The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

thetonynator

excuse my ignorance, but how long does one rotation of the sun take??

M.T. Cranium

About 25-26 days ... relative to a fixed point, so it takes more like 27-28 for the spots to move back to the central meridian as seen from the earth which has moved 7% of its orbital cycle forward in that time. Higher latitudes may rotate slower than this from the evidence of the few spots that form there. The Sun is also inclined by 7 degrees to our orbital plane so we see more of its south pole at this time of year, more of its north pole in the spring. And it rotates in the same direction as the planets orbit, so from left to right as we see it at south transit each day around 1 p.m. ... the sunspots have magnetic polarity that runs at right angles to our field of view, if you see a cluster of large and small spots, the magnetic field in them is usually across the cluster from east to west or vice versa. This polarity reverses each cycle and this is known as the Hale cycle of alternating polarity (which is the basis for a complex 22-year cycle of two 11-year cycles). We have only been aware of this since about 1907, so we have little data about magnetic polarity in weak cycles that are not regular in length. Perhaps the Hale cycle has variations then (as in the Maunder and Dalton minima). We just don't really know.

thetonynator

Thanks for that M.T.

Duiske

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing I have noticed is that the same clump of spots have been crossing the visible disc for that last two or three solar rotations, so we can expect some "new" spots to come over the horizon in a couple of days.

Dolan, are you psychic ?

Old sunspot 1100 is returning after a two-week transit around the far side of the sun. It will probably be re-numbered "1106" by NOAA later today

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/09/say-goodbye-to-sunspots.html

Scientists studying sunspots for the past 2 decades have concluded that the magnetic field that triggers their formation has been steadily declining. If the current trend continues, by 2016 the sun's face may become spotless and remain that way for decades—a phenomenon that in the 17th century coincided with a prolonged period of cooling on Earth.
Sunspots appear when upwellings of the sun's magnetic field trap ionized plasma—or electrically charged, superheated gas—on the surface. Normally, the gas would release its heat and sink back below the surface, but the magnetic field inhibits this process. From Earth, the relatively cool surface gas looks like a dark blemish on the sun.

Stolen from the winter prediction thread.

Anyway the Maundar minimum (if that's what predicted) will take some time for the effects to be really noticed. After all if you are boiling water on the stove, it doesn't stop the instant you reduce the gas - it takes a few seconds, the mass of the planet's surface & water will take a decade to really start cooling.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=7122

Many things can change temperatures on Earth: a volcano erupts, swathing the Earth with bright haze that blocks sunlight, and temperatures drop; greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, and temperatures climb. From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today.
The impact of the solar minimum is clear in this image, which shows the temperature difference between 1680, a year at the center of the Maunder Minimum, and 1780, a year of normal solar activity, as calculated by a general circulation model. Deep blue across eastern and central North America and northern Eurasia illustrates where the drop in temperature was the greatest. Nearly all other land areas were also cooler in 1680, as indicated by the varying shades of blue. The few regions that appear to have been warmer in 1680 are Alaska and the eastern Pacific Ocean (left), the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland (left of center), and north of Iceland (top center).

riffmongous

I'm not sure if its been mentioned already but I just saw this and it may be of interest to some, a lecture in Trinity on solar variability and climate

https://www.ria.ie/our-work/committees/committees-for-science/astronomy-and-space-sciences-committee/public-lecture--solar-variability-and-influences-o.aspx

Redsunset

http://itsrainmakingtime.com/2009/climate-part1/

Play the 2 hour interview under the introduction.

Was posted last year but has lots of info that will answer lots of your questions.

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

http://itsrainmakingtime.com/2009/climate-part1/

Play the 2 hour interview under the introduction.

Was posted last year but has lots of info that will answer lots of your questions.

Thanks for that Redsunset. Will make for interesting listening tomorrow morning. The little drum & bass intro is a little crazy though!

TheInquisitor

Not sure if this is the right place to post this or not but its an interesting link from Joe Bastardi

http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/21/a-light-in-siberia/

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

http://itsrainmakingtime.com/2009/climate-part1/

Play the 2 hour interview under the introduction.

