FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Kunta Kinte · 05-02-2021 12:23pm

mcburns07 wrote: »

2018 only lasted from Weds to Sat down here in Cork, woke up Sunday to a rapid thaw it was the the one letdown of the whole event, a couple of days of blue skies and sub zero temps to enjoy the snow would have been amazing.

In fairness though that happened at the end of Feb/start of March 2018 when there would be very little chance of a prolonged period of sub zero temperatures occurring. Very different story in Jan 1982 or Dec 2010.

Seymour20 · 05-02-2021 12:32pm

Quick question, how come some of the frames on meteociel are blank for some of the runs especially >120 hours ?

Zogabomb · 05-02-2021 1:08pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I remember as a young fella it was the 12.55 weather on a Sunday on RTE Radio 1 (just after mass but before the news at one!) which gave the weather for the week and which I would religiously (it being a Sunday) listen to in winter. I knew nothing of models. I remember after Jan 87 I became obsessed with the idea weather could travel from Russia over to us and give us snow! I started listening every winter after that in the hope it would happen again and I still remember being in my old bedroom in my house on a Sunday lunchtime in early Feb 1991 (30 years ago - jesus!) hearing, I'm guessing Aidan Nulty, announce that there was weather on its way from Siberia later that week! I'm still excited thinking back on it....

Somehow refreshing on Meteociel 4 times a day lacks that romance....

4 times a day? this week I've been refreshing Meteociel 4 times a minute!

nacho libre · 05-02-2021 2:03pm

P 23 Please
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05-02-2021 2:20pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Derp? It would hopefully only be a big win temporarily.

*deep

irishrover99 · 05-02-2021 2:24pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

Big win for the warm Atlantic derp into Europe in FI on the 06Z

Looks fantastic. End this horrid weather

SeaBreezes · 05-02-2021 3:14pm

I imagine this has something to do with firing up the Atlantic..

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nacho libre · 05-02-2021 3:16pm

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Indeed, if something like this verifies, deep warmth might not last too long. We may not tap into deep cold, but i think any spring like weather could well be short lived over the next two to three weeks.

pistolpetes11 · 05-02-2021 3:48pm

Off Topic Posts removed ......... again

Kermit.de.frog · 05-02-2021 4:33pm

A valiant effort made on the latest ICON run to hold back the approach of mild air from the Atlantic - it does break through eventually but i'm guessing that ever more solid looking block over Scandi won't go uncommented on in the next few runs if it develops...

Kermit.de.frog · 05-02-2021 5:07pm

Very disappointing UKMO for snow fans. The cold air is there but the southeasterly wind direction not much good, and not a lot of activity anyhow. GFS same as it's earlier run really (a little slower to break things down though).

Long and short of it is we are looking at light to moderate snow showers in the east and occasionally the south (and maybe far northwest) until Thursday - then a possible snow event for a time - and back to mild.

That's off this evenings runs so far.

TheMilkyPirate · 05-02-2021 5:12pm

Any reason why the UKMO is disappointing for snow fans it looks very similar to previous runs to me?

Kermit.de.frog · 05-02-2021 5:15pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Any reason why the UKMO is disappointing for snow fans it looks very similar to previous runs to me?

Cold air is there but wind direction is poxy southeasterly and heights not low enough. Little precipitation potential for most. Better for the south coast though

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 5:24pm

Better for South Coast and Armagh and Down.

sicknotexi · 05-02-2021 5:44pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Cold air is there but wind direction is poxy southeasterly and heights not low enough. Little precipitation potential for most. Better for the south coast though

The GFS wind directions are from a more ENE direction until Wednesday afternoon, where they turn southeasterly.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-02-2021 5:45pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Better for South Coast and Armagh and Down.

Even so very subdued precipitation wise even in on shore locations. Has to be said it's only one model though a southeasterly like that is not supported anywhere else atm.

Calibos · 05-02-2021 6:00pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Even so very subdued precipitation wise even in on shore locations. Has to be said it's only one model though a southeasterly like that is not supported anywhere else atm.

