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Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

  • 05-02-2019 7:21pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭


    ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

    On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

    One to watch.

    ECU1-72.GIF?05-0


«13456711

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    850hPa winds - treat this a measure of the possible peak wind gust speed in a sting jet scenario.

    Showing 75kts locally.

    ECU4-72.GIF?05-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 271 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Yep one to watch, latest UKMO fax.

    fax72s_zfm7.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 271 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    12z ICON currently showing 100kph plus gusts moving up over the country through Friday Afternoon. Subject to Upgrades and downgrades however.

    anim_sym2.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Got there before me Sleety_ rain, shut down the other thread .

    A potential storm on Fri looks more likely on the latest runs, the track now more over Ireland and deepening as it approaches the coast on the latest ECM 12Z and showing some very tight isobars overland. A bit to go and changes could occur but certainly worth keeping a close eye on. This was originally tracking further North and was not being shown as strong , it has upped wind speeds over the last couple of runs.

    Currently showing damaging wind speeds over land during Friday. Could go up or down so will need to keep an eye on forecasts.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO 12Z


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2 boocat


    Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change

    Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
    At least the weather is looking interesting
    (Hopefully not that interesting)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    UKMO 12Z






    TRhEv9k.png


    The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

    Looks a lot further north alright which is usually how these storms go as in drifting north.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

    Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,791 ✭✭✭JJJJNR


    Could this pull in cold air like last year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.


    The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    JJJJNR wrote: »
    Could this pull in cold air like last year.


    I haven't a clue to be saying yes or no.


    But if you mean storm Emma, I would say we had very cold air from an easterly over us, then i think Emma came from the South/SouthWest into that very cold air we had already upon us, that's how people got so much snow.



    I think its too warm now for that, with this storm, so we will just have wind, I don't know about rain!!!

    Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.


    The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?


    I was thinking the same, but the ECM was showing wind speeds too. So it makes it look more countrywide. I guess.... well it did to me, not knowing much.

    What is the UKMO on wind speeds?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    At the moment the UKMO showing the strongest winds more S than the ECM, don't have wind speeds for Ireland but below is wind gusts for the UK so probably a bit higher for the Southern half of Ireland going by these charts and higher again on windward coasts.

    xywQNw2.png

    21.00 Fri Gusts mph

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Will keep an eye on these over the coming runs.

    ARPEGE less strong ( being catching up to the ECM over the last couple of runs ) . ICON similar to the ECM if a tad higher but usually can knock off 5-10 kph approx as inclined to overestimate this far out , GFS less strong and showing the strongest winds off the S coast .

    arpegeuk-52-95-0_doa2.png

    iconeu_uk1-52-84-0_pjv8.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,221 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Siobhan Ryan on the 9.30 forecast . Risk of stormy weather Friday.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS 18Z more inline with the ECM now in both track and wind speed. ICON 18Z tracking further S keeping the bulk of the strongest winds for the most part offshore

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,066 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well, hopefully the ECM and GFS are right about the track. Although I would not be surprised if it ends up further north on future runs.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Met Eireann's own charts very similar to the ECM and GFS.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Potential for some very heavy rain also .

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,221 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Late night radio 1 forecast, heavy rain tomorrow evening/night, showery Thursday and the risk of stormy conditions Friday. Very unsettled.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    High tides early Fri morning, just a couple of days after Spring tides.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Can compare tonights WRF 18Z run with tomorrows.

    anim_bgy1.gif


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    A lot of rain to fall between here and Fri


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,618 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Met.ie guidance maps look like an orange alert situation for Galway Bay and much of Connacht. Stronger gradient than on most models at 00z except (oddly) the GEM. It also looks intense. I guess it's some kind of GEM-harmonie-hirlam consensus so far. Arpege really didn't excite and UKMO way north, GFS weak and barely yellow alert for exposed coasts (so a non-event).

    Will see what ECM makes of it before deciding on a forecast emphasis but we are not "there" yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,330 ✭✭✭highdef


    Well, hopefully the ECM and GFS are right about the track. Although I would not be surprised if it ends up further north on future runs.

