October 2011 Boards forecast contest

John mac

10.3 ..... 19.7 .....-1.0 ..... 100..... 121 .....03 Dec

Joe Public

10.9 ..... 22.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 89 ..... 129 ..... Nov 9th

jd

10.9 ..... 21.8 ..... -2.1 ..... 125 ..... 95 ..... nov 24

traecy1

10.3.....20.2.....0.2.....95.....100.....December 10th

dacogawa

10.6 ..... 21.3 ..... -2.8 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... 5 Nov

Deep Easterly

MT, if ok could I up my rainfall total guess up to 110%? feeling increasingly uncomfortable about the 80% I previously put down.

Sponge Bob

10.4 ....21.8 ....-1.9 ....121 ....102 ....Nov 29th

jma

IMT .............. 10.3 °C
MAX ............. 18.4 °C
MIN ............. -3.5 °C
PRC .............. 100%
SUN .............. 98%
SNOWDATE .... NOV 2nd

nilhg

10.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.1 ..... 105 ..... 100 ..... Dec 15th

Lumi

10.5 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.6 ..... 117 ..... 93 ..... December 15

Speak Now

10.8 ..... 20 ..... -3 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... December 31st

Rebelbrowser

10.0 ..... 18.7 ..... -2.1 ..... 92..... 108 ..... 22 November

Tae laidir

9.9 ..... 18.6 ..... -3.3 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... dec31

rameire

10.0 ..... 19.6 ..... -3.6 ..... 96 ..... 89 ..... Nov 15th

MiNdGaM3

10.9 ..... 18.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 90 ..... 105 ..... NOV 20th

Sorry for the late entry, have been in Greece enjoying the sun on a field trip:D

Danno

9.9 ..... 21.4 ..... -2.9 ..... 140 ..... 95 ..... Oct 27th

SeaFields

9.4 ..... 17.5 ..... -3.2 .....100 ..... 70.....DEC1

jambofc

10.3...18.5c....-1c....90%....95%.....24thdec

M.T. Cranium

Closed to further entries now ... welcome new contestants this month.

Forecasts for October 2011
______________________________________

Forecaster ............. IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Snowdate
________________________________________________________________

drdeadlift ............... 13.0 ..... 18.0 ..... +4.0 ..... 069 ..... 077 ..... 04-01
200motels ...............12.1 ..... 21.9 ..... -1.6 ..... 061 ..... 129 ..... 18-12
pauldry .................. 11.2 ..... 19.3 ..... -2.8 ..... 075 ..... 115 ..... 28-11
t|nt|n ................... 11.2 ..... 22.4 ...... -4.0 ..... 105 ..... 090 ..... 04-11
kindredspirit ............ 11.2 ..... 21.4 ..... -2.0 ..... 098 ..... 110 ..... 30-11
waterways ............. 11.1 ..... 20.1 ..... -2.8 ..... 093 ..... 115 ..... 09-11
JackieChan ............. 11.1 ..... 22.1 ..... -2.0 ..... 095 ..... 095 ..... 27-11
H2UMrsRobinson ...... 11.1 ..... 19.5 ..... +2.1 ..... 101 ..... 094 ..... 11-11
hellboy99 ............... 11.0 ..... 21.4 ..... -3.0 ..... 093 ..... 097 ..... 18-11
Iancar29 ................ 11.0 ..... 22.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 15-11
MiNdGaM3* ............ 10.9 ..... 18.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 20-11
nilhg ..................... 10.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.1 ..... 105 ..... 100 ..... 15-12
cherryghost ........... 10.9 ..... 21.9 ..... -4.0 ..... 095 ..... 110 ..... ??
redsunset ............. 10.9 ..... 21.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 125 ..... 085 ..... 05-02
DOCARCH .............. 10.9 ..... 21.3 ..... -1.6 ..... 108 ..... 098 ..... 05-12
Joe Public .............. 10.9 ..... 22.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 089 ..... 129 ..... 09-11
jd ........................ 10.9 ..... 21.8 ..... -2.1 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 24-11
Deep Easterly ......... 10.8 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.3 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 28-11
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 10.8 ..... 20.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 31-12
Strasser ................ 10.8 ..... 18.5 ..... -1.5 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 30-12
homolumo .............. 10.7 ..... 20.3 ..... -2.9 ..... 089 ..... 095 ..... 25-12
dacogawa ............. 10.6 ..... 21.3 ..... -2.8 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 05-11
okla ..................... 10.6 ..... 21.5 ..... -3.1 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 05-12
Fionagus ............... 10.5 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.6 ..... 117 ..... 093 ..... 15-12

