Tokyo 2020 Qualifying. Athletes to watch

Dodge · 30-01-2020 10:51pm

Boston can’t be used for qualification times as it’s deemed a downhill marathon

browne_rob5 · 30-01-2020 11:21pm

Dodge wrote: »

Boston can’t be used for qualification times as it’s deemed a downhill marathon

Top 10 in a major qualifies and it's on the list of approved courses so presumably sub 2.11.30 would work also.

https://www.worldathletics.org/responsive/download/downloadresultinfo?filename=26bd97e3-e78e-4b99-8a5c-d640270d8c08.pdf&urlslug=Certified%20marathon%20and%20half%20marathon%20courses%20(4%20Sep%202019)

30-01-2020 11:30pm

browne_rob5 wrote: »

Top 10 in a major qualifies and it's on the list of approved courses so presumably sub 2.11.30 would work also.

https://www.worldathletics.org/responsive/download/downloadresultinfo?filename=26bd97e3-e78e-4b99-8a5c-d640270d8c08.pdf&urlslug=Certified%20marathon%20and%20half%20marathon%20courses%20(4%20Sep%202019)

Top 10 qualify all right, but times don't count: https://www.worldathletics.org/records/certified-roadevents

Elevation drop – Performances achieved on courses with a drop in elevation between the start and the finish which exceeds 1:1000, i.e. 1m per km, are:
not valid for:
- Legal top lists
- Entry standards
- World records

valid for:
- World rankings (where a correction is made to the result score from which points are deducted depending on the drop)

Boston's net downhill is approximately 3.2m/km

browne_rob5 · 30-01-2020 11:41pm

28064212 wrote: »

Top 10 qualify all right, but times don't count: https://www.worldathletics.org/records/certified-roadeventsBoston's net downhill is approximately 3.2m/km

It is strange that he went for Boston as a backup then.

31-01-2020 12:22am

browne_rob5 wrote: »

It is strange that he went for Boston as a backup then.

Possibly he thought he had a realistic shot at top 10. Moot point now anyway

IvoryTower · 05-02-2020 8:16pm

Scullion is doing boston again!

jfh · 05-02-2020 9:31pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Scullion is doing Houston again!

Is he not doing the new York half & Boston marathon?

IvoryTower · 05-02-2020 10:19pm

Sorry meant to say boston, edited there. Yeah he said he wasnt going to do it but it's back on. Says he'll improve better by racing a marathon before Olympics than doing shorter stuff.

23-02-2020 10:47am

Kevin Seaward 2:10:10 in Zurich this morning.

Itziger · 23-02-2020 10:58am

Exactly wrote: »

Kevin Seaward 2:10:10 in Zurich this morning.

Sevilla. It's called the Zurich Maraton de Sevilla (Sponsor)

IvoryTower · 23-02-2020 11:04am

Is it looking like we could have too many qualifiers for marathon at this rate

Dodge · 23-02-2020 11:19am

IvoryTower wrote: »

Is it looking like we could have too many qualifiers for marathon at this rate

Again.

We have 3 now. Any more and there’ll have to be a selection. Hopefully lessons leavened from Rio

browne_rob5 · 23-02-2020 12:48pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Is it looking like we could have too many qualifiers for marathon at this rate

Who else can you see running the standard?

KSU · 23-02-2020 1:31pm

browne_rob5 wrote: »

Who else can you see running the standard?

Probably won’t get another opportunity but Hugh Armstrong just ran today in 2.12 and only fell off the last 2k. Has a very promising career ahead of him with it only being his 2nd marathon

KSU · 23-02-2020 1:33pm

Probably flew under the radar a little bit Michelle Finn ran a new PB 9.38 in Australia yesterday in steeple.

She took the win in a C ranked Sydney classic which will go a long way in the rankings and puts her in a very good place for qualifying for Tokyo

IvoryTower · 23-02-2020 3:20pm

Isn't to tobin going for it? Mick Clohisey?

browne_rob5 · 23-02-2020 3:31pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Isn't to tobin going for it? Mick Clohisey?

Mick a dnf with Achilles injury today and would be amazed if Tobin did it on his debut so won't be either of them I think.

KSU · 23-02-2020 3:32pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Isn't to tobin going for it??

Someone mentioned he was to debut but from what I have seen has been racing over shorter distances in Aus so cant see him racing marathon any time soon.

average_runner · 23-02-2020 5:28pm

Dodge wrote: »

Again.

We have 3 now. Any more and there’ll have to be a selection. Hopefully lessons leavened from Rio

Scullion is an automatic selection due to heuston 5th place?

23-02-2020 5:47pm

average_runner wrote: »

Scullion is an automatic selection due to heuston 5th place?

Automatically eligible, not a guaranteed pick. If more than 3 are eligible, it's up to the country's athletics authority to select the three.

