Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

ltd440 · 20-09-2019 9:20pm

Infini wrote: »

ltd440 wrote: »

Holy crap, I mean no one should be surprised by the craziness of the Labour Party by now, but starting a split when entering possibly the most important election in 70 years???.
Boris can't believe his luck I'd say

Whos pushing to abolish the deputy position though? Is it Jeremy because it really isnt the time for this carryon.

Corbyn supporters, although may only be a bit of a warning to the deputy to stay on message with Jeremy

briany · 20-09-2019 9:25pm

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The other point about that would be that Scotland would look at this 'special status' for NI and say, hang on, we want that too!

Christmas for the SNP

Scotland have no case to argue for special status and the EU wouldn't grant it to them anyway. Should Brexit happen, it's a simple in-out of the UK choice if Scotland want EU membership.

LeinsterDub · 20-09-2019 9:28pm

ltd440 wrote: »

Corbyn supporters, although may only be a bit of a warning to the deputy to stay on message with Jeremy

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175141143283154944

In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems

ltd440 · 20-09-2019 9:44pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

ltd440 wrote: »

Corbyn supporters, although may only be a bit of a warning to the deputy to stay on message with Jeremy

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175141143283154944

In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems

Wow, it's clear that to the politicians in the UK, brexit comes very far behind party politics.
Irish politicians, who are united on the issue make it all look professional and easy to compromise.
While we actually know ff/fg hate each others guts

Tell me how · 20-09-2019 9:46pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems

Labour showing they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as much as the next.

Jo Swinson happiest with this but it doesn't bode well for removing the Tories.

FrancieBrady · 20-09-2019 9:57pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175141143283154944

In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems

In fairness Watson seemed to be carrying on like he was in another party altogether.

kevthegaff · 20-09-2019 9:58pm

I was talking to a few remained from Leicester a few days ago, they were condemning of the tories and had high regard for Coveney and varadkar. I had to partially disagree with the second statement as it's very easy to defend from the European position compared to the brexiteers position

Strazdas · 20-09-2019 10:01pm

trellheim wrote: »

YET . Got conference still to come on the 29th and then after that the fun really begins. Remember this is NOT about the EU its all UK internal politics.

In other news Labour conference starts tomorrow and exactly as expected the infightings started, why does the left at every turn shoot itself in the foot its the same in Ireland

I think you're being optimistic. The likes of Connelly and Foster are very sceptical that Johnson is looking for a deal.

reslfj · 20-09-2019 10:33pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The EEC morphing into a much closer federal union which prevented individual deals with other countries really pissed off some of the elite in the UK.

"The customs union is a principal component of the European Union, since its establishment in 1958 as the European Economic Community." /wikipedia

The SM was created under Margaret Thatcher and and very much by the EEC commissioner she appointed Arthur Cockfield. It was first in the treaties by January 1993.

The SM requires identical standards, rules and regulations in all member states
primarily for goods. Strict standards and regulations are surely absolutely necessary in any modern economy.

Note the FoM for workers was always in the treaties right from the Treaty of Rome from 1958 (and in some ways FoM was in the coal and steel union)

Lars

GM228 · 20-09-2019 10:39pm

GM228 wrote: »

Headshot wrote: »

Has anyone been keeping up with the court proceedings? Any legal experts saying anything on what side the supreme court with go in favour of?

Personally id be amazed if it goes agains the Government, I suspect the Judges wont want to get involved in politics and just do what the court in London did

Various legal experts are of the opinion the Government will loose, however as Lady Hale (the President of the Supreme Court) stated today, don't make assumptions.

Just to come back to this, as I have previously stated it really could go in either sides favour, though many in the profession seem to believe the Government will loose:-

https://twitter.com/DinahRoseQC/status/1174685669412786176?s=19

https://twitter.com/WomaninHavana/status/1174689759177973761?s=19

David Allen Green, however notes what a Barrister friend has told him who has studied the judges record on previous cases, not a true indicator of any result but interesting reasoning none the less:-

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174766501804617728

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174767450354847744

[url]

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174787872307712000[/url]

Also a decent article by David Allen Green in today's Financial Times about the difficulties of the case:-

https://www.ft.com/content/096bb96c-db8a-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

Financial Times wrote:

The court may or may not be able to plug the gaps in this unprecedented case with its extraordinary facts. But whichever way the judges decide, there will remain a wider worrying gap between a determined executive and ready access to checks and balances. On any view, a complicated Supreme Court case, the outcome of which nobody can predict, should not be all that stands in the way of arbitrary government.

