October 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2011 7:49pm #1

October 2011 Boards forecast contest
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Deadline for entries (without penalty) end of Saturday 1st October (0300h 2nd) ... late entries on Sunday 2nd with penalty for pts>60 (to 0300h 3rd) ... late-late penalty pts>50 for regular entrants only, Monday 3rd to 0300h 4th, then no entries accepted.

1. Predict the mean "IMT" value (which has been 10.2 C 1961-90, 10.1 1971-2000, and 10.2 for 1981-2010, data thanks to DE).

2. Predict the maximum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

3. Predict the minimum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

4. Predict the rainfall at eleven reporting sites as percentage of normal.

5. Predict the sunshine at six reporting sites as percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: Will there be an early appearance of snowfall? Read carefully for the rules on this one ... predict the date of the first autumn (or winter) snowfall defined as any hourly report of snow (not hail) at any Met.ie station. Photos of snow on hills, or forum reports do not count. Date can be in November or December. If contest fails to validate by end of October, this bonus will carry over until scored (but points to count for October). Points will be 10 minus error in days adjusted up by rank order to give at least 3 scores of 10, 3 of 9 etc. Example, you predict 24 October, the actual turns out to be 2 November, that's a 9-day error worth one point but you could go up if you're better than 28th place. No snow in October, contest can be scored approximately and updated when points are clarified. A new bonus question will happen in November whether the snow has fallen or not. If you predict no snow by New Years, five year forum ban and shame on you.

:eek:

TEMPLATE that entrants can use:

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... SNOWDATE

Anyone who predicts a snowdate without a month will automatically be entering an October date so be careful to specify day and month.

Did you enter thetonynator's warm spell max temperature contest? Deadline is end of Tuesday.

cherryghost · 26-09-2011 8:39pm

IMT.....10.9
MAX....21.9
MIN....-4
PRC....95%
SUN....110%

pauldry · 27-09-2011 10:46am

IMT.....11.2
MAX....19.3
MIN....-2.8
PRC....75%
SUN....115%
SNOWDATE.....NOV28TH

NIALL D · 27-09-2011 11:05am

IMT...........10.5
MAX..........21.7
MIN...........-3.2
PRC...........81%
SUN..........105%
SNOWDATE..NOV 19th

Harps · 27-09-2011 2:53pm

10.0 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.1 ..... 90 ..... 95 ..... DEC 07

drdeadlift · 27-09-2011 3:43pm

IMT.....13
MAX....18
MIN....4
PRC....69%
SUN....77%
SNOWDATE.....jan 4th 2012

only one · 27-09-2011 4:09pm

IMT....10.1
MAX...20
MIN....2
PRC....59%
SUN...67%
SNOWDATE.........NOV 18TH

Strasser · 28-09-2011 9:06am

IMT....10.8
MAX...18.5
MIN.... - 1.5
PRC....110%
SUN...92%
SNOWDATE.........Dec 30TH

snowstreams · 28-09-2011 1:43pm

IMT.....10.2
MAX....18.8
MIN....-3.2
PRC....95%
SUN....105%
SNOWDATE.....December 3rd

octo · 28-09-2011 8:45pm

IMT ..... 10.0
MAX ..... 21
MIN ..... -1.5
PRC ..... 110
SUN ..... 95
SNOWDATE.....December 25

JackieChan · 28-09-2011 9:39pm

IMT ..... 11.1
MAX ..... 22.1
MIN ..... -2
PRC ..... 95
SUN ..... 95
SNOWDATE.....Nov 27

Iancar29 · 28-09-2011 9:56pm

IMT.....11.0
MAX....22.0
MIN.... -3
PRC.... 110
SUN.... 90
SNOWDATE NOV 15th

Deep Easterly · 28-09-2011 10:14pm

10.8 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.3c ..... 80% ..... 100% ..... 28th November.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 29-09-2011 9:12am

IMT....11.2
MAX...22.4
MIN....-4
PRC....105
SUN....90
SNOWDATE....Nov 4th

Come on MT, show your hand !! :pac:

4Sheets · 29-09-2011 6:04pm

10.5 ..... 20.0 ..... -3.0 .....110..... 100 ..... Nov 21

hellboy99 · 29-09-2011 7:59pm

11 ..... 21.4 ..... -3 ..... 93 ..... 97 ..... NOV 18th

homolumo · 29-09-2011 8:49pm

10.7 ..... 20.3 ..... -2.9c ..... 89% ..... 95% ..... 25th December

H2UMrsRobinson · 29-09-2011 9:25pm

IMT 11.1 MAX 19.5 MIN 2.1 PRC 101% SUN 94 SNOWDATE 11th november

talkabout · 29-09-2011 10:55pm

10.1 ..... 20.4 ..... -3.7 ..... 90 ..... 105 ..... NOV 28th

200motels · 30-09-2011 12:33am

IMT...........12.1
MAX..........21.9
MIN...........-1.6
PRC...........61%
SUN..........129%
SNOWDATE..Dec 18th

mickger844posts · 30-09-2011 7:28am

10.5..... 21.5 ..... -2.4 ..... 80 ..... 115 ..... Nov. 30th

M.T. Cranium · 30-09-2011 8:13am

So far, no guesses for an October snowfall, but I will break that trend ...

9.8 ..... 20.1 ..... -4.5 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... 23 OCT

(not saying it will stick around very long)

fizzycyst · 30-09-2011 11:21am

10.1..... 18.5 ..... -3.7 ..... 105 ..... 98 ..... Nov 03

Redsunset · 30-09-2011 3:02pm

10.9.
21
-1.5
125
85
February 5

thetonynator · 30-09-2011 5:01pm

redsunset wrote: »

February 5

You disgust me . . .:P

7.9 ..... 20.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 105 ..... 75 ..... 27 NOV

okla · 30-09-2011 9:32pm

IMT.....10.6
MAX....21.5
MIN....-3.1
PRC.... 90
SUN....105%
SNOWDATE..... Dec 5th

Su Campu · 30-09-2011 10:12pm

10.2 ... 22.5 ... -1.5 ... 130 ... 95 ... Nov 28th

Just to point out something. The unmanned stations can erronously report "Snow" during very low-visibility conditions, such as fog. Since we're now entering a high-risk fog period, we should not take any such "Snow" reports at face value until they can be verified.

This is from Met Éireann's site:
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

The data presented on this page are the latest available for each station. These data are presented here soon after the time of measurement and have not been subjected to extensive checking. Many of the measurements come from automated instruments with no human supervision. These are generally very reliable but, as with any system, human or automatic, errors can happen from time to time. During automatic operation, the "Weather" is estimated by an optical instrument. Classification of weather-type is significantly more difficult than measuring temperature or pressure and the result is occasionally incorrect. In particular, you may see a very occasional report of snow during periods of foggy weather.

Any measurement must be viewed in the context of the other parameters measured at the same time, both at the same station and at other neighbouring stations.