, the source of this activity - sunspot 1158 - is growing rapidly.

Preliminary data from the Stereo-B and Soho spacecraft suggest that the explosion produced a fast but not particularly bright coronal mass ejection (CME) - a burst of charged particles released into space.

The unpredictable eruptions on the Sun can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites.

On Wednesday, the BGS released a rarely seen archive of geomagnetic records that provide an insight into "space weather" stretching back to the Victorian era.

BGS scientists say that studies of solar storms in the past could inform the prediction of future space weather and help mitigate threats to national infrastructure.

Displays of the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) have already been seen further south than usual in Northern Ireland and elsewhere in the UK. And further solar activity is expected over the next few days.

Researchers say the Sun has been awakening after a period of several years of low activity.

Elmer Blooker · 16-02-2011 9:02pm

snowstreams wrote: »

What could be the most southerly point in ireland to be able to see these auroras? it would be great to see one.

I witnessed a fantastic display in South Wexford at the end of October 2003.
Obviously I wasn't the only one to see the aurora, the next day there was a photo of the aurora in The Irish Times taken on Sherkin Island, W.Cork which is about as far south as you can get.

BEASTERLY · 17-02-2011 12:21am

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I witnessed a fantastic display in South Wexford at the end of October 2003.

Remember it well, prob never see something similar again:(

M.T. Cranium · 17-02-2011 12:39am

Any Donegal or Mayo people on here tonight? I think you've got the best chance of seeing any displays of northern lights tonight, although moon will interfere (until after midnight). I don't think I've got much chance here (cloudy next 12h).

On another front entirely, have been number crunching CET data against solar cycle past two days, and found some interesting patterns. Will post these in more detail, but basically, the idea that temperature varies with solar activity is a rather weak hypothesis during regular cycles, it only seems to kick in during extended slowdowns and weaker solar periods.

However, there are stronger second-order signals during regular service (as would characterize the periods 1714-97, 1834-1874 and 1915-2003). During these regular, strong cycles, the temperatures show these patterns:

coldest between cycles near minimum

two pulses of modest warming about 3 and 1.5 years before maximum

another cold period in the winter before maximum

a very warm period near end of max year and following year

a colder period around 2 years after the max

a final surge of warmth around 3-4 years after max

then reload

I haven't had time to think about why this may be. Then I took the weaker cycles (the data were arranged so that solar max always fell in year 7 of a 16-year time segment), those that came around 1705, 1801-1830 and 1883-1905 peaks. I left out the Maunder very quiet spell because "peaks" there are more or less arbitrary. Those seven weaker cycles look about the same as the total data set but are generally depressed by half a degree except for the final surge of warmth which is stronger. Odd but true.

What this suggests about the current situation, assuming we may be in a weaker cycle, is that we just passed the point between two modest peaks of warmth and now it's on to a final big cold winter and the eventual spike of warmth at and after the postulated 2013 maximum. Global El Nino in 2012-13 might enhance that. So, quite possibly, expect another very cold winter in 2011-2012 from all of the above, and perhaps even one more in 2012-2013 depending on how strong the El Nino proves to be.

These "start of max" cold winters in regular service are not quite a perfect fit. Looking at those in the 20th century, they occur in 1917 (correct), 1929 (year late), not near 1937 (fail), 1947 (correct), 1956 (year early), 1969 (marginal, 68 used as max but 68 and 69 about equal), 1979 (correct), 1987 (two years early) or 1991 (two years late), and then with the 2001 max, not really anything. It seems about the same scatter in 18th and 19th centuries. However, the data averages move up and down in similar curves for all cases. So there is something buried in the data, the amplitude of these waves is about one-tenth of the actual variability of the climate.

The inter-cycle cold winters are easier to align since inter-cycle is a broader definition. A rough census of them since 1940 would include 1943-45, 1952, 1963, 1974-5 case missing, 1983-85, 1995-96, 2009-11.

The mild after peak winters and warm summers might line up as 1938, 1949, 1959, 1970, 1981, 1990, 2002-3.

I've always felt that the standard explanation of solar variability influence on temperature is bogus. I don't think it is driven by changes in irradiance, but signals of some kind of field interference that drives the solar cycle. The role of irradiance variability is undoubtedly greater in long-term events like the Dalton or certainly the Maunder, but I tend to the belief that in regular activity, the main drivers are field segments and how they interact.