Was posted last year but has lots of info that will answer lots of your questions.

Very interesting interview ( I listened to it thrice!) I think it could have been a bit more balanced but all in all very enlightening.

One aspect that was mentioned and one I that has always been a bug bear of mine is how pro-warmists automatically label those who are not in total agreement with them as 'right-wing' or 'conservative', and, as the interviewee noted, that brings with it all 'the holocaust denier implications'.
In other words, cheap labeling.

Another interesting point was how climatologists who did not agree with mainstream thinking on AGW were ostracised by the science community and in some cases, sacked by the Government department who employed them.

maquiladora

Not sure if this has been posted here already?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34242705/

WolfeIRE

Sunspots 1108 and 1109 have grown so large, they can now be seen without the amplification of a solar telescope. NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of an M-flare from one of these behemoths in the next 24 hours

isle of man

And is an M flare something to get excited about

Redsunset

Not really but just so you know,there are three categories of flares,
X-class, M-class and C-class.

The largest, X-class flares are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

M-class flares are medium-sized, capable of causing brief radio blackouts that affect Earth's polar regions.

And C-class are minor.

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of an M-flare from one of these behemoths in the next 24 hours

Sunspot 1108 is slowly decaying and poses a diminishing threat for solar flares - update

Redsunset

Long-term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields

Matthew J. Penn
and

William Livingston


http://www.noao.edu/staff/mpenn/PennLivingston_preprint.pdf

A few extracts from the paper and though it does discuss plenty of data (but not all) ,it is interesting (WELL TO ME ANYWAY) and is an ongoing observation.


EXTRACT

In 2006 Penn & Livingston had a time series of this magnetic field data showing a
decrease in the umbral magnetic field strength which was independent of the normal sunspot cycle.

Also, the measurements revealed a threshold magnetic field strength of about 1500 Gauss, below
which no dark pores formed.

A linear extrapolation of the magnetic field trend suggested that the mean field strength would reach this threshold 1500 Gauss value in the year 2017.

Furthermore,analysis of the umbral continuum brightness showed another linear trend, and extrapolation showed
the umbral brightness would be equal to the quiet Sun brightness at about the same year. Finally,
the molecular line depths showed a decreasing strength with time, and again the trend suggested

that molecular absorption lines would disappear from the average sunspot umbra near 2017.

extract

If Cycle 24 has started, we are in the rise phase of the cycle; but where exactly in the cycle

are we located?

June 2010 in Cycle 24 corresponds with February 1998 in Cycle 23.

It is instructive to examine the monthly sunspot numbers for those two months; for February 1998 that

value was 40, and for June 2010 that value was 13.


extract

It is important to note that both sunspots and pores are included in this plot. Pores, lacking
penumbra, often have magnetic fields less than 2000 Gauss, but always have magnetic fields stronger
than 1500 Gauss.

Secondly, the intercept of the mean magnetic field strength with this 1500 Gauss
threshold does not imply that all sunspots will disappear by the year 2021; rather it implies that
half of the sunspots which would normally appear on the surface of the Sun would be visible.

Finally, the plot doesn’t address the other magnetic fields on the Sun where field strengths are
lower than 1500 Gauss; the temporal behavior of solar active network or quiet Sun magnetic fields

may be different from the behavior shown by sunspots.

---

Meanwhile back at the ranch,

Nothing to hectic with the sun,yes its not as quiet but this is expected as it slowly ramps up.

And thats the thing,it should be alot more active at this point.

Its a bit like the alarm going off when you have a hangover and don't make work and say ah feck it i make it up some other day.

@redsunset

@redsunset, that seems to tie in with the report I linked to further up

Just found another Maunder prediction from last year, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/more-maunder-than-dalton/

Redsunset

Cheers and thanks for refreshing that point, had it on page 3 post 33 last year.

WolfeIRE

NICE IMAGE OF ARTIC SEA ICE


Comparitive images for 2010 and 2007
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

Redsunset

Very encouraging to see the ice alot healthier this weather.

Considering the arctic was much warmer last winter.

