Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Wanderer78 · 09-03-2022 10:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755425#Comment_118755425

money creation can be beneficial to society, if its used correctly, but its been primarily being used to inflate asset prices such as property. we need a continual supply of new money via debt creation, but we must use it for productive means, including creating new assets such as new properties, its also important to remember, the majority of money creation is still occurring in the private domain, in private sector financial institutions, but now the central banks have also gotten in on the act, and are using their money creation systems, i.e. qe, to also inflate asset prices, this is catastrophically failing!

J_1980 · 09-03-2022 10:19am

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0308/1285193-cost-of-building-two-bed-apartment-jumps-14-since-2020/

construcion costs up 14%. Probably up another 5% this month alone…

Amadan Dubh · 09-03-2022 10:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755425#Comment_118755425

Exactly and this is why, when people say, "other countries have housing crises, it's not just Ireland", it is an argument ignorant of the fact that other countries have asset bubbles as well caused by the same thing. This also applies to mean that trouble elsewhere will also mean trouble in Ireland.

At the same time, if house prices and rents dropped 30/40% (losing half the gains in this bubble), don't be fooled into thinking that the individuals in Ireland are the ones who will suffer. In fact, we will find that actually this has not put many if any in negative equity (due to LTV and LTI limits) and renters will be happy to see the rental market bubble deflate. The biggest losers will be the institutional investors this time around (unless the government decides to funnel more borrowed cash into their pockets to soften their landing).

RichardAnd · 09-03-2022 10:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755524#Comment_118755524

Hmm given that the people who hold the reigns of power here (along with most of the older generations) know that their pensions are coming from funds, I think it's safe to say that they will fight to the end to protect them, regardless of the costs.

Villa05 · 09-03-2022 10:39am

The cost of building a 2bed apartment is 219k and that is up 27k from 2020. I think that underlines the complete and utter failure of the state to address housing when the country was flush with extra corporation taxes, rising tax income in all other areas, stable material prices, and 0 cost money.

It further underlines how our system adds additional costs far in excess of the build cost

Housing has been made into a gravy train. Every politician in the country should hang their head in shame, quit and forego their pensions for the mess they have made of the state.

If Putin decides to invade us, he will not need to install a puppet regime, it comes pre packaged

RichardAnd · 09-03-2022 11:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755559#Comment_118755559

The politicians are merely the tip of the iceberg. There are legions of civil servants who played a part in this mess, and they don't even have to face the public.

Honestly, if I were in power, I would forego my pension, resign and then publish a letter of apology to the Irish people. There wouldn't be much of a choice in it; my own conscience would eat me alive if I didn't.

MacronvFrugals · 09-03-2022 11:16am

Its all well and good giving ABP ultimate decision on new developments but can already see the new slums of the future with zero services that nobody wants to live in, is the hypothesis 'build it and the services will come?'

She’s run Magic Moments from Quadrant House on Chapelizod Road since 2014, but last June, she got a one-year notice period from her landlord for her creche to close to make way for a development of 131 homes.

The application, which is at a pre-planning stage, hasn’t so far proposed a replacement creche, and parents in the area say that there are already limited options.

Parents will have to drive from the already traffic-choked Chapelizod to find childcare, says Sophie Nicoullaud, an independent councillor.

The An Bord Pleanála inspector’s report on the planning application for the apartment blocks that would replace Magic Moments said that more clarification on the provision of childcare is needed, recognising that the creche will be closed.

“A replacement creche facility is not proposed and the existing facility has been included within the baseline data presented,” it says, suggesting that there was an analysis done that counted the Magic Moments creche within neighbourhood provision.

An Bord Pleanála did not respond to queries sent Monday asking for clarity on that.

In Chapelizod, a Creche Faces Closure – to Make Way for New Housing

https://dublininquirer.com/2022/03/09/in-chapelizod-a-creche-faces-closure-to-make-way-for-new-housing

09-03-2022 12:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755425#Comment_118755425

It sure does not look good. Is there any in this country actually fit for purpose? Housing, Healthcare, Public Transport to name a few things are all lagging considerably, with zero signs of them improving anytime soon.

combat14 · 09-03-2022 12:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755457#Comment_118755457

more and more talk of looming recession on the cards the longer this war in ukraine goes on the prices of energy and more keep rising...

deisel now 2.15 in anticipation of cut to excise duty .. most people will start cutting back their spending on everything else at these prices .....serious recession on the way...

