[M.T. Cranium]

Daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum
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Here's a new idea that is an expansion of what tends to happen on the forum whenever there is interesting weather ahead, a forecast forum where all can pitch in. My suggestion to get it started is as follows. Since I live eight time zones away and I am "up all night" in terms of your time zone, it is relatively easy for me to post a forecast at something like 0400 or before most people are up and about. Then other experienced weather followers on Boards.ie can update the forecasts they find as needed. It will be relatively informal, with perhaps more details than you'd expect from other sources, and you never know, perhaps glimpses of accuracy on rare occasions.

I hope three or four other of the usual suspects would like to collaborate and get into this. As it grows into a regular feature, it could attract more general forum users to drift into the weather forum and perhaps we'll encourage more people to join in.

So here goes the very first effort -- massive blizzard, oh sorry, that's left over from 2-3 February.

Forecast for Ireland, Monday 1st June, 2009

TODAY will continue to be warm and sunny in many parts of Ireland. The exceptions will be narrow coastal zones in the east and south where the steady E to SE breeze brings in colder marine air and perhaps some low cloud or fog. Also, there are some morning fog patches further inland that will quickly burn off in the warm sunshine. So by mid-day, look for mostly sunny skies in almost all parts of Ireland, just a few fog patches hugging the south or southeast coasts in places, and offshore from the west coast near some islands. For most people on land, highs will reach 22 to 26 C in bright sunshine, trending down to about 18 C a few kms inland from the south and east coasts, and 15 C right near the water in those areas.

In this regime, Dublin tends to straddle all three zones, so it will depend how far inland you are and how high up above sea level to escape the sea breeze cooling. The city centre should get some periods of fog early and some warm sunshine later and highs near 19 or 20 C. Further inland it could be 23 C.

TONIGHT will continue mostly clear and rather warm until well after midnight, so pleasant for evening activities, quite chilly for a brief period 0300-0600 around sunrise, when lows in some rural districts could fall to 5-7 C, closer to 10 C in the larger towns and cities, but then all inland parts of Ireland will be warming quickly in the early morning sunshine. Some shallow but in places dense fog will once again form in a few coastal and even inland locations, expect sudden changes in visibility on the roads in a few parts.

TUESDAY is looking fairly similar to TODAY, if perhaps the sea breezes make more of a run inland on a stronger gradient wind, chilling some places 5-10 kms inland a few degrees lower than today's highs. Otherwise, most people should notice little if any change from today. There is a very slight risk of one isolated thundershower forming well inland, very few would see this however.

WEDNESDAY is also looking fabulous for many as the warm ridge drifts further west and keeps Ireland under its influence while edging away from the UK. Their loss may be (our) gain as some of the warmest air available moves over Ireland, so it could even be a touch warmer than today for some. There may be a slightly greater risk of one or two isolated thundershowers at mid-afternoon. The fog and sea breezes will still be local issues near the south coast in particular.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will bring a cooling trend with partly cloudy weather, more chill to the breeze from the northeast and highs closer to 18-20 C for most, with overnight readings close to 7 C. Showers may break out for a few places, and by Saturday some will have recorded a few millimetres, although other districts could remain dry to the weekend.

THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK is generally for unsettled weather and some chance of a steadier rain before a more mobile westerly pattern develops.

Feel free to update or present alternative concepts ... and caveat emptor, I am but a humble scribe.

[M.T. Cranium]

C'mon lads, help me out ...

So far, the pattern described in yesterday's forecast has not shifted very much if at all through the forecast period. So here's the Tuesday update ...

Tuesday, 2 June, 2009 _ 0545h
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TODAY will be another fabulous warm and sunny day almost everywhere in Ireland. Like yesterday, it will be a touch cooler close to the east and south coasts, and quite a bit cooler right at the waterfront and out over the nearby waters (which are about 12-14 C about now). This will result in highs generally reaching 23 to 26 C in most parts today, with the same gradual reduction to near 15 C at the seafront. In those cooler locations, some fog may form although right now, it seems rather sparse compared to yesterday.

