Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

What is the alternative than to compromise. Continue paying higher rents how will you be saving paying more rent and trying to save at the same time as apposed to just paying a mortgage then the hope that prices will fall when the majority of the indicators would suggest they will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Ask anyone who went into negative equity after 08 how much better off would they have been to rent instead of buying in pre 08 and the majority will tell you they were better off buying. Negative equity only hits if you have to sell and anyone in dire straights has the "family home" protection in Ireland its like having a free throw at the dice when you think about it and although we go through peaks and troughs with regards to property prices one thing that historical data proves is that house prices in the main have trended upwards since buying property began. Look do whats right for yourself buy , dont buy its no skin off my nose but you need to clear about the facts

But the fact is if those restrictions were lifted property prices would rocket up again so they are undervalued. This is a fact

...again, do you realise the dangers of such an event, it would probably mean a catastrophic global crash, where effectively nobody would be safe from, yes the euro has some very serious issues, but going back simply isnt an option...... willing it on, well thats just weird and kinna messed up!

If they can save now while renting and can keep saving, I would be building up more cash at least for one or two more years, as it is undoubtedly the worst time in recent history the past year to buy. I also maintain that we haven't learned our lessons that lead to 08 so even though house prices have climbed back up the last 10 years, I don't think that has been a stable climb and could see the whole last twenty years of housing market growth being stripped away when the direction of the market changes (ie the State isn't redirecting cash into the market to inflate costs and institutionals are not dictating policy like they have been). With the Shinners in power the housing crisis will get worse before it gets better so I could see, in the absence of a global financial crisis, the trend for renting over buying to continue to dominate.

Further, the trends are for home owners to become the minority in the next decade or so which means that the majority of the population, who vote, will welcome a housing market decline or a crash as they will be renters who, quite simply, have no stake in a booming property market. This is where we are heading in 10 years from now which, for me, indicates that housing costs will be lower in 10 years than they are today as who holds the voting power will dictate policy and that is who will hold the voting power, unless something drastically changes.

And that is not even to touch the pension timebomb; in 25 years we will have a whole generation of people retiring who never were able to buy and will need to be provided for in terms of pensions and housing from when they stop working until they die. The solution to this timebomb is of course to raise funds to cover the costs of putting a safety net under these people but another solution is for housing costs to be gutted as that will make it far cheaper for the government to have to provide for these retiring renters (remembering that policy today is trending towards renters being the vast majority of the population in 25 years the way things are going).

Your attitude would be the majority attitude of small landlords in my experience and you are suffering the double-sided poking from the minority of small landlords giving the majority a bad rep as well as the government doing its best to shaft the small landlord (ie RPZ, drawn out eviction process). It's bizarre as the majority of property market participants are individuals and not corporations yet the individual gets shafted on the small landlord side and the renter side. Again, I don't see how it can be sustainable for the system not to work for the vast majority of participants in the market while the tiny minority (bad tenants, bad landlords and institutionals) benefit.

It is based on greed and an obsession with money that is just so toxic to people's interactions with others. I'm not wealthy but have never been in financial trouble and don't overextend myself so I don't feel corrupted by the pursuit of money above my happiness or above treating people fairly. I'm right in the middle when it comes to capitalism and politics, not extreme, just fair, so feel I can give a balanced observation on how things are working, not motivated by my own personal monetary gain from a certain system.

...so you want to potentially induce recessions, maybe even depressions, by raising rates! have a good luck at whats happening in russia with their rate hikes!

once again, by not allowing governments to run economies on larger deficits, this causes us to become more reliant on the private sector money supply, the credit supply, of which is already the larger money supply, which has a tendency to inflate asset prices, particularly in relation to property! this approach has now become too unstable, and too unsafe, and the only way to counteract this, is by encouraging governments to run bigger deficits, i.e. by increasing the public money supply. yes this too is problematic, but it is potentially far safer than running economies primarily on credit! the whole 'living within our means' is a fallacy, it has been adapted by primarily more conservative and free market ideologies, it in fact is dangerous, as governments can roll debts over indefinitely, until fully serviced, this is much harder to do with credit, leading us into our current situation of excessive private debt, so much so, central banks are now stuck in a situation of being unable to raise rates, due to this accumulation of private debt.... in order tfor economies to expand, we must also have an expanding money supply, but again, we have become over reliant on credit to do so...

putin is a tyrant, he has a strong dislike for western values, and has been doing everything to undermine it, on a psychological level, he more than likely has whats called a cluster b personality disorder, cluster b's relish in choas, they are also highly narcissistic, actions are carried out for personal gain, always!

absolutely, america has been engaging in imperial polices globally, including here in ireland, its main tools have been through financialisation, which is playing a critical role in our property markets, and its failures..... id argue this whole process has been in collapse for years now, particularly since 08, we dont know where this goes, but its clearly obvious, the world is becoming more and more unstable, in many critical ways, and going to war, aint helping!

Hmm, wouldn't a rise in interest rates potentially pull investors away from property and into things like bonds?

You would needs rate to rise by 2% or the yield on property to drop before investors start pulling away from property.

If/when rates rise in Europe it will be by 0.10% at a time and total only be about 0.5%

Exactly. That attitudes make me laugh. Its like "I wish we had a crash so I can buy a cheaper house". Except a crash typically means a recession, which is essentially the economists term for mass unemployment. Hard to buy a house when you don't have a job. Your job is only safe....until it isn't*.

Central banks have worked hard at avoiding a serious recession since the GFC, but the unintended consequences are profound. Hence why this thread is so lively.

* Excepting our highly productive civil servants.

Pension Fund / REIT / Instititional Investor / Overseas Investor / Vulture Fund / State / NGO

Take your pick.

Developer will take the certainty of group sales any day of the week if it has been funded by financing.

How does low rent now effect the sale price in the future?

If this time it was truly different then why is the property market not uncoupled and insulated from a wider economic shock? That was the whole issue with the fallout from 08.

For a true correction to happen tough decisions would need to be made.

A landlord is a business pure and simple. In my view there are a number of factors at play which is why we are were we are. The State not building as it did in the 50's & 60's. The States unwillingness to deal with anti social behaviour in these areas. The States unwillingness to deal with non payment of rents and mortgages and the lack of consequences for same.

If we had a crash unless supply were to outweigh demand then it makes no difference. All aspects are intertwined specifically work and housing as housing costs are the single biggest expenditure any household has (even in a normal functioning property sector) we will continue on our current trajectory until tough decisions are made.

Everybody can't get everything they want but there is an unfairness out there where some people are suffering more than others.