Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 13 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy this morning with scattered drizzle mostly north and west, then gradually turning brighter with partly cloudy skies, light to moderate westerly breezes (stronger near Connacht and Ulster coasts). Highs 13 to 16 milder in the south.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with clear intervals leading to some rather cold readings in the central and inland counties, slight risk of ground frost, lows generally 3-7 C but milder northwest coast.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, pleasantly warm for most areas (by recent standards), highs 14-18 C (could touch 19-20 C in warmer inland southeast). Clouding over in west late afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, mild, lows 8-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, early showers clearing east then more developing west, becoming heavy at times. Highs 16-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or periods of light rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler again, not as grim as last week hopefully, but with showers at times. Highs around 15 C. This spell should ease during the following week which could turn quite warm eventually.

Following a potentially significant weather event, as there appears to have been a large volcanic eruption in Eritrea, with the ash cloud heading west towards Sudan. This appears to have happened in Nabro, a stratovolcano that has not erupted in historic times. (some early reports mention Dubbi or Dubbo to the north but satellite imagery confirms the source as Nabro) ... potentially, there could be impacts on visibility and optics over at least parts of southern Europe and west Africa, the Middle East ... but there would be no direct impacts on Ireland from present information.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Scattered heavy storms in the inland southeast, hot over Texas and the southwest, cool and dry most areas in the plains states but rain or showers in the Dakotas moving through the southern parts of the Canadian prairies also. Bland near normal conditions on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine managed to burn through a fairly extensive layer of marine cloud most of the day, 18-19 C.

Wednesday, 15 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Rather cloudy this morning, with light showers in central counties moving through Leinster, but some sunny breaks to follow with isolated showers developing in a rather warm, humid southwest flow (winds 10-20 mph). Rainfalls mostly 1-3 mms. Highs 17-19 C except 15-17 C northwest and north. About 4-8 hours of sunshine mostly mid-day to afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with showers in the west, mainly dry elsewhere, mild, some fog developing, lows 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with showers, some heavy or thundery, highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, some outbreaks of light or moderate rain, but a few places may see a bit of sunshine too as the systems are rather disorganized, lows around 7 C and highs 14-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Showers, becoming breezy by mid-day (W 20-35 mph) and rather cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... With any luck, a weak ridge will clear skies for part or all of the daylight hours between the departing Saturday cloud and the oncoming system for Monday. Lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, 15 C. Moderate southeast to south winds. Fog near coasts and hills.

OUTLOOK ... Models are stuck in a similar near normal or slightly cooler pattern with showery intervals, but the trend has been improving so I am cautiously optimistic that there could be a warm spell later this month towards the last few days.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The trend in the past week has been for the formerly widespread heat to become confined to source in Texas and the southwest. On Tuesday, Oklahoma got into the heat briefly then had a round of severe storms. Otherwise, the hot air masses are dry, and further north many places are also dry but a few degrees below normal. Scattered storms fired along the fronts further east in the inland southeast. The west coast, meanwhile, remains mostly cloudy and rather cool.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was cloudy with a few brief sunny breaks, and evening showers, highs around 15-16 C.

Friday, 17 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Periods of rain, heavy at times, will continue in the southeast and east while soon ending in the west. Partly cloudy skies will follow in the western half of Ireland, while the morning rain will slowly taper to drizzle in the east then leave mostly cloudy skies. Further west, the afternoon may turn showery again with a slight risk of thunder. Highs will reach 13-15 C but could rise a bit higher in some central locations with enough sunshine later this morning. Rainfalls already underway should total 20-30 mms in the eastern counties but only 5-10 mms in the west including the later showers.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, becoming foggy especially northern inland counties, mild with SW to W breezes 10-20 mph, lows near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning cloud and some showers lingering but a slow clearing trend across the south, with longer sunny intervals in west Munster. Brighter almost everywhere by late afternoon. Breezy (W 15-30 mph) and feeling a little cool at 14-15 C.

SUNDAY ... After a cool, mainly clear start with lows of 5-7 C, expect variable cloud, some sunshine at times, and patchy drizzle or light showers mainly confined to west coast and north. Rain may spread into the southwest towards evening. Somewhat warmer with highs 16-17 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, 10-20 mms potential, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C although could rise a bit higher in west and southwest where rain may end before mid-afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Showery, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cool and showery mid-week, improving trend late in the week, potential for warmer than average temperatures starting around Friday 24th. Models show this warmth persisting into early July with some maps looking like mid-20s potentially, although flow will be southwest rather than the more reliable (for heat) southeast. Marine cloud issues may add a complication to this outlook for south and west coasts. But if we're going to see some heat this summer, these maps are fairly encouraging.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy showers and severe storms becoming rather widespread on Thursday and through the current overnight hours in the central plains. Hot and dry weather persists in Texas and further west. Cool and dry in the Great Lakes region, and showers or storms in the mid-Atlantic states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Maybe you were expecting smoke from fires, but those were pretty small and far away from the Craniad. The day was in fact quite pleasant except for the angst, shame and despair felt by almost everyone but me (as a weather forecaster, I have already crossed and burned these bridges). Highs reached about 20 C and IQs were mostly in the lower eighties.

