Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum · 02-02-2019 3:58pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Totally agree. The idea of "respecting the result of the vote" normally applies to general elections and referendums where things passed off smoothly and fairly and there was no hint of criminality or controversy (even if the result was not a very popular one).

The Brexit referendum is probably the most controversial and contested referendum result in European history, with strong suggestions of criminality, outside interference, not to mention the downright lies of the winning side and their numerous supporters in the media. The referendum was badly worded and was held on something that is proving to be virtually unimplementable.

Democracy seems to have been an early casualty with many of those who wanted Britain to stay in the EU.

ThePanjandrum · 02-02-2019 4:05pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Each and every sector should be diversifying away from Britain. They've shown that they are unable to govern themselves and to have a virulent streak of xenophobic eurosceptism. These flaws won't go away anytime soon so, wherever possible, businesses need to find new markets. Ditto importers. Britain is simply too unstable and directionless.

What you mean by "virulent streak of xenophobic euroscepticism" is that the United Kingdom wants to trade on fair terms with other countries in the EU and respects these nations but does not want to form a political union with them.

Some other countries which fought for independence seem anxious now to give their independence away. I find it difficult to follow the mental convolutions which must take place.

briany · 02-02-2019 4:07pm

"We must respect democracy by enacting the decision of the voters."

"We must respect democracy by allowing voters to change their minds."

Neither side has been able to convince the other that the above statements are objectively true. If the Russians interfered in the referendum, and, indeed, are continuing to troll the public debate, they'd have done quite well to inject this kind of subjectivism that effectively prevents any true public consensus.

Folkstonian · 02-02-2019 4:10pm

briany wrote: »

Let Nigel Farage don khakis and pick up a gun, as he has said. I suggest he will don a suit and pick up the Daily Telegraph instead, though.

Yep a foolish, possibly reckless comment from Farage.

We all know that obviously, obviously Nigel won’t be putting on a tin helmet and digging a foxhole in parliament square any time soon, but there are too many people out there who would be motivated by him blurting our drivel like that to don the yellow vests probably, and react to the vote being overturned by turning out on the streets to smash up shop windows and police cars.

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2019 4:15pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

What you mean by "virulent streak of xenophobic euroscepticism" is that the United Kingdom wants to trade on fair terms with other countries in the EU and respects these nations but does not want to form a political union with them.

Some other countries which fought for independence seem anxious now to give their independence away. I find it difficult to follow the mental convolutions which must take place.

Whether it was due to economic dependence on the UK, or simply following a policy of autarky, our fifty years of "absolute" independence left us the poorest nation in Western Europe, so whether or not Brexit would work for Britain, it certainly doesn't benefit our economic model.

CelticRambler · 02-02-2019 4:17pm

fash wrote: »

I suspect that 2016 (likely just before the brexit vote ) is not a good comparator... - nevertheless thanks for the more updated information.

Note to self: be careful what text to C&P as a link! As the linked document shows, the key word was nearby - comparing parts of the UK to parts of Germany, France, BeneLux, etc. It's interesting that people who cite this out-of-date, statistically dubious soundbite seem to still think that "Europe" and "the EU" is still the small band of brotherly nations that speak a variation of French, German or Scandianvian. A comparison with southern or eastern European regions would appear to be irrelevant in their minds.

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Also worth noting, the next 6 members to join the EU all have about half the GDP-PP of Germany, so might require some heavy inward investment and contributions.

Indeed. It's also worth noting (see whole-of-EU map in linked document) that southern Ireland (i.e. Munster-Leinster) is rated second highest in the whole of Europe (Luxembourg being the highest). The same chart rates NI as about the same as the Loire Valley, so it's not that bad ... but we've got posher châteaux. :P

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 4:21pm

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Interesting point from a PPower billboard ad for the visiting rugby fans:

"Welcome to the largest English speaking city in the EU"
(post-brexitious)

Could be useful marketing for language schools (well, assuming they're legit schools),
Valletta (1/2m) is probably 2nd, in terms of populaiton and ease of use/acceptance of English language.

Well Cork city is a tad larger than Valetta.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 4:23pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Gary Younge wrote a good article in the Guardian yesterday https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/poorer-brexiters-worse-off-working-class-leavers in some ways it was similar to an article in the paper some years ago by SE Smith which said that the liberal left should not assume that it knows better than the underprivileged what is good for them https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jul/19/stop-patronising-poor-americans

Such unexpected self-awareness by both of these journalists is all too rare.

