Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

ninebeanrows · 05-02-2019 7:21pm #1

ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

One to watch.

ECU1-72.GIF?05-0

ninebeanrows · 05-02-2019 7:23pm

850hPa winds - treat this a measure of the possible peak wind gust speed in a sting jet scenario.

Showing 75kts locally.

ECU4-72.GIF?05-0

Mount Vesuvius · 05-02-2019 7:34pm

Yep one to watch, latest UKMO fax.

Mount Vesuvius · 05-02-2019 7:50pm

12z ICON currently showing 100kph plus gusts moving up over the country through Friday Afternoon. Subject to Upgrades and downgrades however.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2019 8:06pm

Got there before me Sleety_ rain, shut down the other thread .

A potential storm on Fri looks more likely on the latest runs, the track now more over Ireland and deepening as it approaches the coast on the latest ECM 12Z and showing some very tight isobars overland. A bit to go and changes could occur but certainly worth keeping a close eye on. This was originally tracking further North and was not being shown as strong , it has upped wind speeds over the last couple of runs.

Currently showing damaging wind speeds over land during Friday. Could go up or down so will need to keep an eye on forecasts.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2019 8:13pm

Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change .

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2019 8:21pm

UKMO 12Z

boocat · 05-02-2019 8:26pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change

Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
At least the weather is looking interesting
(Hopefully not that interesting)

Monkeynut · 05-02-2019 8:33pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

UKMO 12Z

The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

munsterlegend · 05-02-2019 8:43pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

Looks a lot further north alright which is usually how these storms go as in drifting north.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2019 8:44pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

JJJJNR · 05-02-2019 8:51pm

Could this pull in cold air like last year.

munsterlegend · 05-02-2019 8:54pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?

Monkeynut · 05-02-2019 8:56pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Could this pull in cold air like last year.

I haven't a clue to be saying yes or no.

But if you mean storm Emma, I would say we had very cold air from an easterly over us, then i think Emma came from the South/SouthWest into that very cold air we had already upon us, that's how people got so much snow.

I think its too warm now for that, with this storm, so we will just have wind, I don't know about rain!!!

munsterlegend wrote: »

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?

I was thinking the same, but the ECM was showing wind speeds too. So it makes it look more countrywide. I guess.... well it did to me, not knowing much.

What is the UKMO on wind speeds?

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2019 9:38pm

At the moment the UKMO showing the strongest winds more S than the ECM, don't have wind speeds for Ireland but below is wind gusts for the UK so probably a bit higher for the Southern half of Ireland going by these charts and higher again on windward coasts.

21.00 Fri Gusts mph

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2019 9:59pm

Will keep an eye on these over the coming runs.

ARPEGE less strong ( being catching up to the ECM over the last couple of runs ) . ICON similar to the ECM if a tad higher but usually can knock off 5-10 kph approx as inclined to overestimate this far out , GFS less strong and showing the strongest winds off the S coast .

Oscar Bravo · 05-02-2019 10:29pm

Siobhan Ryan on the 9.30 forecast . Risk of stormy weather Friday.

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2019 12:16am

GFS 18Z more inline with the ECM now in both track and wind speed. ICON 18Z tracking further S keeping the bulk of the strongest winds for the most part offshore

nacho libre · 06-02-2019 12:29am

Well, hopefully the ECM and GFS are right about the track. Although I would not be surprised if it ends up further north on future runs.

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2019 12:38am

Met Eireann's own charts very similar to the ECM and GFS.

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2019 12:58am

Potential for some very heavy rain also .

Oscar Bravo · 06-02-2019 12:58am

Late night radio 1 forecast, heavy rain tomorrow evening/night, showery Thursday and the risk of stormy conditions Friday. Very unsettled.

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2019 1:05am

High tides early Fri morning, just a couple of days after Spring tides.

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2019 1:13am

Can compare tonights WRF 18Z run with tomorrows.

A lot of rain to fall between here and Fri

M.T. Cranium · 06-02-2019 6:14am

Met.ie guidance maps look like an orange alert situation for Galway Bay and much of Connacht. Stronger gradient than on most models at 00z except (oddly) the GEM. It also looks intense. I guess it's some kind of GEM-harmonie-hirlam consensus so far. Arpege really didn't excite and UKMO way north, GFS weak and barely yellow alert for exposed coasts (so a non-event).

Will see what ECM makes of it before deciding on a forecast emphasis but we are not "there" yet.

highdef · 06-02-2019 7:32am

nacho libre wrote: »

Well, hopefully the ECM and GFS are right about the track. Although I would not be surprised if it ends up further north on future runs.

I often read here that when a strong developing system is approaching us, they almost always correct north as they near us. Would you say this is likely to be the case again?

mirrorwall14 · 06-02-2019 9:07am

Are those charts GMT or what time of day are we looking at? Night Thursday, fri morning/evening/night?