UPDATE _ Saturday, 5 p.m.
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Heavy showers with some thunder will continue to affect parts of the east and southeast until about 8-9 p.m. although rainfall amounts will vary from 3 to 5 mms additional in some places to 10 or 15 mms in a few spots. South Dublin and north Wicklow counties may see the heaviest but there could also be a cluster of heavy showers later moving through Dublin city region.

This rainfall develops from lighter showers in Galway and the midlands moving generally southeast and appears to be a meso-scale feature associated with a trough hanging back from the low which crossed Ulster and Scotland today. I have to say that the models, even the usually reliable high-resolution Hirlam, in general did not show as much development with this meso-scale feature as we have seen. Hence in layman's terms the afternoon and evening are becoming a washout in some areas. Parts of west Munster and Ulster have seen some breaks in the overcast and for these regions rainfall has already ended or will only amount to further trace amounts.

Still expecting a gradual clearing to develop once this cluster of heavy showers moves away to the east later this evening and Sunday continues to look generally dry, while Monday and Tuesday look wet again.

Monday, 20 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloud followed by rain will spread slowly north but much of the day will remain dry with morning sunshine north of about Galway to Dublin. Heaviest rain 10-20 mms in west central counties. Highs 16-18 C northeast inland, 14-16 C elsewhere. The south could also see some late sunny intervals but sea fog will drift inland near the Cork and Waterford coasts. Although not too breezy in general, some places will see brief SE 15-25 mph onshore winds.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming rather sporadic across the north, with partly cloudy skies further south, mild or very mild, lows 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of rain redeveloping across the north, and then later in the day heavy showers developing across the south. Some thunder with these, and widespread rainfalls of 20-30 mms by late day or overnight. Highs about 16 C south and 14 C north.

TUESDAY NIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Showery with some heavy downpours, thunder and hail possible, winds becoming moderate to strong westerly then northwesterly 20-40 mph, and further rainfalls of 10-20 mms. Overnight lows of about 10 C and daytime highs of 14-16 C. Some spot flooding during the early morning to mid-day hours.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, cool, showers with some hail and thunder, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, morning lows 5-8 C and afternoon highs 15-18 C but cloud and some rain possible in southwest late in the day.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers, misty or foggy in places, turning warmer, some hazy sunshine developing, highs 19-23 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 19-23 C.

OUTLOOK ... Considerably warmer next week too, but with some vigorous frontal passages and showers or thunderstorms with these, followed by slightly cooler air masses lasting a day or two before more warming occurs. In general, expect the period 25 June to 10 July to be 1-3 degrees above normal in temperature.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Another day of record heat in Texas and also Oklahoma, many places well above 40 C. Also hot and dry in the southwest. As many would have seen, cloudy and humid in the east, scattered showers that also couldn't catch Rory.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, humid, spits of drizzle at times but no accumulation, winds rather chilly when they gusted occasionally from south to about 20 mph.

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 5:30 p.m.
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls and possible severe storms this evening across central and eastern Ireland. A cluster of heavy showers has been moving through parts of Limerick and north Tipps, and is expected to intensify this evening moving through parts of Laois, Offaly, Kildare, Dublin and Meath. Expect this to reach Dublin about 8 p.m. ... potential for 20-30 mms rain leading to spot flooding, some thunder and hail and slight risk of strong wind gusts to 50 mph. This should clear the east coast by about 10-11 p.m.

The counties to the southeast of the alert zone may also see more isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms this evening.

Thursday, 23 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks, cool, showers and isolated thundershowers with hail possible, rainfalls 3-7 mms Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster, 1-3 mms most other places. Highs 14-16 C. Winds WNW 15-30 mph. Expect 3-6 hours of sunshine with the better amounts in the southwest and east of the Wicklow Mountains.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, quite cool, lows 4-7 C, risk of ground frost in a few low-lying areas inland. Clouding over around dawn in the southwest.

FRIDAY ... Sunny to start in east, clouding over rapidly in west, leading to mid-day or afternoon rain, southerly winds, warm and humid except near south coast due to sea breezes and fog. Highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls west 10-15 mms, east dry until mid-day or afternoon.

SATURDAY ... After some overnight bursts of heavier rain, possibly thundery, warm and humid air will push north and the rain will be mostly confined to west and north, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C inland. Extensive low cloud or sea fog near south and west coasts drifting some distance inland at times. The warmest locations will likely be around Tipps, Laois and Offaly.

SUNDAY ... Very warm and humid, isolated showers or thunderstorms becoming heavy in the west by late afternoon and evening, mainly west-central to north ... lows 12 to 14 C and highs 22 to 24 C inland southeast, otherwise 20-22 C except 16-18 C outer south and west coasts. Winds increasing to SSW 15-30 mph.

