National: Severe Cold/ Snow Discussion (Thanks to all!)

sillybird · 16-12-2010 1:46am

Deleted User wrote: »

yes but they have the low much further east on news 24 just now which would greatly reduce the snow in the east and south!
No doubt though even their current interpretation is subject to some change in the next 48hrs

I just saw that. It's so unpredictable at the moment for the East! Its makes exciting chart watching?!

leahyl · 16-12-2010 1:47am

alfa beta wrote: »

nice one mick - was just about to do the same myself before I saw your post - I knew he called it a couple of weeks back and I was surprised at his level of certainty even then - but to even conceive of what the charts are now showing back on the 15th of november is seriously impressive.....actually it's a little bit scary. From now on I shall call him Nostradamium!

alfa beta wrote: »

go to bed leahyl - it's much too late for you still to be up - you a girl an all!!

I can't sleep god dammit!! This is too exciting!

thetonynator · 16-12-2010 1:48am

Good night everyone, have decided to sleep in anticipation of late nights of snow watching and waiting to come! All aboard the greenland express! hup! (at least thats what everyone else is calling it! )

sunbabe08 · 16-12-2010 1:48am

leahyl wrote: »

I can't sleep god dammit!! This is too exciting!

not going to happen tonight.

mothel · 16-12-2010 1:49am

Yay, national thread!

leahyl · 16-12-2010 1:49am

I am also def gone this time:D good night fellow weather enthusiasts (ie. Fanatics!)

alfa beta · 16-12-2010 1:50am

leahyl wrote: »

I can't sleep god dammit!! This is too exciting!

jaysus - wait til tomorrow night!!

you're right though - rollercoasters are fun - what were my winters like before boards!!!

TheMilkyPirate · 16-12-2010 1:51am

Deleted User wrote: »

yes but they have the low much further east on news 24 just now which would greatly reduce the snow in the east and south!
No doubt though even their current interpretation is subject to some change in the next 48hrs

What would they be basing this on bb? There own hunch or earlier model runs?

mickger844posts · 16-12-2010 1:53am

Night all, keep a seat on that roller coaster for me in the morning.

sdanseo · 16-12-2010 1:53am

The BBC aren't gospel....now I wasn't born back then but apparently they mad a bit of a boo boo in late 1987.

:P

mothel · 16-12-2010 1:54am

@ Slidey "Poll is flawed, dense populace in Dublin will buck the poll in their favour":
Why do you presume Dublin wanted National rather than regional?? If, as your post infers, we are only interested in Dublin, why then would we vote for national thread?? If we were to follow through your argument, the opposite would ensue!

16-12-2010 1:56am

baraca wrote: »

What would they be basing this on bb? There own hunch or earlier model runs?

A blend and their own opinion.
I've a strong hunch it's not definitive with them ,just as tonights models arent either even though they are getting more and more inside the reliable[usually] time frame.

ME for instance have an awfull habit of doing forecasts at times on just one ecm run and having to change it again when that changes.
Expect a lot of tweaking.
Tonights day after tomorrow is one probability but by no means a done deal

Gregsor · 16-12-2010 1:57am

thetonynator wrote: »

Its salt not grit thats important, we have endless grit supplies but limited salt. (this is for new posters who haven't heard before ) salt melts ire and snow down as far as -6 or -7. That is why it is primarily used instead of grit or sand.

Give me either i don't mind once it stops my car from leaving the road.
It is not the snow that is the problem for me it is the less travelled roads with compounded ice all week where grit would have sufficed.

Keep the salt for the more experienced drivers in built up areas,it would be put to better use there

.

Now new posters who haven't heard before be gone.

miseagustusa · 16-12-2010 1:58am

:mad::(:cool: i'm so confused, all this hyping up then the letting down again

oh i think i'll just go to sleep:o wake me up if it snows:P if not let me keep dreamin:P

sunbabe08 · 16-12-2010 1:59am

sdonn wrote: »

The BBC aren't gospel....now I wasn't born back then but apparently they mad a bit of a boo boo in late 1987.

:P

lol boo boo would be right

JONJO THE MISER · 16-12-2010 1:59am

Really looking forward to tomorrow *Crosses fingers for blizzards to hit Kerry*

16-12-2010 2:02am

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Really looking forward to tomorrow *Crosses fingers for blizzards to hit Kerry*

well the news 24 ukmo forecasthad plenty snow showers for there in their graphics late tomorrow and friday and thats their interpretation and the nae so enjoy :

nn folks!

alfa beta · 16-12-2010 2:04am

Deleted User wrote: »

A blend and their own opinion.
I've a strong hunch it's not definitive with them ,just as tonights models arent either even though they are getting more and more inside the reliable[usually] time frame.