Let's cast aside everything else for a moment and explore this. What have the 'underprivileged' voted for here, and why is it better for them?

nc6000 · 02-02-2019 4:32pm

Sky News are reporting Nissan have cancelled plans to build the X-Trail model in Sunderland.

briany · 02-02-2019 4:32pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

... but there are too many people out there who would be motivated by him blurting our drivel like that to don the yellow vests probably, and react to the vote being overturned by turning out on the streets to smash up shop windows and police cars.

Well, if Brexiteers were sensible, violent protest is the very thing they wouldn't do. At least not in a way that's on the offence. There will invariably be a number of them shown on the news, not only smashing shop windows, but helping themselves to the contents inside.

Having said that, I don't think it will escalate into widespread violence. I do think it will lead to Brexiteers using even more capital letters on their Twitter posts, if you can believe such a thing were possible.

CelticRambler · 02-02-2019 4:38pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think the future total lack of engagement in politics in Britain should parliament decide to backtrack will have profoundly negative consequences. People will stop voting. They’ll stop caring.

... and so Panjandrum's assertion is completely wrong: the Establishment will have won, crushing "the will of the people" by using that same slogan as a weapon against them.

In an earlier post, someone asked how the British (en masse) could accept a referendum result once it became known how utterly contaminated was the whole process. I see a direct parallel with what's going on in the US. We see and hear Donald Trump blatantly lying, even contradicting his own position on any given topic. His core supporters refuse to believe that he is anything other than America's Saviour, but there's also a huge "middle ground" of disengaged voters who are ready to suffer whatever pain it takes to Make America Great Again, because ... well, will of the people and all that?

MAGA and Brexit are two variations of the same religious sect. Some commentators have suggested that Britain will become "like France" if Parliament cuts a deal with the EU. I doubt it. The French (as a whole) are very much more engaged with politics, and do care about the way their country is run. Seeing the "Dunkirk Spirit" being vaunted on the news today in respect of motorists stranded in the snow, I doubt very much that many Brits will start burning tyres on every roundabout on March 30th.

(Can't help thinking that those stranded motorists are a good metaphor for Brexit - they had plenty of warnings, by experts; they had (access to) all the info they needed before setting out; and yet they take to the roads anyway, get stuck and depend on third-party generosity to get them out of a bad situation ... )

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2019 4:49pm

nc6000 wrote: »

Sky News are reporting Nissan have cancelled plans to build the X-Trail model in Sunderland.

Faisal Islam has tweeted that as a result of the EU-Japan FTA, moving production to Sunderland, rather than leaving it in Japan, would add a 10% tariff:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1091719558589829120

ThePanjandrum · 02-02-2019 4:49pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Various newspapers suggest May could move towards offering a permanent customs union if/when she gets nowhere next week - would there be an argument for taking that, and finalising arrangements on regulatory alignment during the transition period?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-whitehall-officials-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-eu-customs-union-a8759226.html

Don't you find it interesting that a "newspaper" owned and run by an ex-KGB agent who is one of Putin's closest friends should be so unwaveringly behind Remaining? It's almost as if this whole "Russia caused Brexit" nonsense was made up by malcontent Remainers.

ThePanjandrum · 02-02-2019 4:54pm

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Interesting point from a PPower billboard ad for the visiting rugby fans:

"Welcome to the largest English speaking city in the EU"
(post-brexitious)

Could be useful marketing for language schools (well, assuming they're legit schools),
Valletta (1/2m) is probably 2nd, in terms of populaiton and ease of use/acceptance of English language.

Amsterdam is larger.

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 5:02pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Amsterdam is larger.

Ireland's got a huge advantage over any of those locations for companies moving, beyond the fact that it's native English speaking.

The Dutch have a fairly easy grasp of English because Dutch's very similar to it phonetically and structurally, but they're not native speakers and not everyone's 100% fluent by any means. I've lived there and have quite a few Dutch friends who just about get by in English.

We've an extremely similar business environment to the UK, the most important bit being that our civil law system is very similar to English law. So, a lot of concepts of contract law work here in a very familiar way. It's also much more similar to US law (which has its origins in English law, except for Louisiana)

There are other similarities to around things like how Revenue approaches tax assessments and accounting systems are basically identical to the UK.