Jimmy Garlic · 20-02-2011 3:39pm

I found this quite interesting..

February 18, 2011
NASA and the ESA agree, and so does the Russian space agency, Roscosmos—the sun is headed for a Grand Solar Minimum and a Grand Cooling will commence.

The aptly named Grand Cooling is exactly what it implies: the sun is going to cool. That cooling will also cool off the Earth. It will last from 30 to 50 years.

Full article available to read here;
http://www.helium.com/items/2094726-scientists-suns-approaching-grand-cooling-assures-new-ice-age

This raises serious questions as to why global warming theory is still being forcefully pushed along with carbon taxing. The Sun, our planets source of heat is by far the biggest factor that effects earths temperature and climate and there ain't much we can do about it, we can't tax it away.

Trogdor · 20-02-2011 4:26pm

Threads merged.

mike65 · 20-02-2011 4:38pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

I found this quite interesting..

Full article available to read here;
http://www.helium.com/items/2094726-scientists-suns-approaching-grand-cooling-assures-new-ice-age

This raises serious questions as to why global warming theory is still being forcefully pushed along with carbon taxing. The Sun, our planets source of heat is by far the biggest factor that effects earths temperature and climate and there ain't much we can do about it, we can't tax it away.

http://www.helium.com/items/1882339-doomsday-how-bp-gulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event

http://help.helium.com/earn-money-helium

Helium pays members based on the value of each article, which is based on a combination of three market factors:

Article quality: The best-written and highest-ranked articles earn the most money. Why? Because quality matters. Those ranked at the top will be read more often and are considered more valuable to Helium members, readers and advertisers.

Traffic: How many readers are interested in the article’s topic? Some subjects draw more total viewers than others. Topics and articles with more page views earn more money.

Advertiser interest: Some topics have higher-paying advertisers or more buzz than others. Each topic attracts a unique set of advertisers with varying budgets. For example, subjects in the area of personal finance will generally draw a higher ad rate than subjects like chess.

You'll excuse me if I don't regard helium.com as a reliable source.

sharper · 21-02-2011 11:37am

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

I found this quite interesting..

The article references a position which it asserts is held by NASA, the ESA and the Russian space agency and yet quotes nobody from those organisations.

Of the two people it does reference one has been dead for 7 years and the other is 90 years old.

Talk about scraping the barrel.

wildefalcon · 21-02-2011 11:44am

I sometimes use formulae devised by dead people, I didn't realise that this was bad practice.

New mantra:

I must not use calculus, I must not use calculus.

I won't use a computer that uses 3d rendering as it uses hamilton's formulae, as for using radio and it's dependence on the work by Marconi, darn!

Hang on a minute, is the guy who invented the internal combustion engine dead?

Ah, NOW I see the point.

wildefalcon · 21-02-2011 11:47am

Oh, I just noticed - stuff by old people isn't allowed either.

Now that makes it tricky... is Steve Jobs old? What's the cut-off? Is Bill Gates ok?

Is James Lovelock too old?

This is very worrying, perhaps I'm too old and shouldn't listen to myself? But what if I'm repeating what I thought when I was young enough?

I think I'll go and lie down.

sharper · 21-02-2011 11:58am

wildefalcon wrote: »

I sometimes use formulae devised by dead people, I didn't realise that this was bad practice.

wildefalcon wrote: »

Oh, I just noticed - stuff by old people isn't allowed either.

The article made claims about a current event which it said was supported by NASA, ESA and the Russian Space agency.

Then in place of those organisations it quotes someone long dead and a 90 year old who's long retired.

Ah, NOW I see the point.

No you're deliberately missing the point in order to cover for the fact that this is a shockingly terrible article which make no effort at all to support its own points.

wildefalcon · 21-02-2011 12:10pm

I agree - the article is only a magazine piece - and not a scientific paper, and thus not a valid reference source.

My point was that the article was rejected on the grounds that of the two sources quoted "one has been dead for 7 years and the other is 90 years old".

I was concerned that the two individuals were considered unreliable sources purely because of their age/status.

I hope I don't have to explain why this is concerning me.