23-02-2020 6:03pm

Athletics Ireland's selection policy for Tokyo:

4.5 The Nomination Panel has “sole discretion” to nominate to the Olympic Federation of Ireland the team members that meet with the eligibility and entry rules of the 2020 Olympic Games and as stipulated in this Nomination Policy. This includes nominations for relay teams, individuals and for instances when there are more than 3 athletes who have met the performance standard.
4.5.1 The Nomination Panel may use their sole and overriding discretion to consider any factor or combination of factors that, in their opinion, are relevant to the nomination of an athlete, including, but not necessarily limited to the following general principles:
A. Consistency and Repeatability of performances (in all or any events) during the qualification period, achieving the performance standard and showing current form and fitness
B. Statistical data (ranking/performance list, performance-time curves, course ratings, altitude/wind adjustments)
C. Championship performance history, in particular the history of the athlete’s on-demand performances at major championships
D. The competitive head to head record of each athlete
E. Injury and illness history
4.6 Where there are more athletes that have achieved the nomination criteria in this policy beyond the maximum entry limit in any one event, the Nomination Panel will have sole discretion to decide which of the athlete(s) is to be nominated.

They've given themselves a pretty free hand if there is a choice to be made. Which is a good thing

Ceepo · 23-02-2020 6:04pm

28064212 wrote: »

Automatically eligible, not a guaranteed pick. If more than 3 are eligible, it's up to the country's athletics authority to select the three.

And if someone else runs a QT it might put him down the pecking order simply because he wouldn't have a top 3 time..

Not sure about the selection policy it that happens.

Tobin is heading to Hamburg.

average_runner · 23-02-2020 8:36pm

Ceepo wrote: »

And if someone else runs a QT it might put him down the pecking order simply because he wouldn't have a top 3 time..

Not sure about the selection policy it that happens.

Tobin is heading to Hamburg.

I think scullion will go as he is the national champ also.

If anyone else beats pollocks time it will be interesting.

There is also the euro's this summer?

Down South · 23-02-2020 9:07pm

Is it also possible that World Athletics could give priority to time qualifications over place qualifications since it looks like more than 80 are going to meet qual time?

Chivito550 · 23-02-2020 9:12pm

Delighted for the 3 lads regarding Olympic qualification, but as far as the actual times are concerned, I can't buy into the excitement. The Vaporflys have destroyed marathon running in my opinion.

IvoryTower · 23-02-2020 9:15pm

Would a top 10 in Boston be worth more for Scullion than getting the time? Seems even more odd choice now that a few people might hit the time and not him, even though you would be pretty sure he's more than capable, why not just go get the time...

average_runner · 23-02-2020 10:22pm

Down South wrote: »

Is it also possible that World Athletics could give priority to time qualifications over place qualifications since it looks like more than 80 are going to meet qual time?

I think the opposite actually.

23-02-2020 10:25pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Would a top 10 in Boston be worth more for Scullion than getting the time? Seems even more odd choice now that a few people might hit the time and not him, even though you would be pretty sure he's more than capable, why not just go get the time...

He's not doing Boston though, is he?

IvoryTower · 23-02-2020 10:28pm

28064212 wrote: »

He's not doing Boston though, is he?

Yep I believe so, I listen to the podcast dont think I missed any changes to plan

average_runner · 23-02-2020 10:38pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Yep I believe so, I listen to the podcast dont think I missed any changes to plan

Yeah he is doing it. A half marathon next weekend also?

23-02-2020 10:41pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Yep I believe so, I listen to the podcast dont think I missed any changes to plan

Huh, interesting. Well, from the selection policy, a good performance at Boston would bump him up in these criteria:

A. Consistency and Repeatability of performances (in all or any events) during the qualification period, achieving the performance standard and showing current form and fitness
B. Statistical data (ranking/performance list, performance-time curves, course ratings, altitude/wind adjustments)
C. Championship performance history, in particular the history of the athlete’s on-demand performances at major championships

Arguably more so than, say, a 2:10:59 in a less-prestigious marathon

IvoryTower · 23-02-2020 11:00pm

Yes you would think so, but having both would have seemed like the best option to me!

average_runner · 23-02-2020 11:09pm

28064212 wrote: »

Huh, interesting. Well, from the selection policy, a good performance at Boston would bump him up in these criteria:Arguably more so than, say, a 2:10:59 in a less-prestigious marathon

Even now he hits all 3, a great dublin and heuston runs, times improving each time.

And the way he tackles the marathon, ie starts slow and finishes strong, he will suit the Olympics if a tough race

OOnegative · 23-02-2020 11:25pm

average_runner wrote: »

Even now he hits all 3, a great dublin and heuston runs, times improving each time.

And the way he tackles the marathon, ie starts slow and finishes strong, he will suit the Olympics if a tough race

Dublin, Houston, Boston then Tokyo he hopes in 12 months, the man is supremely talented but fook me that’s just to much you have to think? Four marathons at 100% in that time frame has to come back and bite you.

