Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

neutral guy · 16-07-2020 5:36pm

Lets look how house prices and rents started rising
The banks simply closed the mortgage tap
People could not take mortgages and started renting
The property shortage on rent market started rising rents prices up
The property for rents shortage started lifting houses prices up
The government supported rising prices paying rent supplements and HAPs because NAMA got plenty property which had sell it or rent it.
Because banks were government got part had plenty property as well
The only thing the government for it wasted OUR ( tax payers money ) not the own.
What did we got from it ? Nothing except sky high rents and bubble on rent market
What gonna happen next ? The another Eastern Europe does not exist and no jobs for people outside EU.
Will this affect REIT ? The REIT simply will buy less houses,people will not get mortgages and will continue renting the government will continue support REIT trough HAP because if REIT will stop buy houses the builders will stop build houses.
Will rent prices falling ? Yes,because many people will lose jobs same as in 2008 and will go home
Will property prices falling ? Yes,because people will not have jobs and will not get mortgages and paying rents having low incomes they will never save money for deposit.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 5:37pm

brisan wrote: »

How many people on 205 euro a week are going to pay 2k a month for a REIT property
If people have no jobs , no money ,no access to credit what will the REITS do
Leave them empty ?,reduce rents? ,not buy any more because the demand is not there .?
Sell them off as Gannon is doing in the Casino in Malahide ??

People who are still working will still be in the market to buy some will have increased savings over the covid period due to reduced costs and not being able to spend.

Most jobs lost will be from businesses closing down and those closed down businesses/commercial spaces will be bought and new enterprises will spring up. We have had people on 350 a week for about 2 months now and demand is still there.

If people cant leave the country where do they live?

REITS give a lot of properties to the government for the homeless/housing list at 85% of the current rent for 10 to 25 years. They don't even have to bother with the upkeep of the property as the government does this for them.

So in your Armageddon scenario even do the average Joe who has been working and now finds himself unemployed can no longer afford to buy a house Joe can now go on the housing list increasing the demand for a property that way.

As I say its all about supply and demand and moving people who were once working and a saving and looking for a mortgage on to the housing list looking to be housed by the government who in turn get REITS to supply them with property.

where is there a decrease in demand in your scenario??

Iceman29 · 16-07-2020 5:37pm

The_Brood wrote: »

What are the chances the economy will go into a big recession, severely impacting house prices within the next 6-9 months?

It's inevitable, the damage has been done already. its just about when its really going to show on house prices now.

brisan · 16-07-2020 5:42pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Lucky him! Valuer, saved him paying 35k over fair value

I think the bank were more worried about what the house would be worth next year rather than its value now.
He was only 1500 euro more than the next highest bidder
Has anybody else details of a bank not valuing a house at the sale agreed price .
First time I have heard of it in 38 years of buying and selling

SozBbz · 16-07-2020 5:47pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Lucky him! Valuer, saved him paying 35k over fair value

Not necessarily. We don't know his circumstances.

All we know is he had to walk away because of it. He might find better value elsewhere, he might not. He might end up paying loads more in rent or run out of mortgage approval before he finds something else.

Sounds like there were other bidders who thought it was worth roughtly the same amount.

Cantstandsya · 16-07-2020 5:47pm

brisan wrote: »

I think the bank were more worried about what the house would be worth next year rather than its value now.
He was only 1500 euro more than the next highest bidder
Has anybody else details of a bank not valuing a house at the sale agreed price .
First time I have heard of it in 38 years of buying and selling

I'm sure it's just an anomaly and nothing to do with the current situation we're in.

Someone should have told the bank that the REITs will just buy everything so prices can't go down.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 5:48pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

I'm sure it's just an anomaly and nothing to do with the current situation we're in.

Someone should have told the bank that the REITs will just buy everything so prices can't go down.

Maybe not everything but they are snapping up a lot of the new builds

SozBbz · 16-07-2020 5:48pm

brisan wrote: »

I think the bank were more worried about what the house would be worth next year rather than its value now.
He was only 1500 euro more than the next highest bidder
Has anybody else details of a bank not valuing a house at the sale agreed price .
First time I have heard of it in 38 years of buying and selling

Happened to a friend of mine when buying in the UK about 12 months ago. AFAIK the different between the sale agreed price and the valuation was £15k, and the vendor accepted the lower price as they apparently really wanted to move for personal reasons.

