October 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

October 2011 Boards forecast contest
___________________________________________

Deadline for entries (without penalty) end of Saturday 1st October (0300h 2nd) ... late entries on Sunday 2nd with penalty for pts>60 (to 0300h 3rd) ... late-late penalty pts>50 for regular entrants only, Monday 3rd to 0300h 4th, then no entries accepted.

1. Predict the mean "IMT" value (which has been 10.2 C 1961-90, 10.1 1971-2000, and 10.2 for 1981-2010, data thanks to DE).

2. Predict the maximum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

3. Predict the minimum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

4. Predict the rainfall at eleven reporting sites as percentage of normal.

5. Predict the sunshine at six reporting sites as percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: Will there be an early appearance of snowfall? Read carefully for the rules on this one ... predict the date of the first autumn (or winter) snowfall defined as any hourly report of snow (not hail) at any Met.ie station. Photos of snow on hills, or forum reports do not count. Date can be in November or December. If contest fails to validate by end of October, this bonus will carry over until scored (but points to count for October). Points will be 10 minus error in days adjusted up by rank order to give at least 3 scores of 10, 3 of 9 etc. Example, you predict 24 October, the actual turns out to be 2 November, that's a 9-day error worth one point but you could go up if you're better than 28th place. No snow in October, contest can be scored approximately and updated when points are clarified. A new bonus question will happen in November whether the snow has fallen or not. If you predict no snow by New Years, five year forum ban and shame on you. :eek:


TEMPLATE that entrants can use:

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... SNOWDATE

Anyone who predicts a snowdate without a month will automatically be entering an October date so be careful to specify day and month.

Did you enter thetonynator's warm spell max temperature contest? Deadline is end of Tuesday.

cherryghost

IMT.....10.9
MAX....21.9
MIN....-4
PRC....95%
SUN....110%

pauldry

IMT.....11.2
MAX....19.3
MIN....-2.8
PRC....75%
SUN....115%
SNOWDATE.....NOV28TH

NIALL D

IMT...........10.5
MAX..........21.7
MIN...........-3.2
PRC...........81%
SUN..........105%
SNOWDATE..NOV 19th

Harps

10.0 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.1 ..... 90 ..... 95 ..... DEC 07

drdeadlift

IMT.....13
MAX....18
MIN....4
PRC....69%
SUN....77%
SNOWDATE.....jan 4th 2012

only one

IMT....10.1
MAX...20
MIN....2
PRC....59%
SUN...67%
SNOWDATE.........NOV 18TH

Strasser

IMT....10.8
MAX...18.5
MIN.... - 1.5
PRC....110%
SUN...92%
SNOWDATE.........Dec 30TH

snowstreams

IMT.....10.2
MAX....18.8
MIN....-3.2
PRC....95%
SUN....105%
SNOWDATE.....December 3rd

octo

IMT ..... 10.0
MAX ..... 21
MIN ..... -1.5
PRC ..... 110
SUN ..... 95
SNOWDATE.....December 25

JackieChan

IMT ..... 11.1
MAX ..... 22.1
MIN ..... -2
PRC ..... 95
SUN ..... 95
SNOWDATE.....Nov 27

Iancar29

IMT.....11.0
MAX....22.0
MIN.... -3
PRC.... 110
SUN.... 90
SNOWDATE NOV 15th

Deep Easterly

10.8 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.3c ..... 80% ..... 100% ..... 28th November.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

IMT....11.2
MAX...22.4
MIN....-4
PRC....105
SUN....90
SNOWDATE....Nov 4th

Come on MT, show your hand !! :pac:

4Sheets

10.5 ..... 20.0 ..... -3.0 .....110..... 100 ..... Nov 21

11 ..... 21.4 ..... -3 ..... 93 ..... 97 ..... NOV 18th

homolumo

10.7 ..... 20.3 ..... -2.9c ..... 89% ..... 95% ..... 25th December

H2UMrsRobinson

IMT 11.1 MAX 19.5 MIN 2.1 PRC 101% SUN 94 SNOWDATE 11th november

talkabout

10.1 ..... 20.4 ..... -3.7 ..... 90 ..... 105 ..... NOV 28th

200motels

IMT...........12.1
MAX..........21.9
MIN...........-1.6
PRC...........61%
SUN..........129%
SNOWDATE..Dec 18th

mickger844posts

10.5..... 21.5 ..... -2.4 ..... 80 ..... 115 ..... Nov. 30th

M.T. Cranium

So far, no guesses for an October snowfall, but I will break that trend ...