    I often read here that when a strong developing system is approaching us, they almost always correct north as they near us. Would you say this is likely to be the case again?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    Are those charts GMT or what time of day are we looking at? Night Thursday, fri morning/evening/night?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    highdef wrote: »
    I often read here that when a strong developing system is approaching us, they almost always correct north as they near us. Would you say this is likely to be the case again?

    This is what often happens which is why I'm not buying into this yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    This is what often happens which is why I'm not buying into this yet.

    I always thought that the strongest wind field is in the southern flank of depressions. So if the models are showing the strongest winds a bit to our south wouldn't a nudge north be bad? Or am I picking things up wrong?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    I always thought that the strongest wind field is in the southern flank of depressions. So if the models are showing the strongest winds a bit to our south wouldn't a nudge north be bad? Or am I picking things up wrong?

    What usually happens is the storm goes north enough to keep the strongest winds off the north coast.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    What usually happens is the storm goes north enough to keep the strongest winds off the north coast.

    True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

    But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 25,009 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    JJJJNR wrote: »
    Could this pull in cold air like last year.

    I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

    But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.

    If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Loughc wrote: »
    I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.

    Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 25,009 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

    But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps? :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Loughc wrote: »
    But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps? :confused:

    I'm talking about the weekend only.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭Billy Mays


    I've a flight out of Dublin airport on Saturday morning

    Should I be worried about it being cancelled?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 25,009 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    I'm talking about the weekend only.

    Ah apologies... I thought the original poster was asking if the storm was going to bring with it a cold weather pattern for longer than the weekend, similar to late Feb last year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.

    Apologies you are correct. I just quickly skimmed the thread this morning without having woken up fully and got the wind speed charts mixed up in my head with the pressure charts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,816 ✭✭✭billie1b


    Billy Mays wrote: »
    Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

    Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.

    Off topic but your flight should operate as normal, I wouldn’t be worrying


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,239 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I never understand why people think a storm will last 2/3 days. They never ever do, and even when they do only the largest cause disruption for 2/3 days.

    And with wind events, we can't actually tell you, as often it's a nowcast in relation to storms and disruption.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    More of a spread in the models this morning. ECM is the most consistent tracking the center along the W / NW coasts keeping the strongest winds more to the Southern half of the country, not as strong as earlier runs but still up to 120 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 110 overland strongest in coastal counties.

    ICON, ARPEGE tracking bit further N keeping strongest winds in W / NW.

    UKMO gone very much more a Northerly track on it's own.

    Would stick close to the ECM on this and lean towards ARPEGE

    Bit to ho yet to pin this one down.....as ever.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,169 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Billy Mays wrote: »
    Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

    Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.

    As a regular on here, and with a flight out of Cork at 2.30pm on Friday, i was worried too to be fair to you. Think even at that time (more in the current progged time for the storm) I should be fine. Flying to England and with those winds blowing that direction too (albeit not necssarily at 30,000 ft I appreciate) i reckon it'll just be a much quicker flight!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: Need to keep it civil and stay on topic please.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,349 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid

    Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 25,009 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.

    Or how airports deem when to ground in flights, in any weather risk the first call should be to contact your airline company, they're the only ones who can advise on flights.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,221 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

    Very windy on Friday with possibly storm force winds along parts of the coast.

    Valid: Friday 08 February 2019 06:00 to Friday 08 February 2019 20:00

    Issued: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00

    Updated: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

    We have a ferocious windchill out here now met ie says 4 but feels much lower than that,

    offshore west mayo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    boocat wrote: »
    Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
    At least the weather is looking interesting
    (Hopefully not that interesting)

    What sort of nonsense is this.
    Its going to be a wet and windy day.
    That's all.
    You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    What sort of nonsense is this.
    Its going to be a wet and windy day.
    That's all.
    You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.

    In fairness I think they were referring to the charts been shown. Not what will happen


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