October 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

First week update ...

IMT stands at 12.4 C (+1.1 relative to normal for the week).

Rainfall at the eleven stations used in the summary was 89% of normal. Casement had considerably more, and Dublin is not used in that list, which explains why the figure may be lower than some expected ... of the other stations used, only Shannon was above average. By Saturday 1st the heavier rain was confined mostly to the east and then since last weekend it has been rather dry everywhere.

Meanwhile, sunshine has averaged 79% of normal values, which has varied from place to place.

Tae laidir

Looks like Philippe is going to wreck us 'Low Temp' forecasters.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/210531.shtml?3-daynl

M.T. Cranium

Update through 14 days ...

The IMT has probably reached its high point after a very mild week that averaged 14.5 C. The overall IMT is now 13.5 C but likely to come down into the lower 12 range fairly soon. Over in Britain the CET was last spotted up around 15, near record values for first half of October. They of course had even hotter weather to start out the month.

Rainfall averaged 79% but varied considerably, with the north and northwest above normal, the southeast almost bone dry. This leaves the month sitting at about 84%, a figure which shouldn't change too drastically this coming week with widespread showery rainfalls.

Sunshine, I had to estimate from unreported Dublin (yesterday was not in the stats), but their daily values before yesterday appeared considerably higher than the rest, which were quite dull (26% for 5) so if I assume Dublin hit a full 100% the average is still only 38% and this drops the monthly average to 59% which should be slightly improved in the coming seven days, although perhaps not that much.

Su Campu

Dublin Airport had a grand total of 0.0 hours of sun yesterday MT!

M.T. Cranium

I assumed that was the case, but they had quite a few hours earlier in the week, more than Casement, and I estimated that to be 100% of the average, could be a bit generous there, so if anything our running estimate is high rather than low.

Deep Easterly

Lowest temperatures up to 7am this morn:

Mullingar: 1.9c
Oak Park: 2.0c
Gurteen: 2.1c
Casement: 2.7c

No air frost officially anyways.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE ... after three weeks (21 days)
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The IMT for the past week was closer to normal and is now estimated to be at 12.2 C (some missing data for Claremorris forces an estimate there).

Rainfall for the past week was also estimated due to several incomplete stations in today's ag report, but in any case this is academic given the forecast amounts and today's heavy rains at some stations. But for the record, I estimated the week at 90% of normal and that leaves the month at about 86%. I would not be surprised if this inflates rapidly to a number close to 200% for the month, which will require the use of the "mercy rule" ... our highest prediction is 140% from Danno.

Sunshine also required some estimating but the week appeared to be relatively sunny at about 120% so that figure has now risen to about 80% for the month. It may have trouble improving on that now.

(Ladies and) gentlemen, start your weather stations. :cool:

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE ... after three weeks (21 days)
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The IMT for the past week was closer to normal and is now estimated to be at 12.2 C (some missing data for Claremorris forces an estimate there).

Not a bad estimate M.T, IMT is on 12.1c which includes full data set from Claremorris (as per reports on daily data page on met.ie)

For what it is worth, the IMR rainfall percentage value for the month in on 89.1 so far.

Edit: Chart showing IMT trend up to 21st for this year and the previous 2:


IMT value for the same period last year, and coincidentally enough, the year before, was on 10.7c, which was bang on the 61-90 norm for the first 2/3rds of the month.

Sponge Bob

Deep Easterly wrote: »

For what it is worth, the IMR rainfall percentage value for the month in on 89.1 so far.

It is worth nothing given the last few days of rain. Giz an update.

pauldry

IMR now 2,0000000000000000000000000000000000000000.3%:D

M.T. Cranium

Here's what I worked out ... first of all, Dublin is not one of the eleven stations that report in the rainfall section of the monthly summary but Casement is ... that may make some of these numbers a bit lower than you might expect, because other than Dublin and Casement, only Valentia saw huge amounts of rain since the last update. The average for the eleven stations over the past seven days has been 240% of normal (Casement and Dublin both over 600%). Since that includes the last four days of week three, if I compare predicted amounts (including what fell today) to those days and go forward to 28 days, I think this fourth week will stand at about 400% but could be as low as 300%. So taking the more conservative 300% and applying it to the value reported after three weeks, that would give 140% for the month, taking 400% gives us 164%. So unless there is another almighty deluge before month's end, I would expect the final number to be somewhere around 150% and whatever it is won't matter to scoring because once it passes the highest guess (140%) the scoring will be the same from the mercy rule.

Sponge Bob

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

other than Dublin and Casement, only Valentia saw huge amounts of rain since the last update.

I can never remember the precise 11 but Valentia (despite the deluge) has NOT reached 100% of normal yet , 5mm shy to yesterday. Funnily enough Oak Park is 0.2mm shy of the mean. Most other stations have bust the mean number.

M.T. Cranium

True or not, my updates are based on percentages of the normal values for the elapsed time, not for the eventual end of month. Example, if I say that the rainfall is 100% at the half-way point, that means 100% of the average for the first half of the month. Unless the average amounts change significantly from first to second half, that would round out to half the average monthly total. So in this case, we're talking about 80% of the month already past and perhaps 150% of the normal amounts of rain for that large fraction of the month. If it then became totally dry the 150% would be reduced but the way to use the estimate is basically this, if the forecast looks to be about 150% of daily average amounts then the monthly should stay around 150%.

Same comment applies to sunshine, an update saying 80% after 21 days equates to about 55% of the monthly average recorded to date, but doesn't imply that the finishing point will be 55% unless every day from then on fails to record any sunshine.

The IMT updates are "absolute values" and sometimes we present them relative to normal values that would apply only to the elapsed part of the month. Example, if the IMT today was 12.0 and the end of month normal was 10.0, it likely wouldn't be 2.0 above normal but more like 1.5 because the elapsed mean for the month is steadily falling (this is an approximation).

Meanwhile, perhaps of more interest, the November forecast contest thread is opened. If you only want to know what the bonus question will be, that will be the maximum wind gust speed in knots.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATES through 28 days
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IMT for the past week was 9.3 C and for the month now stands at 11.5 C. That won't change much now with these mild nights.

The rainfall for the eleven stations used was 260% of normal, which changes the monthly to 140%. Some approximation required there with one station estimated. In any case, this seems likely to edge up towards 150% if Monday proves as wet as models say.

Sunshine again estimated in the 80% range for the week, which is where it started the week. That seems unlikely to gain.

We had a few nights with lower mins but the lowest I spotted was 2.2 so I think we're still on 1.7 or something like that. Little chance of that being broken next two nights.

Deep Easterly

Final October IMT: 11.6c (+1.4c)
Mean max: 14.6c (+0.9c) / Mean min: 8.6c (+1.8c)

IMR: 132% (non comp)

M.T. Cranium

These are the final values for October ...

IMT ... 11.6 C

max ... 21.1 C (Phoenix Park, 3rd)

min ..... 1.8 C (Knock, 26th)

prc .... 137%

sun ..... 76%

bonus ... no evidence in Monthly Summary of observed snowfall so this remains open for scoring.

Watch for a provisional scoring table to be posted around 10:30-11 p.m. in the annual scoring thread. I will estimate the scores for the snowfall bonus for a date near the end of November. That will give you some idea how you're doing and we can adjust the scores when snow happens.

Don't forget to enter November (no penalty until 0300h)

octo

Hi Lads

Just wondering, was there ever a league table published?

Edit....
Sorry, just saw it in the other thread, doh.

jd

Snow today, I think..

thetonynator

jd wrote: »

Snow today, I think..

Annual scoring thread has been edited to allow for it.