I should admit, in the spirit of an open rancour-free debate, that I am someone who is sceptical of the Global Warming Theory, and am very sensitive to the "bashing" that those who express their scepticism receive from some exponents of that theory. Not all, but some.

I view scepticism as an essential part of the scientific mindset, for science to retain its objective perspective, and thus it's value to mankind. Otherwise it will take on the status of a religion.

sharper · 21-02-2011 12:49pm

wildefalcon wrote: »

I view scepticism as an essential part of the scientific mindset

That should include articles which claim "NASA believes..." and then quotes a 90 year old with no connection to NASA

My point was that the article was rejected on the grounds that of the two sources quoted "one has been dead for 7 years and the other is 90 years old".

They were rejected because they were presented as authorities on what's happening with current solar activity when they're clearly nothing of the sort.

You'd think that if the claims of the article were true they could get someone actively involved in solar research to discuss it.

wildefalcon · 21-02-2011 1:41pm

I understand that, but that isn't what you rejected the researchers on, it was their age.

Research is research, the age and status of the researcher should be irrelevant, what counts is the quality of the research, the hypothesis, the testing of that hypothesis, and the conclusion. And, of course, the peer reviews.

Just because the research is 5 days old, 5 years old, or 5 decades old doesn't make it irrelevant or wrong.

That article was a magazine piece - not a scientific paper. It is also highly likely that the only access the writer had was to older published material.

Again, my point is that the age of the researcher is irrelevant, and the age of the research is relevant, but not a valid grounds to reject the research.

Redsunset · 03-03-2011 8:02am

Updated version of missing sunspots case.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/02mar_spotlesssun/

Sponge Bob · 03-03-2011 4:28pm

On this subject NASA are trying to launch a new sat with a Total Irradiance Monitor payload. The existing TIM instrument is on the SORCE sat and a separate instrument on that Sat named SIM has thrown up interesting recent observations about PARTS of the spectrum.....wrong kind of sunlight sort of vibe.

While the new sat, known as GLORY, will not confirm SIM observations it may confirm that the SORCE TIM data is correct or it may confirm some instrumental drift which has been inferred against the SIM data

There won't be a new SIM for a few years, perhaps 5. Some comparisons between SIM data and an instrument called SCIAMACHY on Envisat have been made, eg

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/UVSAT_material/papers/noel_ACVE3.pdf

To my eye the correlation was quite tight in that data ( from 2004) and I would like to see the same data run again for the minimum. However if it diverges then that points to drift in SIM or SCIAMACHY ....or indeed both

Another instrument named AATSR has been mentioned in that article

http://envisat.esa.int/instruments/aatsr/faq/AATSR_FAQ_issue1.pdf

The SIM controversy is that while total irradiance has not changed much the balance of irradiance between frequencies has changed rather a lot.

There have been some anecdotal comments made (most frequently by AGW sceptics) on changes apparently logged by SIM in the UV bands.....namely that certain forms of UV radiation may have dropped sharply and that human flesh apparently takes longer to burn nodays.

MiNdGaM3 · 10-03-2011 11:07am

X-class flare and potential Earth directed CME last night.

http://spaceweather.com/

The sun has certainly woken up!

Sponge Bob · 10-03-2011 4:27pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

On this subject NASA are trying to launch a new sat with a Total Irradiance Monitor payload. The existing TIM instrument is on the SORCE sat and a separate instrument on that Sat named SIM has thrown up interesting recent observations about PARTS of the spectrum.....wrong kind of sunlight sort of vibe.

While the new sat, known as GLORY, will not confirm SIM observations it may confirm that the SORCE TIM data is correct or it may confirm some instrumental drift which has been inferred against the SIM data

Scratch that

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2011/mar/HQ_11-050_N0_Glory.html

NASA's Glory Satellite Fails To Reach Orbit

WASHINGTON -- NASA's Glory mission launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California Friday at 5:09:45 a.m. EST failed to reach orbit.

Telemetry indicated the fairing, the protective shell atop the Taurus XL rocket, did not separate as expected about three minutes after launch.

morticia2 · 06-04-2011 9:40pm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/05/arctic-ocean-freshwater-climate?INTCMP=SRCH

Anyone seen this?? Seems like quite a high chance of effects on the gulf stream in the not-too-distant future.

Might explain the last few winters?