And to finish off, for me the Tweet of the week in relation to the Supreme Court case:-

https://twitter.com/thewritertype/status/1173924042291765248?s=19

Best synopsis.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-09-2019 10:53pm

The Telegraph has the termerity to ask if the EU is serious about a backstop solution!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/09/20/eu-serious-fixing-northern-ireland-backstop-problem/

And again they put the point about the UK not putting in any border infrastructure. I don't have the heart to tackle that lie any more.

Strazdas · 20-09-2019 11:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Telegraph has the termerity to ask if the EU is serious about a backstop solution!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/09/20/eu-serious-fixing-northern-ireland-backstop-problem/

And again they put the point about the UK not putting in any border infrastructure. I don't have the heart to tackle that lie any more.

Their opinion pieces sound as if they were written by Farage or Mark Francois

Rjd2 · 20-09-2019 11:03pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175141143283154944

In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems

I really don't like Watson but this is tribal bollocks and as bad as Johnson trying to sack of Tory remainers. Watson is merely representing a viewpoint which many Labour supporters echo which is very much remain.

Labour should ignore this bollocks, put up a united front and focus on defeating Brexit and winning the next electiom.

Capt'n Midnight · 20-09-2019 11:34pm

Just a reminder the UK hasn't even started the trade deal with the EU.

The WA only gives time to prepare for the real deal.

Meanwhile in the real world 20 years might not be time enough.
Austria blocks EU-Mercosur trade deal with South America

The draft free trade agreement took 20 years to complete and the EU has described it as its biggest so far.

France and Ireland have already warned they will reject the deal if Brazil does not do more to curb fires in the Amazon rainforest

Akrasia · 20-09-2019 11:51pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Labour showing they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as much as the next.

Jo Swinson happiest with this but it doesn't bode well for removing the Tories.

Actually, IMO, if Labour self destruct before the election it means more remain voters will unite behind the last remaining remain party.

But they are some shower all the same

maebee · 21-09-2019 12:09am

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I'd be pretty far from a FG voter, and really don't see myself changing any time soon. However, Coveney will make an excellent Taoiseach when his day comes.

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

Inquitus · 21-09-2019 12:22am

maebee wrote: »

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

Leo compared exceptionally well with Bojo in the joint press conference the other week, one looked like a stateman, the other a clueless moron....

Kermit.de.frog · 21-09-2019 5:44am

maebee wrote: »

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

I listened to his BBC radio 4 interview yesterday. It was really something. So clear, precise and passionate in what he was saying.

He went down really well in the UK as well judging by reaction.

Far and away the most capable person in the Dáil in my opinion. Let's be honest - he is the one driving the Brexit agenda for us.

Really impressed. Rare in an Irish politician.

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1174946187939418114

woohoo!!! · 21-09-2019 6:56am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

maebee wrote: »

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

I listened to his BBC radio 4 interview yesterday. It was really something. So clear, precise and passionate in what he was saying.

He went down really well in the UK as well judging by reaction.

Far and away the most capable person in the Dáil in my opinion. Let's be honest - he is the one driving the Brexit agenda for us.

Really impressed. Rare in an Irish politician.

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1174946187939418114

Indeed. Whilst I'm sure he finds the interviews trying, it's important he counters the spin in the UK and calmly sets out the reality. Himself and McEntee have been solid. Former ambassador Bobby McDonagh has also impressed me, well worth following on Twitter.

Zubeneschamali · 21-09-2019 7:16am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I can just picture the sham performance he gives about how he is incandescent with rage at being forced to do this, bloomin' furious, apoplectic, how he can't wait for an election to put the surrender merchants to the sword etc.