MONDAY ... Morning showers and thunderstorms, winds becoming WSW 20-40 mph with some sunshine developing, lows near 15 C and highs near 21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler again for a few days, mostly cloudy with showers at times, highs 16-19 C, but the models are beginning to show some very warm weather patterns around 30 June to 2 July which, if they come to pass, could bring highs of 25 to 28 C well inland in southeast to south breezes. More periods of alternating warm/dry and cooler/showery spells would follow, but the average looks 1-3 degrees above normal.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms from the central Great Lakes south then southwest towards the Gulf coast. Some amounts of 50-100 mms rain and gusty winds, hail. Further east, the Atlantic coastal states are mostly cloudy, very warm and humid, highs 28-32 C. Widespread cool to near seasonable, dry weather north central states. Warm, dry near west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, quite warm to mid-day, 23 C then a dry cold front with some mid-level cloud passed and strong westerly winds developed locally gusting to 70 km/hr. Temperatures fell off sharply to 15 C. This is encouraging because it is the normal dry summer pattern developing with a reinforcement of offshore high pressure.

UPDATE _ Friday, 5:15 p.m.
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ALERT issued for dense fog likely to develop over most of Ireland late this evening and overnight. Warmer air with higher dew points near 14 C will ooze northeast and the current rain will taper off to drizzle but this will gradually turn into dense fog especially near south and west facing coasts and over (slightly) higher terrain. The surface warm front will push gradually through west Munster this evening and it may turn briefly quite warm around Kerry, inland Cork and Limerick before sunset. Further north and east this warmer air will be waiting over the foggy inversion layer all night before mixing down to the ground on Saturday morning, so various places will get into this warmer air whenever the fog disperses, which may not occur in some places close to the south coast as well as some parts of the northwest, but should happen reasonably early (0800-0930) for most other places. As a result, tomorrow will feel a lot warmer except in places mentioned near coasts, not only will the temperature be up around 20 C but dew points will be quite high making it feel very close.

With the warmer air moving into the southwest, models are currently showing a slight risk of thunder this evening from about central Kerry east to Waterford, and about as far north as Shannon to Kilkenny.

Sunday, 26 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Sunny intervals and very warm with highs 19-24 C except near the south and northwest coasts ... the south coast will be cloudy due to elevated fog that will be streaming in on S-SW winds, keeping highs near 18, and the western part of Mayo and later some other parts of the northwest will be under a band of showers from a slow-moving cold front. Eventually this front may set off a few thundershowers in Connacht and Ulster, but these may be isolated; rainfalls of 3-6 mms are likely in these regions, and isolated showers could develop late afternoon or evening elsewhere but most places will stay dry as the front will be quite weak.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, slight chance of a shower, most places dry except 2-5 mms of rain across north Ulster ... lows 12-14 C in southeast, about 8-11 C for northwest. Winds fairly light after sunset.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals for the east, partly cloudy west, slight chance of isolated showers, once again, most places dry. Highs about 16-18 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers mostly in Connacht, lows near 7 or 8 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, pleasant, low humidity, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny for most places, more cloud possible near south and west coast, a bit warmer, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine, warm, slight chance of cloud and drizzle in coastal northwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 20 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Warm, partly cloudy to sunny, isolated showers mostly in far north ... lows near 10 C and highs near 22 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms developing in the Dakotas, may exacerbate the flooding near Minot ND ... hot and dry across the south and southwest, on Saturday some parts of Texas returned to the 110 F range and may do so again today ... east coast somewhat cooler and a few isolated thundershowers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks and light showers in the area, highs near 17 C.

Enjoy the warm weather -- on a Sunday too

Tuesday, 28 June, 2011

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with a few showers mainly west and north at first, spreading to some parts of the inland south and east but rainfall amounts generally small, 1-3 mms. Some places dry all day with some good spells of sunshine. Moderate westerly breezes and highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy to start, showers ending, gradual clearing, chilly with lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals mainly south and east, showers possible across the west and north, some thundery, but with low humidity across the south and generally good drying conditions there, highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny to mid-day for most places, more cloud possible near south and west coast, becoming rather cloudy in the afternoon but mainly dry, also a bit warmer, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C. Winds light in south and moderate westerly in north.

FRIDAY ... Some intervals of hazy sunshine, rather warm, slight chance of cloud and drizzle in coastal northwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Seasonably warm in the south but somewhat cool in the more overcast north, partly cloudy to sunny south, showers that may occasionally be heavy and thundery, mostly in north ... lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C south, 15-17 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The week of 4-8 July may prove to be near normal in temperature and unsettled but not overly wet in a somewhat disturbed westerly flow. My research suggests that the next strong warming interval might occur in the second half of July and this may be the hottest part of the summer.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy thunderstorms in the Great Lakes region today, warm and humid eastern states, rather cool and dry northern plains states, hot and dry southern plains and southwest, inland west, cloudy on the west coast and near normal temperatures. A major warming trend is underway in western Canada which has been cool and wet much of the past two months.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a rather cloudy day with a high of about 19 C, feeling rather warm despite the lack of direct sunshine (sun dimly visible behind higher cloud layers). A few light showers later in the day.