Its the UKMO though. its not like its ICON Or the GEM.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-02-2021 6:02pm

Calibos wrote: »

Its the UKMO though. its not like its ICON Or the GEM.

It flip flops as much as the rest of them.

ECM is what you are looking for for the best guidance

Humberto Salazar · 05-02-2021 6:06pm

Well, the GFS showing balmy southerlies for next weekend. And no return to cold. Getting my lawnmower serviced soon. Let's see what ECM shows.

Slashermcguirk · 05-02-2021 6:11pm

Yes because there is such huge credibility with models over a week away??? Let’s just enjoy any snow from Sunday evening to Thursday. If we get a few days of good snow then super. We don’t live in Moscow so expecting snow for a week is always going to be a very tall order. The negativity on here beggars belief.

quote="Humberto Salazar;116177629"]Well, the GFS showing balmy southerlies for next weekend. And no return to cold. Getting my lawnmower serviced soon. Let's see what ECM shows.[/quote]

TheMilkyPirate · 05-02-2021 6:12pm

It has to be noted that the Arpege is pretty much south-easterly or straight easterly its entire run as well. It does however bring Tuesdays low quite close to the south coast and possibly giving a nice fall of snow, certainly something to keep an eye on.

Mount Vesuvius · 05-02-2021 6:15pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Well, the GFS showing balmy southerlies for next weekend. And no return to cold. Getting my lawnmower serviced soon. Let's see what ECM shows.

nacho libre · 05-02-2021 6:15pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Well, the GFS showing balmy southerlies for next weekend. And no return to cold. Getting my lawnmower serviced soon. Let's see what ECM shows.

The ECM,as per the GEM, will likely show something similar. I am not convinved though you will be using your lawnmower much over the next 2-3 weeks:)

Gaoth Laidir · 05-02-2021 6:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Cold air is there but wind direction is poxy southeasterly and heights not low enough. Little precipitation potential for most. Better for the south coast though

That's more of an easterly than southeasterly. Winds will point slight left of the isobars (towards the low centre), so more from the east. In any case a surface chart is not the best tool for steering flow.

Arduach · 05-02-2021 7:22pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Yes because there is such huge credibility with models over a week away??? Let’s just enjoy any snow from Sunday evening to Thursday. If we get a few days of good snow then super. We don’t live in Moscow so expecting snow for a week is always going to be a very tall order. The negativity on here beggars belief.

quote="Humberto Salazar;116177629"]Well, the GFS showing balmy southerlies for next weekend. And no return to cold. Getting my lawnmower serviced soon. Let's see what ECM shows.

A sense of entitlement even. Crazy, a westerly island in the Atlantic with the gulf stream hitting us. 3 days is fine. The wind won't blow in exactly the right place for everyone, but it will shift a little so the IOM won't always be at play.

As our mothers might have said in the past, you'll take what your given:)

Even February 1991 only saw the Thursday until Sunday with some snow. We had a 2 day easterly around Valentine's 1994, a 2 day event, some got snow. These events are more common than 2010.

1987 had cold Monday to Friday, a 4 day January event. Even the beast was only 4-5 days but because there was so much snow it lingered for days after, not due to severe cold.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:25pm

Newfoundland is in the middle of the Atlantic and has plenty of frigid days in a typical winter.

I am sure there are more islands (for ex Jan Mayen) that are in the ocean and have cold winters.

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 7:26pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Newfoundland is in the middle of the Atlantic and has plenty of frigid days in a typical winter.

I am sure there are more islands (for ex Jan Mayen) that are in the ocean and have cold winters.

Labrador current.

05-02-2021 7:29pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Newfoundland is in the middle of the Atlantic and has plenty of frigid days in a typical winter.

I am sure there are more islands (for ex Jan Mayen) that are in the ocean and have cold winters.

Have you heard of the north atlantic drift aka the gulf stream?

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:30pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Labrador current.

No.. winds move from west to east.

Reckless Abandonment · 05-02-2021 7:30pm

Low More west on the ECM

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST