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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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Sam Russell

Podge_irl wrote: »

Pretty sure the UK govt has to ask for it for the EU to grant it.

There has been some discussion about whether the UK Parliament can designate someone else to give the request. Ultimately however, the means of communicating the request is up to the procedures of the member state. The EU will merely care whether they have received what is in their eyes a formal request or not.

I think the SC decision could well point to a resolution to this. If it finds against the Gov and gives a stinging argument along the lines of the Scottish Court of Sessions, the BJ should resign.

Podge_irl

allthedoyles wrote: »

If the UK parliament want an extension , but the UK government don't want an extension , then big decision is on the way by EU 27
The EU say they won't grant an extension if the UK government don't want one.
Anyways I wonder will Leo pass the holy water on to Boris that was given to him by Fr. Gibbons yesterday in Knock.

Pretty sure the UK govt has to ask for it for the EU to grant it.

There has been some discussion about whether the UK Parliament can designate someone else to give the request. Ultimately however, the means of communicating the request is up to the procedures of the member state. The EU will merely care whether they have received what is in their eyes a formal request or not.

allthedoyles

If the UK parliament want an extension , but the UK government don't want an extension , then big decision is on the way by EU 27
The EU say they won't grant an extension if the UK government don't want one.
Anyways I wonder will Leo pass the holy water on to Boris that was given to him by Fr. Gibbons yesterday in Knock.

Capt'n Midnight

Meanwhile in Wales UKIP if you can remember them, are trying to pretend they are still relevant despite all evidence to the contrary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49754055

UKIP's party conference has opened in Newport despite its newly-elected leader refusing to attend the event.
...
UKIP has lost 5 out of 7 assembly seats since 2016 to defections

How many "leaders" have UKIP had since Farage took his self publicity machine elsewhere ?

Strazdas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1175369487769620482
Interesting thread here. Can't say I fully understand where they think a deal is going to come from so it appears that breaking the law is their option?

Definitely an interesting angle : they think Johnson will try and ram through an NI only backstop deal and leave on Oct 31

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1175369487769620482
Interesting thread here. Can't say I fully understand where they think a deal is going to come from so it appears that breaking the law is their option?

Capt'n Midnight

More stuff for the eventual enquiry

This suggests that the information free govt ads are less about Brexit preparedness and more about electioneering.

There is practically no information about how to prepare because no one knows what outcome the govt wants, nevermind what it can actually get.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-49774561

The price being paid for Brexit is already eye-watering. The latest wheeze is to spend up to £140m telling us to be prepared.
....
It's very hard not to conclude that a large amount of taxpayer moola is being blown on a pre-election campaign aimed at voters, not businesses, driving home the message that the Boris Johnson administration is determined to get out on 31 October "come what may, do or die". That's a political message.

Capt'n Midnight

Shelga wrote: »

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

Meanwhile
UK Govt have continued to paint themselves in to the corner by saying that even if the WA or similar goes ahead they won't extend it past it's original 31 December 2020 date.

So any extension would eat into that too.

It's not just a slow motion train wreck where you can see stuff coming , it's a self inflicted one.

( CBA looking for the link it was at the bottom of a recent BBC News article, the govt doesn't have a majority and too many soundbites and kite flying and uncertainty )

FrancieBrady

Thargor wrote: »

When will we get an answer from the supreme court on prorogation?

Early in the new week apparently

murphaph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU can keep giving extensions for the next 25 years, an extension doesn't cost much.

We can rename Halloween "Brexitmas" and we all dress up as Rees-Mogg and Boris and go door-to-door making silly demands.

They do have a cost though. I think any future extensions should be on our terms not the UK's. Future extensions to run parallel to EU budget cycles. Long extensions are ok. These short extensions with ensuing panic as they expire are not.

Thargor

When will we get an answer from the supreme court on prorogation?

Shelga

Akrasia wrote: »

The Current UK law is that Johnson will be required to request an extension on 19th of October if there isn't a deal agreed by then.

The law also says that Johnson is obliged to accept the extension regardless of how long it is for.

If the EU offer a 500 year extension then it would put an end to this nonsense strategy of doing nothing until the last minute and they might start to actually negotiate this like adults.

Oh really? I wasn’t aware of the aspect of it that requires him to accept any extension. Will be interesting to see how the EU decide to use that, seeing as they basically have him cornered.

On and on and on it goes...

Akrasia

Shelga wrote: »

Will the EU grant another extension, and how long for?

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

The Current UK law is that Johnson will be required to request an extension on 19th of October if there isn't a deal agreed by then.

The law also says that Johnson is obliged to accept the extension regardless of how long it is for.

If the EU offer a 500 year extension then it would put an end to this nonsense strategy of doing nothing until the last minute and they might start to actually negotiate this like adults.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

The EU can keep giving extensions for the next 25 years, an extension doesn't cost much.

We can rename Halloween "Brexitmas" and we all dress up as Rees-Mogg and Boris and go door-to-door making silly demands.

Shelga

Will the EU grant another extension, and how long for?

If they grant one for six months (for example), there’s a general election which results in a hung parliament, what happens then? Unless there is some sort of Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition, are we looking at no deal sometime in the first quarter of next year?

Igotadose

CNN's article summarizes it pretty well. Extension, election, and havoc afterwards as they're saying no party will have enough seats to drive forward on an agenda.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/21/uk/uk-election-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html

Akrasia

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is Tony Connelly on the timeline of what happened last week,

Brexit: The perils of progress on the backstop

Very much a case of a lot happened but on reflection nothing moved. I am not sure where I saw it, may have been Ian Dunt, but the process repeats itself all the time when it comes to a deal. First there are whispers of a possible deal, that increases until everyone shouts that the deal is there to be made before reality hits and everyone calms down and realizes there wasn't much to begin with. Rinse and repeat?