Con Sensus .......... 10.5 ..... 20.5 ..... -2.1 ..... 100 ..... 095 ..... 28-11

NIALL D ................ 10.5 ..... 21.7 ..... -3.2 ..... 081 ..... 105 ..... 19-11
4Sheets ................ 10.5 ..... 20.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 21-11
mickger844posts ..... 10.5 ..... 21.5 ..... -2.4 ..... 080 ..... 115 ..... 30-11
Sponge Bob ........... 10.4 ..... 21.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 121 ..... 102 ..... 29-11
jma ...................... 10.3 ..... 18.4 ..... -3.5 ..... 100 ..... 098 ..... 02-11
jambofc* .............. 10.3 ..... 18.5 ..... -1.0 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 24-12
traecy1 ................ 10.3 ..... 20.2 ..... +0.2 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 10-12
dasa29 ................ 10.3 ..... 20.5 ..... -2.0 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 19-11
John mac .............. 10.3 ..... 19.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 100 ..... 121 ..... 03-12
snowstreams ......... 10.2 ..... 18.8 ..... -3.2 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 03-12
Su Campu ............. 10.2 ..... 22.5 ..... -1.5 ..... 130 ..... 095 ..... 28-11
only one ............... 10.1 ..... 20.0 ..... +2.0 ..... 059 ..... 067 ..... 18-11
talkabout .............. 10.1 ..... 20.4 ..... -3.7 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 28-11
fizzycyst ............... 10.1..... 18.5 ..... -3.7 ..... 105 ..... 098 ..... 03-11
Harps ................... 10.0 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.1 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 07-12
Rebelbrowser ......... 10.0 ..... 18.7 ..... -2.1 ..... 092 ..... 108 ..... 22-11
rameire* ............... 10.0 ..... 19.6 ..... -3.6 ..... 096 ..... 089 ..... 15-11
octo .................... 10.0 ..... 21.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 25-12
Tae laidir ................ 9.9 ..... 18.6 ..... -3.3 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... 31-12
Danno* .................. 9.9 ..... 21.4 ..... -2.9 ..... 140 ..... 095 ..... 27-10
M.T. Cranium ........... 9.8 ..... 20.1 ..... -4.5 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... 23-10
SeaFields* .............. 9.4 ..... 17.5 ..... -3.2 ..... 100 ..... 070 ..... 01-12
thetonynator ........... 7.9 ..... 20.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 105 ..... 075 ..... 27-11

* late entries, penalty pts if >60

)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))


Quite a variety of forecasts this month, from very mild to very cold, and trending a bit dry after the wet spell of the past week. The snowfall forecast seems to have spread out over a very wide spectrum but consensus falls near the end of November. Cherryghost, if you see this, post a snowfall forecast if you wish by end of this week and we'll accept that.

Let's hope it doesn't snow at Knock on Thursday, I suppose, or this bonus question will become a real lame duck event.

Speak Now

Dublin Airport has set the early max for the month.

20.4 which is higher than what half of us forecast.

thetonynator

Sh!t!!!!! that was meant to be a 9.9!!!

Ah well, if we get a super cold one i'll win!!!

M.T. Cranium

Re -- 20.4 at Dublin on 3rd, I had a look at Phoenix Park and they recorded 21.1 C.

This month, as in the past, I will wait for the Monthly Summary and use whatever figure they give. We used PP for the flash contest and I said that would over-ride the rule, but in fact the MS used that reading also.

pauldry

in that case i must warm up my predictions in future to take account of the Pheonix of the Flames.:p

M.T. Cranium

Finner reported "snow shower" at 23z (last midnight) and I'm wondering what the verdict would be on that, actual obs or automated error?

Bonus is scored on rank so this will not really matter if it snows again more convincingly this month.

MiNdGaM3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Finner reported "snow shower" at 23z (last midnight) and I'm wondering what the verdict would be on that, actual obs or automated error?

Bonus is scored on rank so this will not really matter if it snows again more convincingly this month.

Finner was the coldest station last night also, at 4.9C, so more likely to have had a rare snow/sleet shower than anywhere else.

Sponge Bob

Hail most likely.

pauldry

In Sligo it got down to 6.9c last night in the town with really heavy hail. :rolleyes:I dont know MT. Yourself and the Mods would want to examine it more closely. I'll check the 6 one weather if Evelyn says it she might mention something:) but if its some of the non Met people they wont.:(

cherryghost

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Cherryghost, if you see this, post a snowfall forecast if you wish by end of this week and we'll accept that.

Whoops, only saw this now, sorry MT. Will go for NOV 2nd

pauldry

cherry maybe you shoulda gone for Oct 5th

M.T. Cranium

For the time being, I will assume that the one report of snow at Finner was a case of hail being taken as snow by the automated equipment. There may have been some snowflakes mixed in but it seems unsupported for the purposes of our contest, so that bonus remains "in play" for all -- unless I get a definite word from the folks at Met-E in their monthly summary. Meanwhile the first actual forecast was 23 October in any case, and only two of us went for October, so if something happens later this month there would not be any change in the results.

Points on that bonus question will be divided the usual way, there will be forty scoring contestants with the four closest at ten points, etc, and only a handful will score zero based on time error. I hope this is resolved before the end of December but who knows ... if we're waiting in January then the points will be fairly easy to estimate at that stage.