I feel she's slowly gathering her troops together in preparation for a mass advance on our towns and villages.

All hail the ICE QUEEN.

For the tide is turning and she shall once again become victorious.:D

WolfeIRE

redsunset wrote: »

I feel she's slowly gathering her troops together in preparation for a mass advance on our towns and villages.

All hail the ICE QUEEN.

For the tide is turning and she shall once again become victorious.:D

Redsunset

I'll show you an example of how far we've come with technology as to when sunspots was first noticed.

Would be easy to miss some years ago and thats why i feel we would be even more on a par with missing sunspot periods.



High resolution image.









How it would of appeared to astronomer Rudolf Wolf in 1848 , inventor of the Wolf number that allows the estimation of solar activity on the number and complexity of the Regions active on the observable photosphere in white light.

There is no doubt that certain spots are not visible with telescopes in low resolution.

At a wavelength of 656.28 nanometers (nm ) there is the most important element hydrogen ( H). Since this was the first line mapped in the solar spectrum , was given the name of the Hydrogen - Alpha ( H -alpha). Going deep purple, there is another important emission line , the Calcium- K (CAK ) at a wavelength of 393.3 nm.

These two lines alone allow us to get information on most of the really important phenomena that occur in the Sun : prominences , the structures that surround sunspots ( faculae ), the granularity , flares , and many others. Since the element that represents a greater extent the sun and hydrogen , the most important of these lines and that its H- alpha." .

But most of the surveys until the '20s did not have this technology, prominences , flares and granularity remained difficult to observe .

In fact if you look at the Sun through a telescope with H-alpha filter you see things that the old astronomers just could not see and almost all large telescopes now have this type of filtering.

Even the image of the Continuum of SOHO uses a filter that shows a lot more than normal filters for white light.

The MDI ( Michelson Doppler Imager ) , SOHO has images taken near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line . At this length the more prominent features are the sunspots, but we also have something more, like some steam that are not completely visible from the ground with the normal filters for white light.



Im just making a point thats all.

Quick question, How dows the "fiddle factor" work to allow comparing like for like?

Are there still people out there using the traditional methods to maintain the records to enable accurate trending to be done. Otherwise as you say the readings will be higher than they should be.

Redsunset

Oh the fiddle factor,ummmm.

That why i posted earlier bout how they were counting them and so on

As regard old style,

Here's a link for you ,i hope you have translater on your pc.

http://www.palazzosomeda.it/Osservatorio/Databaseimmagini.htm

Abstract
With the development of instruments for observing the Sun, the data obtained are hardly comparable to those of past centuries now on the number of sunspots on the surface of the Sun

This leads to an overestimation of the spots observed that no longer makes the data comparable with those of the past today for a better understanding of the current solar behavior .

The purpose of this database is to make it comparable to the current observations on the number of sunspots present on the photosphere with those performed with an optical telescope of the beginning of the last century , including in relation to a calculation of the number of Wolf's more correct.

For this reason it is used to photograph a telescope at low resolution that is comparable to those used more than a century ago for the observations ( telescope No. 1).

The images are not treated with the computer, but are original.

Redsunset

Great vid on Svensmark's Theory.

Danish Professor Henrik Svensmark explaining the link between cosmic rays the solar magnetic field and cloud cover influencing climate on Earth.

http://vimeo.com/14356185

Redsunset

There are no sunspots on the Earth-facing side of the sun.




Sunspot number: 0


Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days


However the far side experienced a CME and will not effect us.

Redsunset

Stunning image taken last tuesday,




Sunspot 1112 is rooting a large magnetic filament to the surface of the sun. If it explodes, the filament could erupt as well.

nacho libre

if we believe increased solar activity is bad news for us cold and snow lovers, then Ken Ring maybe right about this winter being a mild one:(

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

if we believe increased solar activity is bad news for us cold and snow lovers, then Ken Ring maybe right about this winter being a mild one:(

It hardly has an instant effect though, its probably solar activity in the last few months that will have an effect.

nacho libre

thetonynator wrote: »

It hardly has an instant effect though, its probably solar activity in the last few months that will have an effect.

Let's hope so anyway.