ME for instance have an awfull habit of doing forecasts at times on just one ecm run and having to change it again when that changes.
Expect a lot of tweaking.
Tonights day after tomorrow is one probability but by no means a done deal

i also think that because the uk tends to see a good deal more snow than we do here, the bbc will err on the side of caution in that regard. so while ME will downplay the likelihood of severe snow - for fear that they'll call it wrong and send the country into a panic - the beeb on the other hand are more likely to say 'mega blizzard on the way - watch out' - and then when it's not so bad they can go 'phew, thankfully that one moved a little further west' and everyone will go 'yeah that was lucky but thanks for the heads-up in any case.'

Also, lets face it - at this point in time no-one can predict exactly where that low is gonna sit - and certainly not within a couple of hundred miles accuracy - so it really is a case of wait and see. maybe this time tomorrow we'll all have a better idea.

K-9 · 16-12-2010 2:10am

Well the wind is picking up here now and some light rain after a dead calm today, as MT said. East Donegal.

Harps · 16-12-2010 2:13am

Same here, the winds noticeably picked up and it started raining a while ago. Looking at raintoday the main front is still north of us but this seems to be the start of it

nkay1985 · 16-12-2010 2:13am

Really hoping the worst of the snow in Waterford holds off until Saturday at least. I've all my Christmas nights out Friday night and one night was ruined by the snow last time! If it snows after that, so be it.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2010 2:28am

alfa beta wrote: »

I actually think I am - and I'm not really a big fan of......you know.....man love.....but hey, gotta try everything once!

-1

ciaranm · 16-12-2010 2:35am

How're you feeling MT?
Nervous? I am.

Regardless of the outcome, I've really enjoyed your forecasts. Fair play to you.

K-9 · 16-12-2010 2:35am

BBC24 forecast seems to be mostly rain tonight and tomorrow morning, turning to snow after noon or so.

Norn Iron forecast.

Northern Ireland weather forecast - Met Office

rilz · 16-12-2010 2:37am

Cold front passing Northern Scotland now. Shows Sleet and Snow on its Northern edge.

http://yfrog.com/0zpolarfrontp

HellFireClub · 16-12-2010 2:37am

K-9 wrote: »

BBC24 forecast seems to be mostly rain tonight and tomorrow morning, turning to snow after noon or so.

Norn Iron forecast.

Northern Ireland weather forecast - Met Office

Does this not dramatically increase the liklihood that snow that falls on top of rain will not stick and will just mainly melt???

ciaranm · 16-12-2010 2:44am

HellFireClub wrote: »

Does this not dramatically increase the liklihood that snow that falls on top of rain will not stick and will just mainly melt???

I'm no expert, but surely freezing temps will put pay to that.

HellFireClub · 16-12-2010 2:48am

ciaranm wrote: »

I'm no expert, but surely freezing temps will put pay to that.

Well hopefully but I'm a bit of a traditionalist and for as long as I've been snowfall in Dublin, if the ground was wet, the snow just melted...

Mollymawk · 16-12-2010 2:52am

Wind has swung around more Northerly, picked up to a F3-4. Still 7' on the window thermometer.
That's the North West for you.....I think I can smell Weather!!!:D

K-9 · 16-12-2010 2:55am

HellFireClub wrote: »

Well hopefully but I'm a bit of a traditionalist and for as long as I've been snowfall in Dublin, if the ground was wet, the snow just melted...

Difference is the dramatic drop in temperatures, going on what MY posted yesterday.

BBC giving a wind chill of -8/-10 C. :eek:

Mollymawk · 16-12-2010 3:01am

Yep, I'm just bracing myself for it! Hope the wind doesn't get up TOO high. Honestly, it's changing over the last couple of hours. Maybe I'm getting sucked in here, but to me it just feels like a veering wind that comes in front of squall.
Here goes, I reckon! Another hour or two and we'll know all about it.

rilz · 16-12-2010 4:19am

Check out this site for North Scotland.

http://trafficscotland.org/lev/

And click on Wick camera right at top.