09-03-2022 12:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755524#Comment_118755524

Interesting thoughts, but will the rent bubble / property bubble deflate anytime soon?

RichardAnd · 09-03-2022 12:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756080#Comment_118756080

Does any country really get this right? My own opinion is that the state has far, far too much power and influence. I would rather have a small state with limited services and low taxes. The states simply aren't sustainable in the long term, and we need to think of the future generations. What we have instead is a system where the government is involved in every aspect of life. I don't especially like that, and I would rather govern my own life. However, I've more than once been told that I'm a radicle heh.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756098#Comment_118756098

"Gooooood. Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen"

Amadan Dubh · 09-03-2022 2:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756080#Comment_118756080

Is our healthcare, public transport, education and excellent housing system not the reason for house prices have soared the last 7/8 years? People have been saying that the fundamentals are solid so presumably they are referring to all aspects of Irish life that have improved from the excellent investments made the last decade.

Amadan Dubh · 09-03-2022 2:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756106#Comment_118756106

People who hate doomsayers like to dismiss them by saying "Being early is the same as being wrong". But that doesn't mean that there is no credibility to what is being flagged as a risk factor. I mean, people were saying things about our housing market years before 2008.

And I know people say that "well if you listened to people in 04/05/06 etc" you'd be in a worse position today, but my premise is that the assumptions they use to argue that are not without risks, ie that today is more stable and not a bubble. The main contention I have is that you take away the State and its squandering of our cheap and easy to access borrowing and its minority-favouring property market policies and the whole thing falls apart. In effect, that our property market "recovery" post-08 is just as much of a sham as it was in the build up to 08 and this will be found out when it turns out that actually it is not sustainable for the State to redirect so much cash into propping up housing costs while other aspects of the economy are destitute (infrastructure, education, energy and food security).

Biggest risk factors to revealing that the property market emporer has no clothes;

1. Political - loopy lefties get in to power, referendum on united Ireland passes, EU membership questioned etc.

2. Economic - inflation continues to soar, government has to redirect precious cash away from property and into other areas; interest rates rise more than 1/2% in the next 1-2 year, government cannot borrow at zero percent rates anymore except for investing in energy, defence, food etc.

3. Demand - wfh, MNC growth plans change, corporate tax impact, cost of living, housing shortage etc all reduce well paid workers coming to Ireland and it is obvious that Ukranian refugees, students and low paid Brazilians won't be the ones to sustain our current housing costs let alone further increases.

Villa05 · 09-03-2022 2:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756106#Comment_118756106

Good question

The system as it stands is to maintain high rents and asset prices, however that system has been pushed to the limits by Governments, Central banks and financial industry plus various vested interests and I think its close to collapse

Villa05 · 09-03-2022 2:43pm

Even now, the State is putting demand side policies for energy costs it needs to be rationed immediately

Compulsory wfh where its requested by employee. Park and ride facilities at population centres. Army and every bus in the country fully utilised to get people to work that need to be there.

This is not just about costs and supply, it's just as much about where the money is going.

If it's funding the bombing of schools hospitals and children. We should all be on bycicles

And if wind turbines and solar farms are an inconvenience to your views from your home, try the barrel of a tank. Planning objections to these should be reviewed

JimmyVik · 09-03-2022 3:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756106#Comment_118756106

It cant.

What we have now is ordinary tax payers having their own tax dollars used to bid against them. Driving up the price of houses for them if they ever do get another chance to buy. Also their tax dollars being used to prop up rents too, with them being used to pay for expensive leases on properties that the tax payer will never get a sniff of.

So there you have it. Ordinary people not being abale to afford to buy or rent, but actually they are buying and renting - for other people who arent contributing.

What a fcuked up situation. The only way out is to get out of this tax system by either just quitting and giving up or leave the country to somewhere where you arent getting taxed to death and getting nothing for it.

danfrancisco83 · 09-03-2022 3:27pm

I'm guessing the catch here, is that whoever buys this house will have a battle on their hands getting the property back from the tenants. Looks like a nice estate, 3 bed semi-d in Dublin, for just over 200k? https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-17-ashfield-way-balbriggan-co-dublin/3726388

JimmyVik · 09-03-2022 3:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118757357#Comment_118757357

I know 2 different people going on 4 years now trying to get no paying tenants out. So it could be some battle.

iColdFusion · 09-03-2022 4:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118757357#Comment_118757357

I don't think any bank will give a mortgage on a property with in situ tenants like that, has to be a cash buyer, unusual it isn't on BidX1 and the like.

cubatahavana · 09-03-2022 4:58pm

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/75_johnstown_road_dun_laoghaire_co_dublin_ireland-462918/

Differences between 2020 and 2022.