Artane2002 · 06-02-2019 9:37am

highdef wrote: »

I often read here that when a strong developing system is approaching us, they almost always correct north as they near us. Would you say this is likely to be the case again?

This is what often happens which is why I'm not buying into this yet.

coillsaille · 06-02-2019 9:41am

Artane2002 wrote: »

This is what often happens which is why I'm not buying into this yet.

I always thought that the strongest wind field is in the southern flank of depressions. So if the models are showing the strongest winds a bit to our south wouldn't a nudge north be bad? Or am I picking things up wrong?

Artane2002 · 06-02-2019 9:44am

coillsaille wrote: »

I always thought that the strongest wind field is in the southern flank of depressions. So if the models are showing the strongest winds a bit to our south wouldn't a nudge north be bad? Or am I picking things up wrong?

What usually happens is the storm goes north enough to keep the strongest winds off the north coast.

coillsaille · 06-02-2019 9:51am

Artane2002 wrote: »

What usually happens is the storm goes north enough to keep the strongest winds off the north coast.

True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.

Loughc · 06-02-2019 9:54am

JJJJNR wrote: »

Could this pull in cold air like last year.

I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.

Artane2002 · 06-02-2019 10:07am

coillsaille wrote: »

True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.

If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.

Artane2002 · 06-02-2019 10:07am

Loughc wrote: »

I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.

Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

Loughc · 06-02-2019 10:10am

Artane2002 wrote: »

Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps?

Artane2002 · 06-02-2019 10:11am

Loughc wrote: »

But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps?

I'm talking about the weekend only.

Billy Mays · 06-02-2019 10:12am

I've a flight out of Dublin airport on Saturday morning

Should I be worried about it being cancelled?

Loughc · 06-02-2019 10:13am

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm talking about the weekend only.

Ah apologies... I thought the original poster was asking if the storm was going to bring with it a cold weather pattern for longer than the weekend, similar to late Feb last year.

coillsaille · 06-02-2019 10:20am

Artane2002 wrote: »

If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.

Apologies you are correct. I just quickly skimmed the thread this morning without having woken up fully and got the wind speed charts mixed up in my head with the pressure charts.

billie1b · 06-02-2019 11:10am

Billy Mays wrote: »

Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.

Off topic but your flight should operate as normal, I wouldn’t be worrying

JCX BXC · 06-02-2019 11:23am

I never understand why people think a storm will last 2/3 days. They never ever do, and even when they do only the largest cause disruption for 2/3 days.

And with wind events, we can't actually tell you, as often it's a nowcast in relation to storms and disruption.

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2019 11:33am

More of a spread in the models this morning. ECM is the most consistent tracking the center along the W / NW coasts keeping the strongest winds more to the Southern half of the country, not as strong as earlier runs but still up to 120 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 110 overland strongest in coastal counties.

ICON, ARPEGE tracking bit further N keeping strongest winds in W / NW.

UKMO gone very much more a Northerly track on it's own.

Would stick close to the ECM on this and lean towards ARPEGE

Bit to ho yet to pin this one down.....as ever.

Rebelbrowser · 06-02-2019 11:42am

Billy Mays wrote: »

Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.

As a regular on here, and with a flight out of Cork at 2.30pm on Friday, i was worried too to be fair to you. Think even at that time (more in the current progged time for the storm) I should be fine. Flying to England and with those winds blowing that direction too (albeit not necssarily at 30,000 ft I appreciate) i reckon it'll just be a much quicker flight!

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2019 11:43am

Mod Note: Need to keep it civil and stay on topic please.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 06-02-2019 11:46am

Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid

Artane2002 · 06-02-2019 12:05pm

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid

Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.

Loughc · 06-02-2019 12:09pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.

Or how airports deem when to ground in flights, in any weather risk the first call should be to contact your airline company, they're the only ones who can advise on flights.

Oscar Bravo · 06-02-2019 12:23pm

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

Very windy on Friday with possibly storm force winds along parts of the coast.

Valid: Friday 08 February 2019 06:00 to Friday 08 February 2019 20:00

Issued: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00

Updated: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00

Graces7 · 06-02-2019 12:26pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

We have a ferocious windchill out here now met ie says 4 but feels much lower than that,

offshore west mayo

irishrover99 · 06-02-2019 12:54pm

boocat wrote: »

Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
At least the weather is looking interesting
(Hopefully not that interesting)

What sort of nonsense is this.
Its going to be a wet and windy day.
That's all.
You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.

Reckless Abandonment · 06-02-2019 1:11pm

irishrover99 wrote: »

What sort of nonsense is this.
Its going to be a wet and windy day.
That's all.
You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.

In fairness I think they were referring to the charts been shown. Not what will happen

Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

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