TONIGHT will be clear and warm until well past midnight, then bottoming out only near 9 or 10 C at the lowest, but more like 14 C in some larger towns and near the west coast. Expect some more fog patches to develop after about 0200h.

WEDNESDAY could even be a degree or two warmer as the heart of the ridge drifts back westward from around the southern UK, so it will be bringing even warmer air heated over southern England along for the ride. Highs could be 24 to 28 C in much of the country, and even near the east and south coasts it may be near 20 C as sea breezes will be quite weak. There is always the very slight risk of a shower near the centre of Ireland as regional breezes converge.

THURSDAY now looks just about as warm, as the cooling influence about to descend on the UK will be held back behind a front that only reaches parts of Ulster late in the day from the east. That front could have some showers with it, but otherwise, expect another warm sunny day, lows near 11 C and highs near 24 C.

FRIDAY is looking quite a bit cooler in strong NE'ly breezes that bring lines of swelling cumulus clouds that turn into brief showers at times. Sunshine may be quite limited except if you are lucky enough to find yourself between two of these many features. Lows of about 7 C will be followed by highs of about 17 C.

SATURDAY will also be showery and cooler with mostly cloudy conditions and higher humidity, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY from this distance looks rather variable and might turn out not too badly for some as the cloud and showers will tend to break up slowly during the day. Lows of about 4-6 C will be followed by highs near 16 C.

NEXT WEEK looks wet for a time, then it should try to return to this hot dry pattern but the next warm spell could have a more dramatic thundery breakdown.

[force eleven]

Nice summary there MT. The cooling trend certainly seems to be dissapating somewhat to what the models were predicting late last week - i.e temps down to mid teens by Wedsneday widely. Clearly that won't happen,although the cooler weather is on its way for Thursday - high teens to 20 ain't bad in my book. Hopefully a reload on its way for next week,but too early to have any confidence yet....

28C reached today in the west - according to Met Eireann - could be the peak of this particular spell...

[paulhac]

havnt been on here for a long time but great summary MT. I like the chance of a reaload even more a thundery breakdown but judging from some charts it could be a couple of weeks before the real heat builds back in

[M.T. Cranium]

Forecasts for Wednesday, June 3, 2009 _ 0530h
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TODAY could bring the warmest readings yet in this long warm spell, especially in the western two thirds of Ireland. With mostly sunny skies again, expect highs of 25 to 29 C. Could it hit 30 C in one spot? Perhaps. Also, could there be a brief but intense thunderstorm? Yes, and the most likely area for these would be around Birr to Kilkenny. There is a very weak front drifting west, marked mostly by higher cloud, and this may trigger the storms around mid-day. East coast locations today could have a stronger and more noticeable sea breeze, so highs around Dublin may vary considerably from 16 C at the seafront to 24 C in places like Casement. We'll keep an eye on the radar and issue any updates to the storm potential.

TONIGHT will be more cloudy than previous nights but still with some clear periods, and it could be quite warm and close (I would say humid here). The really cool air won't arrive in Ireland until after sunrise, so lows could be as mild as 12-15 C in some places. If there are any thunderstorms earlier, they could leave a potential for dense fog in valleys.

THURSDAY will see subtle but eventually noticeable cooling trends in stages as the warmer air is forced to retreat to the southwest quarter of Ireland and then off to sea by nightfall. Highs in the southwest might reach 24-27 C again with a risk of a thundershower. From Donegal southeast to about Wexford there will be an intermediate zone with partly cloudy skies and highs of about 21-22 C. In Ulster and (if I am allowed to say this) NI, there may be lower cloud and drizzle in places with highs of 14-17 C. Dublin is likely to be cloudy with sunny periods and around 19 C.