A move from London to Dublin or Manchester to Cork isn't really that big a culture shock for most companies. Arguably, a move to Edinburgh would actually be more of an upheaval as Scots law's actually based on different fundamental concepts.

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2019 5:13pm

Anthracite wrote: »

Well Cork city is a tad larger than Valetta.

Very much doubt Cork (city) is 570,000+.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Amsterdam is larger.

Guess so, you can get by 'generally' with only English, in Valletta you can almost 'certainly' always get by, with just English across all spheres of daily life.

Still it's a very good advertising line, to be able to promote Dub as the EU's largest English speaking capital/city (post-exit).

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 5:16pm

Valetta's very definitely bilingual, particularly if you're talking about media - radio is mostly in Maltese for example. It's arguably even trilingual as there's a huge influence of Italian too.

You could function monolingually in English, much as you could function in French in Brussels, but you'd still be getting loads of Flemish/Dutch.

The metro population of Valetta is 393,938 (Urban: 355,000)
Cork metro 399,216 (Urban: 208,669)

Valetta would have probably be a bigger and more tightly defined urban area, Cork probably has a bigger metro / hinterland.

With any of those measures though you'll get distortions. I mean you have some people defining Dublin as half of Leinster when they're trying to stretch the population to the "Greater Dublin Area" which includes Meath, Wicklow and Kildare..
Dublin metro 1,347,359 (Urban: 1,173,179, Official City: 554,554)

Either way, Dublin's definitely now the largest officially English speaking city in the EU.

Although, knowing our government, they've probably officially classified it as Irish speaking.

ThePanjandrum · 02-02-2019 5:19pm

Anthracite wrote: »

Let's cast aside everything else for a moment and explore this. What have the 'underprivileged' voted for here, and why is it better for them?

Can I suggest that you read the articles and see what the authors actually say instead of me putting my gloss on it.

megaten · 02-02-2019 5:23pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Can I suggest that you read the articles and see what the authors actually say instead of me putting my gloss on it.

Why shouls someone else do that for your sake.

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2019 5:28pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

Cork metro 399,216 (Urban: 208,669)

Only 125,657 live in Cork City, according to 2016 census.

The entire county (of 7,500 km² - the largest county in Ire) is only circa 542,000.

Water John · 02-02-2019 5:37pm

Off topic but Cork City has just about trebled in size with the redrawing in progress.

TM is coaxing Lb with money and a possible full customs union. I would think and probably correctly that the latter is simply to get the ERG onside. 'If you don't support my deal this is what will happen' TM.
But we know keeping the Tory Party together is her top priority so siding with Lb would only occur, if she sees a disastrous No Deal as the only other option.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 5:38pm

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Very much doubt Cork (city) is 570,000+.

You realise that the population of the whole of Malta is under half a million?

There are villages in Cork with twice the population of Valetta.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 5:42pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Can I suggest that you read the articles and see what the authors actually say instead of me putting my gloss on it.

I'm interested in your point, which seems like arrant nonsense, and I'm asking you to explain in just in case I'm wrong.

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2019 5:50pm

Anthracite wrote: »

You realise that the population of the whole of Malta is under half a million?

There are villages in Cork with twice the population of Valetta.

Depends on how define the exact city, generally the main central business districts would overshadow Cork in look and feel.

Sure the city of London is only a few thousand people, but no one refers to that specific district area when referring to 'London'.

An island of 570,000 and it's only 316 km², hence it's has a 'more urban feel, and population dense' than that of Cork city, the county of which is 7,500 km² and only than 542k spread across a vast area.

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 5:58pm

To get back to Brexit, it's potentially good for Ireland and Malta. We'd be better to cooperate with Malta and Cyprus on a few issues around common interests as countries that speak English or have large English speaking populations, we also share some legacy UK technical standards and so on - drive on left, plugs/sockets, some aspects of other standards and so on.

There's an argument for getting together on many of those issues.

We also are islands with significant needs around air and ferry transport.

ThePanjandrum · 02-02-2019 6:00pm

nc6000 wrote: »

Sky News are reporting Nissan have cancelled plans to build the X-Trail model in Sunderland.

So, as I understand it:

The SUV is currently built in Japan,
No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,
We do not know the reason this would have happened
Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn
It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 6:01pm

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Depends on how define the exact city, generally the main central business districts would overshadow Cork in look and feel.