01-06-2011 11:11pm

Time to bump this, it appears that the sun is trying to catch up with the predicted path.

desolate sun · 03-06-2011 5:11pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Time to bump this, it appears that the sun is trying to catch up with the predicted path.

So I take it that that graph represents an increase in solar activity which could mean less cooler winters (than the previous two)??

thetonynator · 03-06-2011 5:20pm

desolate sun wrote: »

So I take it that that graph represents an increase in solar activity which could mean less cooler winters (than the previous two)??

I think theres a big enough delay between the two, and its being predicted as a pretty low maximum either way.

BEASTERLY · 04-06-2011 11:11am

thetonynator wrote: »

I think theres a big enough delay between the two, and its being predicted as a pretty low maximum either way.

Plus a connection between the two is far from proven or concrete. There may not be a connection at all.

Between irish winter temperatures and solar activity that is.

Redsunset · 07-06-2011 11:01pm

The sun at the moment is blowing alot of hot smoke and not much fire, Even though activity has increased and it was going to,it still is a long way off any mental surge.Still Dalton potential.

Any way found this report.

Top Scientist Says New Solar Wobble to Prolong Global Cooling

May 31, 2011

Our Climate Changes with Solar Gravity - NASA[/I

]As a new solar minimum takes our planet towards global cooling an increasing number of scientists give credence to a new theory blaming our Sun's wobble.

It started in 2007 when scientists saw that gravitational forces in our solar system may have a huge impact on Earth's climate. Professor Ivanka Charvátová, CSc. from the Geophysical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, explains why there is suddenly so much interest in her theory in an exclusive interview with klimatskeptik.cz.

Professor Charvátová calls it Solar Inertial Motion (SIM) and she claims it will have serious impacts on our climate. She says a predictable "wobble" of our Sun called barycenter shift alters Earth's weather patterns. Few climatologists have yet studied this phenomenon. But the evidence supporting Professor Charvátová's SIM theory is becoming ever more compelling.
Our Wobbling Sun

Increased international interest in the SIM 'wobble effect' began after Australian scientist Dr. Richard Mackey published a paper addressing the effects of the barycenter shift in The Journal of Coastal Research in 2007. Mackey drew inspiration from the work of the late Rhodes Fairbridge.

Fairbridge was one of the first English-speaking experts to appreciate the significance of Professor Charvátová's findings. The Czech expert had suddenly stolen the limelight because, as she says „I was the only one in the whole world who got the 23rd sunspot cycle prediction right."
She recalls, "Even before my major discovery came, Prof R.W.Fairbridge contacted me after I published an article about SIM periodicity in Paris." The publication was in her former name, Jakubcová.
Climatologists Accused of Ignoring New Science

When asked how much of this groundbreaking new science the UN's beleaguered climate panel, the IPCC, took into account in their global warming reports, she answered, "Nothing at all. They are allergic to SIM."

She explained that traditional thinking only considered science that supports the greenhouse gas theory which, in turn, attributes a substantial component of climate change to human influence. Professor Charvátová laments that the IPCC still fails to consider a whole range of climate forcing phenomena with any solar-terrestrial link, e.g. cosmic rays, geomagnetic, solar gravitational forces, volcanic activity, etc.

Despite the IPCC's lack of interest in the issue scientists have long known that the Sun's position in space moves about the solar system's center of mass (barycenter) in cycles that repeat themselves every 178 to 180 years. Records show that this increased shift occurred in 1632, 1811 and significantly impacted Earth's temperatures each time. We are now in the midst of another such period that first began in 1990 and will run until 2013.

The impact of this new SIM minimum could last until 2091 because of the 900-year "great inequality" of the motion of Jupiter and Saturn.
Referring to another respected SIM researcher, Theodor Landscheidt, Ivanka says, „We agree that in the first half of the 21st century the solar activity might be lower and even the temperatures might go down." Mainstream science is only now slowly waking up to SIM theory as reported by Govert Schilling's article, 'Did Quiet Sun Cause Little Ice Age After All?' (May 26, 2011) for AAA.org's Science Mag.

Ivanka and her supporters fear Earth may even face climate calamity not due to heat but from global cooling as cosmic forces combine with increased volcanic and earthquake activity to plunge our planet into a repeat of 1816, the "year without a summer," a calamitous episode known to scientists and historians as "eighteen hundred and froze to death." Experts fear we may now be headed into extreme weather events that will be potentially far worse.

