The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

Thanks M.T,

Looking through my list of sun filters,this is the best i can find to illustrate what your saying.
I think this is what your referring to.





Also i haven't post this graph up before but it really shows how quiet the sun has been.

Effect of solar activity



A substantial portion of the climate variability in the Atlantic sector is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with variations occurring on a wide range of scales. The influence of solar activity (expressed by various indices) on the NAO has been studied by a number of authors. Having reviewed the information available to him, Lamb (1972, p. 252) noticed several tendencies in the surface parameters in relation to solar activity. These tendencies included:

• Strong development of the mid-latitude westerlies, Icelandic low and Azores high around the middle of the declining phase of solar activity;
• Strong meridional and cellular circulation systems at some stage during the more rapid rises of solar disturbance and greatest frequency of very strong anomalies of pressure and temperature (intense systems);
• Also (perhaps later) during the ascent, a phase of strong middle latitudes westerlies, strong Icelandic low and Azores high, seems particularly liable to occur.

More recently, Bucha and Bucha (1998) found a correlation between geomagnetic activity and sea level pressure variations similar to the NAO for the period 1970 to 1996. They suggested a mechanism based on winds generated in the polar thermosphere following geomagnetic storms.

Bochnicek and Hejda (2005) demonstrated that during the winter periods (January–March) of the years 1963–2001 high geomagnetic activity was nearly always associated with a positive phase of the NAO, whereas low geomagnetic activity tended to couple with the negative phase. Palamara and Bryant (2004) and Fujita and Tanaka (2007) found a similar relationship with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). According to Thejll et al. (2003), who studied the relationship between the geomagnetic index Ap and the NAO for the period 1949-2000, the correlation was high and significant only since about 1972.



However, for the period 1949–1972 no significant correlations were found at the surface while significant correlations still existed in the stratosphere. This might indicate that the solar forcing, primarily acting in the stratosphere, is propagating its influence downward in the later period but not in the earlier.

A robust relationship between solar cycle variations, proxied by the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, and the NAM has been found by Ruzmaikin and Feynman (2002). In particular, the NAM index was found to be systematically more negative (corresponding to a weaker polar jet) during low solar activity (Ruzmaikin et al., 2004).


Kodera (2002, 2003) showed that the spatial structure of the NAO varies significantly according to the phase of the solar cycle. During solar maximum phases, the NAO covers the Northern Hemisphere and extends into the stratosphere, which is similar to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Thompson and Wallace, 1998), except for the Pacific sector. By contrast, for minimum solar phases, the NAO is confined to the Atlantic sector and to the troposphere.

Boberg and Lundstedt (2002, 2003) showed that variations of the NAO index could be correlated with the electric field strength of the solar wind. Using geopotential height data they found a strong correlation between the electric field strength of the solar wind and pressure variations in the stratosphere and troposphere. For the tropospheric pressure the influence is confined to the North Atlantic and resembles the action of the NAO.

On a secular time scale, Kirov and Georgieva (2002) found a negative correlation between the NAO index and sunspot activity: the index had a maximum during the period of low solar activity in the late 19th and early 20th century and a minimum during the period of high solar activity in the 1950s and 1960s.

However, since the data covers only one secular cycle, their conclusion is not statistically sound. In their later work, addressing the issue of instability in solar terrestrial relationships, Georgieva et al. (2007) underscored the importance of asymmetry between sunspot numbers in the northern and southern solar hemispheres.

They hypothesize that when the southern solar hemisphere is more active, increasing solar activity in the secular solar cycle leads to strengthening of the zonal atmospheric circulation, and when the northern solar hemisphere is more active, increasing solar activity in the secular solar cycle leads to weakening of the zonal circulation.

There are also a number of works that have examined the effect of solar activity on climatic variables other than the NAO (but often closely related to the NAO). Here, for brevity, we will mention just one of those works, because it underscores the importance of the 22-year Hale cycle, which manifests itself in reversal of polarity of sunspots from one 11-year cycle to another.

According to Bochkov (1978), during even cycles of solar activity and on its ascending branch, the Barents Sea is characterized by suppressed cyclonic activity, negative anomalies of sea and air temperature and increased ice cover. In contrast, during the decreasing branch of solar activity (2-5 years after its maximum), the Barents Sea tends to be warmer than normal. The situation during the odd cycles of solar activity is less clear.


Fig. 1. The winter (DJF) NAO index from CPC, 1951-2008.

Despite the complexity of solar effect on North Atlantic climate, most of the authors seem to agree that negative (positive) NAO phases tend to occur during low (high) levels of solar activity. This simplified relationship refers to both the 11-year and secular solar cycles.
Currently, the solar activity is at the beginning of its 24th cycle. Also, it seems to be on a declining phase of the secular cycle, but still remains relatively high. The behaviour of the NAO ([URL="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Sergei/My%20Documents/ClimateLogic/WebSite/pub/STTA/NAO.png"]Fig. 1[/URL]) and AO ([URL="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Sergei/My%20Documents/ClimateLogic/WebSite/pub/STTA/AO.png"]Fig. 2[/URL]) indices in recent decades seem to be consistent with the above relationship: both indices reached their maximum values in the early 1990s and now tend to stay close to their average values.