Already artic conditions with snow falling. This is heading Irelands way once this cold front does a runner South.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2010 5:39am

Observations from Thorshavn (Faeroes) showing very strong NNW winds

ekvg 160350z auto 34037g56kt //// r13/m0300vm0300n r31/m0300vp1500u -sn few008/// bkn020/// m03/m07 q1017 refzdz rmk bkn012/// wind 850ft 34036g68kt 310v010=

snow -3 C winds NNW 37G56 knots, while at 850' NNW 36G68 knots

arctic front is about 2h north of Malin Head now, pre-frontal trough already passed. these will both accelerate now to 1200h.

My timing for frontal passage at Dublin to Galway 1230h, Shannon to Wexford about 1500h, Cork 1630h.

Windshift 2h or so before those times but arctic cold after front passes.

Looking at GFS, don't expect it to be the whole story for the forecast, these winds at Thorshavn seem a bit stronger than model would suggest.

Duiske · 16-12-2010 5:46am

rilz wrote: »

Check out this site for North Scotland.

http://trafficscotland.org/lev/

And click on Wick camera right at top.

Already artic conditions with snow falling. This is heading Irelands way once this cold front does a runner South.

Camera 924 - S Drumochter A9

image.aspx?cam=86

Looks pretty windy up there.

rilz · 16-12-2010 5:48am

Check out Saturday into Sunday. Dubliners may be happy!

http://img10.imageshack.us/i/reci.png/ SAT

http://img441.imageshack.us/i/rir1.png/ SUNDAY!

Tristram · 16-12-2010 5:56am

hmmm... I'm supposed to be flying into Dublin airport Saturday night...

Timistry · 16-12-2010 6:04am

Scotland is a white-out! The front is packing a punch anyway. Noe just wait for it to come our way so it can embarress ME:p

rilz · 16-12-2010 6:09am

This is our cold front on doorstep!

http://yfrog.com/g0polar1p

See those showers packing in behind it - All snow!

sdanseo · 16-12-2010 6:16am

Awful far east no?

irish1967 · 16-12-2010 7:12am

Opens one eye

lucy2010 · 16-12-2010 7:14am

irish1967 wrote: »

Opens one eye

quick open both - look at the 0h & tell me what you think... it doesnt appear to have changed from the 18h. we are bang smack under that PL ( IMO):D

16-12-2010 7:17am

Lucy I saw the 0z.
A lot of snow for Bray late friday and all saturday is possible if theres no change.
There will be a change,we don't know if it means less or more though as well ...the change hasnt happened yet.

channaigh · 16-12-2010 7:20am

i can't believe i#m up this early i'm such a geek:D so whats happen are we getting tons of snow or has it been downgraded

lucy2010 · 16-12-2010 7:20am

Deleted User wrote: »

Lucy I saw the 0z.
A lot of snow for Bray late friday and all saturday is possible if theres no change.
There will be a change,we don't know if it means less or more though as well ...the change hasnt happened yet.

i just realised something & im having a flip attack .... do boats go in snow - like the ferries ????

lucy2010 · 16-12-2010 7:22am

channaigh wrote: »

i can't believe i#m up this early i'm such a geek:D so whats happen are we getting tons of snow or has it been downgraded

not a geek - i havent been to bed yet lol no downgrade

:D:D

channaigh · 16-12-2010 7:26am

better stock up so today everyone in work things i/m insane keep telling them this is going to be hugh they don't believe me

16-12-2010 7:26am

channaigh wrote: »

i can't believe i#m up this early i'm such a geek:D so whats happen are we getting tons of snow or has it been downgraded

pretty much steady as she goes...

noah45 · 16-12-2010 7:26am

Extremely windy in Athlone, wellies are ready

lucy2010 · 16-12-2010 7:28am

Deleted User wrote: »

pretty much steady as she goes...

I still have 107 christmas orders to get out so I said feck that - stayed up all night & battled through them..... bit of planning never goes amiss..... BB do you know whats the story with the boats.. significant other stuck in UK till sunday now.... do they sail ?

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2010 7:31am

0z seems abit of a downgrade.

Low is further east definitely but we get a trail back and irish sea invigoration in the east as a result of the easterly flow so not too bad.

And i would say GFS is furthest east, with ECM being the best.

However the models have dropped the idea of an extremely intense low, for the moment.

I would revise down totals in the Dublin region (IMBY!) to falls of around 10cm during Friday night/ Saturday.

National: Severe Cold/ Snow Discussion (Thanks to all!)

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