Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986747#Comment_117986747

If there was a demand shock such as a global recession brought about by a black swan event we would be in pretty much the same situation in the housing market as we are today because the response by the central banks would be to undertake more QE which would lower rates and keep them lower for longer driving more investors into the housing market as they chase yields.

The only way demand in housing in Ireland would reduce is if we saw less people migrating to Ireland or an increase in emigration as people leave Ireland. As long as the population stays the same the demand will be there. People will need to be housed regardless of economic conditions.

Villa05

Anyone thinking that recent developments in China with evergrande and the authorities taking the heat out of the property market there will lead to a reversal in inflation in building raw materials.

I read that building activities account for 40% of GDP in China. At the height of our boom it was circa 20%.

Eye watering figures

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987855#Comment_117987855

Demand shock ? If people cant afford to buy they still have to live somewhere? What is the alternative pay sky high rents ?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987339#Comment_117987339

All valid and fair points in a stable economy, however we have an incredibly transient workforce. Many Irish are leaving while being replaced by a greater number of foreign nationals. This leaves us extremely vulnerable to boom bust policies coupled with our huge debtq

20k leave Ireland every year while 40k come in. How would a sudden economic shock affect these numbers.

Can't imagine the state paying over 1billion and rising plus the multiple schemes that prop up prices and rents in such a scenario.

Would our bailout friends be as helping if we get in trouble yet again because of a property bubble

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986820#Comment_117986820

I agree that lack of supply is the biggest determinant of price but regardless of who is in power their are barriers to increasing supply.

There is no shortage of land that could be built on to increase supply. The issue is that the land is either not zoned for residential or is being horded by developers. If there was more land zoned for residential this would lower the value of land being horded by developers and reduce the cost of new houses. But it's not as simple as just increasing the amount of residential zoned land because doing so without a strategic plan would only lead to more problems and more land being horded.

The changes that I would like to see are:

• A use it or lose it policy with the rezoning of land that is residential land that is horded back to non-residential if not being used within a specific time period.
• Heavily Tax profits on rezoning of land - This would prevent people from buying non-residential land and sitting on it waiting for it to be rezoned to make a profit in the future.
• Compulsory purchase orders by the state of land that was previously zoned as residential and is now non-residential due to the use it or lose policy.
• The state would then rezone the land back to residential and build affordable housing on it. (It would be affordable due to the reduced land cost)

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117988388#Comment_117988388

The only barrier is the willingness to remove them. All explained by McWilliams far better than I ever could.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/174-theproblemwithhousingzoning

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987855#Comment_117987855

The level of corporate debt has increased during the pandemic along with the risks associated with it.

The act of fed stepping in buying pretty much any debt in early 2020 (including junk) provides investors with comfort that in the event of a crisis in the debt market central banks would step in to prevent a crisis.

The Evergrande implosion is challenging this assumption because China is not stepping in and allowing it to play out.

Villa05

Another barrier is regulation. In the north regulation is handled by a private company therefore independent and accountable as opposed to our taxpayer covers everything at great expense. The larger builders pay more while smaller builder pays a little less therefore while here expensive architects etc have to be paid for compliance. This gives a competitive advantage to large builders while being a barrier to entry for smaller builders

The regulation in the north is much cheaper and fit for purpose unlike our cumbersome expensive and inadequate system.

This is by choice

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987893#Comment_117987893

No seller on a private treaty sale needs accept any offer even if it's at or above the asking price

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117988173#Comment_117988173

Interesting to think about the type of population growth which will feed into demand; a lot of immigrants won't be able/intend to buy housing in Ireland and the eye watering rents won't be paid by those coming here for all but the top jobs but we won't be able to sustain growth in population from people taking on top jobs alone without accompanying lower paid jobs to service the economy. This has been the case pre-covid but I do feel we are close to the peak with rents, unless salaries can significantly increase (20%+).

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117989356#Comment_117989356

immigrants some may not be able to buy but they will have to be housed as this is the nature of our lift leaning political sphere in this country throw in Sinn Fein will probably be in power an even more left wing alternative to the current political structure. The eye watering rents will be paid by billy and bobby the tax payer.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117989356#Comment_117989356

Regardless of whether they rent or buy they will need housing. If the cost of housing is to high they will end up in overcrowded rented accommodation but this still adds to pressure on housing cost and supports the high rents.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117989519#Comment_117989519

You assume immigrants will not pay their own rent?

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117989539#Comment_117989539

They need housing but you can't get blood from a stone and quite simply people won't be able to afford rents increasing much further without salaries significantly going up as well. It also means the government is totally snookered with trying to introduce tax increases so long as housing costs do not plummet, as it will push even more people towards alternative parties which the government cannot afford to do. It's a slow motion car crash as I see it and I know there is no orderly exit from the volatile price movements in the property market.

Hubertj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117988598#Comment_117988598

you make an interesting point about regulation, especially considering your love of conspiracy theories linking political parties to construction. Here’s 1 for you - what influence will Tom McFeely have on building regs in the Republic if Sinn Fein get into government?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991322#Comment_117991322

The implementation of the much better system in the north would greatly reduce a reoccurrence, while the self certifying system in the Republic does nothing to alleviate such issues.

Welcome back

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117989539#Comment_117989539

Rents were rising substantially partly because prices of most other basics were stable or falling. Property saw the opportunity, marched in and hovered up spare available cash

Do you think these rents will be sustainable when their is significant inflation and added taxation on essential consumer goods and services.

Bargain_Hound

In Co Dublin, 2-bed terrace house neighboring us just went sale agreed at 335k from asking price 285k. It sold in 2016 for 200k. Crazy prices.

pkvader

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117988916#Comment_117988916

I know that,im just curious what the process is when you put in a bid less than the asking price,do Auctioneera contact you and let you know if the seller is interested etc..

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992071#Comment_117992071

Auctioneer will generally ring you back to let you know the state of play with your bid. If it's a property they expect significant interest in they wait for the natural bidding process come into play.

If it is a property where there is not a lot of interest they will see if they can get the bidder and vendor to come to an agreement. This may or may not be possible

Villa05

Interesting theroies from Jeremy Grantham in an interview with Moneyweek.

Hollowing out of the economies by a focus on capital as opposed to labour, leading to a population that are unable to afford the basics.

Jeremy believes we are in a bubble of historic proportions. Interestingly they discuss what bubbles have left us after everything has blown over and the mention how Ireland, USA and Spain had a huge overhang of housing which they see as a positive.

Amazing to think where we are now in a housing crisis from where we have come from

https://moneyweek.com/jeremy-grantham-podcast

mcsean2163

Amadan Dubh,

Have you seen this yet?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-mount-pleasant-villas-upper-dargle-road-bray-wicklow/4534247

Ticks a lot of boxes, it's the best I've seen for a while and although a high price for Bray is not as shocking as some of the others IMHO...

pkvader

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992261#Comment_117992261

Cheers,the property we are interested in has been bid on numerous times over the past 10 months.Been on and off Auctioneeras site,so theres something up behind the scenes with it.We've a viewing booked so hopefully that will reveal more.We're are only in a position very recently to start looking as our own house has sold.The house is one we really want,but not getting our hopes up as there must be something off when it ,that it still hasn't sold.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992430#Comment_117992430

thats a lovely house. And pretty central i think.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992430#Comment_117992430

Used to live very near that. Take a walk up there at night. And walk up to James Everett behind it (I dare you) :)

Those pictures are not telling you the true story of that location.

super_furry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986853#Comment_117986853

Exactly this. I've been paying £2,000 a month for the last four years on my mortgage. In that time the rent on the smaller less desirable dwelling I was renting previously has jumped from £2,300 a month to €2,800. I know that because a friend is renting it now. Paying a mortgage is cheaper than paying rent in this country and until that changes, the demand for property won't either.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992508#Comment_117992508

Thanks JimmyVik,

Looks okay but we've been living in Dublin 8..... Is Everett park still known for anti social behaviour? Bit worried by the fact it's end of terrace, i.e. People hopping over the wall to go a robbing. Is it a high crime area?

74 JAMES EVERETT PARK BRAY

Sold 2020 for €325,000

Doesn't suggest a crime ridden ghetto.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992727#Comment_117992727

Bought by the council would be my guess.

I know plenty of people beaten up on the upper dargle road on the way home from the pub.

Everett park, roger casement and old conna. I wouldnt walk in them on my own at night.

That said though you would never have to go into them from that house, but they would be in your garden for sure :)

The way I look at it is if I had a million euro to spend on a house would it be there?

Also, check the planning in the garden beside that million euro house.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991559#Comment_117991559

Rents were rising because of lack of competition due to under supply of housing...rents will continue to rise in line with CPI regardless of inflation or increases in tax because people won’t have an alternative and have to live somewhere. It’s a captive market.

The first sign of the housing market starting to stabilize will be when there is a glut of properties to rent and as a result rents will fall. Only when this happens will house prices stabilize and in the mean time there will be upward pressure on house prices.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992727#Comment_117992727

Dargle road upper is directly in front of Fassaroe, a.big council estate, and while I have no issue with social housing in general, this particular estate is not great.

I wouldn't advise a friend to buy here.

Edit, actually looking at the house, it's probably nice enough to forget that estate. It's beautiful