Fig. 2. The winter (DJF) AO index from CPC, 1951-2008.

As the 24th solar cycle progresses, entering into its ascending phase, one can expect a weakening of the subpolar low and developing of a meridional type of atmospheric circulation, with an increasing frequency of the negative NAO.

Closer to the maximum of solar activity, and on the descending branch of the cycle, zonal atmospheric circulation (positive NAO) may become prevalent again.

Much will depend on whether the 24th cycle will be weak or strong. If it is going to be a weak cycle (which is somewhat more likely), the NAO may become strongly negative, resulting in a substantial cooling in the Northeast Atlantic, Norwegian and Barents Seas.

a "mega-filament" of solar magnetism erupted on Dec. 6th, producing a blast of epic proportions. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action as the 700,000-km long structure lifted off the stellar surface and--snap!!--hurled itself into space.
http://spaceweather.com/








The statistical pattern depicting the auroral oval is appropriate to the auroral activity level determined from the power flux observed during the most recent polar satellite pass. The power fluxes in the statistical pattern are color coded on a scale from 0 to 10 ergs .cm-2.sec-1 according to the color bar on the right.








Still no major jump in activity

thetonynator wrote: »

The predicted values starting to get contradicted by the actual values . . .could change of course!!!

Oh of course ,sure there always changing that to suit when the actual refuses to marry

Indeed,well Mr wolf would not have been able to see this in the past as technology would not allow so in my view its spotless.



18 Dec 10



Sunspot 1135 is so small, it can only be seen in a very high-resolution image


I really believe that this period of low solar activity is having an influence on our winter seasons.Its not the only factor but really needs to be recognised more.It not all about trade winds and the like.

A Dalton type minimum is still shaping up

Refreshing the memories
Posting link again from 2009

http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf

And now
Updated graphs from David Archibald.



[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 1.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 1: Solar Polar Magnetic Field Strength

The Sun’s current low level of activity starts from the low level of solar polar magnetic field strength at the 23/24 minimum. This was half the level at the previous minimum, and Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be just under half the amplitude of Solar Cycle 23.






[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 2.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 2: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle

It is said that solar minimum isn’t reached until the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle has flattened. While the month of minimum for the 23/24 transition is considered to be December 2008, the heliospheric current sheet didn’t flatten until June 2009


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 3.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 3: Interplanetary Magnetic Field

The Interplanetary Magnetic Field remains very weak. It is almost back to the levels reached in previous solar minima.


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 4.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 4: Ap Index 1932 – 2010

The Ap Index remains under the levels of previous solar minima.


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 5.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 5: F10.7 Flux 1948 – 2010

The F10.7 Flux is a more accurate indicator of solar activity than the sunspot number. It remains low.


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 6.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 6: F10.7 Flux aligned on solar minima

In this figure, the F10.7 flux of the last six solar minima are aligned on the month of minimum, with the two years of decline to the minimum and three years of subsequent rise. The Solar Cycle 24 trajectory is much lower and flatter than the rises of the five previous cycles.


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 7.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 7: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 210

A weaker interplanetary magnetic field means more cosmic rays reach the inner planets of the solar system. The neutron count was higher this minimum than in the previous record. Thanks to the correlation between the F10.7 Flux and the neutron count in Figure 8 following, we now have a target for the Oulu neutron count at Solar Cycle 24 maximum in late 2014 of 6,150.


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 8.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 8: Oulu Neutron Flux plotted against lagged F10.7 flux

Neutron count tends to peak one year after solar minimum. Figure 8 was created by plotting Oulu neutron count against the F10.7 flux lagged by one year. The relationship demonstrated by this graph indicates that the most likely value for the Oulu neutron count at the Solar Cycle 24 maximum expected to be a F10.7 flux value of 100 in late 2014 will be 6,150.


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 9.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 9: Solar Cycle 24 compared to Solar Cycle 5

I predicted in a paper published in March 2006 that Solar Cycles 24 and 25 would repeat the experience of the Dalton Minimum. With two years of Solar Cycle 24 data in hand, the trajectory established is repeating the rise of Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum. The prediction is confirmed. Like Solar Cycles 5 and 6, Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be 12 years long. Solar maximum will be in late 2014/early 2015.


[IMG]http://solarcycle25.com/attachments/ftp/Archi 10.jpg[/IMG]


Figure 10: North America Snow Cover Ex-Greenland

The northern hemisphere is experiencing its fourth consecutive cold winter. The current winter is one of the coldest for a hundred years or more. For cold winters to provide positive feedback, snow cover has to survive from one winter to the next so that snow’s higher albedo relative to bare rock will reflect sunlight into space, causing cooler summers. The month of snow cover minimum is most often August, sometimes July. We have to wait another eight months to find out how this winter went in terms of retained snow cover.

The 1970s cooling period had much higher snow cover minima than the last thirty years. Despite the last few cold winters, there was no increase in the snow cover minima. The snow cover minimum may have to get to over two million square kilometres before it starts having a significant effect.

David Archibald

December 2010