That was on a property in Manchester and the bank apparently cited Brexit as a reason for their conservative valuation.

I've never heard of or seen it myself in Ireland.

neutral guy · 16-07-2020 5:54pm

We did not have property shortage because houses were not build
We had property shortage just because coockoo and short term landlords was hoovering property on market
Now we dont will have this problems because as Independent wrote today

Students returning to their parents and some foreign workers going home meant a fall in demand for accommodation. There is also some anecdotal evidence of properties that were being offered for short-term hire through the likes of Airbnb have been offered for rent instead, increasing supply.

Supply already rising and people already lose jobs
So answer is one Plenty property on market with no buyers on it = Price down !

And process STARTED !

brisan · 16-07-2020 5:54pm

fliball123 wrote: »

People who are still working will still be in the market to buy some will have increased savings over the covid period due to reduced costs and not being able to spend.

Most jobs lost will be from businesses closing down and those closed down businesses/commercial spaces will be bought and new enterprises will spring up. We have had people on 350 a week for about 2 months now and demand is still there.

If people cant leave the country where do they live?

REITS give a lot of properties to the government for the homeless/housing list at 85% of the current rent for 10 to 25 years. They don't even have to bother with the upkeep of the property as the government does this for them.

So in your Armageddon scenario even do the average Joe who has been working and now finds himself unemployed can no longer afford to buy a house Joe can now go on the housing list increasing the demand for a property that way.

As I say its all about supply and demand and moving people who were once working and a saving and looking for a mortgage on to the housing list looking to be housed by the government who in turn get REITS to supply them with property.

where is there a decrease in demand in your scenario??

The unemployment rate will shock you come the end of the year
High street retail,Hotel trade,tourist industry,bar and restaurant business are all on their knees until a vaccine is found

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 6:00pm

brisan wrote: »

The unemployment rate will shock you come the end of the year
High street retail,Hotel trade,tourist industry,bar and restaurant business are all on their knees until a vaccine is found

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

neutral guy · 16-07-2020 6:01pm

Guys,EVERY single person who has wage subsidy and job are unemployed already !
He has job Just Because government pay him wage !
The number of people who getting Covid payment are "falling" just because people leaving Covid payment and go work for Covid wage subsidy or go home to countries they came from!
The only difference at the moment between unemployed and working persons that people are working getting "social welfare" when before they was seating at home.

Cantstandsya · 16-07-2020 6:11pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

This is amazing logic. I'm convinced.

brisan · 16-07-2020 6:29pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

Demand is only demand if the finances are there to buy the product.

hometruths · 16-07-2020 6:50pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

Essentially you are saying unemployment rates are irrelevant to property prices because overall demand for housing remains the same?

I have heard some real nonsense on this thread but I think this takes the biscuit.

Hubertj · 16-07-2020 7:10pm

brisan wrote: »

I think the bank were more worried about what the house would be worth next year rather than its value now.
He was only 1500 euro more than the next highest bidder
Has anybody else details of a bank not valuing a house at the sale agreed price .
First time I have heard of it in 38 years of buying and selling

there was something in 1 of the papers in May or June. What % did the banks valuation differ from the offer price and sale agreed price?

Hubertj · 16-07-2020 7:18pm

neutral guy wrote: »

Guys,EVERY single person who has wage subsidy and job are unemployed already !
He has job Just Because government pay him wage !
The number of people who getting Covid payment are "falling" just because people leaving Covid payment and go work for Covid wage subsidy or go home to countries they came from!
The only difference at the moment between unemployed and working persons that people are working getting "social welfare" when before they was seating at home.

You really don't understand this at all. Tried to explain last week but obviously didn't get through to you.

mcsean2163 · 16-07-2020 7:43pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I agree with all of that but how much of that stops REITS and global investors looking for a return on their money from buying? What stops people who are still working from buying? People still need somewhere to live what is the alternative to buying?