Wednesday, 29 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Showers with some hail and thunder this morning, spreading rapidly east, followed by clearing in western counties ... just a few isolated showers may develop after that clearing trend, but the heavier showers will become more confined to the east, especially the northeast. Rainfall amounts generally 2-5 mms but could reach 10 mms in some showers, parts of the south coast could escape as development is mainly over land. Winds SW 20 to 30 mph at times this morning, veering more to WNW 20-30 mph this afternoon. Highs 14-17 C. Temperatures may drop off during heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Clearing and becoming quite chilly for late June, lows 4-7 C but closer to 10 C west coast.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, some cloudy periods for the west and north but only isolated showers and most places dry. Highs 16-18 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with decent sunny intervals for the east and central counties, south coast, but cloud increasing on the west coast near mid-afternoon. Rain may arrive there by evening. Lows near 7 C and highs 18-20.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some rain at times in west, slowly spreading northeast, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C. Rainfalls 3-5 mms.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, some showers or periods of light rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. Rainfalls 3-5 mms.

OUTLOOK ... The following week is likely to be rather cool for early July and unsettled with 5-15 mms of rain in total. Expect a gradual increase in temperatures as we move into mid-July and possibly a warm spell or even a modified heat wave in later July.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Large parts of the north central states near normal under high pressure, while a cold front moves further east into New England from Ontario, bringing some heavy thunderstorms that have also broken out in the mid-Atlantic states. Texas remains hot and dry except the far south, where cloud from Tropical Storm Arlene (the first named storm of the North Atlantic season) is moving west today into north central Mexico by tonight. Meanwhile, very warm air is moving across the Rockies into western Canada for a change.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was cloudy with sprinkles of rain at times and rather warm and humid, high of about 21 C. It has turned a bit cooler since sunset.

Friday, 1 July, 2011
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Please note, I am posting this forecast earlier than usual as I am having internet connection problems at my home base and need to take advantage of my only nearby internet station which closes at 0500 your time. As Friday is a holiday in Canada you may find no update to this forecast until I can get my service restored. Another forecaster may help out in that event.

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, more likely in the east ... light rain or drizzle may try to move onshore in the far west late in the day but overall a dry day for most with highs 16-19 C, highest in the southeast. Winds light southerly for most, SSW 15-30 mph on outer west coast.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, some hazy clear spells, lows 8-10 C. Drizzle or fog and mist on west coast at times.

SATURDAY ... East, south and central counties partly cloudy and reasonably warm, highs near 19 C ... west and north overcast with light rain at times, highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers becoming more widespread in north and west, may stay dry in east and south, highs 16-18 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, southerly winds, rain setting in towards late afternoon in western counties. Highs 17-19 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... This period looks showery with potential for some moderately heavy rainfalls by mid-week, highs only 14-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat less unsettled beyond mid-week and a slight rise in temperatures. I continue to think the first half of July will be generally cool to near normal and unsettled, second half likely to become warmer and if there is to be a heat wave this summer, expect it to arrive after the 20th.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and humid central plains, into northern plains on Thursday, some thunderstorms in ND, MN and eastern Manitoba spreading into n.w. Ontario. Hot and dry weather continues in Texas and southwest. Near normal across eastern third in weak northwest flow ahead of developing heat wave for them this weekend (a long weekend that starts on Friday for Canadians and lasts to the 4th at least for Americans).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Some sunny breaks but mostly cloudy, 17 C.

Sunday, 3 July, 2011
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TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and rather warm in eastern and central counties, although a cooling sea breeze may show up near coasts (south and east), highs 19-21 C ... mostly cloudy west, chance of occasional drizzle or low cloud and mist, highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, mild, a few hazy clear spells, lows near 10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, warm and remaining dry eastern and central counties, overcast with light rain at times west, highs 17-21 C, warmest inland Leinster and Ulster.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, periods of rain becoming heavy in west, rainfalls of 10 to 20 mms, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers spreading east to cover most regions for part of the day, a few brighter intervals developing in southwest later, lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C. Rainfalls 15-25 mms.

THURSDAY ... Further heavy showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, cool, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers ending for most, brighter southwest, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer again, lows near 8 C and highs near 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Variable skies but often fair next week, brief showery intervals, temperatures returning to near or above normal values.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Severe storms developed around Detroit and moved through nearby regions of Michigan, Ontario, Indiana and northern Ohio. It was hot and humid on Saturday over most of the east, and continuing hot and dry with isolated storms across the southern states. Warm also in the west for a change, with a weak front moving in overnight.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and very warm on Saturday, highs near 24, then cloudy by evening with a few light showers.