Number 75 sold in 2020 for 465

Number 77 sold in 2022 for 670

Amadan Dubh · 09-03-2022 6:41pm

200 brand new homes at the edge of Bray to be bought up for social housing.

What an absolute con the whole housing market is for working people. I have a job interview for a transfer within my company to another European country later this week; the only way to avoid this farce is to leave the country at this stage.

"Demand is solid" = demand is being manipulated to remain artificially high.

"This time it's different" = individuals aren't over leveraged to the same extent but the taxpayer will still be on the hook for the inevitable bust.

https://m.independent.ie/regionals/wicklow/news/200-homes-in-bray-to-be-sold-to-provide-social-housing-41425747.html

Timing belt · 09-03-2022 6:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758558#Comment_118758558

if new job in Luxembourg make sure you get free accommodation with the job…if you think things are bad here….lux can be an eye opener. Most of the employees commute in from other countries as prices are so crazy.

Jonnyc135 · 09-03-2022 6:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758558#Comment_118758558

I'm afraid all the European countries are the same governed by the ECB that have got inflation so wrong its actually frightening. Ireland is a special case though a real special case in how to sell its honest decent hard working people out. Ireland, oppressed by the English, got Independency and became oppressed by the Catholic church, then became oppressed by the troika now we are oppressed by the Multinationals and the Investment firms that control our government that sold us out.

JimmyVik · 09-03-2022 6:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758558#Comment_118758558

Theres another 200 apartments that we have all bought here. Good on us for bidding against ourselves and leaving most of us stuck renting.

Timing belt · 09-03-2022 7:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758653#Comment_118758653

This is what some people are looking for the government to do….have social housing and stop paying HAP….

JimmyVik · 09-03-2022 7:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758699#Comment_118758699

The way i see it is the tax payer is being frozen out of the market while being asked to pay for housing for those who dont pay tax.

The more you earn the worse off you are in this country. And its getting worse all the time.

snow_bunny · 09-03-2022 7:20pm

It's fuc$king scandalous.

Seriously though, how can this keep going on? Where is the money coming from? Is there any chance the imminent collapse of the Russian economy will help to turn off the free money tap for the government?

Any chance of a significant rate rise that would lock investors out?

You can only get secure housing here if you're long term state dependent or in the top 15% of earners. Before anyone tells me there's a 1970's dog box in Leitrim for 200k; those of us that work need to be within commuting distance.

At this stage anyone I know, 25-40yrs old, who hasn't been lucky enough to buy, is praying HARD for a recession, job losses and economic hardship or not...it's a better bet than what we currently have to contend with! What's the point in working hard for nothing only to fund other peoples security and quality of life??? At least if we all lose our jobs and end up on the dole we won't have to worry about rent.

Villa05 · 09-03-2022 7:46pm

Interesting contrast between the states approach to electricity provision and our housing provision

The ESB are set to announce a profit of 659 million euro tomorrow. Always good to have something to fall back on when a crisis hits.

Meanwhile the state is forking out billions to foreign funds for housing. Think of what the state could make if they had significant stock of build to rent properties close to the cities for essential staff to keep those cities thriving. Rent at half the market rate would make a good return

If only

Amadan Dubh · 09-03-2022 8:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758623#Comment_118758623

Luxembourg? Schweiz!

And we have done our research, Switzerland isn't as bad as Ireland. There is housing available at different price points and you can compromise on a city lifestyle to get cheaper housing, but you aren't actually cut off as public transport is incredible and its punctuality even competes with the Japanese. The funny thing is, with a CHF to EUR conversion, on average rents are lower in Switzerland but the big selling point is that income tax is a lot lower than here and wages are higher with the net effect that you are far better off financially in Switzerland than Ireland. And thinking Ireland is on par with Switzerland is to really live in a bubble.

