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Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

ninebeanrows

ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

One to watch.

ECU1-72.GIF?05-0

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ninebeanrows

850hPa winds - treat this a measure of the possible peak wind gust speed in a sting jet scenario.

Showing 75kts locally.

ECU4-72.GIF?05-0

Mount Vesuvius

Yep one to watch, latest UKMO fax.

Mount Vesuvius

12z ICON currently showing 100kph plus gusts moving up over the country through Friday Afternoon. Subject to Upgrades and downgrades however.

Meteorite58

Got there before me Sleety_ rain, shut down the other thread .

A potential storm on Fri looks more likely on the latest runs, the track now more over Ireland and deepening as it approaches the coast on the latest ECM 12Z and showing some very tight isobars overland. A bit to go and changes could occur but certainly worth keeping a close eye on. This was originally tracking further North and was not being shown as strong , it has upped wind speeds over the last couple of runs.

Currently showing damaging wind speeds over land during Friday. Could go up or down so will need to keep an eye on forecasts.

Meteorite58

Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change .

Meteorite58

UKMO 12Z

boocat

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change

Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
At least the weather is looking interesting
(Hopefully not that interesting)

Monkeynut

Meteorite58 wrote: »

UKMO 12Z

The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

munsterlegend

Monkeynut wrote: »

The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

Looks a lot further north alright which is usually how these storms go as in drifting north.

Meteorite58

Monkeynut wrote: »

The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?

Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

JJJJNR

Could this pull in cold air like last year.

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?

Monkeynut

JJJJNR wrote: »

Could this pull in cold air like last year.

I haven't a clue to be saying yes or no.

But if you mean storm Emma, I would say we had very cold air from an easterly over us, then i think Emma came from the South/SouthWest into that very cold air we had already upon us, that's how people got so much snow.

I think its too warm now for that, with this storm, so we will just have wind, I don't know about rain!!!

munsterlegend wrote: »

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?

I was thinking the same, but the ECM was showing wind speeds too. So it makes it look more countrywide. I guess.... well it did to me, not knowing much.

What is the UKMO on wind speeds?

Meteorite58

At the moment the UKMO showing the strongest winds more S than the ECM, don't have wind speeds for Ireland but below is wind gusts for the UK so probably a bit higher for the Southern half of Ireland going by these charts and higher again on windward coasts.

21.00 Fri Gusts mph

Meteorite58

Will keep an eye on these over the coming runs.

ARPEGE less strong ( being catching up to the ECM over the last couple of runs ) . ICON similar to the ECM if a tad higher but usually can knock off 5-10 kph approx as inclined to overestimate this far out , GFS less strong and showing the strongest winds off the S coast .

Oscar Bravo

Siobhan Ryan on the 9.30 forecast . Risk of stormy weather Friday.

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z more inline with the ECM now in both track and wind speed. ICON 18Z tracking further S keeping the bulk of the strongest winds for the most part offshore

nacho libre

Well, hopefully the ECM and GFS are right about the track. Although I would not be surprised if it ends up further north on future runs.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann's own charts very similar to the ECM and GFS.

Meteorite58

Potential for some very heavy rain also .

Oscar Bravo

Late night radio 1 forecast, heavy rain tomorrow evening/night, showery Thursday and the risk of stormy conditions Friday. Very unsettled.

Meteorite58

High tides early Fri morning, just a couple of days after Spring tides.

Meteorite58

Can compare tonights WRF 18Z run with tomorrows.

A lot of rain to fall between here and Fri

M.T. Cranium

Met.ie guidance maps look like an orange alert situation for Galway Bay and much of Connacht. Stronger gradient than on most models at 00z except (oddly) the GEM. It also looks intense. I guess it's some kind of GEM-harmonie-hirlam consensus so far. Arpege really didn't excite and UKMO way north, GFS weak and barely yellow alert for exposed coasts (so a non-event).

Will see what ECM makes of it before deciding on a forecast emphasis but we are not "there" yet.

highdef

nacho libre wrote: »

Well, hopefully the ECM and GFS are right about the track. Although I would not be surprised if it ends up further north on future runs.

I often read here that when a strong developing system is approaching us, they almost always correct north as they near us. Would you say this is likely to be the case again?

mirrorwall14

Are those charts GMT or what time of day are we looking at? Night Thursday, fri morning/evening/night?

Artane2002

highdef wrote: »

I often read here that when a strong developing system is approaching us, they almost always correct north as they near us. Would you say this is likely to be the case again?

This is what often happens which is why I'm not buying into this yet.

coillsaille

Artane2002 wrote: »

This is what often happens which is why I'm not buying into this yet.

I always thought that the strongest wind field is in the southern flank of depressions. So if the models are showing the strongest winds a bit to our south wouldn't a nudge north be bad? Or am I picking things up wrong?

Artane2002

coillsaille wrote: »

I always thought that the strongest wind field is in the southern flank of depressions. So if the models are showing the strongest winds a bit to our south wouldn't a nudge north be bad? Or am I picking things up wrong?

What usually happens is the storm goes north enough to keep the strongest winds off the north coast.

coillsaille

Artane2002 wrote: »

What usually happens is the storm goes north enough to keep the strongest winds off the north coast.

True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.