ThebitterLemon · 23-02-2020 11:36pm

OOnegative wrote: »

Dublin, Houston, Boston then Tokyo he hopes in 12 months, the man is supremely talented but fook me that’s just to much you have to think? Four marathons at 100% in that time frame has to come back and bite you.

Tell me about it

TbL

Enduro · 24-02-2020 12:04am

OOnegative wrote: »

Dublin, Houston, Boston then Tokyo he hopes in 12 months, the man is supremely talented but fook me that’s just to much you have to think? Four marathons at 100% in that time frame has to come back and bite you.

Err... no. Why would it. Any evidence to back up? References to good science? anything?

Dodge · 24-02-2020 12:21am

FWIW Scullion is the only athlete qualified who hasn’t done the time

Not the only Irish athlete, he’s the only male marathon runner in the world to do it. Everyone else who’s finished top 5/10 in a world marathon to qualify has the time

They’re already way over the allocated 80 places too

average_runner · 24-02-2020 8:46am

Dodge wrote: »

FWIW Scullion is the only athlete qualified who hasn’t done the time

Not the only Irish athlete, he’s the only male marathon runner in the world to do it. Everyone else who’s finished top 5/10 in a world marathon to qualify has the time

They’re already way over the allocated 80 places too

True but Scullion hasn't ran on a fast course, but instead on a racing course.

OOnegative · 24-02-2020 8:54am

Enduro wrote: »

Err... no. Why would it. Any evidence to back up? References to good science? anything?

Tell us why it isn’t? No I’ve none of the things you asked to back my statement up, it’s just my humble opinion that 4 marathons at full tilt in 12 months is a bit much even if you’re a talented elite runner like Scullion.

Dodge · 24-02-2020 9:01am

average_runner wrote: »

True but Scullion hasn't ran on a fast course, but instead on a racing course.

Oh I’m not arguing against Scullion! Just find his situation interesting. The Nike revolution has skewed the whole marathon qualification. The IAAF expected far more to qualify through the placings/rankings

average_runner · 24-02-2020 9:20am

Dodge wrote: »

Oh I’m not arguing against Scullion! Just find his situation interesting. The Nike revolution has skewed the whole marathon qualification. The IAAF expected far more to qualify through the placings/rankings

Yeah the nike runners has changed it all.

jfh · 24-02-2020 9:32am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Kevin Seaward 2:10:10 in Zurich this morning.

Is seaward still teaching? Where does he train?
Amazing time if he is, can't help but wonder if he was a full time athlete in altitude what time he'd do

Ceepo · 24-02-2020 10:35am

Enduro wrote: »

Err... no. Why would it. Any evidence to back up? References to good science? anything?

Interesting..would you think that it's an ideal racing strategy.

Not sure that there is any "evidence" or "good science" to say either way. But the vast vast majority of elite marathon runners would only do 2 or 3 marathon over 12 months. Of course this doesn't say it's the "correct way"
Scullion will have 5 marathon in 12 months if we take Doha into account. Do you feel this is a good approach, if so, why.? It would be great to get your perspective.

For the sake of discussion. If you were to coach an athlete for a championship marathon race, what would you have them do in terms of races in the previous 12 months.

IvoryTower · 24-02-2020 10:52am

He mentions quite a lot on his podcast how he recovery very quickly from Marathons, its one of his talents or some ****e like that

KSU · 24-02-2020 2:49pm

OOnegative wrote: »

Dublin, Houston, Boston then Tokyo he hopes in 12 months, the man is supremely talented but fook me that’s just to much you have to think? Four marathons at 100% in that time frame has to come back and bite you.

Don’t forget Doha as well

KSU · 24-02-2020 2:52pm

average_runner wrote: »

True but Scullion hasn't ran on a fast course, but instead on a racing course.

Houston is a lightning fast course

KSU · 24-02-2020 3:03pm

Enduro wrote: »

Err... no. Why would it. Any evidence to back up? References to good science? anything?

Plenty would argue the merits of the science around periodisation and in short time frame there could be compromised (or indeed absence of) preparatory phases which could increase risks (depending on the person and their background)

Bompa and Haff’s work around this are interesting read.

I do think these Nike shoes prob impact how we perceive marathon recovery though so imagine there will be shifts in the norm in near future

Damo 2k9 · 24-02-2020 3:29pm

KSU wrote: »

Houston is a lightning fast course

The wind in houston this year was apparently really bad, which probably takes the fast aspect of it out.

average_runner · 24-02-2020 3:41pm

KSU wrote: »

Houston is a lightning fast course

Not with a gale force wind against you

KSU · 24-02-2020 4:11pm

average_runner wrote: »

Not with a gale force wind against you

Wind definitely would have had a bearing but also worth nothing the half times on same day were my top exactly slow 9 men sub 60 as well as J Robertson Finishing in relative range of his PB.

Definitely would have slowed some miles no doubt but how much of a bearing that had remains to be seen

Tokyo 2020 Qualifying. Athletes to watch

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