FRIDAY will bring quite a shock to the system (but not as bad as Scotland is going to get) as chilly air and strong NE breezes arrive. This will lead to widespread low cloud, some brief showers or prolonged periods of mist and drizzle, and a few sunnier locations mostly downwind from hills and mountains. After morning lows of 6-10 C the afternoon readings will be in the range of 12-16 C with the higher readings in Kerry and the Limerick area. Winds will increase to NE 25-40 knots over water and 20-30 mph over all but most exposed locations on land.

SATURDAY is somewhat uncertain due to the chance of a strong low forming near Brittany and throwing some steady rain into the south. If that happens together with brisk east winds, it will be a pretty nasty day in the southern third of the country, and not a lot better further north although probably only light, spotty rain or drizzle there. Temperatures will stay steady in the range of about 8 to 13 C and rainfalls could be 10-30 mms in the south, 2-5 mms further north. Winds will be ENE 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY will bring partly cloudy to overcast skies, about 3-5 hours of sunshine in total for some parts, and a few light showers here and there. Winds will not be as strong (from current indications) and the temperature range will be typically lows of 7 to highs of 15 C.

NEXT WEEK ... I will leave that for later or for somebody who wants to tackle the subject. I have not seen the new guidance for it yet.

[darc]

So the latest forecast is scorching hot for today and a near possiblity of snow for the weekend! - Ahh, the Irish Weather!!

Thanks for the updates - will put bbq & garden furniture back in covers til next year.

[force eleven]

Thanks MT - nice summary again,particularly on the coming breakdown of this settled spell. I think you may hve overcooked todays temps by 2 or 3 degrees. Its about 2 C cooler here in the midlands than it was yesterday at this time - still very nice though, and a slight NE breeze now, which wasnt there yesterday. My guess is a top temp of 25- 26 further south of here. Not that we're complaining!

Next week looks a bit unsettled, and temperatures around or slightly below normal - but early June often brings cool unsettled weather in the best summers so I'm hopeful we will get more decent weather over the next few weeks...

[M.T. Cranium]

UPDATE _ 3:45 pm
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Radar shows development of some showers that may become thundery over the Mountains of Kerry near Glencar. This may signify later development over some other higher parts of the southwest. As this observer will be away from the internet shortly, any other experienced radar watcher might want to update further as needed.

Also, much cooler air has begun to creep into coastal sections of the northwest and far west and this may lead to dense fog forming overnight in some of these areas, because the stronger push of deep-level cooler air is still some distance back to the northeast across the UK. This implies that the sea breeze incursions in the west would bring in additional moisture that will quickly saturate the air mass present after solar heating ends this evening.

[obrienmichael]

Looking at the monthly outlook on the bbc website they say that it is to warm up from the 15th to the 28th June after this breakdown with the Azoures high building and moving up over the uk with some very warm days expected and some thundery outbreaks expected in the southeast of the uk. We usually get the same as the uk so i guess it's looking good.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 4 June, 2009
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TODAY will be partly cloudy and still reasonably warm in many parts of Ireland, with more extensive cloud in the southeast where one or two showers could develop later. Highs will be 19 to 22 C for most, but a little cooler along the east coast and in some far northern parts of Donegal where 16 C might be the top reading.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with some clear breaks, and one or two brief showers for some parts, with lows generally 6 to 8 C but locally as low as 4 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, these mostly in the Midlands and southwest, but there could be some lower cloud in places near the east coast and drizzle or light rain at times. It will be rather chilly with a raw northeast breeze as highs reach 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will continue about the same only with more extensive areas of drizzle or light rain developing, and some locally heavier rain in the south. Amounts now appear likely to be 8-12 mms across some of the south and 2-4 mms across much of the northern half of the country. Lows will be around 6 to 9 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will see steady rain and northerly winds across the Irish Sea and parts of the southern UK, and this could back up into the Dublin area at times as well as affecting Wicklow and the southeast, but further west it may try to clear for a time, with unstable cumulus developing into locally heavy showers, bright intervals and passing showers for most, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