Tuesday, 5 July, 2011
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls in most parts of Ireland over the next three to four days with amounts of 25-50 mms likely, and 50-100 mms possible locally, spread out over the period but probably heaviest on Wednesday and Thursday for most.

TODAY ... Variable cloud (following the heavy morning showers now departing east Ulster) with further showers and a few heavy thunderstorms developing in a southerly wind of 20-30 mph. Hail likely with the thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of about 5-10 mms on average but potential for 20 mms locally. Watch for updates on any severe storm locations. Staying rather warm and humid with highs 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of light rain, fog and mist becoming widespread, winds dropping off in most places to 5-10 mph from south backing to east. Lows 10-12 C. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mms on average.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, heavy showers and risk of thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of 10-20 mms with potential for 20-30 mms locally. Highs near 15 C and generally light southeast winds. Hill fog and widespread mist at lower elevations in Connacht and Ulster.

THURSDAY ... Continued very unsettled with heavy showers and some thunderstorms, a further 20 mms of rain likely, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and some thunderstorms, rainfalls becoming more confined to Ulster and Leinster, amounts 10-20 mms, and lows near 10 C with highs near 16 C. Winds picking up across the west and south, reaching WNW 20-30 mph at times.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers but these mainly in the north and east, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C. Becoming quite breezy to windy in all regions with WNW 25-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat improved next week with longer dry spells centered around Tuesday but possibly a more unsettled period later in the week. Eventually there's a good chance of a longer dry spell in the second half of July.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Large portions of the eastern and central states were seasonably warm and dry, but severe storms moved through border regions south of Winnipeg, Manitoba including one or two tornadoes right along the border. Widespread thunderstorms across the southeast and Gulf coast. Hot and dry in the southwest and parts of Texas.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and quite warm with a cooling sea breeze locally, highs near 21 C here and 25 C further inland.

Thursday, 7 July, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, cool with outbreaks of rain, heavier in western counties this morning, with some thunder or hail possible, then spreading further east across central Ireland. Amounts quite variable, but at least 5-10 mms in most places, 10-30 mms in a band from Galway to Dublin extending northeast into Ulster later. Limited sunshine (compared to yesterday when some places had a full day's worth) that may average 2-5 hours. Highs of about 14 to 16 C. Hill fog and mist developing.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, some heavy in Leinster and Ulster, foggy or misty, cool, lows near 7 or 8 C. Rainfalls generally 5-15 mms.

FRIDAY ... Heavy showers with some thunder and hail, becoming mainly confined to north Leinster and Ulster, partly cloudy and breezy further south and west with more isolated showers, as winds increase to W 20-30 mph. Highs about 14 C in the rain and 16 C where clouds break. Rainfalls about 10 to 30 mms in northeast and 2-5 mms on average in south and southwest.

SATURDAY ... Gradual drying and brightening conditions as showers become isolated and end in parts of the south and west, longer sunny spells by afternoon and evening, winds WNW 20-40 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, slight risk of an isolated shower in Ulster, lows near 6 or 7 C and highs near 19 or 20 C. Light northwest winds falling variable or calm in west.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... A bit warmer again and dry in most areas, rain arriving late Tuesday in west, highs near 21 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Fairly settled across most of the eastern and central states, Great Lakes region, and warmer in far west, and still hot across the southwest and Texas. Showers and thunderstorms developing in many parts of the Canadian prairies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and very warm on Wednesday, highs of about 25 C and close to 30 C further inland.

Heavy rainfall alert with thunderstorms and hail possible for coastal Wicklow and Dublin ... main forecast in previous post ... add developing risk of torrential downpours this morning in coastal Wicklow and Dublin spreading north towards Drogheda and Louth. Local rainfalls of 20-30 mms could be recorded.

Sunday, 10 July, 2011
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TODAY ... Rather cloudy for the northern and central regions, partly cloudy to sunny further south. Morning showers will move through eastern Ulster and there may be a few light patches of drizzle further south at times, then by afternoon, isolated but possibly heavy showers could develop in a few places, but rainfalls of 1-3 mms will only be measured in perhaps a quarter to a third of the country at most. Sunshine meanwhile should last 7 to 10 hours in parts of the south. Highs of 17 to 20 C higher in southeast. Winds light northerly or variable.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with some clear spells in the south, lows 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy on average although more cloud in Ulster and north Connacht than elsewhere, and just one or two isolated showers, good spells of sunshine across the south. Highs 18-20 C. Light northeast winds may occasionally rise to 10-15 mph near east coast.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mostly dry and warm, lows 8-10 C and highs 19 to 21 C. Winds light and variable tending to east or southeast.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, slight chance of showers, lows near 10 C and highs generally 17-19 C but near 21 C in the inland south.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, more cloud to west and north with onshore drizzle or fog in coastal northwest, lows near 10 C and highs near 22 C south, 18 C north.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm, showers developing late in the day in Connacht, becoming windy at times from southwest, lows near 12 C and highs near 23 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy, showers or early thunderstorms then cooler in west to northwest winds, lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, breezy or windy, cool. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend cool spell now showing up on the charts seems likely to give way to warmer weather after one or two more days and there are still signs of a significant warm spell in late July.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers and thunderstorms in western Great Lakes and southeast states on Saturday, with seasonably warm dry weather in between covering most of the eastern U.S. Cool and windy in most of western Canada with rain continuing in northern parts of the prairie provinces (mostly north of the wheat regions in the boreal forest though).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny with a high near 20 C, breezy at times.

