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Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

ninebeanrows

ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

One to watch.

ECU1-72.GIF?05-0

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Loughc

JJJJNR wrote: »

Could this pull in cold air like last year.

I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.

Artane2002

coillsaille wrote: »

True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.

If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.

Artane2002

Loughc wrote: »

I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.

Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

Loughc

Artane2002 wrote: »

Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps?

Artane2002

Loughc wrote: »

But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps?

I'm talking about the weekend only.

Billy Mays

I've a flight out of Dublin airport on Saturday morning

Should I be worried about it being cancelled?

Loughc

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm talking about the weekend only.

Ah apologies... I thought the original poster was asking if the storm was going to bring with it a cold weather pattern for longer than the weekend, similar to late Feb last year.

coillsaille

Artane2002 wrote: »

If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.

Apologies you are correct. I just quickly skimmed the thread this morning without having woken up fully and got the wind speed charts mixed up in my head with the pressure charts.

billie1b

Billy Mays wrote: »

Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.

Off topic but your flight should operate as normal, I wouldn’t be worrying

JCX BXC

I never understand why people think a storm will last 2/3 days. They never ever do, and even when they do only the largest cause disruption for 2/3 days.

And with wind events, we can't actually tell you, as often it's a nowcast in relation to storms and disruption.

Meteorite58

More of a spread in the models this morning. ECM is the most consistent tracking the center along the W / NW coasts keeping the strongest winds more to the Southern half of the country, not as strong as earlier runs but still up to 120 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 110 overland strongest in coastal counties.

ICON, ARPEGE tracking bit further N keeping strongest winds in W / NW.

UKMO gone very much more a Northerly track on it's own.

Would stick close to the ECM on this and lean towards ARPEGE

Bit to ho yet to pin this one down.....as ever.

Rebelbrowser

Billy Mays wrote: »

Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.

As a regular on here, and with a flight out of Cork at 2.30pm on Friday, i was worried too to be fair to you. Think even at that time (more in the current progged time for the storm) I should be fine. Flying to England and with those winds blowing that direction too (albeit not necssarily at 30,000 ft I appreciate) i reckon it'll just be a much quicker flight!

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Need to keep it civil and stay on topic please.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid

Artane2002

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid

Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.

Loughc

Artane2002 wrote: »

Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.

Or how airports deem when to ground in flights, in any weather risk the first call should be to contact your airline company, they're the only ones who can advise on flights.

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

Very windy on Friday with possibly storm force winds along parts of the coast.

Valid: Friday 08 February 2019 06:00 to Friday 08 February 2019 20:00

Issued: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00

Updated: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00

Graces7

Artane2002 wrote: »

Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

We have a ferocious windchill out here now met ie says 4 but feels much lower than that,

offshore west mayo

irishrover99

boocat wrote: »

Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
At least the weather is looking interesting
(Hopefully not that interesting)

What sort of nonsense is this.
Its going to be a wet and windy day.
That's all.
You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.

Reckless Abandonment

irishrover99 wrote: »

What sort of nonsense is this.
Its going to be a wet and windy day.
That's all.
You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.

In fairness I think they were referring to the charts been shown. Not what will happen

irishrover99

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

In fairness I think they were referring to the charts been shown. Not what will happen

I think he was talking about a red warning.

Reckless Abandonment

irishrover99 wrote: »

I think he was talking about a red warning.

Really don't want to derail things but aren't gusts over 130km a criteria for a red ?

SleetAndSnow

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Really don't want to derail things but aren't gusts over 130km a criteria for a red ?

Weather Element Criteria for Red – Severe Weather Warnings
1. Wind Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h
Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h

So yes. Considering what the charts were showing yesterday he was right I think, they have since lowered windspeeds since last night though

Villain

Just coming into view on Hi Res models now, HIRLAM chart

Will be interesting to see the track this one takes.

Rebelbrowser

Looks further north at 6am on Friday on the Euro04 model

Rebelbrowser

By way of update, on the 12zs only Hirlam has this centred on Ireland - UKMO, GFS, ICON and Aperge all show it going into Scotland mostly. Still windy here.

squarecircles

JCX BXC

What model is that?

Villain

ECMWF has shifted a little but still showing damaging gusts, especially in West

SleetAndSnow

Looked pretty severe on the west and south coasts there on the 6.1 news