9.8 ..... 20.1 ..... -4.5 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... 23 OCT

(not saying it will stick around very long)

fizzycyst

10.1..... 18.5 ..... -3.7 ..... 105 ..... 98 ..... Nov 03

Redsunset

10.9.
21
-1.5
125
85
February 5

thetonynator

redsunset wrote: »

February 5

You disgust me . . .:P





7.9 ..... 20.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 105 ..... 75 ..... 27 NOV

okla

IMT.....10.6
MAX....21.5
MIN....-3.1
PRC.... 90
SUN....105%
SNOWDATE..... Dec 5th

Su Campu

10.2 ... 22.5 ... -1.5 ... 130 ... 95 ... Nov 28th

Just to point out something. The unmanned stations can erronously report "Snow" during very low-visibility conditions, such as fog. Since we're now entering a high-risk fog period, we should not take any such "Snow" reports at face value until they can be verified.

This is from Met Éireann's site:
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

The data presented on this page are the latest available for each station. These data are presented here soon after the time of measurement and have not been subjected to extensive checking. Many of the measurements come from automated instruments with no human supervision. These are generally very reliable but, as with any system, human or automatic, errors can happen from time to time. During automatic operation, the "Weather" is estimated by an optical instrument. Classification of weather-type is significantly more difficult than measuring temperature or pressure and the result is occasionally incorrect. In particular, you may see a very occasional report of snow during periods of foggy weather.


Any measurement must be viewed in the context of the other parameters measured at the same time, both at the same station and at other neighbouring stations.

waterways

11.1 ... 20.1 ... -2.8 ... 93 ... 115 ... 09 NOV

kindredspirit

11.2 ... 21.4 ... -2.0 ... 98 ... 110 ... 30th Nov.

dasa29

10.3 ... 20.5 ... -2 ... 110 ... 90 ... Nov 19th(my birthday:D)

DOCARCH

10.9 ... 21.3 ... -1.6 ... 108 ... 98 ... 05th Dec.

John mac

10.3 ..... 19.7 .....-1.0 ..... 100..... 121 .....03 Dec

Joe Public

10.9 ..... 22.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 89 ..... 129 ..... Nov 9th

jd

10.9 ..... 21.8 ..... -2.1 ..... 125 ..... 95 ..... nov 24

traecy1

10.3.....20.2.....0.2.....95.....100.....December 10th

dacogawa

10.6 ..... 21.3 ..... -2.8 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... 5 Nov

Deep Easterly

MT, if ok could I up my rainfall total guess up to 110%? feeling increasingly uncomfortable about the 80% I previously put down.

Sponge Bob

10.4 ....21.8 ....-1.9 ....121 ....102 ....Nov 29th

jma

IMT .............. 10.3 °C
MAX ............. 18.4 °C
MIN ............. -3.5 °C
PRC .............. 100%
SUN .............. 98%
SNOWDATE .... NOV 2nd

nilhg

10.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.1 ..... 105 ..... 100 ..... Dec 15th

Lumi

10.5 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.6 ..... 117 ..... 93 ..... December 15

Speak Now

10.8 ..... 20 ..... -3 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... December 31st

Rebelbrowser

10.0 ..... 18.7 ..... -2.1 ..... 92..... 108 ..... 22 November

Tae laidir

9.9 ..... 18.6 ..... -3.3 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... dec31

rameire

10.0 ..... 19.6 ..... -3.6 ..... 96 ..... 89 ..... Nov 15th

MiNdGaM3

10.9 ..... 18.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 90 ..... 105 ..... NOV 20th

Sorry for the late entry, have been in Greece enjoying the sun on a field trip:D

Danno

9.9 ..... 21.4 ..... -2.9 ..... 140 ..... 95 ..... Oct 27th

SeaFields

9.4 ..... 17.5 ..... -3.2 .....100 ..... 70.....DEC1

jambofc

10.3...18.5c....-1c....90%....95%.....24thdec

M.T. Cranium

Closed to further entries now ... welcome new contestants this month.

Forecasts for October 2011
______________________________________

Forecaster ............. IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Snowdate
________________________________________________________________