Wednesday, 13 July, 2011
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I remain cautiously optimistic that a warm, dry spell will develop towards the end of next week and into late July. Of course, this present spell of fine weather is nice enough, but it wouldn't qualify as a "heat wave" -- some of the maps in the 10-15 day period look warmer by 3-5 degrees and that sort of pattern can progress towards real heat which requires a continental source for the air flow rather than just the effects of the sun under nearby high pressure. Otherwise, the forecast hasn't changed much from yesterday as far as a rather unsettled and windy weekend is concerned. This may be a case of short term pain for long term gain.

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, warm. Light winds. Highs 21-23 C except closer to 16-18 C in outer coastal locations. Just a slight chance of cloud and isolated showers brushing past the southwest and northwest fringes later. Winds will continue very light but become more southerly today.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, chance of an isolated very light shower, but dry for most, lows 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine, warm in the east, increasing cloud, eventually some light rain or drizzle west, highs 20-22 C east and 17-19 C west. Winds picking up late in the day to SSW 15-25 mph west but remaining rather light across Leinster and Ulster.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing, possibly some thundershowers, winds becoming SW to W 20-40 mph, highs near 17 C west and 20 C east. Windy by evening off the west and south coasts, force 8 wind gusts likely. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms likely but mostly later in the day.

SATURDAY ... Windy and rather squally at times with passing showers of rain or hail, some thunder, but also some sunshine in the mix. (At the Open golf site in southeast England, more rain than sun, quite windy). Morning lows of about 12-14 C, then highs 15-18 C, winds W 20-40 mph with gusts to near 50 mph in exposed areas, marine regions will see force 9 gusts at times.

SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and unsettled, cool, showery, winds NW 20-40 mph, lows near 9 C and highs 14-17 C. Total weekend rainfalls in the range of 10 to 20 mms for most.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, breezy to windy, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement, leading to a warmer, dry spell late in the week and possibly lasting some time with high pressure building up near Ireland. In a light north to northeast flow, the highest temperatures now looking to be in the low 20s around the weekend would be near the south and southwest coasts. A pattern like this often leads to even warmer east or southeast breezes and that would fit the research model for the last week of July ... if the high in fact does build up as the GFS depicts (other models don't go that far out yet). Here's one encouraging concept ... 1995, 2003, 2011. Hmm.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Stormy at times in eastern states but with a cooling trend, hot and dry air masses pushing north in the central plains region, thunderstorms with warm fronts into Nebraska and South Dakota, also further north near the boundary between warm Pacific air and cooler arctic air over northern Canada. The higher arctic has been in a warm spell too with readings as high as 18-20 C in some parts of Canada's arctic islands recently. The heat wave is still "on" for later in the week in the central U.S. and it could prove record-breaking on the daily scale (not monthly, 1936 took care of that in most places, such as 49 C in South Dakota ! ... but that was earlier in the month in that year). It's interesting that most hot years in North America are hot in Europe as well, except for 1936 and one or two others. For example, 1911 and 1955 were hot summers in North America, so was 1995 and 2003, 2006. One example of a hot summer in western Europe without big heat waves in North America would be 1976, a rather average summer over here. This applies mostly to central and eastern regions. The western third of North America tends to be out of phase with other regions and has the opposite type of summer in most years.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny with cloudy periods most of the day, light rain has just started this evening. The high was about 20 C. We haven't had much "heat" yet this summer, but at least we shook off the persistent overcast of June, so things are improving a bit. Here, we won't get into the predicted major heat wave further east, it will begin around Wyoming and eastern Montana and cover most points east.

:cool::eek:

Friday, 15 July, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few sunny breaks mainly in eastern counties this morning, showers moving into the west and becoming widely scattered later, with some heavier and possibly thundery showers by afternoon and evening. Winds picking up gradually from SSW 10-20 mph to WSW 20-40 mph. Highs around 17 or 18 C for most but could reach 20 C in southeast.

TONIGHT ... Showers, gusty winds from west at about 15-25 mph, lows around 10 C. By morning, rainfalls in total will average 5-15 mms.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, frequent showers, gusty westerly winds 20-40 mph (force 7-9 over marine regions). Some of the showers could be squally with hail or thunder, but there will be some brighter intervals too. Highs 15 to 17 C. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms on average.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cool with showers or periods of light rain, lows near 8 and highs near 15 or 16 C, winds west to northwest 20-40 mph, rainfalls of about 5-10 mms.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, rain at times becoming briefly heavy in the south, winds not as strong until picking up again late in the day. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C. Winds may back to southwest ahead of a front dropping south.

OUTLOOK ... Several more days of cloudy or partly cloudy weather with northerly winds, but eventually improving to warmer and dry conditions as high pressure builds up to the immediate west. The models have continued to waver on the details, but there still seems to be a good chance of a decent warm spell late in July.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Seasonably warm and dry in Great Lakes and northeast, hot and humid most of central U.S. and west-central Canada with a few heavy storms along a cold front now in Montana and Wyoming. Cool and showery further west to the coast. Hot and dry in TX, OK and s KS on Thursday, and this heat wave is building further north.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, cool with showers all day Thursday, highs only near 16 C. Little change likely today.

Watch for updates on the storm potential later today, either in this thread or elsewhere on the weather forum.

Sunday, 17 July, 2011
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TODAY ... The weather will resemble a late autumn gale with strong northwest winds 30-50 mph (force 8 to 10 over marine areas), and intervals of rain that may be quite heavy at times in Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht and Leinster. Some sunny intervals may develop by afternoon in west Munster but still with strong winds and scattered showers there. Highs only 14-16 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mms.

TONIGHT ... Remaining windy and unsettled for most with winds NW 20-40 mph, showers and lows near 8 C. A further 3-7 mms of rain.

MONDAY ... Windy and cool, NW 25-45 mph, outbreaks of rain, highs 14-16 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, less windy and showers less widespread, average rainfalls 2-5 mms, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, showers, gusty winds at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, somewhat warmer, isolated showers, lows near 7 and highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny (sunshine likely more frequent in south) and somewhat warmer with highs near 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... The following week may have some warmer days still, with the improving trend likely to peak around mid-week. Models continue to "chop and change" on this period and the main question seems to be how strong the high will be once it drifts closer to Ireland. The range of possible outcomes is still something like a brief warmup to a long warm spell.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Very hot and humid in many central and eastern states, spreading into southern Ontario, with a somewhat less extreme heat across the prairies and nearby parts of the northern states. Highs of 42-44 C were recorded in parts of Kansas. It was also hot but less humid from southern California east to Texas. Cloudy and cool with outbreaks of rain in the northwest states and British Columbia.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, periods of rain, highs near 17 C.

Tuesday, 19 July, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but not as windy, with just a few brief and isolated showers, northwest to northerly breezes 10-20 mph, highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may develop across the south towards morning, otherwise, partly cloudy with isolated showers, cool, lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers across the south, variable cloud with isolated showers further north, rainfalls 1-3 mms generally but 3-7 mms possible in south, highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows 6-9 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

FRIDAY ... A rather cool start with lows 5-8 C due to clearing skies, then intervals of cloud and sunshine, slight chance of showers, highs 15 to 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers may return to parts of the north, a bit warmer, lows 7-9 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Some hazy sunshine except for cloud and drizzle near northwest coasts, warmer, highs 17-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very warm next week, will subtropical humidity spoil the warm spell for some, or will it be generally sunny? This depends mainly on the fine tuning, but it looks increasingly likely that temperatures will easily get into the low to mid 20s and possibly as high as 27-29 C in the pattern now showing up with regularity on the various models. There will be the risk of low cloud, fog and drizzle near west and north coasts, but the air mass looks so warm that it could become hot in the east and inland south.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Extreme heat continued on Monday across many of the central and eastern states, and temperatures also crept up a bit higher in central Canada. A strong cold front has now developed in Saskatchewan and Montana, with severe storms breaking out overnight. The western states and provinces were closer to normal but also warming up in many cases. Temperatures hit 42 C again in Kansas, but the most brutal conditions were in Iowa due to the higher humidity making for a "humidex" of about 54 C in some places (38 C with 28 C dew points over the corn fields).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy most of the day but some sunshine by late afternoon, warmer, highs near 22 C.

Thursday, 21 July, 2011
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TODAY ... Showers or periods of light rain will brush parts of eastern Ireland this morning, with variable cloud further west. By afternoon and evening, most places should be seeing a few sunny intervals but it will stay rather cool, highs 14-17 C milder in the west today. Winds light northerly except moderate N-NE in the Dublni region.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chilly especially in central counties where lows could fall to near 5 C, otherwise 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine east and south, cloudy with onshore fog or drizzle west and north, milder or warmer, lows near 10 C and highs near 21 C (18 C west).

OUTLOOK ... Models still promise a warm week ahead with potential for highs in the range of 22-25 C eastern and central counties, 18-22 C western counties, with the main issue being marine cloud and elevated fog drifting some distance inland on some days.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Continued very hot and humid central and eastern states, most of Ontario and Quebec. Severe storms moved through parts of Manitoba and the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A second tropical storm, Cindy, has formed northeast of Bret and both of them look rather weak, but are drifting along to the northeast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few showers in Vancouver on Wednesday, 20 C ... but I flew to Ontario for a 2-day visit and in Toronto the heat was intense, felt like about 36 C for the minute or two I was exposed to the outside at the airport, then in Ottawa it was sunny and 28 C, a bit more tolerable.

Friday, 22 July, 2011
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So far, not much indication of sustained moisture with Cindy's remnants next week, and the track seems likely to "split" that moisture as it approaches Ireland. Meanwhile, I am still looking on the map to find "Dublni" (whoops) the rainfall capital of Ireland yesterday. I am on the last night of a quick trip east to Ottawa, where they set up an outdoor blast furnace to welcome me. If this air mass manages to cross the Atlantic it may cool down to about 25 C but it's starting off pretty close to 40. :eek:

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers mainly in north. Highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mist patches, lows 6-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunshine except for some patchy low cloud, fog or drizzle near outer west and north coasts. Becoming partly cloudy later, highs 16-18 C. Light northwest winds becoming variable.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times in east and inland south. Highs near 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week should get a little warmer each day to about Wednesday or Thursday which look to be the "peak" warming at the moment. Potentially, it could be in the low 20s early in the week and mid 20s later on, at least in the east, central and inland southern counties. West and north will have the marine cloud effects at times holding temperatures closer to 18-21.

The very hazy indications for early August possibly including the end of July weekend would be a return to more seasonable but relatively dry weather.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Blast furnace hot in many parts of central and eastern U.S., Ontario and Quebec. Records fell in many places (for the date, not all time) for example it was 38 C at Toronto airport and it felt about that in downtown Ottawa where I was (luckily not outside for much of the daylight ... just went outside here at 0200 local and it felt very warm, about 25 to 27 C, but there is a strong west wind helping a bit). Back home in Vancouver it was sunny with cloudy periods and about 22 C.

Back to home base for MTC later today.

Sunday, 24 July, 2011
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If you chose this coming week for (part of) your holiday, then you've done better than most.

TODAY ... Extensive cloud to start, breaking to hazy sunshine in various places, quite warm and humid, highs 18-22 C. Although the west coast may have more stubborn low cloud and even some drizzle, it could also break up there as well, almost any place in Ireland could get quite warm today.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy again, some patchy drizzle and mist, lows 12-14 C.

MONDAY ... Warm and humid, with some sunny intervals, more frequent cloud in western counties ... highs 19-23 C.

TUESDAY ... Mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine, light winds, warm away from the outer west or south coasts, lows near 12 C and highs near 24 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm (possibly hot for some in the east) with lows near 12 C and highs 23-27 C (except 18-22 C west).

THURSDAY ... Cloudy to start, perhaps a brief shower, then gradually clearing with a fresh west to northwest breeze. Despite the change in air mass, I suspect it may be quite warm or even hot in the south and east with the land breeze and only a slight cooling of the atmosphere. But the onshore flow will likely mean a more noticeable cooling for the northwest, even so it could be pleasantly warm. So, with that said, lows near 11 C and highs 18-24 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm or hot, lows near 9 C in rural areas to 13 C elsewhere, and highs 23-27 C, as winds return to a west then southwest direction. Once again, this could cool the south and west coasts more than other parts but not extremely.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The warmth or heat could last through Saturday before beginning to break (but now that this warm spell is finally here, perhaps its ending will get delayed in the same fashion as its onset was -- do you think that would be fair?) ... from the models, would suggest Saturday in the range of 24-27 C and Sunday 17-20 C with higher chance of showers than most days in this week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There could be a gradual return to the conditions seen Friday and Saturday, in other words, dry and seasonable in a light northerly flow, as the warm high splits and repositions back to the west. Further warmth is possible in mid-August, I think, because there will only be a limited cooling of the upper levels in this reposition phase.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The extreme heat continued in the eastern states while the weak cold front made progress Saturday towards the lower Great Lakes where it set off some severe storms in a few places, especially in Ohio. Highs reached 40 C (not humidex, actual) for the second day in many of the larger cities. Humidex was about 48-52 C. There is an enormous strain on the electricity networks due to constantly running air conditioning. The extreme heat covers parts of the central and western states too, basically anywhere south of about 42 deg N, then north of that it is quite a bit cooler now with more of an easterly flow out of the Hudson Bay region that generates cloudy skies until it gets well past Minnesota and Manitoba, but the clearing is soon replaced by upslope cloud east of the Rockies (see what a plane flight does for me?) ... the west coast today was perfectly sunny and pleasantly warm. If you can see the Canadian Open golf on TV, it's being held a few miles from my place. (and even if you can't, it is)

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny on Saturday with a high of about 22 C.