Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

wakka12 · 13-03-2018 3:29pm

Id like to see a bit more snow..but Im guessing it won't be anything crazy will it? a few inches that will melt a lot during the day at low levels?

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2018 3:37pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

Can someone wake him up for a morning update...

I'll update this evening. Work :pac:

Still possible main cold and snow risk may miss us to the south in to the continent.

Kamili · 13-03-2018 3:45pm

I think Kermit must currently be looking at the models and doing:

tenor.gif?itemid=4883582

An Ri rua · 13-03-2018 3:52pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Still possible main cold and snow risk may miss us to the south in to the continent.

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I'll update this evening. Work

^^^Have you explained that there's snow coming and people need every angle covered.
Pfft... employers.....

daheff · 13-03-2018 3:56pm

MissMoc wrote: »

We had thunder snow during Emma in the midlands.

Damn you :pac::pac::pac:

sryanbruen · 13-03-2018 4:44pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Well the last time Ireland had a good summer with a yr ending in 8 was back in the 1800s lol

The strangest thing about that also is that the last time a Summer ending in "8" was warmer than average was that it was an exceptionally warm Summer. This year was 1868. It included the hottest July on record at the time with a CET of 18.3c, which equals the CET for July 2013. June was very warm at 15.5c too with August rather warm at 16.8c. The Summer CET was 16.9c. The last time the CET was up that high recently in Summer is 2006 which had a CET of 17.2c. The warmest since then is 2016 with a CET of 16.4c.

July 1868 had a notable heatwave with a temperature recording of 38.1c (100.5F) at Tonbridge, Kent on the 22nd. However, this temperature is unofficial as it was not recorded at standard exposure. The official UK highest temperature is 38.5c at Faversham, Kent on August 10th 2003.

Though the outlooks seem not very good at all for Summer 2018 except GLOSEA5 from the UK Met Office shows a Summer 2017-like situation (which to be honest I wouldn't mind in comparison to the outlooks for Summer 2018 but certainly not brilliant), I will always remain hopeful of seeing July 2013-like charts (or even a 2010 would do me any day, doesn't have to be fantastically warm for me to consider good) within the 3-4 day timeframe on the models. Summer 2017 was looking very good 'til ENSO came and messed up the day as La Nina established itself from what looked like was going to be an El Nino in June.

Oh, look at me.... talking about Summer in a cold/snow thread. Ok, I'll stop

.

Oops69 · 13-03-2018 5:35pm

I’ll have to ask my employer for a snow bank holiday back if the snow disrupts my plans for the holiday weekend !

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2018 6:08pm

I'll give an update after the ECM this evening. It could be a more benign still cold but less cold outcome, it could be near miss or could be full on.

Some real uncertainty in relation to Ireland this weekend which won't be resolved this evening.

Exciting eh?

In the mean time see the model update thread for updates too.

uck51js9zml2yt · 13-03-2018 6:11pm

Kamili wrote: »

I think Kermit must currently be looking at the models and doing:

I wish he'd stop looking at models and get back to weather forecasting.

There are more important things that London fashion week.:PAC:

km79 · 13-03-2018 6:14pm

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Graces7 wrote: »

Been outside to see if Croagh Patrick still has snow as they say here that that means yes, more snow, but it is playing coy and hiding head in the clouds

Please let me know if there is snow on cone of Croagh Patrick and/or if you see Punxsatawney Phil.

It’s like Groundhog Day around here
Again

Graces7 · 13-03-2018 6:42pm

km79 wrote: »

It’s like Groundhog Day around here
Again

Funny!

Calibos · 13-03-2018 6:47pm

Reckless Abandonment · 13-03-2018 7:32pm

36 hour window for snow, then cold and frosty for a few days, all a little meh.. if this was Dec-Feb be all in but mid March i want warmth

sryanbruen · 13-03-2018 7:34pm

Yes please! This is what I've been asking for.

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

By Monday ECM is quite like the UKMO over Ireland, I.e a high in place, cold nights but pleasant sunny days, it is a more amplified pattern though with WAA going north over Iceland.

SleetAndSnow · 13-03-2018 7:42pm

irishfeen wrote: »

Is the DWD ICON usually reliable?

Hopefully not otherwise it looks like the Cork Snowshield has been returned to its rightful owner

irishfeen · 13-03-2018 7:47pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Hopefully not otherwise it looks like the Cork Snowshield has been returned to its rightful owner

:D:D

gabeeg · 13-03-2018 8:07pm

How would you lot feel about a third Easterly at the end of the month?

ECM0-240.GIF?13-0

nacho libre · 13-03-2018 8:12pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Can you say that with confidence Nacho? I do hope you're right but some of these charts would suggest the weather may become a problem around London...

Well it's what i've been told. I asked about it during the beast we had some time ago(although it feels like it was only two weeks ago:o) and they told me it would take a serious dumping for a game to be cancelled.

sryanbruen · 13-03-2018 8:16pm

Almost April and Eurasia is in the grips of mid-Winter, what is going in with nature at the moment? :P

nacho libre · 13-03-2018 8:21pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Almost April and Eurasia is in the grips of mid-Winter, what is going in with nature at the moment? :P

It's M.T. Cranium's fault, him with his Canadian Warming. Is it a coincidence he has booked a holiday...? Some say he has been spotted with Gerry Murphy and George Sunsnow in warmer climes.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2018 8:30pm

Updated OP. Still changes to come, nothing set in stone yet.