Buying cheaper and further away from where you want
Renting - sometimes paying more than a mortgage
moving back in what mam and dad (not really an option for a couple with a few nippers)

As I said this is a different beast and while you rightly point to what will affect demand as in driving it down . other things will drive it up and will also decrease supply as in:

No option for emigration
Houses currently being built are at a very slow rate and a high % being snapped up off the plans by REITS
Current stock of supply is p1ss poor anything half decent is being snapped up
From 2007 to 2020 a lot more people to house as the population has increased year on year
Family homes are protected meaning very few evictions.
Government cannot afford to build houses they cant afford the current expenditure sure we only started breaking even last year before this happened.
Banks have already had strict lending practices the last decade they have been a lot more prudent in their lending.

Like there are a lot of what ifs, and the biggest factor will be a cure for the virus and every top scientist in the world is working on solving this with billions being pumped into finding a cure.

Who knows all I know is currently if I was putting my gaff up I would want what it is worth before Covid if I got an offer of less I would say "thanks" but "no thanks"

If global reits don't get rent because everyone is unemployed they will become insolvent.

We've been looking and prices have already dropped.

The tourism sector has been decimated, once the pup runs out, where will the non nationals go? Probably home if they can. Airbnb dead in Dublin, lots more rental stock there etc. Median age in Europe has increased by 5 years in the last 20 years from 37 to 42

Market will probably fall by 40%+. I would say if you get pre covid19 prices anytime in the next two years you're doing extremely well.

The price of houses especially in Dublin is absolutely crazy. If you're insisting on pre covid19 prices in Dublin, I suggest you ring around to find someone you can trust.

Then again, who knows, maybe people will decide covid19 is not worth the hassle and we'll have the v shaped recovery.

awec · 16-07-2020 7:47pm

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

If the government start buying up existing properties then this will prop up prices, or at least raise the floor of potential drops. If they go on a spending spree of new houses this may help drop prices, but comes with other risks.

brisan · 16-07-2020 7:51pm

awec wrote: »

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

They will have to build new
If they continue to buy that will keep prices up and force more private buyers out of the market.
Commercial property building should slow or stop shortly and that will free up labour.
My hope is that the government supply the land and put the building of houses out to tender
Both social and private housing

mcsean2163 · 16-07-2020 8:03pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

Why do you think there's a homelessness problem in Ireland? The government will not hand over 4,000 a month to a REIT because someone becomes unemployed. They won't do it, they've been happy to leave families in temporary housing/ hotels etc., Do you really think they'll suddenly pay top dollar for accommodation for unemployed people?

brisan · 16-07-2020 8:03pm

awec wrote: »

I think they'll end up doing a mix of both, but they'll want to be careful about big social housing projects that end up as repeats of the ghettos they built in the past.

I don't think the government will want to get into the business of building private housing.

I agree with the ghettos
As to private housing they will have to build affordable housing that they will make a small profit on for 2 reasons
Keep builders working and not on SW
Secondly to allow people to buy their own home
They may give builders the land with strict conditions on size quality and price of the finished product
Its in everybody's interest to build houses.

If the private market cannot supply houses at an affordable price the Government has to step in .
This would also drive down rents and second hand house prices
The housing crisis has not gone away and SF and the next election are only around the corner
SF would be in Government now if they had not misread the last election and FF-FG know this

Hubertj · 16-07-2020 8:04pm

brisan wrote: »

They will have to build new
If they continue to buy that will keep prices up and force more private buyers out of the market.
Commercial property building should slow or stop shortly and that will free up labour.
My hope is that the government supply the land and put the building of houses out to tender
Both social and private housing

I think this makes sense. My concern is how long this will take and I have little faith in any government department or council properly managing procurement and costs.
Short term there seems to be a big need or social/adorable housing etc so they may need to buy existing stock as well as build.

brisan · 16-07-2020 8:16pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I think this makes sense. My concern is how long this will take and I have little faith in any government department or council properly managing procurement and costs.
Short term there seems to be a big need or social/adorable housing etc so they may need to buy existing stock as well as build.