This is an interesting tweet on the message sold to the UK voters on what Brexit would be and now that reality is different they are getting mad at the people who told them it would be difficult instead of those who lied to them.

https://twitter.com/curu/status/1175294191397679106?s=20

And who knows if the trade negotiations will be easy or hard, they haven't even started those yet. The uK haven't even gotten a withdrawal agreement yet

Leroy42

Johnson wants a deal, but one that is impossible for the EU to agree to.

But Johnson cannot bring WA back, he would probably lose that vote. He can't extend, he has laid out his stall to leave and BP will eat him alive if he extensions.

So whether he wants it or not he really has no option other than No Deal. And the non-papers feed into that. A total non sense and a complete waste of time, but that is exactly what he needs, to waste time. He cannot negotiate his way out of this.

MikeSoys

so does boris actually want to leave without a deal? (he says a no deal is not the desired outcome) but he seems to think the eu will fix the issue for him

Leroy42

It's very clear that the UK are running almost a war propaganda campaign in terms of Brexit.

Even the smallest positives are made out to be major and significant progress when in fact nothing has happened.

And the media or letting them away with it time and time again, with a few notable exceptions.

But it is all aimed at conditioning the UK public to see it a certain way. Nothing to do with reality.

Enzokk

Deleted User wrote: »

I missed a fair bit. What was the surge in positivity?

Repeated stories and leaks that the EU was willing to look at the backstop and there was movement in the negotiations. As Connelly says it came to an abrupt halt yesterday when reality hit again with the Coveney interview and the UK position papers was revealed and we are actually just back at square one.

[Deleted User]

I missed a fair bit. What was the surge in positivity?

Enzokk

Here is Tony Connelly on the timeline of what happened last week,

Brexit: The perils of progress on the backstop

Very much a case of a lot happened but on reflection nothing moved. I am not sure where I saw it, may have been Ian Dunt, but the process repeats itself all the time when it comes to a deal. First there are whispers of a possible deal, that increases until everyone shouts that the deal is there to be made before reality hits and everyone calms down and realizes there wasn't much to begin with. Rinse and repeat?

What was going on?

A careful reading of comments and positions suggests that there has been very little movement and the surge in positivity, which Dublin suspects was encouraged by Downing Street, was perplexing, especially given the late news on Friday.

"What they're putting forward don’t even meet any of the three objectives in the backstop," said one official.

The optimism of Thursday was giving way to pessimism on Friday evening. As so often happens, a British move prompts disproportionate noises of a breakthrough.

This is an interesting tweet on the message sold to the UK voters on what Brexit would be and now that reality is different they are getting mad at the people who told them it would be difficult instead of those who lied to them.

https://twitter.com/curu/status/1175294191397679106?s=20

Zubeneschamali

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I can just picture the sham performance he gives about how he is incandescent with rage at being forced to do this, bloomin' furious, apoplectic, how he can't wait for an election to put the surrender merchants to the sword etc.

Agreed - there will be no new deal from the EU, so Johnson has to either bring May's deal (or the original NI only backstop version) to a vote or advocate No Deal.

There is no way the deal will pass, and he'll be forced to ask for an extension either way to be followed by an election.

Proposing May's deal (and losing) makes him look like a loser (again) and also fires up the Brexit Party. Proposing No Deal keeps the hardliners on board and makes the election into a sort of referendum - No Deal vs Remain.

An obvious problem is what to do if he wins the election, but he isn't thinking that far ahead.

woohoo!!!

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

maebee wrote: »

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

I listened to his BBC radio 4 interview yesterday. It was really something. So clear, precise and passionate in what he was saying.

He went down really well in the UK as well judging by reaction.

Far and away the most capable person in the Dáil in my opinion. Let's be honest - he is the one driving the Brexit agenda for us.

Really impressed. Rare in an Irish politician.

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1174946187939418114

Indeed. Whilst I'm sure he finds the interviews trying, it's important he counters the spin in the UK and calmly sets out the reality. Himself and McEntee have been solid. Former ambassador Bobby McDonagh has also impressed me, well worth following on Twitter.

Kermit.de.frog

maebee wrote: »

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

I listened to his BBC radio 4 interview yesterday. It was really something. So clear, precise and passionate in what he was saying.

He went down really well in the UK as well judging by reaction.

Far and away the most capable person in the Dáil in my opinion. Let's be honest - he is the one driving the Brexit agenda for us.

Really impressed. Rare in an Irish politician.

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1174946187939418114

Inquitus

maebee wrote: »

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

Leo compared exceptionally well with Bojo in the joint press conference the other week, one looked like a stateman, the other a clueless moron....

maebee

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I'd be pretty far from a FG voter, and really don't see myself changing any time soon. However, Coveney will make an excellent Taoiseach when his day comes.

I've never voted FG but have to admit that Coveney is playing a blinder. He's clear and concise and comes across so reasonable that he's always ahead of his interviewer. He will definitely be Taoiseach one day.

Akrasia

Tell me how wrote: »

Labour showing they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as much as the next.

Jo Swinson happiest with this but it doesn't bode well for removing the Tories.

Actually, IMO, if Labour self destruct before the election it means more remain voters will unite behind the last remaining remain party.

But they are some shower all the same

Capt'n Midnight

Just a reminder the UK hasn't even started the trade deal with the EU.

The WA only gives time to prepare for the real deal.

Meanwhile in the real world 20 years might not be time enough.
Austria blocks EU-Mercosur trade deal with South America

The draft free trade agreement took 20 years to complete and the EU has described it as its biggest so far.

France and Ireland have already warned they will reject the deal if Brazil does not do more to curb fires in the Amazon rainforest