Sure the city of London is only a few thousand people, but no one refers to that specific district area when referring to 'London'.

An island of 570,000 and it's only 316 km², hence it's has a 'more urban feel, and population dense' than that of Cork city, the county of which is 7,500 km² and only than 542k spread across a vast area.

I'm not sure if you've been to Malta, but the 'Valetta' urban area does not feel like a conurbation of half a million. And the figure I see for the population of the whole of Malta is 480k.

On the point of business moving somewhere, Cork has large undeveloped docklands which would seem to represent an easy development opportunity for business and residential property.

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 6:12pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So, as I understand it:
The SUV is currently built in Japan,

No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,

We do not know the reason this would have happened

Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn

It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

It may also be just looking ahead to the EU Japan trade deal and the awkwardness of the UK at the moment and just deciding to continue with production in Japan.

Or, it could be planning to use a Renault facility on the continent too

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 6:28pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So, as I understand it:
The SUV is currently built in Japan,

No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,

We do not know the reason this would have happened

Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn

It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

Or maybe it's the obvious: May promised the Japanese they would have free access to the EU market, it was a lie, and the Japanese are acting on that.

Enzokk · 02-02-2019 6:53pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

The U.K. has no responsibility towards Ireland. It has no responsibility to make life here easier or more prosperous. I’m at a loss as to why this irritates you so much. It has a responsibility, however, to maintain the trust and political engagement of the people it serves in Britain.

The UK does have a responsibility to its citizens in NI who identify as Irish though. Also, as the EU knows, it is easier for countries to work together and avoid armed conflict if there is cooperation where both sides are better off financially. So while the UK has no responsibility to Ireland they do have a responsibility to work with Ireland to ensure conditions in NI doesn't mean either side feels let down by authorities so they take matter in their own hands.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So, as I understand it:
The SUV is currently built in Japan,

No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,

We do not know the reason this would have happened

Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn

It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Faisal Islam has tweeted that as a result of the EU-Japan FTA, moving production to Sunderland, rather than leaving it in Japan, would add a 10% tariff:

Faisal Islam is one of the more trusted journalists out there so if he is hearing about this as a possibility it means there are rumblings that it may happen. Now people may try to deflect that the reasons for this is not Brexit related but much like other companies who has moved operations to other countries who is either in the EU or has trade deals with the EU that ensure zero tariffs you can bet it played a major role.

AllForIt · 02-02-2019 7:08pm

You do get the feeling that foreign provided manufacturing is going to go way south in the UK at one point or another. Funny cause that will hit the working classes the most, the very ppl who wanted to take back their country.

jochenstacker · 02-02-2019 7:13pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So, as I understand it:
The SUV is currently built in Japan,

No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,

We do not know the reason this would have happened

Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn

It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

Well, keep a copy of that list, you can post a variation of it anytime another company leaves/cancles plans to build something.
And keep assuring people that lightning does indeed strike twice, or several thousand times.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 7:16pm

AllForIt wrote: »

You do get the feeling that foreign provided manufacturing is going to go way south in the UK at one point or another. Funny cause that will hit the working classes the most, the very ppl who wanted to take back their country.

Yes, this seems super obvious, but Panajandrum seems to think the working classes have a cunning plan in mind.

He's not sharing what it is though.

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2019 8:07pm

It appears Labour Leavers are defecting to the Tories following Tuesday's votes:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1091762049099677697

Professor Moriarty · 02-02-2019 8:09pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It appears Labour Leavers are defecting to the Tories following Tuesday's votes:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1091762049099677697

Good man Jeremy.

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 8:18pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Good man Jeremy.

It's like a perfect storm to ensure the most disasterous outcome.

Charles Babbage · 02-02-2019 8:20pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's like a perfect storm to ensure the most disasterous outcome.

I wonder though whether May might be tempted to call an election based on the Withdrawal Agreement, she could then ensure that all candidates supported it and get enough seats to do without the DUP.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 8:25pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

I wonder though whether May might be tempted to call an election based on the Withdrawal Agreement, she could then ensure that all candidates supported it and get enough seats to do without the DUP.

Fixed term parliament.

ancapailldorcha · 02-02-2019 8:29pm

Anthracite wrote: »

Fixed term parliament.

Won't be an issue. Pushing for a general election is the closest Labour have come to opposing Brexit.