As I said in previous posts the spectre of SF and the next election will focus the minds of FF-FG,
I agree about Gov dept. being capable but builders have well documented the cost of building a house
If they are given the land and cheap finance then the price of a new build should come down considerably .
A builder would rather be making some money than have all his labour and plant and machinery lying idle
He may not make the same outrageous profits but he will make some

Hubertj · 16-07-2020 8:21pm

brisan wrote: »

As I said in previous posts the spectre of SF and the next election will focus the minds of FF-FG,
I agree about Gov dept. being capable but builders have well documented the cost of building a house
If they are given the land and cheap finance then the price of a new build should come down considerably .
A builder would rather be making some money than have all his labour and plant and machinery lying idle
He may not make the same outrageous profits but he will make some

100% agree with you. I just have 0 faith in government departments. Whatever about an election, the inability/incompetence of government depts won't change with SF in power.
In addition, how long will it take them to plan it before workers get on site? And how long does it take to build an estate of lets say 400 units? (i know nothing about this stuff). Must be a lead time of years?

brisan · 16-07-2020 8:26pm

Hubertj wrote: »

100% agree with you. I just have 0 faith in government departments. Whatever about an election, the inability/incompetence of government depts won't change with SF in power.
In addition, how long will it take them to plan it before workers get on site? And how long does it take to build an estate of lets say 400 units? (i know nothing about this stuff). Must be a lead time of years?

You would be amazed at how quick a builder can get things done when the incentive is there
I have seen things move at quite a speed when the builder was told the PP would not automatically be renewed but he would have to apply all over again
This was 8 apartments on an infill site.
Had ground works finished within 2 weeks
House demolished and site cleared

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:31pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

This is amazing logic. I'm convinced.

Where do you see the flaw? The simple basic principal of price is supply vs demand shifting how the demand side from one queue to the next does not reduce demand.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:33pm

brisan wrote: »

Demand is only demand if the finances are there to buy the product.

as I say REITS are snapping up everything they hardly need much financing as I say they will be guaranteed 85% of the existing loan rate in this country for 10 to 25 years. So its almost self financing over a long period

brisan · 16-07-2020 8:34pm

fliball123 wrote: »

as I say REITS are snapping up everything they hardly need much financing as I say they will be guaranteed 85% of the existing loan rate in this country for 10 to 25 years. So its almost self financing over a long period

That wont last as the Government are up to their neck in debt and SF breathing down their necks.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:35pm

schmittel wrote: »

Essentially you are saying unemployment rates are irrelevant to property prices because overall demand for housing remains the same?

I have heard some real nonsense on this thread but I think this takes the biscuit.

I am not saying that I am saying that the demand side of things are not going to dwindle as much as people think due unemployment. This country is left leaning everyone is expecting to be housed good, bad, poor and rich. There is a waiting list of over 100k people on the housing waiting list waiting for a house , these guys dont need mortgages they will get help from the government and the government turn to the likes of REITS to get property at a supposed 15% discount of the current actual rent.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:38pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

If global reits don't get rent because everyone is unemployed they will become insolvent.

We've been looking and prices have already dropped.

The tourism sector has been decimated, once the pup runs out, where will the non nationals go? Probably home if they can. Airbnb dead in Dublin, lots more rental stock there etc. Median age in Europe has increased by 5 years in the last 20 years from 37 to 42

Market will probably fall by 40%+. I would say if you get pre covid19 prices anytime in the next two years you're doing extremely well.

The price of houses especially in Dublin is absolutely crazy. If you're insisting on pre covid19 prices in Dublin, I suggest you ring around to find someone you can trust.

Then again, who knows, maybe people will decide covid19 is not worth the hassle and we'll have the v shaped recovery.

I have already stated that the government are paying a lot of money to REITS to house our poor and those who have no housing. there are schemes in place by the government that offer you 85% of the current rent to lease out you house for social housing.

Your saying people are going to leave unfortunately the same conditions are in every countries its like going from the frying pan into the fire.

Wanderer78 · 16-07-2020 8:40pm

brisan wrote:

That wont last as the Government are up to their neck in debt and SF breathing down their necks.

Large amounts of public debt has rarely caused issues, large accumulations of private debt on the other hand has caused a lot, debt is a critical component of the money supply, without it, we d have no money, but this does need to be carefully dealt with

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:40pm

awec wrote: »

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

If the government start buying up existing properties then this will prop up prices, or at least raise the floor of potential drops. If they go on a spending spree of new houses this may help drop prices, but comes with other risks.