Graces7 · 13-03-2018 8:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Updated OP. Still changes to come, nothing set in stone yet.

Mayo is doomed AGAIN! All we get here is gales and deluges... Although I was glad when Ophelia turned left at the border of Mayo.

RobbingBandit · 13-03-2018 9:48pm

I remember real honest Thundersnow back in 2009, blue lightning it is a thing of wonder I'd eat ten thousand tins of tuna just to see it again, not all at once though and it'll need to be some epic Thundersnow

Meteorite58 · 13-03-2018 10:01pm

https://twitter.com/metdesk/status/973596653868462080

fatherted1969 · 13-03-2018 11:03pm

Have a half marathon in mullingar on Sat morning. What's the chances of me getting around without too much wind ?

downwiththatsor · 13-03-2018 11:08pm

fatherted1969 wrote: »

Have a half marathon in mullingar on Sat morning. What's the chances of me getting around without too much wind ?

Whats too much wind? this is 9am

18_87_windvector.png?cb=887

roosterman71 · 13-03-2018 11:09pm

fatherted1969 wrote: »

Have a half marathon in mullingar on Sat morning. What's the chances of me getting around without too much wind ?

Maybe lay off the beans and cabbage Friday

Rebelbrowser · 13-03-2018 11:10pm

18z gfs not good.....

sryanbruen · 13-03-2018 11:14pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

18z gfs not good.....

I'm loving it.

downwiththatsor · 13-03-2018 11:19pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'm loving it.

Dry and cool / cold?

sryanbruen · 13-03-2018 11:19pm

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Dry and cool / cold?

Yes, bring it on!

km79 · 13-03-2018 11:53pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

18z gfs not good.....

Define not good .........

Villain · 13-03-2018 11:56pm

Never discount the UKMO is the message from today, let’s see what tomorrow brings but I expect this event will be hyped way too much, interesting charts and a nice cold blast likely but don’t worry about taking the snow shovels out would be my thinking at present. I’d actually be more worried about flooding in next 24 hours in south, as it’s likely to cause more issues.

pauldry · 14-03-2018 12:03am

Yeah i reckon it will be partly cloudy breezy and 6c in most places on St Patricks Day then around 0 to -2c that night. A few frosty nights but Emma was a once in 36 year event. Wont see that again for a long time.

Very dramatic pull back from GFS but Id trust that. Dry will win out on this occasion. Mayge a light dusting of snow Saturday night on East.

wakka12 · 14-03-2018 12:14am

Meh can't say Im too disappointed by this..woulda been nice but sure we got our treat already

Donegal Storm · 14-03-2018 12:32am

Plenty of nice Spring sunshine on the 18z, whats not to like

200motels · 14-03-2018 12:45am

The BBC is on board with this.

M.T. Cranium · 14-03-2018 2:25am

nacho libre wrote: »

It's M.T. Cranium's fault, him with his Canadian Warming. Is it a coincidence he has booked a holiday...? Some say he has been spotted with Gerry Murphy and George Sunsnow in warmer climes.

No I have to stay on at the Scottish research station for the time being, holiday postponed to early April, look for warm spell then. :pac:

BLIZZARD7 · 14-03-2018 5:27am

Now looking like a glancing blow based on current guidance, core of the cold is into south East England/Nothern France. High pressure close to our North eventually sinking down over us.

If the current charts are accurate this won't be notable, just a few snow showers in the East Saturday night. Chilly and frosty other than that, hopefully some good sunshine.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-03-2018 7:17am

ECM still wants to bring snow showers packing in to the east coast Saturday evening and overnight.

ECM0-96.GIF?14-12

Lying snow won't last long on Sunday.

Wine Goddess · 14-03-2018 9:00am

Met Eireann saying any snow will be scattered and light Saturday night into Sunday on 0755 radio forecast.

irishrover99 · 14-03-2018 9:11am

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Met Eireann saying any snow will be scattered and light Saturday night into Sunday on 0755 radio forecast.

YES. Hopefully that true

Rebelbrowser · 14-03-2018 1:20pm

Just to keep this thread alive!

6z runs have arrested the southward corrections and on balance moved a small bit back north. Little doubt now this is a 36 hour event from late evening Saturday to early hours of Monday but could still be notable in that window. ICON is our friend again and shows plenty snow potential in South and East on Sunday.

Pretty cold too, with -10 uppers over the whole country for a while on Sunday.

power pants · 14-03-2018 2:07pm

Any time it snows Irish media will now call it the beast from the east.

irishrover99 · 14-03-2018 2:55pm

power pants wrote: »

Any time it snows Irish media will now call it the beast from the east.

unless its coming from the west,obviously :ermm:

JCX BXC · 14-03-2018 3:08pm

irishrover99 wrote: »

unless its coming from the west,obviously :ermm:

You would be surprised! The Irish media are not very intelligent.

Lucreto · 14-03-2018 3:11pm

I have to stop family panic buying bread.

They seem to think we are in for more really heavy snow this weekend.

I had to tell them it's most of a glancing blow and a few showers if we are lucky.

I am in Naas and hit pretty hard who weeks ago so they wanted to be more prepared.

pilly · 14-03-2018 3:18pm

irishrover99 wrote: »

unless its coming from the west,obviously :ermm:

Pest from the West is the future name for any snow, wind etc. that comes that way. :pac:

D9Male · 14-03-2018 3:19pm

The whore from the Nor'

tiegan · 14-03-2018 3:27pm

My favourite comment about storm Emma was the "Ho from below"

Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

Comments