Agreed - there will be no new deal from the EU, so Johnson has to either bring May's deal (or the original NI only backstop version) to a vote or advocate No Deal.

There is no way the deal will pass, and he'll be forced to ask for an extension either way to be followed by an election.

Proposing May's deal (and losing) makes him look like a loser (again) and also fires up the Brexit Party. Proposing No Deal keeps the hardliners on board and makes the election into a sort of referendum - No Deal vs Remain.

An obvious problem is what to do if he wins the election, but he isn't thinking that far ahead.

Enzokk · 21-09-2019 8:26am

Here is Tony Connelly on the timeline of what happened last week,

Brexit: The perils of progress on the backstop

Very much a case of a lot happened but on reflection nothing moved. I am not sure where I saw it, may have been Ian Dunt, but the process repeats itself all the time when it comes to a deal. First there are whispers of a possible deal, that increases until everyone shouts that the deal is there to be made before reality hits and everyone calms down and realizes there wasn't much to begin with. Rinse and repeat?

What was going on?

A careful reading of comments and positions suggests that there has been very little movement and the surge in positivity, which Dublin suspects was encouraged by Downing Street, was perplexing, especially given the late news on Friday.

"What they're putting forward don’t even meet any of the three objectives in the backstop," said one official.

The optimism of Thursday was giving way to pessimism on Friday evening. As so often happens, a British move prompts disproportionate noises of a breakthrough.

This is an interesting tweet on the message sold to the UK voters on what Brexit would be and now that reality is different they are getting mad at the people who told them it would be difficult instead of those who lied to them.

https://twitter.com/curu/status/1175294191397679106?s=20

21-09-2019 8:37am

I missed a fair bit. What was the surge in positivity?

Enzokk · 21-09-2019 8:49am

Deleted User wrote: »

I missed a fair bit. What was the surge in positivity?

Repeated stories and leaks that the EU was willing to look at the backstop and there was movement in the negotiations. As Connelly says it came to an abrupt halt yesterday when reality hit again with the Coveney interview and the UK position papers was revealed and we are actually just back at square one.

Leroy42 · 21-09-2019 8:56am

It's very clear that the UK are running almost a war propaganda campaign in terms of Brexit.

Even the smallest positives are made out to be major and significant progress when in fact nothing has happened.

And the media or letting them away with it time and time again, with a few notable exceptions.

But it is all aimed at conditioning the UK public to see it a certain way. Nothing to do with reality.

MikeSoys · 21-09-2019 9:20am

so does boris actually want to leave without a deal? (he says a no deal is not the desired outcome) but he seems to think the eu will fix the issue for him

Leroy42 · 21-09-2019 9:33am

Johnson wants a deal, but one that is impossible for the EU to agree to.

But Johnson cannot bring WA back, he would probably lose that vote. He can't extend, he has laid out his stall to leave and BP will eat him alive if he extensions.

So whether he wants it or not he really has no option other than No Deal. And the non-papers feed into that. A total non sense and a complete waste of time, but that is exactly what he needs, to waste time. He cannot negotiate his way out of this.

Akrasia · 21-09-2019 9:36am

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is Tony Connelly on the timeline of what happened last week,

Brexit: The perils of progress on the backstop

Very much a case of a lot happened but on reflection nothing moved. I am not sure where I saw it, may have been Ian Dunt, but the process repeats itself all the time when it comes to a deal. First there are whispers of a possible deal, that increases until everyone shouts that the deal is there to be made before reality hits and everyone calms down and realizes there wasn't much to begin with. Rinse and repeat?

This is an interesting tweet on the message sold to the UK voters on what Brexit would be and now that reality is different they are getting mad at the people who told them it would be difficult instead of those who lied to them.

https://twitter.com/curu/status/1175294191397679106?s=20

And who knows if the trade negotiations will be easy or hard, they haven't even started those yet. The uK haven't even gotten a withdrawal agreement yet

Igotadose · 21-09-2019 9:37am

CNN's article summarizes it pretty well. Extension, election, and havoc afterwards as they're saying no party will have enough seats to drive forward on an agenda.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/21/uk/uk-election-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html

Shelga · 21-09-2019 9:48am

Will the EU grant another extension, and how long for?