The infamous year of 1816 was beset with powerful changes in magnetism, major volcanic eruptions, and the wobbling of the Sun's position. It is believed that the coincidence of those powerful forces of nature propelled our planet into the widespread famine, drought, and destructive snows and rains that so many historians documented. Only recently have scientists thought to make the link with those corellated climatic events and solar "wobble" and come up with the SIM theory.
Greenhouse Gas Theory Disputed Among Independent Researchers

Among the biggest fans of this new science are skeptics critical of the UN's preferred theory about climate, the greenhouse gas effect (GHE), which tells us that carbon dioxide (CO2) among other atmospheric gases, traps solar heat. The UN insists the GHE is key to our planet's climate. But the predicted steep rises in global temperatures by GHE believers hasn't occurred this century. Also, the Climategate scandal shook confidence in the science surrounding the GHE after researchers were accused of fudging their data and refusing to disclose their calculations.

Asked about her associations with climate skeptics Ivanka replied she consulted many, "For instance Prof. O. Manuel, the former chief researcher of the Apollo project. They even published a book 'Slaying the Sky Dragon,' a book she says, that documents „the scandals of the climate change research and thus also the uncertainties in the temperature measurements of the last 40 years or so."

Professor Charvátová does gives us some hope that we will survive this new cooling period: "You may find it comforting that no matter how the Sun wiggles, every 179 years it comes back to a regular trefoil path."

Ivanka and other scientists insist that our sun, like most stars, has much variability and climate science must now begin to properly account for this. She cautions against blaming human emissions of CO2 when a previously ill-considered natural cause is more likely the key to our further understanding.

Redsunset · 08-06-2011 12:58am

coronal-mass-ejection-june-2011.jpg?1307480806

Simply stunning flare from Sunspot complex 1226-1227 .

Only an M flare so nothing to worry about.

It was just beautiful.
A big thanks to Jake1 for pointing it out an her thread.
Watch it again here, views of last 48 hours,takes a good while to load on slower connections.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/SDO_Self_Updating_6.htm

red menace · 14-06-2011 9:46pm

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/

The announcement made on 14 June (18:00 UK time) comes from scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and US Air Force Research Laboratory. Three different analyses of the Sun's recent behaviour all indicate that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin.
The Sun normally follows an 11-year cycle of activity. The current cycle, Cycle 24, is now supposed to be ramping up towards maximum strength. Increased numbers of sunspots and other indications ought to be happening: but in fact results so far are most disappointing. Scientists at the NSO now suspect, based on data showing decades-long trends leading to this point, that Cycle 25 may not happen at all.
This could have major implications for the Earth's climate. According to a statement issued by the NSO, announcing the research:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

Could be interesting times ahead

Duiske · 14-06-2011 10:38pm

Was just reading about it at Space.com. Interesting stuff.

Just a thought, but maybe this thread should be combined with the " The sun is dead" thread ?

HellFireClub · 15-06-2011 12:32am

You'd have to wonder, with all the worry about global warming and man-made climate change, if there is any possibility that there could be some kind of a feedback system between the sun and the earth, unknown to us at the current time, that means that when the earth starts warming up, (as we have caused it to), that the sun basically cools down for a bit!

I know this sounds somewhere between pure silly and a mad belief that God is at the universal controls, but maybe we shouldn't get too cocky about ourselves yet on planet earth, we still don't fully understand the human brain yet, how dreams are made, how human memory works, etc, so it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that mother nature has an influence outside of our earthly little home that kicks in to save us from ourselves every now and again!

Redsunset · 15-06-2011 6:59am

Here is the latest Butterfly Diagram.

butterflypatterofsunspots.gif?w=500&h=312

Click on image to enlarge.

And bit of info bout it for those who don't understand.

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1010/1010.3131v1.pdf

And the Sun's magnetic field is still on the decline,as explained in previous posts

The average magnetic field strength in sunspot umbras has been steadily declining for over a decade.

weisses · 15-06-2011 9:26am

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/14apr_thewatchedpot/

Its all a hype .... all those so called scientists just looking for something to do to justify their subsidized jobs

In April everyone is happy and in June its all gone

The sun is 4.5 billion years old :cool:

maquiladora · 15-06-2011 10:09am

Very interesting stuff.