drdeadlift ............... 13.0 ..... 18.0 ..... +4.0 ..... 069 ..... 077 ..... 04-01
200motels ...............12.1 ..... 21.9 ..... -1.6 ..... 061 ..... 129 ..... 18-12
pauldry .................. 11.2 ..... 19.3 ..... -2.8 ..... 075 ..... 115 ..... 28-11
t|nt|n ................... 11.2 ..... 22.4 ...... -4.0 ..... 105 ..... 090 ..... 04-11
kindredspirit ............ 11.2 ..... 21.4 ..... -2.0 ..... 098 ..... 110 ..... 30-11
waterways ............. 11.1 ..... 20.1 ..... -2.8 ..... 093 ..... 115 ..... 09-11
JackieChan ............. 11.1 ..... 22.1 ..... -2.0 ..... 095 ..... 095 ..... 27-11
H2UMrsRobinson ...... 11.1 ..... 19.5 ..... +2.1 ..... 101 ..... 094 ..... 11-11
hellboy99 ............... 11.0 ..... 21.4 ..... -3.0 ..... 093 ..... 097 ..... 18-11
Iancar29 ................ 11.0 ..... 22.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 15-11
MiNdGaM3* ............ 10.9 ..... 18.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 20-11
nilhg ..................... 10.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.1 ..... 105 ..... 100 ..... 15-12
cherryghost ........... 10.9 ..... 21.9 ..... -4.0 ..... 095 ..... 110 ..... ??
redsunset ............. 10.9 ..... 21.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 125 ..... 085 ..... 05-02
DOCARCH .............. 10.9 ..... 21.3 ..... -1.6 ..... 108 ..... 098 ..... 05-12
Joe Public .............. 10.9 ..... 22.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 089 ..... 129 ..... 09-11
jd ........................ 10.9 ..... 21.8 ..... -2.1 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 24-11
Deep Easterly ......... 10.8 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.3 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 28-11
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 10.8 ..... 20.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 31-12
Strasser ................ 10.8 ..... 18.5 ..... -1.5 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 30-12
homolumo .............. 10.7 ..... 20.3 ..... -2.9 ..... 089 ..... 095 ..... 25-12
dacogawa ............. 10.6 ..... 21.3 ..... -2.8 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 05-11
okla ..................... 10.6 ..... 21.5 ..... -3.1 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 05-12
Fionagus ............... 10.5 ..... 20.7 ..... -2.6 ..... 117 ..... 093 ..... 15-12

Con Sensus .......... 10.5 ..... 20.5 ..... -2.1 ..... 100 ..... 095 ..... 28-11

NIALL D ................ 10.5 ..... 21.7 ..... -3.2 ..... 081 ..... 105 ..... 19-11
4Sheets ................ 10.5 ..... 20.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 21-11
mickger844posts ..... 10.5 ..... 21.5 ..... -2.4 ..... 080 ..... 115 ..... 30-11
Sponge Bob ........... 10.4 ..... 21.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 121 ..... 102 ..... 29-11
jma ...................... 10.3 ..... 18.4 ..... -3.5 ..... 100 ..... 098 ..... 02-11
jambofc* .............. 10.3 ..... 18.5 ..... -1.0 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 24-12
traecy1 ................ 10.3 ..... 20.2 ..... +0.2 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 10-12
dasa29 ................ 10.3 ..... 20.5 ..... -2.0 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 19-11
John mac .............. 10.3 ..... 19.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 100 ..... 121 ..... 03-12
snowstreams ......... 10.2 ..... 18.8 ..... -3.2 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 03-12
Su Campu ............. 10.2 ..... 22.5 ..... -1.5 ..... 130 ..... 095 ..... 28-11
only one ............... 10.1 ..... 20.0 ..... +2.0 ..... 059 ..... 067 ..... 18-11
talkabout .............. 10.1 ..... 20.4 ..... -3.7 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 28-11
fizzycyst ............... 10.1..... 18.5 ..... -3.7 ..... 105 ..... 098 ..... 03-11
Harps ................... 10.0 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.1 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 07-12
Rebelbrowser ......... 10.0 ..... 18.7 ..... -2.1 ..... 092 ..... 108 ..... 22-11
rameire* ............... 10.0 ..... 19.6 ..... -3.6 ..... 096 ..... 089 ..... 15-11
octo .................... 10.0 ..... 21.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 25-12
Tae laidir ................ 9.9 ..... 18.6 ..... -3.3 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... 31-12
Danno* .................. 9.9 ..... 21.4 ..... -2.9 ..... 140 ..... 095 ..... 27-10
M.T. Cranium ........... 9.8 ..... 20.1 ..... -4.5 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... 23-10
SeaFields* .............. 9.4 ..... 17.5 ..... -3.2 ..... 100 ..... 070 ..... 01-12
thetonynator ........... 7.9 ..... 20.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 105 ..... 075 ..... 27-11

* late entries, penalty pts if >60

)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))


Quite a variety of forecasts this month, from very mild to very cold, and trending a bit dry after the wet spell of the past week. The snowfall forecast seems to have spread out over a very wide spectrum but consensus falls near the end of November. Cherryghost, if you see this, post a snowfall forecast if you wish by end of this week and we'll accept that.

Let's hope it doesn't snow at Knock on Thursday, I suppose, or this bonus question will become a real lame duck event.

Speak Now

Dublin Airport has set the early max for the month.

20.4 which is higher than what half of us forecast.