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

Zubeneschamali · 21-09-2019 10:18am

Shelga wrote: »

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

The EU can keep giving extensions for the next 25 years, an extension doesn't cost much.

We can rename Halloween "Brexitmas" and we all dress up as Rees-Mogg and Boris and go door-to-door making silly demands.

Akrasia · 21-09-2019 10:24am

Shelga wrote: »

Will the EU grant another extension, and how long for?

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

The Current UK law is that Johnson will be required to request an extension on 19th of October if there isn't a deal agreed by then.

The law also says that Johnson is obliged to accept the extension regardless of how long it is for.

If the EU offer a 500 year extension then it would put an end to this nonsense strategy of doing nothing until the last minute and they might start to actually negotiate this like adults.

Shelga · 21-09-2019 10:40am

Akrasia wrote: »

The Current UK law is that Johnson will be required to request an extension on 19th of October if there isn't a deal agreed by then.

The law also says that Johnson is obliged to accept the extension regardless of how long it is for.

If the EU offer a 500 year extension then it would put an end to this nonsense strategy of doing nothing until the last minute and they might start to actually negotiate this like adults.

Oh really? I wasn’t aware of the aspect of it that requires him to accept any extension. Will be interesting to see how the EU decide to use that, seeing as they basically have him cornered.

On and on and on it goes...

Thargor · 21-09-2019 10:45am

When will we get an answer from the supreme court on prorogation?

murphaph · 21-09-2019 10:46am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU can keep giving extensions for the next 25 years, an extension doesn't cost much.

We can rename Halloween "Brexitmas" and we all dress up as Rees-Mogg and Boris and go door-to-door making silly demands.

They do have a cost though. I think any future extensions should be on our terms not the UK's. Future extensions to run parallel to EU budget cycles. Long extensions are ok. These short extensions with ensuing panic as they expire are not.

FrancieBrady · 21-09-2019 10:47am

Thargor wrote: »

When will we get an answer from the supreme court on prorogation?

Early in the new week apparently

Capt'n Midnight · 21-09-2019 11:01am

Shelga wrote: »

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

Meanwhile
UK Govt have continued to paint themselves in to the corner by saying that even if the WA or similar goes ahead they won't extend it past it's original 31 December 2020 date.

So any extension would eat into that too.

It's not just a slow motion train wreck where you can see stuff coming , it's a self inflicted one.

( CBA looking for the link it was at the bottom of a recent BBC News article, the govt doesn't have a majority and too many soundbites and kite flying and uncertainty )

Capt'n Midnight · 21-09-2019 11:09am

More stuff for the eventual enquiry

This suggests that the information free govt ads are less about Brexit preparedness and more about electioneering.

There is practically no information about how to prepare because no one knows what outcome the govt wants, nevermind what it can actually get.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-49774561

The price being paid for Brexit is already eye-watering. The latest wheeze is to spend up to £140m telling us to be prepared.
....
It's very hard not to conclude that a large amount of taxpayer moola is being blown on a pre-election campaign aimed at voters, not businesses, driving home the message that the Boris Johnson administration is determined to get out on 31 October "come what may, do or die". That's a political message.

LeinsterDub · 21-09-2019 12:42pm

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1175369487769620482
Interesting thread here. Can't say I fully understand where they think a deal is going to come from so it appears that breaking the law is their option?

Strazdas · 21-09-2019 12:55pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1175369487769620482
Interesting thread here. Can't say I fully understand where they think a deal is going to come from so it appears that breaking the law is their option?