Professor Moriarty · 02-02-2019 8:35pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's like a perfect storm to ensure the most disasterous outcome.

It's almost as if he wants a Brexit...

Enzokk · 02-02-2019 8:36pm

Anthracite wrote: »

Fixed term parliament.

Didn't stop her from calling the election in 2017. The PM will need 2/3 of the votes in the HoC to call for a new election before the term is up or a no confidence vote. Labour would support a new election so she would only need about 150 Tories as well. Maybe more, quick mathematics is not my area.

Leroy42 · 02-02-2019 8:37pm

TM cannot call an election. On what manifesto for the EU would the Tories stand?

ancapailldorcha · 02-02-2019 8:40pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

TM cannot call an election. On what manifesto for the EU would the Tories stand?

The answer to the first part of your post is that she can. Labour have been pushing for one for some time now.

It's the question you ask which is intriguing. Her options are the following as I see them:

The Withdrawal Agreement
Repeal notice to trigger Article 50 and/or call a people's vote
Put her foot down and call for a no deal Brexit (Will involve much jingoistic language)

I think option 1 is still the most likely. MP's don't want a crash out Brexit and the WA leaves the option of a referendum on the table. Option 3 will destroy the Tories.

Leroy42 · 02-02-2019 8:46pm

Well yes, she could call an election, that is true is terms of rules, but in reality she can't.

What does she say? My deal, and have the likes of ERG etc tear her apart? An amended deal, people will want to know what that means. No deal, really, her party would never unite on that

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2019 8:54pm

To give the Electoral Calculus projection:

Con 338 (+20)

Lab 232 (-30)

Lib Dems 17 (+5)

SNP 41 (+6)

Green 1

NI 18

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 8:55pm

It'll be option 3. I'm seeing the rhetoric bring dialed up again.

The only thing I could see as a positive in a GE is the DUP might face pressure in NI.

You might also see more seats to to the SDLP if they were willing to fight this in Westminster rather than SF just not recognising Westminster.

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2019 8:58pm

Anthracite wrote: »

I'm not sure if you've been to Malta

Actually, yes.

Anthracite wrote: »

but the 'Valetta' urban area does not feel like a conurbation of half a million. And the figure I see for the population of the whole of Malta is 480k.

Generally that includes Silema, St.J and many other nearby urban areas which are all a stones throw away. Again check your figures as 480 is wrong, as it calling Cork (city area) anywhere near to 1/2m.

Anthracite wrote: »

On the point of business moving somewhere, Cork has large undeveloped docklands which would seem to represent an easy development opportunity for business and residential property.

Val already has (developed) docklands, hence all the crusie ships. There are similaraities as others have mentioned driving on left, 3pin plugs, and even red postboxes/phoneboxes. Not to mention 'tax friendly' factors in both. The 4th Ind Rev generally won't lend itself towards heavy industry/manufacturing.

It's still a very good marketing factor regardless to have two of top three Eng speaking cities in the EU after brexit in Ire.

If there is deal (unlikely) that puts the North into a special 'dual-market' type access area, it would be bonus time for Belfast (295 urban or 585k metro) with low wages, low rent, large educated and under-utilised workforce would all equate to great growth for the entire island.

McGiver · 02-02-2019 9:01pm

I think the EU is not going to negotiate with HMG anymore. All patience and goodwill is gone. Everyone, even the most optimistic person EU diplomat or politician, now understands HMG is not negotiating in good faith. Anything offered to UK is reneged on, no amount of appeasement or compromising will make HMG a trustworthy negotiating party, it seems rather the opposite.

Verhofstad speaking in the EP about the last week's HoC votes. Interestingly, he (and the rest of the EP) is reading the situation more clearly than BBC and vast majority of domestic UK commentators.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc4WiBRnAyQ

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2019 9:03pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

The only thing I could see as a positive in a GE is the DUP might face pressure in NI.

Indeed further delays will aid Labours ultimate ambitions, if they can call a GE, for sure the DUP and the entire establishment will poo their pants, so to speak.

Maybe Jez will likely have one of those involountary 'heart attack' incidents out in the countryside if it looks like he can actually win.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2019 9:14pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

To give the Electoral Calculus projection:

Con 338 (+20)

A - How many of the Scottish seats does that that include ?

B - An election could allow the DUP to abandon ship without loosing face.

C - Last time out a majority was predicted too.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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