NEXT WEEK looks wet to start with waves of moisture heading for Ireland from the southwest. Eventually these fronts start to produce a more northerly storm track that allows very warm and humid air to flow into the south and east, possibly generating some heavier thunderstorms at times. Highs next week are likely to start out near 15 C and head up into the lower 20s eventually. The time scale makes this far less than certain but around ten days from now it could be a case of tropical warmth heading north from France into the UK and setting up some possibly heavy storms for Ireland which would be under a frontal boundary between this hot air and much cooler air over the near Atlantic. Something to watch anyway.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 5 June, 2009
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TODAY will become more cloudy than sunny by afternoon, and then some light rain may develop in a chilly NE wind (15-30 mph). Highs will generally be around 15 or 16 C, but could reach 18 C in a few parts of the southwest.

TONIGHT will be chilly and damp with periods of rain or drizzle, the raw NE breeze continuing, and lows around 7 or 8 C.

SATURDAY may bring periods of heavier rain especially to the south and east with winds increasing at times to NNE 20-35 mph. With highs of about 12-14 C it may feel much colder than this past week has been. Some far western locations could see the odd glimpse of sun between passing showers, but it will be "umbrella weather" on any golf courses more likely than not.

SATURDAY NIGHT is likely to be quite nasty as the rain gets heavier in places and reaches totals of 30-40 mms. Lows will be around 7-9 C. Winds will continue to back around slowly from NE to NNW over most of the country.

SUNDAY will bring slight improvement although there is a risk that the steady rain will persist in Dublin and Wicklow regions. The further west or north you go on Sunday, the longer the dry intervals and occasional sunny breaks might become, although it won't necessarily be dry anywhere all day. Winds will become more NW'ly as the disturbance moves slowly away to the east, and highs will likely reach about 16 C although some places might be held to 13 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY is looking like a generally unsettled period with waves of moisture moving through Ireland fairly frequently, separated by drier and windy spells in a brisk SW'ly flow of Atlantic origins. Temperatures will be slowly moving up but only towards 18-19 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK could be quite warm and thundery at times the way the models are developing a very warm pattern over France and England; in fact there are some indications that the very warm air will push into at least the southeast quadrant of Ireland at times. It should be an interesting period of potentially stormy weather if it continues to develop as indicated.

Have a fabulous weekend despite any rain you may encounter, lots to do out of the rain I would have to imagine.

[M.T. Cranium]

UPDATE _ 5 June 1815h
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There is no large change in the situation or forecast but I am adding an (unofficial, personal basis only) heavy rainfall alert for parts of eastern and southern Ireland over the next 48 hours. Some places could get 40 to 60 mms of rain with strong NE winds at times and very chilly temperatures. Be prepared if you're planning any extended time outside, it will be quite unpleasant and a shock to the system after a week of really warm and dry conditions. I see from the latest observations that the first signs of this change are already evident in Dublin in the form of cool temperatures and stronger NE winds. The rain will follow later.

[paulhac]

thanks MT. yes its gone quite cold here in dublin now stiff cold wind. what are the chances of tstorms out of this
cheers!!

[M.T. Cranium]

Will take a look at that possibility at forecast time (say around 0500) but first impression is, cold air rather stable and most of the precip is falling from relatively low-topped clouds so unlikely to be much thunder ... no thunder reports from the UK so far where tomorrow's Irish weather is now developing, but there is snow above 1,500 feet in the Peak District, I hear.

[nacho libre]

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Will take a look at that possibility at forecast time (say around 0500) but first impression is, cold air rather stable and most of the precip is falling from relatively low-topped clouds so unlikely to be much thunder ... no thunder reports from the UK so far where tomorrow's Irish weather is now developing, but there is snow above 1,500 feet in the Peak District, I hear.

yes. can you imagine the fun we would have if this was winter time.