They wont buy them they will enter into the 10 to 25 year rent agreements at the 85% discount. This is being fleeced by REITS and other professional renters. They dont even have to deal with fixing up the property that tenants do damage to , the government have to deal with it.

brisan · 16-07-2020 8:41pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not saying that I am saying that the demand side of things are not going to dwindle as much as people think due unemployment. This country is left leaning everyone is expecting to be housed good, bad, poor and rich. There is a waiting list of over 100k people on the housing waiting list waiting for a house , these guys dont need mortgages they will get help from the government and the government turn to the likes of REITS to get property at a supposed 15% discount of the current actual rent.

Maybe the Government will take out a 25 yr mortgage at 0.1% with the ECB and build their own .
They have said they are committed to building both social and affordable housing and SF will hold them to that
Last chance saloon for the big 2
People dont vote for lads whose families fought in the civil war any more

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:41pm

awec wrote: »

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

If the government start buying up existing properties then this will prop up prices, or at least raise the floor of potential drops. If they go on a spending spree of new houses this may help drop prices, but comes with other risks.

They wont buy them they will enter into the 10 to 25 year rent agreements at the 85% discount. This is being fleeced by REITS and other professional renters. They dont even have to deal with fixing up the property that tenants do damage to , the government have to deal with it.

brisan · 16-07-2020 8:42pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Large amounts of public debt has rarely caused issues, large accumulations of private debt on the other hand has caused a lot, debt is a critical component of the money supply, without it, we d have no money, but this does need to be carefully dealt with

2008-PRESENT would suggest otherwise

Wanderer78 · 16-07-2020 8:44pm

brisan wrote:

2008-PRESENT would suggest otherwise

Once again, the previous crash was caused by the rapid growth of private debt due to a building boom, it had little or nothing to do with public debt and public expenditure

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:54pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Why do you think there's a homelessness problem in Ireland? The government will not hand over 4,000 a month to a REIT because someone becomes unemployed. They won't do it, they've been happy to leave families in temporary housing/ hotels etc., Do you really think they'll suddenly pay top dollar for accommodation for unemployed people?

Maybe not 4k a month where are you living that 4k is 85% of your monthly rent are you living in leafy Foxrock or the top of Howth???

There is a direct lease agreement that allows a landlord give the property to the gov and they can rent it to anyone they want remember now on the other side the renter will be subsidized by things like HAP, rent allowance, etc.

People can offset repairs, and full interest on any mortgage on the house against tax etc.

Have a look here

https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/repair_leasing_faqs_for_website.pdf

They are actively trying to buy aswell
http://www.dublincity.ie/housing-and-community-i-own-my-home-section-rent-or-sell-your-property/sell-your-property-us

look I am not saying its right or wrong. I think property prices will come down a small %, my main point is that unemployment may not be the big factor that people think it will be when it comes to demand. As in if I need a place to stay being employed or not employed does not change the fact that I need somewhere to stay and with this countries left leaning outlook your more than likely going to get help to get housed.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:55pm

brisan wrote: »

As I said in previous posts the spectre of SF and the next election will focus the minds of FF-FG,
I agree about Gov dept. being capable but builders have well documented the cost of building a house
If they are given the land and cheap finance then the price of a new build should come down considerably .
A builder would rather be making some money than have all his labour and plant and machinery lying idle
He may not make the same outrageous profits but he will make some

next election is 5 years away lets all hope that Covid is no longer an issue by then

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 8:57pm

brisan wrote: »

That wont last as the Government are up to their neck in debt and SF breathing down their necks.

So what do we do with the homeless give them a tent and say good luck any government doing that would be lambasted.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 9:02pm

brisan wrote: »

Maybe the Government will take out a 25 yr mortgage at 0.1% with the ECB and build their own .
They have said they are committed to building both social and affordable housing and SF will hold them to that
Last chance saloon for the big 2
People dont vote for lads whose families fought in the civil war any more

I cant see them getting the amount needed to sort out the housing issues its easily in the 10s of bilions and .1% I think it would be a slight bit more. I think its a good idea but will they do it?

The only issue I have with SF is their figures are plucked from no where they have never costed any of their plans and have also been found out up the north for rolling back on promises. So I dont think they will be any better. Over all more accountability needs to be shone on any party entering government and if they have a list of a top 10 policies they want to implement in the 5 years they have , they should have their pensions reduced by 10% for each policy they didnt get through. The only way to hurt a politician is in the pocket

MrMusician18 · 16-07-2020 9:08pm

fliball123 wrote: »

So what do we do with the homeless give them a tent and say good luck any government doing that would be lambasted.