However its important to remember that (as far as I know) there has been no proven link that the Little Ice Age was directly connected to the Maunder Minimum. Volcanic activity, thermohaline circulation changes or a combination of a number of things may have led to the Little Ice Age.

mike65 · 15-06-2011 10:13am

HellFireClub wrote: »

You'd have to wonder, with all the worry about global warming and man-made climate change, if there is any possibility that there could be some kind of a feedback system between the sun and the earth, unknown to us at the current time, that means that when the earth starts warming up, (as we have caused it to), that the sun basically cools down for a bit!

This is possibly the stupidest thing I've ever read on boards.

BEASTERLY · 15-06-2011 10:17am

HellFireClub wrote: »

You'd have to wonder, with all the worry about global warming and man-made climate change, if there is any possibility that there could be some kind of a feedback system between the sun and the earth, unknown to us at the current time, that means that when the earth starts warming up, (as we have caused it to), that the sun basically cools down for a bit!

:eek:

:eek:

I like how the other planets in the solar system have no say, just earth!:P

Seriously though, you must be taking the piss.

weisses · 15-06-2011 10:24am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

:eek::eek:

I like how the other planets in the solar system have no say, just earth!:P

Seriously though, you must be taking the piss.

He thought this was the conspiracy theory forum .... give em a break man

sparks24 · 15-06-2011 10:37am

HellFireClub wrote: »

You'd have to wonder, with all the worry about global warming and man-made climate change, if there is any possibility that there could be some kind of a feedback system between the sun and the earth, unknown to us at the current time, that means that when the earth starts warming up, (as we have caused it to), that the sun basically cools down for a bit!

I know this sounds somewhere between pure silly and a mad belief that God is at the universal controls, but maybe we shouldn't get too cocky about ourselves yet on planet earth, we still don't fully understand the human brain yet, how dreams are made, how human memory works, etc, so it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that mother nature has an influence outside of our earthly little home that kicks in to save us from ourselves every now and again!

my brain hurts

i believe it was some feedback received from reading your post

nacho libre · 15-06-2011 4:50pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Very interesting stuff.

However its important to remember that (as far as I know) there has been no proven link that the Little Ice Age was directly connected to the Maunder Minimum. Volcanic activity, thermohaline circulation changes or a combination of a number of things may have led to the Little Ice Age.

So obviously these factors are not at play to any great extent today in tandem with low sunspot activity.

by the way does anyone here believe in Lovelock's Gaia theory?

planetX · 15-06-2011 7:01pm

Maybe our CO2 emissions will prevent the mini ice-age. I'm going to do my bit by making a few extra car journeys:D
I'm so sick of climate scientists looking for headlines/funding. I refuse to lose any sleep over possible global warming/cooling. We're an adaptable species.

HellFireClub · 15-06-2011 7:40pm

mike65 wrote: »

This is possibly the stupidest thing I've ever read on boards.

That's what they told your man who discovered that the earth wasn't flat!

morticia2 · 15-06-2011 8:52pm

planetX wrote: »

Maybe our CO2 emissions will prevent the mini ice-age. I'm going to do my bit by making a few extra car journeys:D
I'm so sick of climate scientists looking for headlines/funding. I refuse to lose any sleep over possible global warming/cooling. We're an adaptable species.

I would lose more sleep over cooling, in this country, actually. Rocketing fuel prices + arctic winters = people freezing to death. Cold causes about 20,000 extra winter deaths in the elderly (UK stats for a NORMAL UK winter, but I doubt our housing insulation is any better than theirs).

I have a horrible feeling that peak oil may be a serious test of our adaptability, especially under colder conditions.

Expensive and scarce fossil fuels + not enough trees = difficult to keep warm.

bb1234567 · 15-06-2011 9:39pm

so does this cause colder winters in ireland and uk? so will next winter be like the last 2?!?:D

nacho libre · 15-06-2011 9:43pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

so does this cause colder winters in ireland and uk? so will next winter be like the last 2?!?:D

it means in a few years you'll be able to skate on the liffey. it will test the resolve of even the most die hard cold lover- i mean what if connecting to the internet is no longer possible in Ireland. it will be the end of the world as we know it!

The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

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