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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

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12467…69

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    #92
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users Posts: 13,852 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?


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    #93
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Had a look back and Kyle dissipated early 16th north of Bermuda. The low then showing up on CMC analysis seems to be its remnant low. That is now north of the Azores and was analyzed at 1003 mb at 18z.

    Current satellite imagery:

    https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

    (note this will update in real time for later readers)

    The proto-Ellen former Kyle feature is the wave northeast of the Azores. Tonight's advancing frontal systems and heavy rain potential is embedded in the cloud masses now closer to Ireland.

    I guess the million euro question is which model solution to follow, the ignore-Ellen and keep developing the primary, or the total transfer of most energy to Ellen that is implied in ECM and some other Euro-models.

    Water temperatures certainly quite toasty in Biscay (21-23 C).

    Would expect 00z model runs to come into much closer agreement. Morning forecasts should be more reliable than anything now available.

    For the record, NHC shows no potential development in the Biscay region although its map for showing that cuts off west of where Ellen might be intensifying anyway. All previous named storms (of the N Atl tropical family, that is) to affect Ireland formed near or west of Azores and NHC ignores "medicanes" so I'm not sure if they would, in theory, track and name anything that formed in Biscay that had tropical or subtropical features. No reason why not, I suppose, we could call this a Bis-cane or perhaps a Celti-cane. (if it happens)


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    #94
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Thelonious Monk wrote: »
    it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?

    Very strange that the system is hundreds of miles away and the gusts haven't arrived ahead of schedule.


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    #95
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users Posts: 13,852 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Very strange that the system is hundreds of miles away and the gusts haven't arrived ahead of schedule.

    Very strange to me that it's this warm out at this hour with no wind at night. No need for the sarcasm.


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    #96
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Either way, it's certainly an interesting turn after the many weeks of grey boredom that we had not so long ago.


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    #97
    mojesius
    Registered Users Posts: 4,324 ✭✭✭mojesius


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Either way, it's certainly an interesting turn after the many weeks of grey boredom that we had not so long ago.

    Maybe it'll blow all the grey ****e away for a few weeks.


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    #98
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

    Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

    I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.


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    #99
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

    Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

    I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.

    gfs sticking to it's guns with for the majority a non-event


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    #100
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    This all seems so uncertain.


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    #101
    Dank Janniels
    Registered Users Posts: 641 ✭✭✭Dank Janniels


    Will the hairdressers be open?


    Sorry wrong thread


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    #102
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    . Would be quite the shock to staycation people in caravans and what not if they do not take it seriously

    True story. I was in a mobile home during storm Darwin although I knew f all about it been forecasted as named storms were really only a new thing back then. Talk about a rollercoaster of a night.


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    #103
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Dank Janniels wrote: »
    Will the hairdressers be open?


    Sorry wrong thread

    You looking for a wash and blow?


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    #104
    Keplar240B
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Keplar240B


    This is the end of my sunflowers.


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    #105
    smallgarden
    Registered Users Posts: 1,606 ✭✭✭smallgarden


    irishrover99 wrote: »
    True story. I was in a mobile home during storm Darwin although I knew f all about it been forecasted as named storms were really only a new thing back then. Talk about a rollercoaster of a night.

    I wouldn't fancy being in a tent tomorrow night


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    #106
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Camping in a storm? could be IN-TENTS...


    I'll get my rain coat.


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    #107
    Dancewithme
    Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭Dancewithme


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

    Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

    I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.

    We are absolutely fecked so.


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    #108
    nthclare
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    smallgarden wrote: »
    I wouldn't fancy being in a tent tomorrow night

    If this is blowing offshore, maybe whomever is camping along that stretch between Lisdoonvarna and Fanore should pack up and leave.

    Because if a heavy gust catches some of those tents they'll be rolled over the cliff's in Ballyreen.
    Straight into the brinny.


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    #109
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,839 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Keplar240B wrote: »
    This is the end of my sunflowers.

    You're probably right, so harvest them tomorrow, put them in water and give them to some people who they might cheer up. There's a bit of life in them yet!


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    #110
    greasepalm
    Registered Users Posts: 5,260 ✭✭✭greasepalm


    Omg The homeless out in the bad weather.


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    #111
    Thewife
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Thewife


    Oh that’s so great to hear ðŸ™ðŸ» I’ve been worried about her so I’m delighted to see she was on her blog . Would you happen to remember the web address for the blog please ?
    taytobreath wrote: »
    I checked her profile a few weeks ago and she has a link to a blog that was updated the day before I checked her profile, so she's still active but not on boards.

    On topic....Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?


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    #112
    Thewife
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Thewife


    This is so amazing to hear thank you so much for letting me know . Please pass on my regards to her and tell her I’ve been wondering about her and if she was ok 😊
    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I am in touch with her.
    She is keeping well.


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    #113
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,107 ✭✭✭piplip87


    A storm of this potential in August imagine if there was no COVID. Imagine the amount if my flight is leaving dublin at 5PM will it be windy posts


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    #114
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thewife wrote: »
    Oh that’s so great to hear ðŸ™ðŸ» I’ve been worried about her so I’m delighted to see she was on her blog . Would you happen to remember the web address for the blog please ?

    Here you go :)

    https://islandanchorhold.blogspot.com/?m=1


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    #115
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    AROME 18Z Hi Res just rolling out,similar track to its last run but much stronger winds on approach on this run.

    Heavy intense rainfall in places.

    anim_stg4.gif

    aromehd-52-36-0_dam7.png

    anim_qpb0.gif

    aromehd-25-36-0_vua7.png


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    #116
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    piplip87 wrote: »
    A storm of this potential in August imagine if there was no COVID. Imagine the amount if my flight is leaving dublin at 5PM will it be windy posts

    Maybe that will be replaced with, “will the storm blow Covid away”


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    #117
    forestgirl
    Registered Users Posts: 254 ✭✭forestgirl


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    This all seems so uncertain.

    Pass on my regards to graces please,I really miss her posts so much and I miss hearing about the weather on her island,thank you


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    #118
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Usually these storms do tend to go further west then forecast don't they? Which is leaning me towards the ECM, UKMO type track rather then the AROME etc and it seems even Met Eireann is using the ECM track Vs their harmonie one which has the strongest winds further east it seems.


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    #119
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users Posts: 13,852 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    A storm blew away 25% of my roof last night.
    Oof


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    #120
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,070 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Latest forecast from met eireann on Rte radio 1 now


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    #121
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Usually these storms do tend to go further west then forecast don't they? Which is leaning me towards the ECM, UKMO type track rather then the AROME etc and it seems even Met Eireann is using the ECM track Vs their harmonie one which has the strongest winds further east it seems.
    They usually end up paying Donegal Bay a visit


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