RichardAnd · 09-03-2022 9:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758758#Comment_118758758

I wouldn't say that I'm praying for a recession, but I can't see how one is not coming eventually. The longer it takes to arrive, the more damage it will do as more and more people will have been sucked in to the bubble before it blows. Thus, it would be better that it happens sooner rather than later.

For my own part, if there were to be a recession, there is a possibility that I would lose my job. However, I have no dependents, and if there is no reversal of house prices, I will never own a home and will thus be condemned to a life in the pod whilst watching my beloved homeland turn into a globalist wealth farm. Given that, I'd be willing to take my chances with a crash...

Timing belt · 09-03-2022 9:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759047#Comment_118759047

Wages are higher there because the cost of living is higher buy you would have more disposable income as long as you don't have kids and not eating out all the time. Been in Zurich a few times with work and have a few friends in Geneva and it's childcare costs that they found to be the killer paying over 4k a month for 2 kids. Best of luck with the interview I would do the same if I was in your shoes and had the opportunity

Amadan Dubh · 09-03-2022 9:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759282#Comment_118759282

Thank you. The last two years with COVID restrictions it really gave us the motivation to try to make a move away, with housing being the biggest reason, but we'll see how it goes. Still have to get through the interview process, though it was only advertised internally and there's not a lot of competition.

I'll be logging off from this forum hopefully in a few months!

houseyhouse · 09-03-2022 9:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758758#Comment_118758758

I agree that housing is too expensive at the moment. I agree that it’s unfair that working people have worse housing than those who don’t/can’t work. But I just don’t buy the narrative that only those in the top 10% can buy. Average income in Q3 was 44k. Yes that’s mean not median but it also includes people working part time. Median income was 36k in 2018 (around 4K less than mean at that time). This also includes those not working full time. A couple on 40k each can get a mortgage for 280k. With a deposit of 32k (~10%) they can buy property worth 312k. Yes that’s a lot to save on that income, but totally achievable over a couple of years, especially without dependants. Normal people always had to save hard for their first house. There are over 3.5k 3-bed properties on daft under 300k. Some are even in Dublin.

I live in a 3-bed semi-d in Galway city. It’s a crappy outdated house in a decent location. My neighbours with young families who’ve bought in the last few years include childcare workers, teachers, nurses, catering staff, local shop owners, physios, factory workers, engineers, builders and electricians. Normal people in normal jobs. It can be done.

There’s a narrative going around that we’re all victims of the system and there’s nothing we can do about it so we shouldn’t even try. It’s tedious and it’s not true.

RichardAnd · 09-03-2022 9:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759410#Comment_118759410

Unfortunately, the prices listed on Daft of myHome are largely meaningless. A house for 350k in Dublin will go for more than the asking price, and often a lot more. I recently viewed a tiny house in west Dublin that was advertised for 275. A week later, the highest offer was 330k, and I don't know what it eventually sold for. A house on the same road as my mom's house (Dublin 5) recently sold for 120k over the asking price.

Realistically, the houses that will sell for 300k in Dublin will be in bad areas, and I've even heard of houses in very bad areas to shoot over the asking price too. Yes, a couple has options, but they are very limited. Single people are doomed for the most part.

snow_bunny · 09-03-2022 10:05pm

Try buying that 320k house now, it's gone up at least 20-30%. Try bidding on anything for that price in Dublin and see the bidding go 100k over asking in a couple of days. Try bidding against a fund or a council with a money tree, see how you get on. Try saving that deposit while paying over 50% of your take home pay on rent-it'd take nearly a decade.

You don't understand because you're not in it and you got in there on time. Confirmation bias.

houseyhouse · 09-03-2022 10:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759547#Comment_118759547

We bought in 2020. My sister bought on her own in 2021. I have friends who bought last year and others buying right now. None of these people are in the top 10% of earners.

RichardAnd · 09-03-2022 10:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759547#Comment_118759547

It's not just Dublin. This is happening in the other cities and the larger towns also. I've seen houses in Gorey shoot 50k over the asking price. The only houses that seem to sell for their asking prices are rural houses that are too remote to be suitable for most people.

I agree that there is a confirmation bias. Relatives will send me houses from time to time that are listed at the limit of what my budget would be. I know that they mean well, but they just don't understand what's happening. I've even stopped reading these messages. What's the point in wasting time seeing these houses that, in many cases, I don't even want to live in?