Homelessness is not a housing issue and wasn't one until it was cleverly bundled by assorted NGOs into the affordability issue affecting wider society.

Homelessness is largely a substance abuse problem, and it's long been around. Once affordability is resolved (and a deep recession is likely to "solve" it), it will be forgotten about - as it always was. I'm not saying this is right, but it's almost certainly what will happen: our society didn't suddenly become more caring in the last 10 years.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 9:12pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Homelessness is not a housing issue and wasn't one until it was cleverly bundled by assorted NGOs into the affordability issue affecting wider society.

Homelessness is largely a substance abuse problem, and it's already been around. Over affordability is resolved (and a deep recession is likely to "solve" it), it will be forgotten about - as it always was. I'm not saying this is right, but it's almost certainly what will happen: our society didn't suddenly become more caring in the last 10 years.

OK well you go and tell Mary on the housing list that she has to take the house that is vacant down in the back a$$ of Leitrim and they cant get a house in Dublin.

So the 100k or so people on the housing list all have substance abuse problems?

Deub · 16-07-2020 9:14pm

I don’t see a government thinking that handing a lot more tax money to REITs which don’t pay tax is a great idea.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 9:15pm

Deub wrote: »

I don’t see a government thinking that handing a lot more tax money to REITs which don’t pay tax is a great idea.

But that is what they are doing this scheme and it is free for anyone to use. Like I said I am not saying its right but its what is happening

brisan · 16-07-2020 9:15pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I cant see them getting the amount needed to sort out the housing issues its easily in the 10s of bilions and .1% I think it would be a slight bit more. I think its a good idea but will they do it?

The only issue I have with SF is their figures are plucked from no where they have never costed any of their plans and have also been found out up the north for rolling back on promises. So I dont think they will be any better. Over all more accountability needs to be shone on any party entering government and if they have a list of a top 10 policies they want to implement in the 5 years they have , they should have their pensions reduced by 10% for each policy they didnt get through. The only way to hurt a politician is in the pocket

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/state-raises-750m-at-negative-rate-of-0-51-1.4306061#:~:text=The%20State's%20debt%20management%20agency,repaid%20less%20than%20they%20lend.&text=The%20bills%20offer%20investors%20an,take%20many%20years%20to%20mature.

I never said SF will do any better,but if this Government dont do something drastic the under 40 vote will give SF a chance to show what they can do in the next election

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 9:17pm

brisan wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/state-raises-750m-at-negative-rate-of-0-51-1.4306061#:~:text=The%20State's%20debt%20management%20agency,repaid%20less%20than%20they%20lend.&text=The%20bills%20offer%20investors%20an,take%20many%20years%20to%20mature.

I never said SF will do any better,but if this Government dont do something drastic the under 40 vote will give SF a chance to show what they can do in the next election

Maybe, I Just have no confidence in any political party their main aim is power, money and to be able to relax at retirement age.

brisan · 16-07-2020 9:18pm

fliball123 wrote: »

OK well you go and tell Mary on the housing list that she has to take the house that is vacant down in the back a$$ of Leitrim and they cant get a house in Dublin.

So the 100k or so people on the housing list all have substance abuse problems?

Very few on the housing list are actually homeless
You do realize that don't you

Deub · 16-07-2020 9:19pm

fliball123 wrote: »

But that is what they are doing this scheme is free for anyone to use. Like I said I am not saying its right but its what is happening

Now, yes because they can. The debt has decreased so it is fine. However if there is a recession meaning a decrease of tax collection, that will create problem. Working people wouldn’t take kindly seeing their tax going to companies not paying any.

brisan · 16-07-2020 9:24pm

Lets say the Government borrow a billion
At 250K a house (land and finance given free to builder ) thats 4000 houses
Sell those and rinse and repeat
Borrow 5 BILLION that's 20,000 HOUSES
Rinse and repeat
The land is there ,the PP could easily be there ,the infrastructure can be put in place,the finance is available and cheap.
Is the will to do it there
Are they prepared to let builders make only a living instead of a killing .that's the question
Are they prepared to upset the landlords and REITS by driving down rents and property prices ,who knows

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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