Definitely an interesting angle : they think Johnson will try and ram through an NI only backstop deal and leave on Oct 31

Capt'n Midnight · 21-09-2019 1:20pm

Meanwhile in Wales UKIP if you can remember them, are trying to pretend they are still relevant despite all evidence to the contrary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49754055

UKIP's party conference has opened in Newport despite its newly-elected leader refusing to attend the event.
...
UKIP has lost 5 out of 7 assembly seats since 2016 to defections

How many "leaders" have UKIP had since Farage took his self publicity machine elsewhere ?

allthedoyles · 21-09-2019 2:18pm

If the UK parliament want an extension , but the UK government don't want an extension , then big decision is on the way by EU 27
The EU say they won't grant an extension if the UK government don't want one.
Anyways I wonder will Leo pass the holy water on to Boris that was given to him by Fr. Gibbons yesterday in Knock.

Podge_irl · 21-09-2019 2:24pm

allthedoyles wrote: »

If the UK parliament want an extension , but the UK government don't want an extension , then big decision is on the way by EU 27
The EU say they won't grant an extension if the UK government don't want one.
Anyways I wonder will Leo pass the holy water on to Boris that was given to him by Fr. Gibbons yesterday in Knock.

Pretty sure the UK govt has to ask for it for the EU to grant it.

There has been some discussion about whether the UK Parliament can designate someone else to give the request. Ultimately however, the means of communicating the request is up to the procedures of the member state. The EU will merely care whether they have received what is in their eyes a formal request or not.

Sam Russell · 21-09-2019 3:59pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

Pretty sure the UK govt has to ask for it for the EU to grant it.

There has been some discussion about whether the UK Parliament can designate someone else to give the request. Ultimately however, the means of communicating the request is up to the procedures of the member state. The EU will merely care whether they have received what is in their eyes a formal request or not.

I think the SC decision could well point to a resolution to this. If it finds against the Gov and gives a stinging argument along the lines of the Scottish Court of Sessions, the BJ should resign.

CelticRambler · 21-09-2019 4:02pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

... BJ should resign.

To which Johnson replies "if you don't like the way I conduct business as Prime Minister, you can always table a motion of no confidence and trigger an election. No? OK, I'll carry on ... "

Irish Praetorian · 21-09-2019 4:02pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Meanwhile in Wales UKIP if you can remember them, are trying to pretend they are still relevant despite all evidence to the contrary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49754055

How many "leaders" have UKIP had since Farage took his self publicity machine elsewhere ?

Ah yes, UKIP - probably led by some Dick Braine at this point.

[Almost feel like I'm taunting the mods with this remark :P]

Sam Russell · 21-09-2019 4:06pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

To which Johnson replies "if you don't like the way I conduct business as Prime Minister, you can always table a motion of no confidence and trigger an election. No? OK, I'll carry on ... "

A vote on NC in BJ would not cause a GE per se, as it would be the person not the Gov.

Even with a VoNC, the HoC still could install another Gov led by the opposition.

devnull · 21-09-2019 4:11pm

The Mail is to start publishing private addresses of those who are involved with legal action at the Supreme Court
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1175379503402627077

Absolutely disgusting especially when it is of people who have already been on the end of death threats. It shows you what a mob mentality is existing in the UK now, nothing can be ruled out.

These people are totally nuts and they are going to fuel extremists the way that they are carrying on. We've saw Laura Kuenssberg also seemingly try and direct and assemble a mob towards a sick childs father recently as well.

They are whipping up hate and conflict and are enjoying it too.

Professor Moriarty · 21-09-2019 4:27pm

devnull wrote: »

The Mail is to start publishing private addresses of those who are involved with legal action at the Supreme Court
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1175379503402627077

Absolutely disgusting especially when it is of people who have already been on the end of death threats. It shows you what a mob mentality is existing in the UK now, nothing can be ruled out.

These people are totally nuts and they are going to fuel extremists the way that they are carrying on. We've saw Laura Kuenssberg also seemingly try and direct and assemble a mob towards a sick childs father recently as well.

They are whipping up hate and conflict and are enjoying it too.

No doubt the government will condemn this in clear and unambiguous language.

An Ciarraioch · 21-09-2019 4:27pm

A somewhat tongue-in-cheek history of European integration and the UK reaction to same over the last 60 years:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1175055625413373955.html

looksee · 21-09-2019 4:58pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A somewhat tongue-in-cheek history of European integration and the UK reaction to same over the last 60 years:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1175055625413373955.html

That's very good!

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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