As I said above, I don't WANT a crash to happen, but as time goes by, I'm realising that I don't have a lot to lose.

RichardAnd · 09-03-2022 10:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759620#Comment_118759620

I'm happy that you found a place, and you are right that it's not just the top 10% who are able to buy. However this doesn't change the fact that a considerable proportion of those under 40 are totally priced out of owning a home. On top of that, how many of those who do buy are compromising to be able to do so? My brother and his wife moved to Wexford, and other friends have left Dublin too. I would consider it myself, but I have to look after my mother and grandmother who reside here.

When someone is priced out Dublin, they can move to the "commuter" towns. However, this, in turn, will price out someone who may want to live in the said town. This means that someone is leaving the community that they grew up in to live somewhere where they have no connection or roots. This is a very, very bad for society in the long-term, and it's just one more cost of this fund farm that the state has set up to keep the pension and welfare gravy train rolling for another few years.

PommieBast · 09-03-2022 10:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759366#Comment_118759366

Pretty much the same with me. Other countries may be notionally more expensive but at least they are functional.

Giblet · 09-03-2022 11:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758558#Comment_118758558

I find the whole "Oh individuals can't borrow more than 3.5x so it's different this time". It's different alright, and also exactly the same. It doesn't matter who borrows, be it an individual or a massive investment trust / property developer. Someone is borrowing more than they can afford.

Amadan Dubh · 09-03-2022 11:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752962#Comment_118752962

I have some magic beans to sell you if you like?

houseyhouse · 10-03-2022 12:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759683#Comment_118759683

OF COURSE we compromised!! Everything about my house is a compromise: the size, the quality, the orientation, the location! My sister and friends all made various compromises as well.

Look, my point was that you don’t have to buy into the idea that there’s nothing you can do. Buy with a friend if you’re single, buy in a less desirable area, move to a commuter town, buy a fixer-upper, whatever. If you’re in a low wage job, then retrain or try to move up the ladder. Make your peace with renting if it allows you to live where you want - I know people who’ve done that, too. But whatever you do, don’t put your life on hold and wait for something/somebody else to fix things for you.

Subzero3 · 10-03-2022 2:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759996#Comment_118759996

Do sure, if they grow I might be able to build a tree house :)

Its going to be an interesting year in the housing market. One thing for sure is the tax payer will be shafted.

RichardAnd · 10-03-2022 10:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118760525#Comment_118760525

Fair points.

Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to say that there never should be compromise. Life is all about compromise at the end of the day. However, I don't believe that we should just accept that things are the way they are.

houseyhouse · 10-03-2022 11:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761147#Comment_118761147

Of course. I’m not saying accept the current situation as being good or right. But for your own sake you need to accept that this is how it is and try to do the best for yourself.

There is a narrative online and in the media that encourages people to be outraged and do nothing to help themselves. Be outraged. But also, figure out how to get what you want. It’s rarely been easy to buy your first house. My own parents and aunts and uncles all made huge sacrifices and compromises but they live in lovely houses in the end.

JimmyVik · 10-03-2022 1:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758758#Comment_118758758

The money is coming out of the pockets of the very people who are trying to pay good money to buy a house, but being outbid by councils and reits funded by their own tax money as an extra slap in the face.

Villa05 · 10-03-2022 1:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118760525#Comment_118760525

Maybe people are waiting for others to stop making things more difficult for them. The vast majority of working people aspire to meet there own shelter needs, if an entity is taking their money to drive up the price of shelter, we have a big problem

AdamD · 10-03-2022 1:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762334#Comment_118762334

He has a point though, plenty of people are still buying houses and properties, making it work for them. Its likely better than waiting around for an external solution that may never come

MacronvFrugals · 10-03-2022 2:09pm

Euro Jumps As ECB Accelerates Wind-Down Of Asset-Purchases

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1501904175101366277?s=20&t=Rbbrd0VngjdZ03iJBuvFqw

fliball123 · 10-03-2022 2:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118734745#Comment_118734745

What like Brexit and Covid 2 huge shocks and what way did prices go? So it truly different as both of these events should of had a downward force on prices but that did not happen

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Comments

In Chapelizod, a Creche Faces Closure – to Make Way for New Housing

Euro Jumps As ECB Accelerates Wind-Down Of Asset-Purchases

Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting